Fantastic literary prose by JHK!
"But the idea of a human society without money leaves you either up a baobab tree on the paleolithic savannah, or in some sort of Ray Kurzweil techno-narcissistic masturbation fantasy multiverse with no relation to the organic doings on planet earth."
I subscribe to Tainter's definition of collapse, which is a societal "reset" to a lower level of energy and complexity due to diminishing returns on increased complexity eventually turning negative (an inflection point at which we've either arrived or are very close to). The "collapse" of a currency, while certainly disruptive (and even catastrophic to those living through it), is not the same thing as a societal collapse. Our (US) currency has gone through countless "collapses" and reorganizations throughout the entirety of our history, including the colonial period. In each instance, people were wiped out, wealth consolidated, and recovery occurred within a relatively short period of time. Actual collapses of complex civilizations, on the other hand, take a long time to play out.I think that the definition of "wealth" offered by Schumacher, and expanded on by Greer, can prove useful here. Schumacher defined primary wealth as the natural resources and ecosystem services provided by the earth, and secondary wealth as products and services created by applying human labor and energy to primary wealth. Greer expanded this by defining tertiary wealth as financial instruments that are ultimately dependent upon the primary and secondary forms of wealth.
We currently live in a time where tertiary wealth has become increasingly disconnected from primary and secondary wealth. And I think that your focus on the financial side of things here is an example of that disconnect. I don't say this to somehow call you out, but rather to highlight just how pervasive this way of thinking is in our society, that people who are pretty switched on compared to the general populace still look at events through this deceptive lens.
Now, I readily admit that I find uncertainty around the energy "E" to be a much more credible argument regarding societal collapse. In fact, it's one that I go back-and-forth myself on. I've researched peak oil since around 2001 and can't discount the idea of falling off the energy cliff in the more near future.
Personally I think we've been in various stages of collapse since the late 19th or early 20th century. Social collapse started when the automobile took hold over mass society and the increased mobility began to tear apart community life (see Illich, "Energy and Equity"). Cultural collapse really took off in earnest when we substituted mass consumer culture for actual culture. Economic collapse started in the late 1960s or early 1970s as our more fixed monetary system ran up against the limits to growth, and was only staved off when we started using debt leverage in earnest to finance continually growing standards-of-living while simultaneously throwing people under the bus (the working class, primarily) in order to support that growth for a shrinking number of people. And I think it's pretty clear to all of us that the signs of energy and environmental collapse are strikingly clear to anyone who just takes the time to look.
So, in summary, I've found the long grind of collapse to be a more convincing argument over the rapid shock collapse. But I hold out the possibility that I could be completely wrong and that this time we're too far up the energy curve to allow collapse to play out over a longer period. The only thing that IS certain is that collapse is not a process that's particularly pleasant to go through.
This is how I see things too. A decades long process of humanity adjusting to doing less with less.
[quote=ScottT]This is how I see things too. A decades long process of humanity adjusting to doing less with less.
[/quote]
I see this as possibly a perpetual period of adjustment…or at least many centuries long…in other words, as far as I am personally concerned, it's a permanent condition.
While i agree with the permanence once it starts going down the darkside of the curve, i also believe the downside curve is very optimistic. I think it will go down alot faster than that. I stand by my prediction that Saudi will decline rapidly in a couple of years. They have massively overproduced for decades. The Us boom is basically a lie and very short term, i doubt they can even profit from the tarsands without $150-200 oil, and since everyone lies constantly about their reserves, you can easily believe they are lower than advertised.
We arent approaching peak oil, were 8 years past it. It took 100 years to get to half. It will take only 25 more to hit the bottom for the average person. Not 150. The rich will always have access to oil whether it comes from the ground or from a cornfield. Even 25 might be optimistic.
CAH, there are a few factors that have me concerned about fast collapse rather than a slow one like previous instances:
My fear is that the world is just not prepared for a global financial collapse and is very delicately balanced on highly manipulated markets right now; things could turn ugly. But, that's just me being a doomer. Maybe things will sort themselves out.
I actually think that Russia and China will be ok at least for a while. Russia will become the New America and it will sustain the Chinese manufacturing as long as the Russian and Iran oil reserves hold out.
They dont need the western world as much as people think they do. They have their own middle class and a rising Russian middle class and a number of other countries in the Brics.
the writing is on the wall for the west. Collapse wont be equal everywhere, and it will be hardest on those places that dont have their own resources like america and europe. 200 years of theft from the rest of the world is coming to a close.
and raise you one military industrial complex,american. it won't go off to the edge of the playground alone.
Collapse? Madge, you're soaking in it. Remember that commercial? It's here. The developed first world nations are slowly starting to resemble third world countries with expectations managed downward.
