Mark, Re: “The system will crash, catastrophically, and we have no viable alternative to replace it with that will make it better afterwards.” While I agree completely with you and the crap man that “the” “system” is going down, I think that you guys are missing or avoiding the main point.
The main point is that we don’t have to identify with or remain members of “the” system and go down with it. We can escape “the” matrix. We can go Galt. This has already happened during the last dark ages, when the best and brightest people of that time (collapse of the Roman empire) started independent communities. This time around, we have virtually unlimited and free information and technology available that allows us to live a much better live than in the monasteries of old.
I also have a stake in this and am exploring how to greatly improve EROI of renewables by lifestyle modification. Unlike the EROI of oil, coal etc. the individual has much local control over EROI of renewables. This is an important story of our time and ignored by everyone. If you are willing to make some adjustments to lifestyle and roll up your sleeves, you can double or triple EROI of renewables. I am trying to write essays/book on my results. I have lots of experience but had to abandon custom (and even design/invent/build all my own power control circuits) to escape the wasteful low EROI approach of the past. Here is a small example, the 60Hz system invented 100+ years ago to solve the problem of power transmission greatly increases the investment and decreases efficiency of solar electric power and can be abandoned for serious improvement in EROI.
People keep judging alternative energy via the lens of how to shoehorn renewable into existing wasteful direct one vs one replacement for oil. Too much reality bias based simplistic thinking. CM’s intentions and leadership are a real key to unlocking what cannot be seen. The future belongs to such individuals, as we have realized with the likes of Jules Verne and Arthur Clarke. This is how real science and real scientists (not many these days despite the PhD’s that people append to their names) work. I am very optimistic for the 10-50% that will survive this. In fact for some of us, the future looks better than the past or present.
I have data.
Interesting point. The Egyptians built the pyramids without fossil fuels, on plant power alone which probably yielded an optimistic eroei of 4:1 I would guess. Same for the incas. A low net energy economy is possible. It’s just that 7 billion people cant be supported by it. As there will definitely be survivors to the crash, those anticipating it and modifying their energy situation may fare ok. Assuming that can survive the mobs of desperate people who haven’t prepared.
I always find Art’s analysis cogent and entertaining. He takes his technical experience and applies it, rationally, to what is self evident. We, and here I point the finger at all major educational establishments, must re-visit basic concepts in the discussion of what “marginal utility” means and how it is applied. As long as we allow the debt cycle to continue, we will only have ourselves to blame when the crunch comes. PP’s continued reference to “resilience” need not stop, but buttressed by discussions on low energy options and away from financial solutions. Re-defining what “utility” means should be the starting point in any serious discussion on solutions. As Art says:
Art Berman: And it goes beyond living arrangements, Chris. And we’ve talked about this offline. It has to do with emotional, psychological adjustment. Learning that I can be happy or gratified or satisfied without buying a new Tesla tomorrow. People have survived on this planet for hundreds of thousands of years at subsistence level and they led good lives, or at least they thought so.
I’m not suggesting that we should go back to hunter/gatherer, although there are some things that recommend that. But all I’m saying is this myth of continuous growth is possible, needs to be thrown away, and people have to take responsibility for their own happiness and satisfaction.
And here just when I thought I was the class pessimist around these parts, along come a few members to force me to up my game. This is what happens when you rest on your laurels, I suppose.
Oh, and agree with them. This is only going to get uglier, bloodier, deadlier, and more chaotic than anything most of us can even imagine. Humans have never transitioned to lower-density energy sources, and while we will likely survive at some level as a species, 90% of us won’t…and that’s my most optimistic appraisal. We also kinda suck at major transitions in general, imo.
Buckle up. Do your best to ready yourself, your family, and your community. But don’t fool yourself; the odds are very much stacked against all of us. I WISH that weren’t true, but wishes are worth what you pay for them.
Reaching 2025 isn’t the real problem. It’s the year when the mainstream figures out that 2025 is the true moment of shale oil output declining.
Great podcast, as usual. I love Art!
It is absolutely true that humans CAN survive and thrive in a lower energy future; we have for millennia! Just not at 7+billion, as was pointed out. There must be a catastrophic exctintion-level die-off for us to return back to how we were before. Barring a nuclear exchange, of course. If that happens all bets are off.
For me, personally, what the numbers tell me is that I need to prepare for one fundamental truth that American pop culture has not prepared me for: I’m not the hero of the story that is rapidly approaching. In this movie, I’m not Indiana Jones. I’m not the stereotypical Asian kid sidekick, or the blonde lady who is bound to fall in love with Indy. Hell, I’m not even the villain who gets his face melted off. Nope.
You know that one German soldier in that scene who just happened to be in the truck that ran off the road, plummeting to his death? Or the cook on the big Zeppelin who dies from a stray shot emanating from a gun exchange he didn’t see? Yep, that’s who I’m likely to be in the story of collapse. We all like to think we’ll be the ones who will make it through to the other side, but that’s just hope talking.
