A Crisis Within A Crisis

As cases explode all over the world, financial markets are beginning to creak and groan. Reading the tea leaves, our concern is that SARS-COV-2 will kick off another financial/economic crisis as bad, or worse, than 2008.

Also, we spend a full minute and 34 seconds showing a video on how to put on and take of a face mask properly. Super easy. Much easier than trying to convince people they shouldn’t wear masks and then later unconvince them of that when face mask supplies catch back up.

The flatfooted response of US and European health officials has virtually assured a much worse-than-it-had-to-be outcome. A lack of testing and a lack of aggressive contact tracing are going to haunt…well…everyone affected.

Remember; it’s case, case, case, cluster, cluster, boom!

This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://peakprosperity.com/a-crisis-within-a-crisis/

The number of positive CV tests, morbidity, mortality, and ultimately recovered patients is a differential equation. For example, the number of new cases is exploding at a much higher rate than the death rate because there is the inherent 30-40 day (or so) lag period between the two. It will take several months to determine what the real numbers are because it will take quite a while to approach a steady state. As an estimate one can look backwards at the number of positive tests say 30 to 40 days previously(assuming mass testing from a reputable source such as South Korea) and compare that number with the number recovered and number of deaths. I think that data from South Korea will be very informative about 24-30 days after they initiated their mass testing.


Of course there are a lot of variables involved such as some locations possibly having more virulent and/or severe strains, possible populations genetic differences, differences in healthcare systems, etc.

Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) Tweeted:
In this clip, Trump:

  1. Denies WHO’s coronavirus death rate based on “hunch"
  2. Calls coronavirus “corona flu”
  3. Suggests it’s fine for people w/ Covid-19 to go to work
  4. Compares coronavirus to “the regular flu,” indicating he doesn’t get the difference https://t.co/uC9c03zX31 https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1235411751950221312?s=20

My 90-year old father-in-law forwarded this to us: what he received from the medical practice that cares for him. It barely alludes to pneumonia and is completely deceptive about how easily the virus is transmitted: “According to the CDC, people are thought to be most contagious when they are the sickest.” It doesn’t even discourage travel to Italy in any kind of serious language. Unbelievable, literally and figuratively. https://www.mdvip.com/about-mdvip/blog/what-you-need-know-about-coronavirus-or-covid-19?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTTJRNU1tVXhPRE01TURKayIsInQiOiJ3aE1sZE5oZGN0YjJJY25aaXRDQkJzMkRWb2ZUbE9zWUZCTG1YMHRYQm0zeUNnTGJLZDZGRnExa080OU5LUFB1RHZoOE1RMjl6clFtTnYzVTU4VVp1OHU2WGlPQ2Rndm5OdUVvclwvc3RHN25DTGdSbVBiaDE4MnJXbEZRSE5vWjEifQ%3D%3D

We only have four cases, all have originated from Italy and Iran.
The couple who visited Italy are the biggest worry. She flew domestically and he attended a concert while showing mild symptoms.
But we don’t need to worry. The Government is following the WHO guidelines, based on what China has told them (yes that is exactly what the Director of Health said).

  1. We don’t need face masks
  2. You only catch it from people with symptoms.
  3. You have to be in close contact.
  4. You have to wash your hands and not touch your face.
  5. It is only spread by droplets.
    I don’t get this hand washing thing; do they mean you might have it on your hands because someone coughed into your hand? No mention that surfaces may be contaminated and that is why you have to wash your hands.
    The thing that really bugs me is. None of the media are asking; if you can only catch it through close contact, how come all these people who went skiing in Northern Italy all got the virus?

Just FYI, it looked like your chart near the beginning was describing Inner Mongolia stats (a province in China), not Mongolia the nation just to the north of it. But regardless, everything you said about Mongolia’s (the nation) response to the virus is pretty accurate, and so far with a lot of testing we still have no confirmed cases (assuming the gov’t here is being honest anyway). We’re still feeling big economic impacts though.
Not sure why Inner Mongolia’s numbers are fairly modest. My guess lower overall population & population density combined with physical distance AND economic distance (less business travelers from outside areas) from the hot zones.

