Argentina: A Case Study in How An Economy Collapses

Resilient Life Public Resilient Life
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21

So much hatred, and its only your 4th post! “about to crash economically”? You seem to be the only one in the planet that ignores how bad the economy is in Spain. Don’t you read the news? Not only are Argentines moving out of Spain and back to Argentina (which speaks volumes given out still delicate, post collapse situation), even Spaniards are moving to Argentina looking for work! Spain clearly is one of the worst economies in the region and is unfortunately dragging down the rest of Europe.As for your childish insults, I won’t dignify them with a reply.
FerFAL

22

FerFAL-Thanks for your input!  Your comments about dual citizenship and resident status mirror our own thoughts, and our feelings are that its better to start early in our relocation than to wait and take the chance that some event or sequence of events that make it harder to do so in the future.
Oh, and in regards to what you said in the podcast about doing one’s own homework in deciding if or where to relocate and the ‘hidden costs’, I think you are 100% spot on.  One of my own personal experiences with that: if you are a Westerner doing business in Mongolia, there is a certain ‘expectation’ of sorts in what one wears, what one drives, and where one lives.  If you deviate too far from those expectations, like driving a Hyundai instead of a high-end Toyota or a Lexus for example, many potential clients and partners will dismiss you out-of-hand and your business will suffer.  I find that attitude wasteful and senseless (why drive a Lexus in a city with bad roads and worse drivers?), but life isn’t fair and I have to accept that’s simply part of the price of doing business there at this point in time.  I have to imagine Americans might encounter similar obstacles in business circles in other emerging nations; one finds that attitude everywhere to varying degrees, but some individuals in less wealthy countries take it to an extreme.
BTW, great job with your book; it’ll be one of the limited number of books I will be taking with me to Asia.  

  • Nick
23

All,  After listneing to this pod cast I looked for further info on Argentia’s collapse.  For those with a video inclination I found a series on youtube that will make your toes curl… See:    Argentina’s Economic Collapse - Part 1 to 12 (search youtube).        The series Graphically maps out how the middle class is consumed by the Wealthy and Political Elites through political betrayal, external creditor predation, and corruption of the legal process.   Violence and crushing poverty abound.   It is truely shocking to see the human impacts of the collapse process play out and how the publicaly held assets of the country pillaged. I shudder to think this is a very real possibility each of us and our nation.     For those with a more theoretical bent, the recent book “Survival+”’ by Charles Hugh Smith, dovetails almost exactly with the Argentina collapse.  Smith gives a very tractable explanation of HOW we are manipulated and digested under conditions of economic over reach.     Even more importantly, Smith describes what we must colaboratively acomplish if we are to resist the kind of pillage seen in Argentina.Survival+ describes that via Pareto Influence theory, a meer 4% of us have the potential to lead the majority of the population in an effective imune respone to excessive exploitation.    I found much of this description consistent with C. Martenson’s comments.       Our duty is clear.  Many strong souls  in generations past have given blood, sweat, and tears to create our liberties and our way of life.   Even now our nation remains blesed with many who treasure these gifts and feel strongly the obligation of our fathers and our expectant children.  I am refering to you. All of you here in these pages.   Our time for personal preparation and sacrifice has come.    God bless you and give you the strenght to be the pillar that your communities will require. Respectfully submitted

24

I don’t remember when I first watched this youtube series, but at the time must have been thinking that it can’t happen in the good ol’ USofA.
It’s much more alarming this time, seeing the parallels.
Fernando, assuming you’ve seen it, am wondering what you think about the accuracy and objectivity of the 12 part youtube presentation. Thanks
 

25

[quote=Concobb2]
It is truely shocking to see the human impacts of the collapse process play out and how the publicaly held assets of the country pillaged. I shudder to think this is a very real possibility each of us and our nation. [/quote]
Coming soon to a country near you, the application of the “Shock Doctrine” as spelled out by Naomi Klein. Is it 50 billion Euros of public assets that the Greeks are being forced to sell to private interests? The aim of these private interests is to sequentially impoverish nation states and buy their assets for cents on the dollar as part of their agenda for total global dominance.
Bailouts, starting with the infamous TARP, are merely the method of achieving their goal. Default before domination similar to death before slavery. No wonder the people are rioting against their spineless politicians!