Do your best to survive, yes, but understand it’s not personal; it’s just math. Most of is must die if any of us are to survive to the other side, and chances for any of us individually ain’t that good. The struggle and preparation comes with its own reward, though, so I embrace the process of being one who tries to do what he can to prepare, as well as does what he can to try to avoid it happening in the first place. As I’m fond of saying, at least then I can honestly look my kids in the eye and tell them I did what I could do.
But I know I’m not Indiana Jones here.
I was beginning to wonder if we were all talking about the same planet. I live in a country where millions of households get food assistance, tens of millions of people are live in households that have no cash reserves and there are hundreds of millions of guns and hundreds of billions of rounds of ammunition in civilian hands. Almost all of the food and almost all of the energy is run through any number of industrial prosesses and transported hundreds, or thousands of miles to market. And only a tiny fraction of the population have any idea how to produce their own food and energy.
Like Snydeman, my greatest fear is of ending up a nameless corpse by the side of the road somewhere. That being said, if my only option is to give it my best shot, so be it, someone is going to survive. If not me then perhaps someone I can help along the way.
John G
30 yrs ago.
the goal wasn’t to “out survive” the other 2/3rds. The goal is to keep alive an arrow in the quiver of human experience that includes draft animals and human effort.
may my influence be on the other side? I dunno, but you all are a wonderful lot of folk even if…
Robie (and others with experience), I’m becoming more serious about this topic and am wondering if you could share your expertise and any good sources (books, websites, videos) you have. Not too long ago draft animals out numbered cars, trucks, and tractors and were essential to survival on the farm and in industry. Currently it seems draft animals are rarely used and would only be seen in parades, nostalgic beer commercials, at “horse pulling” competitions, or on Amish farms.
Its logical that the economics of draft animals vs. tractor will improve in the next decade and will eventually be in high demand again. Not only will they be an essential source of renewable energy, but will be an additional income stream for the farm (breeding, training, for hire services). All aspects of owning and operating will require skills that are currently rare in our communities.
Then there’s the personal health side of the equation and exposure to toxins. I’ve spent many hours on top of my little john deere 750 breathing diesel exhaust and often have my hands covered in petroleum products. That just cant be good for the body or the microbiome. Much healthier to breath the occasional blast of methane and have my hands covered in dung, slobber, and dirt.
This seems to be an essential topic due its own forum.
Over at Energy Skeptic, the first two articles on this page have lots of info on how few horses we have left relative to the 1800s when we used them, and also info on how many acres it takes to feed each one and other interesting aspects. Bottom line is you need to start raising them ASAP since it will take quite a while to have what you need.
http://energyskeptic.com/?s=horses
my personal experience is with draft horses, the Suffolk. 8 acres for three mature horses weighing 1700lbs each. Oxen would be more efficient as to acres but produce less work. Small Farmers Journal is a great place to start.
I fail to see how the optimistic case even has any support.
How do we have a level and gentle slope downward when decline rates on shale wells plummet faster than Paris Hilton’s popularity in the 90s?
Having trouble reconciling these two data sets. Please help.
-S
How about living more like native american tribes than an agrarian society? Problem with that model it doesn’t create wealth and that doesn’t create taxes, can’t have that can we. Don’t understand that we will be living in cities concept either. Cities require tons of infrastructure and energy. Many cities can’t afford to replace water and sewer lines. Water costs are skyrocketing, and it’s not uncommon to have water bills to be $100 per month. The slide will be very ugly and in desperate times, people will likely listen to the ruling elite who are creating more problems than solving them.
If we were to use rotational grazing for feeding livestock, only a fraction of feed and or hay would be needed to raise meat. Don’t know if you have studies mob grazing, or intensive rotational grazing, pretty cool stuff. Gabe Brown and Joel Salitin, Alan Savory etc. have been promoting this model and only a fraction of energy required verses other models.
First oil and second gas?
Thanks phoenixl and Robie. Those were great links, and a couple of hours later I’m fully distracted with clicking through articles and websites…and now a subscriber to the small farmer journal. I definitely need better adult supervision.
The take away from this mornings research is that getting started with draft animals won’t be economical or easy. Its a commitment to a regenerative, rural lifestyle (best case scenario) and is a hedge against a world that may not offer other choices (worst case scenario). I’m going to have to give up some other frivolous hobbies to make this one happen.
“Zen Mind Zen Horse” Alan Hamilton MD
https://blogs.ext.vt.edu/central-virginia-ag-spotlight/2015/04/30/meet-bluestem-farms/
There is no one grazing pattern, it takes many years to know one piece of land well.
This is one of the great reasons I am a PP subscriber. It’s how we (PPers) see the world; as it is --as it seems to be. We can be one of those who “wait” around and keep waiting for others to make our lives better, or make our own individual decisions and try to make a better world. Thank you.