Food is stocked, gas mask on hand, I think this one is it. It’s not just Chris’ information but also John Campbell’s. It’s gonna be a pandemic. It can kill millions world-wide. It’s still not too late to prepare, you might not get a gas mask but you can still stock up on food in numerous locations in the United States. If your budget is limited, get food only.
If you are desperate for a mask, I would almost give up on finding N95’s or paper masks. Try to get a quality rubber or latex half face mask with the 3M brand with at least P100 protection. Hard-ware stores are likely empty of em’ in most locations but try looking at industrial supply websites, this applies to the USA only but other countries probably have similar websites. Get one or two sets of cartridges.
Otherwise, your at the mercy of Amazon with price gauging.

Hi Chris, I have attached a pdf for you. I worked out just today a data series that helps to visualize what is happening with the numbers posted around the world. This is not based on actual numbers, but on the latest presumed ratios. It is an exercise to see the relationships. The virus affects people over time. For example, there is a delay for exposure versus contagiousness, as well as healing time. I’m hearing that people who die from the virus or complications often do so by the second week of symptoms. However, for those that recover, it may take four weeks or more before they are considered fit, (providing there is no lasting lung damage). Graphing this shows the recovered lag far behind the “Boom”. Keep in mind the percentages are relative to the total infected, but the deaths need to be subtracted from the recovered in real time.
Also, the “Boom”, such as in China, seems out of proportion with the numbers in my charts. But keep in mind that the number of infected on day one need not have been ‘1’. Suppose it did come from bats. A ‘wet grocer’ takes a delivery of 50 bats that are ALL carriers. They sell them to 50 families, and on ‘day one’ you start with 200 infections or whatever. Do you see where that might lead? It makes sense to me anyway. I hope this helps.

Your equation put 40/135 for Korea. Shouldn’t that be 40/(40+135)? The forty is out of the TOTAL, not just the recovered. Thanks.

[caption id=“attachment_482641” align=“alignnone” width=“1668”] Letter from a Kaiser Nurse[/caption]

Thank you Chris for all the information and thoughtful analysis that you provide us every day. Thanks to you I feel my family is prepared for what may come in the next few weeks or months. I’m concerned about comments in the media that testing for Covid-19 is expensive, and on who is going to pay for it. I’m a scientist and I run PCRs all the time. IDT sells the primers for 500 tests for around $100. Adding the cost of the other reagents, the PCR machine and the tech time, the cost per test would be around $30-$40 (probably much much lower if done in large scale). I truly hope that hospitals, labs and insurance companies realize this, and for once, think about the common good and offer the test for free.

*** CHRIS, these survey results and the statement by a NorCal quarantined nurse would be great information to include in a your coronavirus video updates.
National Nurses United (NNU) union surveyed more than 6,500 nurses nationally (US) re: Covid-2019 preparedness at their places of employment. The survey results are troubling. Presently there are 80 nurses under Covid-2019 quarantine. Here is a statement by a quarantined nurse working at a northern California Kaiser facility: https://act.nationalnursesunited.org/page/-/files/graphics/NU-Quarantine-RN-press-conf-statement.pdf
Of survey respondents:

  • 44% report that their employer has provided them information about novel coronavirus and how to recognize and respond to possible cases.
  • 58% report that their employer has instituted travel/exposure history screening for all patients with fever and/or respiratory symptoms.
  • Only 63% of nurses report having access to N95 respirators on their units.
  • 27% have access to Powered Air Purifying Respirators (PAPRs).
  • Only 30% report that their employer has sufficient Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) stock on hand to protect staff if there is a rapid surge in patients with possible coronavirus infections. 38% don’t know.
  • Only 63% of nurses report having access to N95 respirators on their units.
  • Only 65% report having been trained on safely donning and doffing PPE in the previous year.
  • 66% have been fit tested in the previous year; 33% have not been fit tested in the previous year.
  • 29% report that there is a plan in place to isolate a patient with a possible novel coronavirus infection. 23% report they don’t know if there is a plan.
  • Only 14% report that their employer has an overflow plan to place additional, trained staff to enable safe care provision to patients on isolation for possible novel coronavirus. 43% report they don’t know.
  • Only 19% report that their employer has a policy to address employees with suspected or known exposure to novel coronavirus. 43% don’t know.
    NNU Press Conference on Covid-2019 Preparedness (3/5/20), video
    NNU Covid-2019 Survey Results
    Selection of Protective PPE for Nurses and Other Health Care Workers Caring for Patients with COVID-19

Watching john Campbell blog most recent, he trusts bureaucratic data at face value! Praises Chinese containment as effective. Well, that to me is big strike on his credibility. I trust NOTHING out of china.

