A Crisis Within A Crisis

Agree, Jo, from another Kiwi. NZ media are doing a shocking job covering this virus from just plain wrong info to hype stories - you’d think all they care about are the clicks not the public. I fear our government are blindly just blindly following “guidelines” with an added typical kiwi, keep it low-key, it’s not that bad, it’ll work out attitude. I work for a large government organisation and last week a woman came to work with a really “minging” (bad) cold and spent three days at her desk behind me coughing and hacking away until she called in sick on the Thursday. While I knew it was just a cold, not one manager told her to go home and get some rest or even asked her to work from home. That’s why I think we’re going to be F’ed coming into winter. Just that NZ attitude that you have to keep on working no matter how bad you feel. It was gross. At least I feel slightly ahead of the pack keeping up with the info from this site.

You have to know how to trust, not just who to trust when. Even obviously false data can be trusted; but you have to know how.
For example:
I have a unicorn at home.
This is obviously a lie. However, you can now trust that i am not above telling obvious lies. I have told an obvious lie, therefor, i am capable of telling obvious lies. You can trust that i am capable of telling obvious lies. Even when the data, the lie, is clearly a false statement.
We can apply this to the Chinese numbers as well.
For example: We can trust that none of the data can be trusted. This is in itself, trust worthy data. If you know everything is a lie, you can treat everything as a lie. Manipulation is only hard to detect if the lie is subtle; after all, nobody in their right mind is going to believe i have a unicorn at home.
So the question then becomes: How big is the lie?
Well. Obviously, the more to lose, the more incentive there is to lie. Humans are Humans after all, once the incentive to lie exceeds the incentive to tell the truth, they will lie. There are exceptions, yes, but the bigger the lie, the more people it involves, the less exceptions there will be.
So if we look at different provinces in China; then we can conclude without a shadow of a doubt, the incentive to lie is largest in Hubei. Where in other provinces people might get mad out of lost income, in Hubei it is because of lost lives, the things that generally tend to start revolutions.
From this we can easily draw a couple of conclusions:
1a. China lies across all provinces equally,
1b. China lies more about Hubei then anywhere else,
2. China is not telling the truth anywhere as it has no incentive to.
Logically; we can trust the ratio of confirmed cases of other provinces compared to Hubei IF you limit yourself to the question: Is the virus spreading faster in Europe then in China?
You can trust that the ratio of lies is going to be either equal between provinces or the lies are bigger in Hubei. Therefor, the number in surrounding provinces is likely to be lower (AKA lied about less) then in Hubei (AKA lied about more).
Just to show it in numbers as it might be easier to understand:
1a. (67500x10) cases in Hubei vs (245x10) in nextdoor Shaanxi.
1b. (67500x15) cases in Hubei vs (245x10) in nextdoor Shaanxi.
What will not happen:
1c. (67500x5) cases in Hubei vs (245x10) in nextdoor Shaanxi.
I think anybody can “feel” this one being off, without even thinking about it logically.
So if you then compare that spread against the italian numbers vs the Netherlands (which is a few countries over, but considering Shengen and geographical locations, it is still a valid comparison):
3858 italian cases vs 82 dutch cases.
For this example; we’re just going to assume that the EU is telling the truth. They aren’t, because of lack of testing, but that in itself makes the numbers of people they have tested, valid. AKA if you can trust a pathelogical liar to always lie in the same way, if he is lying in a different way, he is telling the truth to confuse you into believing the lies.
If we assume 1a, you don’t even need to multiply the Chinese numbers, because the Ratio between them (100vs10 or 1000vs100) stays the same. Meanwhile, 1a is the best assumption to make, as 1b only makes the situation worse:
1a. 67500/245 = ~275 times more cases in Hubei then Shaanxi.
1b. (67500x15)/(245x10)= 413 times more cases in Hubei then Shaanxi
3858/82 = 47 times more cases in Italy then in the Netherlands.
So. Even using data which is obviously false, you can still extract Truth you can Trust, if you know how to trust and what to trust when. As you can clearly see, even consistently assuming all Chinese data is false can lead to a logically True and Trustworthy conclusion: That the Italian strain is far more virulent then the Hubei one.
Obviously just One calculation is just a guess. An indicator of something that might be wrong. But if you follow the same path of logic and trust, and continue to run the same calculations over and over again (for example, comparing Guangdong, the 2nd hardest hit province with the first, with Italy and “no where near the 2nd hardest hit province the Netherlands”, you still get a 50 times vs 47 times number).
And in this case, Size matters. Reducto Ad Absurdum. We can all agree the 1c. logical statement is silly. So we run it anyway:
(67500x5) cases in Hubei vs (245x10) in nextdoor Shaanxi = 138 times.
If a logical statement which by your own admission is absurd, is >less severe< then a statement you know to be true (AKA no lies in the italian data or dutch data of confirmed cases), that logically confirms something is amiss.
People aren’t very creative, especially not giant bureaucracies. You can use simple logic and reason to pierce the communist (and capitalist) lies. In fact; the more they lie the easier it is, as it establishes a pattern of lies: what they will and won’t lie about.
As for John Campbell i wouldn’t knock a good source while you still have it. That could also end at any given time. What do you think will happen when Trump declares a state of martial law to combat this after infections grow way outta hand, and really starts censoring the internet through facebook, twitter, youtube etc…

