A Market Crash AND High Inflation?

News & Current Events Public News & Current Events
,
21

‘The future’?

'We' have ten years?

“ . . . our best estimate is that the net energy

33:33 per barrel available for the global

33:36 economy was about eight percent

33:38 and that in over the next few years it

33:42 will go down to zero percent

33:44 uh best estimate at the moment is that

33:46 actually the

33:47 per average barrel of sweet crude

33:51 uh we had the zero percent around 2022

33:56 but there are ways and means of

33:58 extending that so to be on the safe side

34:00 here on our diagram

34:02 we say that zero percent is definitely

34:05 around 2030 . . .

we

34:43 need net energy from oil and [if] it goes

34:46 down to zero

34:48 uh well we have collapsed not just

34:50 collapse of the oil industry

34:52 we have collapsed globally of the global

34:54 industrial civilization this is what we

34:56 are looking at at the moment . . . “

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxinAu8ORxM&feature=emb_logo

22

>>> Can a market crash cause banks to become insolvent?
If you can find it, read about the bail out of LTCM in 1998.
Jim Rickards was involved, as was a 300 ton naked short in Gold position, that needed to be bailed out.
Given that the Bank of England started selling off their Gold, for a ridiculously low price, in 1999, was there a connection between the LTCM bail out and the Bank of England 1999-2001 Gold sales ?

23

Hello Plantfortomorrow,
You asked, “how in hell will we get Inflation after everything has been destroyed in half and no one has any cash, a job and who will supply the Demand in anything when the food lines reach many millions of Good Folks?” You might be interested in checking out either Mike Maloney’s Hidden Secrets of Money video series or his guide to precious metals investing. In this works he argues that we will first have a deflationary crash which will then be followed by an overreaction in the government printing presses, which will then create hyperinflation.

24

Generally, it is a crash in the banks that causes the market crash. Consider Creditanstalt in Austria before the Great Depression ( http://centraleuropeaneconomicandsocialhistory.com/the-great-depression-credit-anstalt-crisis-1931) and the failure of US Banks in our coubtry.

25

Paul showed the way that runaway inflation can be crushed. You simply have to raise interest rates to high enough levels. Leaders just have to have the guts to do it.
Building a renewable energy infrastructure is a massive industrial project. If we do it, we will create lots of inflation. Market interest rates are starting to rise to factor in this reality. I am assuming that they will rise to a point eventually that will cause market adjustments. ‘Be prepared!”

26

I remember, back in the day, some friends of mine got financially mauled by the fall in bond prices. I dusted off my “WIN” button and plugged along.

"WIN" buttons immediately became objects of ridicule; skeptics wore the buttons upside down, explaining that "NIM" stood for "No Immediate Miracles," "Nonstop Inflation Merry-go-round," or "Need Immediate Money." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whip_inflation_now
Time for a new one. How 'bout "I'm a GMO" to go with the "I Voted" sticker?
27

I remember vividly. My first home mortgage was 14%.
The problem now, in my opinion, is that the fed does not have that choice on the table. The rise in rates would make the national debt not serviceable in short order.
Another thing that is never talked about, is rising mortgage interest rates. That would crush home values, which seem to be in a bubble. The fall in property tax values would be death knell for most municipalities which, even before the pandemic, were in dire straights. After a year of dramatically reduced sales tax revenues, many of these are ticking time bombs.
Guts or not, I just don’t see how rates can be raised like they were by Mr. Volcker. Our money changers have painted us into a corner.

28

Yes, I remember them.
We, too, had a 13% mortgage at the time.

But, wait.

If you flip over a GMO button, does it become an
Oh, What Gives ?? button ?

If so, I’m in. :slight_smile:

29

You have to be tough.

30

“I remember, back in the day, some friends of mine got financially mauled by the fall in bond prices.”
But then, they bought stocks and are rich today. And they might have to do it again. Buy the big dips.

31

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/russias-proposed-log-export-ban-002400597.html

32

Well Folks, a 30 to 60% drop in all things economy is massively Deflationary and then to think we will have a massive turn around to Inflation or Hyperinflation is not going to happen overnight. So much destruction in place that to get any Inflation will take a lot longer than a couple of months or years even. It’s not easy to turn an economy the size of the US around on a dime nor the rest of the World because they all will have to face the music too. It will take so much longer than that.