Paracetamol on prescription (no charge) is now being rationed.

The Greek numbers are their own citizens. See www.ekathimerini.com for accurate information.
Also, the West Bank of Palestine is NOT heavily populated. You are thinking of the Gaza Strip, which is a geographically separate area on the coast, which has zero sewage treatment and the worst crowding in the world.

The NZ ministry of health are also implying that because two children of someone who tested positive for CoVid-19 have not shown symptoms, other children at the school are not at risk (the children of the confirmed case are in home isolation now). This appears to suggest that asymptomatic transmission is not possible, so we continue to get bad advice from those we look to for good advice.
Regarding face masks, it’s pretty hard to find any but my understanding is that unless you have an underlying respiratory condition contracting the virus is extremely unlikely to be serious. Should masks be prioritised for those with such a condition and for those who have tested positive or who have symptoms which may be due to the virus? In the latter cases, the masks would help avoid spreading the virus.

"Preliminary results from more than 1,000 nurses in California are worrisome:

  • Only 27 percent report that there is a plan in place to isolate a patient with a possible novel coronavirus infection. 47 percent report they don’t know if there is a plan.
  • Only 73 percent report that they have access to N95 respirators on their units;
  • 47 percent report access to powered air purifying respirators (PAPRs) on their units.
  • Only 27 percent report that their employer has sufficient personal protective equipment (PPE) stock on hand to protect staff if there is a rapid surge in patients with possible coronavirus infections; 44 percent don’t know."
    Proposed closure of Daly City, California hospital, press conference on 3/6/20
    “Verity Health System, the current operator of Seton, is pushing to close the hospital within days… Earlier this year, Verity abruptly shut down one of the oldest hospitals in downtown Los Angeles, stranding patients and the community.”
    “California Gov. Gavin Newsom on Wednesday declared a state of emergency after the first death of a patient infected with the virus which has already sickened at least 50 people in 12 counties across the state, including San Mateo County.
    Tens of thousands of San Mateo and San Francisco residents rely on Seton for emergency care. In 2018 alone, Seton accounted for over 25,000 ER visits, and other hospitals in the region are already over stressed, and often on diversion.
    “Amidst a major pandemic, we must come together to stop this unconscionable closure which could pose a frightening threat to our community and put patient lives in danger,” said Michelle Kubato, a Medical/Surgical RN at Seton.”’

Its something I just realized, this is the first global threat that faces the combined interconnective processing power of the Internet. SARS didn’t, MERS didn’t.
Imagine if during the Black Plague healers in every village across Europe could access up to date info on the situation, health care options and progression data. The example of the information sharing of Peak Prosperity shows what can be done with the right group of people.
We can beat this thing.

I went in to a Starbucks that was pretty much empty this evening. So no need for a mask I thought. I did put on my gloves though since I am practicing not touching door handles, ATM’s, Interact machines and counter tops. Anyway the barista saw my sandwich gloves when I was paying for the coffee and actually started to lecture me. He and the other worker were making rolling eyes at each other while I paid because didn’t I know you can only get infected by droplets from people coughing on you? Like what am I an idiot or something? So I said well maybe you can get infected from touching surfaces that sick people who had been coughing touched before arrival. And then he launches into a highly informative education program for me about the ONLY way to get infected was coughing and maybe it looks a little paranoid to be wearing plastic gloves. I wish I had asked him if that was official company policy but I was so surprised I just took my coffee and left. Good grief. I did not even bother to correct them since they were so certain of themselves. Nothing would have gotten through. Those types. You all know what I mean. LOL
25 year olds know EVERYTHING. Hahahaha

Imagine you are an owner of a hospital facing a pandemic. You are going to see huge costs with little or no chance you may be able to recover them. You’ll face law suits no matter what treatment decisions you make as the dead’s survivors second guess you and want compensation. The government won’t help and local authorities may actually make things worse.
Close it, and you being a rich executive can always go to your gated community and wait out the storm, getting bonus checks for the way you protected shareholder value.