26

[quote=Denny Johnson][quote=Concobb2]
All,  After listneing to this pod cast I looked for further info on Argentia’s collapse.  For those with a video inclination I found a series on youtube that will make your toes curl… See:    Argentina’s Economic Collapse - Part 1 to 12 (search youtube).        The series Graphically maps out how the middle class is consumed by the Wealthy and Political Elites through political betrayal, external creditor predation, and corruption of the legal process.   Violence and crushing poverty abound.   It is truely shocking to see the human impacts of the collapse process play out and how the publicaly held assets of the country pillaged. I shudder to think this is a very real possibility each of us and our nation.    
[/quote]
I don’t remember when I first watched this youtube series, but at the time must have been thinking that it can’t happen in the good ol’ USofA.
It’s much more alarming this time, seeing the parallels.
Fernando, assuming you’ve seen it, am wondering what you think about the accuracy and objectivity of the 12 part youtube presentation. Thanks
 
[/quote]
Its accurate but somewhat biased to the left, glorifying the wonders of socialism as a cure to all problems.
We now have an authoritarian socialist government not unlike Chavez in Venezuela. It Used to be more subtle but its getting worse.
I think the greatest challenge USA will have in the next decade will be both economical and political, fighting to avoid the recurrent historic formula of debt leading to economic collapse leading to big brother authoritarian government.
FerFAL

27

FerFAL,
Thank you for continuing to follow up on this thread and make additional insightful posts.

You are so right.  What we will need to be careful of is giving up our freedom for the sake of some politician’s idea of our “safety.”

Hugs … dons

28

In Germany we experienced a wave of shrinking items, going up in price 1…2 years ago. The food supplying companies were caught by the public as they were introducing this kind of fraud.
Now this is the new normal. The reputation of many firms is damaged. But because they are all acting the same way there is something like a new frontier the customers realize between them and these firms.

29

yesterday I bought some coffee. I remember prizes around 3,69€ 5 years ago. Now we have 5,78€ but yesterday there was a special offer: 3,99€

30

Wild inflation in coffee on the shelf here too (northeast US).  I buy the cheapest I can find which is chock full o’nuts 3 pound can at a local discount store.  I recall how happy I was buying a 3 pound can for under 10 dollars roughly 3 months ago (cheap!) and I just priced it today, 11.38.  14 percent inflation in a few months is steep.  One local TV report here claims the shelf price of coffee is up 100 percent in the past year.
Scary. Obviously not a hardship yet…not yet. 

31

There are several places that mention of this essay could go, but I felt since it mentioned Argentina, it would be a good idea to put it here first.
The Strategic Advantages Of Community Building
“First, cities exploded with rioting and violence as Argentinian police and military attempted to crush all dissent. Soon after, displaced refugees from population centers along with roving bands of thieves flooded into the countryside, wiping out isolated farms, murdering families, and hunting down any small group of survivors weaker than themselves and flush with supplies. The authorities (and I use the term loosely) were too busy trying to suppress civil protests to bother protecting those who were caught unprepared.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-strategic-advantages-community-building

Poet

 

32

The link isn’t working for me. Anybody else havin’ trouble with it?

33

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34

[quote=Adam
It is very important to understand that Argentina is not a democracy but a "cleptocracy". In thes system a very small number of persons rule the country in their own benefit. There are not rules niether laws. All kind of fellonies are not punished. People live with fear. Since 1983 the national institutions were undes modifications even de Constitution. Just now citizens are completely away of policy desitions. If you can read spanish I want to recommend you a book named just as the subject f this commment: La Maldición Argentina by Carlos J. AGA. He es a politics science proffesional, specialized in energy  who decribes a huge amount of situations resulting in the absolute "cleptocracy". Every documented event strongly expain why Argentina  (a very resources rich country) callapses an decline continuosly. Read it, and you will understand all the problem. Unfortunately this interesting analisys is only in Spanish.