There’s several problems with the strain analysis in the recent study:

  1. I’m not sure the sample of tests in GISAID are a random sampling from the “infected population” - in fact there are very few tests in China since early February
  2. Infection spread should result in “concentration” of certain strains at least temporarily - especially if those areas have lax controls.
  3. there did not appear to be a “morbidity” analysis completed
  4. the sample sizes were too small for the conclusions they were making

The corona virus outbreak may be the last straw for a shaky Italian financial system. If it goes, the the EU has big troubles.

First case reported in the high country of Colorado in Summit County, home to numerous ski resorts. Hardly a surprise given the amount of people traveling here for vacations. I thought maybe it would be a little later. First case is a man in his 30s who traveled to Italy in mid February. Governor Polis is towing the usual line; don’t panic, no way of spreading when asypmtomatic, etc. Seems to be a carefully crafted PR release with lots of unknowns and vagueness. This stinks of a situation that is out of their control. I live along the I70 corridor the next county over and spoke with a friend today who works at the hospital here who said that there was a significant shift today in mood amongst the higher up doctors with talk about how they will prevent spread. The economy here has been stronger than many other areas of the US since the Great Financial Crisis but will be totally toast if the economic onslaught continues with respect to tourism. https://www.vaildaily.com/news/colorados-first-coronavirus-case-confirmed-in-summit-county/

Lots of discussion here and around the web about international economic effects of covid19, supply chain disruptions, hits to tourism etc.
But China has been trying to transition itself into a western style consumer economy lately. How are those Chinese consumers doing? Those considered middle class by relative standards, and the workers that support those service businesses? Good article today from scmp, I thought it was especially interesting in light of the recent podcast with Charles Hugh smith on Chinese domestic political outcomes:

You took the coffee???
And drank it? From a cup handled by the barista that doesn’t believe diseases can be passed on by hand???
You sir or madam, are a very brave … umm… something.

At about the 22-minute mark in this National Nurses United (NNU) press conference the speakers references relaxed (and unsafe) guidance from CDC re: health care personnel (HCP) exposed to a known Covid-2019 patient. Their revised guidance allows exposed but asymptomatic health care workers to continue to work, care for patients until the health care workers become symptomatic. https://www.nationalnursesunited.org/covid-19
This appears to be the guidance referenced by the NNU representative from the CDC website, here. (dated 3/4/20)
Excerpt: “Facilities could consider allowing asymptomatic HCP who have had an exposure to a COVID-19 patient to continue to work after consultation with their occupational health program…Facilities could have exposed HCP wear a facemask while at work for the 14 days after the exposure event if there is a sufficient supply of facemasks.”
This interim guidance also made optional monitoring and reporting of exposed HCP; and “simplified” risk exposure categories.
Excerpt summary of changes made:
“* Removed requirement under “self-monitoring with delegated supervision” for healthcare facilities to actively verify absence of fever and respiratory symptoms when healthcare personnel (HCP) report for work. This is now optional.
* Simplified risk exposure categories based on most common scenarios with focus on presence/absence of source control measures, use of personal protective equipment (PPE) by HCP, and degree of contact with the patient (i.e., prolonged versus brief).”
If you make optional monitoring and you relax the definitions of “risk” then these exposed HCP can continue to work while infected, and possibly infecting HCP and patients. This also minimizes liability and costs for the health care facilities, insurers, etc. No surprise that the HCP and patients will bear the brunt of these relaxed guidelines.
I also found CDC guidance for “Strategies for Optimizing N95 Respirators” here; with subpages for conventional, contingency and crisis capacity to deal with N95 shortages.
Contingency capacity includes administrative controls such as reducing hospital length of stays for Covid-2019 patients; PPE contingency measures include using N95 respirators beyond their shelf life for training and fit testing, extended use and re-use of N95 respirators. They provide additional guidance on re-use of N95 respirators here. CDC defines “extended” and “re-use” or respirators as follows:
Extended use refers to the practice of wearing the same N95 respirator for repeated close contact encounters with several patients, without removing the respirator between patient encounters.”
"Reuse refers to the practice of using the same N95 respirator for multiple encounters with patients but removing it (‘doffing’) after each encounter. The respirator is stored in between encounters to be put on again (‘donned’) prior to the next encounter with a patient. "
CDC also provides this guidance document re: risks of extended and reuse of respirators here. I encourage PP members to read through these pages on extended and re-use of respirators. I plan on using this information to assess my risk in health care settings as well with prudently and safely managing my own supply of respirators.