No matter who is trotted out here. I think for balance sake we should get some people on that has a different story. Perhaps some experts on Modern Monetary Theory. Something is wrong when we have already spent and will spend 10 or more trillions trying to get some inflation and none has really arrived. Yes, the Inflation now is higher than is reported but the confidence in the market says no one is all that concerned and the market is a forward looking specialist. The true experts honestly. The only one that really matters.

I guess for me I will need something, anything that kicks off all this Inflation the one sided experts have talked about here for some time, like a decade plus now. Mike Maloney, of who I have done extensive research and respect him on all this stuff which is now my craft has NOT been right. His arguments are compelling but had I followed his advice I would have lost so much cash as the market went from 666 to 3800 and probably 4500 or more near term. I can now buy way more Gold than at any point in my life and still was able to get out of debt, build a home and provide all that I needed for my family to be self sufficient. It’s FU money and I would not have been so fortunate had I listened to one of them experts.

The highs in Gold I believe happened in 2009 and haven’t made a dime more since then. We pride ourselves here on the truth in numbers and data and since 2009 the economy made Gold stand still while it went and made all of us who played a lifetime worth of wealth. That’s the truth and the data proves this up.

So, I’ll stick with the data that matters and with those in control because they have risen all boats and we’re still contemplating Deflation and Hyperinflation. This is just the truth and talk, talking, and talking about how great Gold is doesn’t make it a smart investment today.

Now, in saying this I own a nice stake in Gold and Silver because of my earnings and as a hedge because I had the cash to do so, it’s just smart. Now, I have all concerns hedged and that is a terrific feeling and the Mike Maloney’s of this world should have spoken of this too as they talked of a balanced portfolio. It would have shown his character and integrity better. That perhaps he’s going to be wrong for 10 years or so because he just can’t honestly say what’s going to happen, sure some day but when? Just like all the other experts. I go with the Fed because if you bet against the Fed you do so at your own peril. I didn’t and I am humbly glad I didn’t.

Now, we are heading into as close a no brainer as there is and that’s the fact oil has gone through the roof and will continue it’s glorious ride upward. I am only focused on this commodity at this moment, Natural Gas as well. If you do not believe Demand for oil is heading higher then I can’t tell you anything. With every 1 million plus vaccines shots given each day is actually OIL DEMAND, and easy pickens. The capex NOT spent for a long, long time will most certainly effect the Supply no matter what Demand does and so share prices are going to explode as the Supply issue will cause oil to rise per barrel and with every dollar it rises the company’s are going to make a lot of free cash flow witch will go to the investors because the oil company’s are determined not to grow oil production as the investor are warning them if you want my investment cash then SHOW ME THE MONAYYY! Buy OIL Folks, leave Gold at $1800 an oz because it won’t love you like oils and N.Gas is going to love you. Better be quick too because if Art Berman is right the production numbers will make his argument valid sometime in April. If Art is right about the production numbers coming in at 5 million barrels a day then I will, we could, double by the time June’s driving season begins then watch the pent up Demand really take oil higher and the company’s profits with them.
Don’t forget the falling dollar, that will happen and is a huge tailwind for OIL as well!
I wish you all well Folks and just know, this year will be one for the ages for the OIL and Natural Gas market and I doubt seriously we crash 60%, not this year but, I will be watching and my trailing stops will get me out of trouble if the market does in fact go terribly bad.
I’m not too greedy of a person either and have a lot of life to live so will not stay in because of pride or biases. A bird in the hand is better than 2 in the bush and I am happy whenever I bank profits.
I admit I could be completely wrong about how this all turns out so understand this is my opinion and I don’t care how you good Folks think about my thoughts, in a respectful way of course. I am however going to do exactly what I said until I don’t. Do not feel bad for me if I’m wrong or terribly happy for me if I’m right. All that matters is on Me. I have no doubts I am correct and I will know when I know. Be Good, Be Healthy and I wish you Folks all good things in life, I truly do. Peace BOB 

33

May need to convert all of that debt to equity