Thank You

Napoleon

 

 

"When you ask any Argentinean person what concerns them the most, the first thing they’re going to be telling you is the crime problem. And the second one is the financial problem. Those are by far the top concerns the average Argentinean person has, and I think that eventually it will happen in the U.S.A., as well. I think that five years from now or so, you’re going to be talking to people, and the thing that’s going to be concerning them is that Joe down the street suffered a home invasion and got beaten up, maybe even got killed. All kinds of crime that didn’t used to happen in the good parts of town. It’s going to be one of the greatest concerns people will have, eventually.

And, of course, the financial situation as well. If you look into what people are worried about right now they’re worried about losing their jobs not being able to put food on the table the next month. They see that if they lose their jobs it’s not as easy as it used to be to find another one as well. That’s terrible, because it’s very cold when you look at it in numbers, but it’s—I’m telling you—it’s so much different when it happens on a social level and you see that on the street . When you see the people picking up garbage on the streets to eat."

Hyperinflation survivor Fernando "FerFAL" Aguirre shares his observations of life during and after Argentina’s currency collapse in 2001. He notes that the decline initally began slowly, with most of the populace slow to wake to the danger. But when the eventual collapse occured, it happened practiclly overnight - catching the country by surprise. In the wake of the collapse, dealing with poverty and violent crime became the dominant themes.

Worth our attention is his observation that he now sees the sames signs in the US and other major developed nations that he saw leading up to Argentina’s collapse. In fact, he foresees a similar endgame as all but inevitable.

Click the play button below to listen to Part 1 of Chris’ interview with FerFAL (runtime 31m:43s):

[swf file="http://media.PeakProsperity.com/audio/ferfal-2011-06-09-part1.mp3"]

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Or start reading the transcript below:

Chris Martenson: Welcome to another PeakProsperity.com podcast. I am Chris Martenson, your host today, as usual. Today we’re speaking with Fernando “FerFAL” Aguirre, author of Surviving the Economic Collapse (Self-published, 2009. ISBN 978-9870563457). FerFAL experienced the hyperinflationary destruction of Argentina’s economy in 2001 and has since dedicated his professional career, like I have, to educating the public about his experiences and observations of its lingering aftermath. Given the rising concerns that we all have today about the future of fiat currencies, our listeners are increasingly asking to hear from voices that have firsthand experience with extreme currency devaluation, what it means, how it actually feels, how it plays out. So we’re very fortunate that FerFAL is able to join us today from his home in Argentina. We’re going to be discussing the signs that preceded the collapse in his country and what has defined the society since, including smart moves to take if worried about a similar fate happened in one’s own country and how would you know where you are in the story as it unfolds. So FerFAL, we’re so glad to have you with us today.

FerFAL: Hi Chris. Thanks for having me here.

Chris Martenson: So take us back to that period leading up to the currency collapse that you witnessed living in Argentina in 2001. You know: What were the signs, what were people’s perceptions at the time about how dire the situation could get, and what was the government saying and doing?

FerFAL: Well, the government as always says that nothing is going on and that everything is fine. As you can come to expect by now, just a few hours later you see the entire country go down. And you will be seeing high amounts of an unemployment, and there’s going to be a good amount of social unrest. Unfortunately, many of these things are already happening in the United States. So you are seeing many of these signs right now.

Chris Martenson: What sort of signs? 

FerFAL: Having the people living on the streets where it didn’t happen before. Inflation slowly going up. There’s small details. I was talking with a friend yesterday of mine from the U.S.A. He was telling me that something I had mentioned a few years ago about sizes of items and products shrinking and changing the design. It’s all very well-campaigned with good marketing and such. It’s like we’re offering this new improved product, but that new improved product happens to be just a bit smaller than it used to be, at a slightly higher price. So all those little things, the way in which they hide the inflation, they slowly creep it into your life.

Chris Martenson: So did the Argentinean government—how were they hiding inflation?—through the official statistics claiming it was lower than what people were experiencing? Or how did that play out?