If Putin is able to reveal to the world that the U.S. will only push so far, the perception of 'American super power' changes. It is vital to the reserve currency that the U.S be able to persevere through intimidation, proxy wars and trade agreements that provide it with leverage. Currently, all of these intersecting and supporting elements are being twisted and shaken up. Big Oil requires reliable bullying in order to operate, successfully and the reserve dollar needs oil to back it.
Instead of hunkering down waiting for a collapse, maybe we should be looking forward to 'the Release' from the dark Gnostic prison of Oil Hell. It could spur a new renaissance in environmental science, in global education for women–etc…
We are in collapse NOW. A reset is in the offing. It might just be an improvement.
Hi All,
Haven't visited here for a while, but it seems the discussion remains familiar. In my own "reality", friends and family continue their lives of wanting more, while their kids, most now in their late teens, save and buy cars, study for endeavours that may or may not exist in twenty years, and so on… Much like we did.
I'll be fifty next year, still happily married, still adore my own teenagers, still living in middle-class Melbourne, Australia. If I sold my motorbike and car tomorrow, I'd be debt free (except for those pesky bills of course :)). If it weren't for Camp Doomer, where a slow decline to a cliff seems a certainty, I'd say I was pretty content. But it's like living in quicksand, though not quite. "Am I crazy"? Guess it depends how you define crazy.
Like all forums, this is a place for those to chat amongst themselves, feel a little better, few as we are. But we must remember we are like Martians; who's there to listen? We have as much chance of changing the minds of (my) fellow Joes and Janes as demonstrating to Christians (or other) that God doesn't exist. We are truly on our own… This sounds a little sad, but perhaps it's also something to take comfort in; focuses one's thought, even gives one a heightened sense of purpose (and let's face it, there really isn't a lot of genuine purpose to life).
Enjoy as much as you dare and good luck to all.
Cheers,
Matt Blain
Nervous Nelly, my take on Free NL's statement is rural-to-urban migration patterns, currently typified in China, but it's occurring elsewhere too e.g. Bangladesh. China will move at least one quarter of a billion people to urban locations over the next decade or so.
Want to reclaim land for mass food production to feed a growing population? Build megacities and move rural dwellers to them (witness the extraordinary creation of these in China recently, a lot of which are still lying empty). Once moved and disenfranchised, these ex-rural people can be better controlled (as Free NL observed), particularly if you're controlling job creation (and therefore incomes). They're beholden to the government because they've been deprived of alternatives.
The consequences of this policy are unknown, since something of this scale has never been executed. Maybe the Chinese have a grand plan for what to do with millions of people who - depending on the success of future growth - are potentially unemployed (or unemployable), hungry, frustrated, out of their depth in a new environment. Whatever their solution(s), it's easier to deal with a big herd than a scared, scattered fragment.
I understand that our resources might last a long time (relatively speaking) and that the overall global grind down could take sometime, extending beyond our lifetimes.
But it seems an economic collapse could the the big event we have been planning for…I imagine this scenario:
The the world reaches a point where the U.S. can no longer export it's inflation in return for a higher standard of living. The economy in the U.S. tanks. And here's where it gets crazy - the U.S. can't make good on it's promises and all the people who are living on the government dole go crazy and that's where we have our crisis. People have become so accustomed to this that they can see no other way of living.
That's what I'm planning for - the day when the free gravy train stops and reality hits and those who were enjoying this free ride get booted off and are very cranky about it.
What does everyone else thing about this? Or is everyone else just planning for the long slow grind down as resources run out? I think there will be some serious discontent as a result of this.
Perhaps I am wrong, and the collapse is already in progress, as some seem to think, but if it is, it is an incomplete one. What I suspect will happen is that populations will lose faith in their fiat currencies to the point where they refuse to accept them as reward for services rendered or as payment for goods purchased.
Let’s face it, the lack of criminal proceedings brought against bankers who have laundered drug money and fiddled exchange rates etc. for their own personal gain can only mean that the governments are on their side, especially in the U.K. Not only that, but also we have all had to witness these same bankers reward themselves with seven figure bonuses for failing so badly that they had to be bailed out at our expense. How long before people declare that ‘enough is enough’?
There is more: with so many people doing two, three, or even more, jobs in order to make ends meet, and then being offered worthless little pieces of cotton reinforced paper as payment for their labour, how long will it be before there is a mood of revolution in the air and people refuse to work for effectively nothing? I imagine that a break from working all the hours God sends would be very attractive in its own right.
The problem for society at large is that these people do work that, despite the pittance that it usually attracts, is actually important, unlike that of so many others, such as advertising executives, bankers, film actors etc. etc. etc. Once the shelves don’t get stacked because the shelf stackers have stopped shelf stacking, or the delivery driver has declined to deliver the goods destined for those self-same shelves, it will not be long before we see a real collapse, i.e. one that you can get your teeth into.