There was a protein from Wuhan
That jumped from a bat to a man.
Within the infected
The protein deflected
To R naught of 4 shit did fan

My daughter works for MSD handling WINZ grants. They have people coming in who are supposed to be 14 day self quarantine, but because they have been out of the country their pensions have stopped and they have to report in person to get them restarted. Finally on Tuesday they have been told they can refuse to see them. Plus tonight we hear many doctors have not been sent the necessary protective clothing to see people who think they may be affected.
What have they been doing for the past 6 weeks?

It seems as the US bashes iran about its numbers ( not that they are anyone to point fingers or speak on numbers of accuracy ) The iranians are in the camp that this is a US bio weapon. We have heard this from china and russia as well. I am not saying this was a deliberate attack - but I would not be surprised in the least - and pretty much an in the theory that someone was playing around with sars type virus and it was leaked one way or another. Mostly likely the science was leaked or a sample was shared illegally to a lab that was not its originator. - Francis Boyle states this as pretty much matter of fact - I am betting he has insider information.
If it is determined that this was a bio-weapon and any country that does bio engineering on this virus for weaponization and does not fess up - those who are responsible should be subject to execution. To be honest, i was think any country that engages in such bio engineering activity for weaponized biologicals should be removed from power. I really can’t believe it should be allowed at all. And I am sure the US does more than the rest of the world combined.

Pay-backs a bitch!

I really thought the EU and Australia and new zealand were much more progessive in health care than the US. But it seems they all copied the US CDC in stating the infectiousness of Cov 19. Yes, that makes no sense when they say this does not live on surfaces and you cannot catch it by contact surfaces just close contact with infected people… But wash your hands - because you were covering the mouths of infected people… without contact with them. so yeah… double talk seriously.

China reports no new cases in Hubei province over the last 24 hours. Can they possibly control information that much, if this is a lie?

I’m not sure that Chris’s use of a different name for the virus from the name used in media reports helps the message. The WHO might be useless over this but CoVid-19 is the name that gets used most often in news reports (apart from “coronavirus”), so why not just go with it. For those who come to these reports without having seen earlier videos, they might pass over them or be confused.

The gov’t here in Mongolia is, for the most part, a clown-show. Yet somehow they are running circles around my home country the USA, the richest country in the world. Closing high-risk air routes, taking extra precautions with remaining functioning air routes, immediate isolation of high-risk individuals, and almost immediate testing (as in results in under 24-hours). If our gov’t here is a clown-show, then that makes the US gov’t that monkey at the zoo that flings its poo… ?
(the article’s translation is a little clunky, but you get the general gist that they’re not taking chances here)
Berlin-Ulaanbaatar flights are separated by passengers
Passengers on the OM-136 Berlin-Moscow-Ulaanbaatar flight were separated today (2020.3.6/ by the National Center for Infectious Diseases). The flight was attended by 15 Mongolian nationals from Italy, Korea, Japan and Austria, where the new coronavirus infection centered. Specifically, eight were from Korea, one from Japan, two from Austria and four from Italy. Two out of the 15 civilians were referred to the NSAID for symptoms of new coronovirus infection, such as chest and throat pain. Details will be provided at a press conference at 11am.

“Containment tents” funded by FEMA outside San Jose hospital:

Yes you are absolutely right Jo. There is certainly a pattern of minimization of the dangers. “The chances of a community level transmission is low” according to the director general of health yesterday. I think kiwis are among the most complacent people in the world. It partly comes from geographical isolation and our practical abilities to get by. She’ll be right mate.
Another key factor is that most here are clueless about limits to growth as they don’t experience this directly due to our relatively modest population. Been to Auckland lately and seen the huge development projects underway everywhere. The context of where we are in the growth story globally is simply not understood.
Rolandumcallen - re Trump , he could easily catch this. He meets lots of people and he’ll be too arrogant and too vain to wear a mask. And he’s in a demographic where the illness could be quite problematical

Employee at San Diego AT&T store tests positive for coronavirus
The employee traveled to Italy. The six stores temporarily closed for deep cleaning are located in Chula Vista, Escondido, San Marcos, Oceanside, National City and Vista. Affected employees are under home quarantine.

Just in - new super skinny PPE ? Ready for anything now