FerFAL: Yes, at first, hiding inflation as products get smaller, but soon enough that’s just not enough either. So it starts going up as well, noticeably so, and people see that their shopping cart just isn’t filling as much as it used to. You’re just buying half of what you used to with the same amount of money, but in the official statistics they’re saying that everything is fine because they changed the way they measure inflation so as to fit what they want to show you. So, if for example, take meat, it has gone up 20 percent, they will just take into account specific type of meat that is only found in one particular location, so it’s not very real, that statistic, but that’s what they stick to.

Chris Martenson: Right, so a beef tongue in the outer reaches seems to be cheaper today, so we’ll go with that—something like that. So it sounds like a pretty common story here, which is the governments obviously don’t want to admit that inflation is high, because that’s either a fiscal or a monetary failing, or most likely both. So they don’t like to admit that, plus there’s a lot of reasons why you want to keep inflation low in terms of being able to say your economic growth is higher and keeping your pension payments lower. There are a lot of reasons for that. So you’re saying that in the United States if we look around, we can already see early signs that parallel what you saw in Argentina? We have rising prices, shrinking packaging for certain things, maybe more people on food stamps, historical records, maybe more people homeless…

FerFAL: More people on social welfare—all those things we saw as well, and it’s happening in U.S.A. as well, unfortunately. It’s an already-written story. We know what ends up happening. It may have different variations, and it may end up in an economic collapse, or not. That’s something that I personally prefer not to be the one spreading that kind of—you know what happens? Its fear. It’s not productive for people in general when preparing, so I’m not going to be saying that the economy in the U.S. is going to be collapsed. All I’m going to be saying is that it’s going to be much worse than it already is right now, and people need to adjust to that different lifestyle. 

Chris Martenson: Absolutely, and I want to get to that really important point about how fear can be demotivating. Let’s get to that later. Let’s track this now. So how quickly did the collapse happen? You know, what is a boiling frog situation and people woke up one day and said “whoa, how did we get here?” Or did it feel somehow like the world changed overnight?

FerFAL: It’s a bit of both. These things don’t happen overnight. You see them coming for years. As you see it in U.S.A., as well, we saw it here as well, and that’s the reason why some of the richest, most powerful elite manage to leave the country with more than enough time. Some happen to do it more in a rush, but most of these guys that have the inside information manage to avoid having their bank accounts frozen, as we saw. So there are signs, and it is a bit of a boiling frog situation. The thing is, eventually when it cracks down, it does so all of a sudden. All of a sudden, you know, when the banks close, that’s when people go absolutely ballistic, because that’s when they realize that their money has been stolen from them - or when inflation turns to hyperinflation one day to the next. That’s when people see that even though you didn’t steal their money directly, as it happened here with the banks, you’re stealing it through inflation as well. So they just bought half of what they used to with the same amount of money. It’s, in a way, stealing their labor, their savings.

The rest of the transcript to Part 1 can be read here.

Click here to access Part 2 of the interview, which focuses on smart steps individuals can take in preparation before an economic collapse.

 

  Fernando "FerFAL" Aguirre experienced the hyperinflationary destruction of Argentina's economy in 2001 and continues to blog about his experiences and observations of its lingering aftermath. His website (www.themodernsurvivalist.com) and his book Surviving the Economic Collapse (Self-published, 2009. ISBN 978-9870563457) offer windows into the probable outcomes to expect during a collapsing economy. Note: Our site's What Should I Do? Guide offers specific guidance relevant to a number of the risks FerFAL mentions in the interview.

  

This What Should I Do? blog series is intended to surface knowledge and perspective useful to preparing for a future defined by Peak Oil.  The content is written by PeakProsperity.com readers and is based in their own experiences in putting into practice many of the ideas exchanged on this site.  If there are topics you'd like to see featured here, or if you have interest in contributing a post in a relevant area of your expertise, please indicate so in our What Should I Do? series feedback forum.

If you have not yet seen the other articles in this series, you can find them here:

This series is a companion to this site's free What Should I Do? Guide, which provides guidance from Chris and the PeakProsperity.com staff on specific strategies, products, and services that individuals should consider in their preparations.  

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