How long before energy supply workers join in the fun and the lights go out? Think of all those lovely computers at the trading desks not even capable of low frequency trading let alone the high frequency stuff they were purchased for so that they could rob our pension funds little by little! How long before the water supply dries up, and with it the ability to cook a meal or flush the toilet? Of course, these are only minor inconveniences. It goes without saying that the collapse will only really go into top gear when we can no longer buy a Starbucks coffee.
There is an upside to all of this, believe it or not. There are grounds for arguing that climate change is now set upon a course where there are so many positive feedbacks now in operation that the only way we can hope to provide a chance for our descendants to survive is for there to be a complete economic collapse, with all that that implies; see Nature Bats Last http://guymcpherson.com/2013/01/climate-change-summary-and-update/
Perhaps I am wrong, and the collapse is already in progress, as some seem to think, but if it is, it is an incomplete one. What I suspect will happen is that populations will lose faith in their fiat currencies to the point where they refuse to accept them as reward for services rendered or as payment for goods purchased.
Let’s face it, the lack of criminal proceedings brought against bankers who have laundered drug money and fiddled exchange rates etc. for their own personal gain can only mean that the governments are on their side, especially in the U.K. Not only that, but also we have all had to witness these same bankers reward themselves with seven figure bonuses for failing so badly that they had to be bailed out at our expense. How long before people declare that ‘enough is enough’?
There is more: with so many people doing two, three, or even more, jobs in order to make ends meet, and then being offered worthless little pieces of cotton reinforced paper as payment for their labour, how long will it be before there is a mood of revolution in the air and people refuse to work for effectively nothing? I imagine that a break from working all the hours God sends would be very attractive in its own right.
The problem for society at large is that these people do work that, despite the pittance that it usually attracts, is actually important, unlike that of so many others, such as advertising executives, bankers, film actors etc. etc. etc. Once the shelves don’t get stacked because the shelf stackers have stopped shelf stacking, or the delivery driver has declined to deliver the goods destined for those self-same shelves, it will not be long before we see a real collapse, i.e. one that you can get your teeth into.
How long before energy supply workers join in the fun and the lights go out? Think of all those lovely computers at the trading desks not even capable of low frequency trading let alone the high frequency stuff they were purchased for so that they could rob our pension funds little by little! How long before the water supply dries up, and with it the ability to cook a meal or flush the toilet? Of course, these are only minor inconveniences. It goes without saying that the collapse will only really go into top gear when we can no longer buy a Starbucks coffee.
There is an upside to all of this, believe it or not. There are grounds for arguing that climate change is now set upon a course where there are so many positive feedbacks now in operation that the only way we can hope to provide a chance for our descendants to survive is for there to be a complete economic collapse, with all that that implies; see Nature Bats Last http://guymcpherson.com/2013/01/climate-change-summary-and-update/
[quote=rdeslonde]I understand that our resources might last a long time (relatively speaking) and that the overall global grind down could take sometime, extending beyond our lifetimes.
But it seems an economic collapse could the the big event we have been planning for…I imagine this scenario:
The the world reaches a point where the U.S. can no longer export it's inflation in return for a higher standard of living. The economy in the U.S. tanks. And here's where it gets crazy - the U.S. can't make good on it's promises and all the people who are living on the government dole go crazy and that's where we have our crisis. People have become so accustomed to this that they can see no other way of living.
That's what I'm planning for - the day when the free gravy train stops and reality hits and those who were enjoying this free ride get booted off and are very cranky about it.
What does everyone else thing about this? Or is everyone else just planning for the long slow grind down as resources run out? I think there will be some serious discontent as a result of this.
[/quote]
I assume you're referring to the corporatocracy as they are the real recipients of taxpayers' largess. They won't rise up, they already own the government and will have to fall back on their decreasingly useful dollars without the government. If the "people" rise up, they will do it on Wall St. and Pennsylvania Ave. That's where the operators and beneficiaries of our ponzi system pull the strings. The rest of us are collateral damage, chaff in the wind, also rans - choose your metaphor. Focus on the real source of our problems and get your pitchforks and torches ready.
Be careful to recognize the kind of "dog whistle" politics discussed here:
http://video.pbs.org/video/2365189561/
Doug
The people in urban areas will be easy to control, all the powers that be will have to do is restrict or stop access to cash and deliveries of food, water and fuel and their populations will be begging for mercy within weeks, if not days. The collapse will be very uneven. Ironically, the Rust Belt, were the collapse has been underway for decades, may fare relativity well, we still have plenty of fresh water, farm land and hard woods for fuel. The South West, on the other hand, may well be completely depopulated.
John G
Karl Marx couldn't have written better.
James, You are a great boon to us and the Earth. I'm glad we did not lose you to the Stage where you would have not been able to do as much good (nor had the license to be so delightfully mischievous). Thanks for facing reality head-on, with compassion and humor and positive will.
Well said Mark.