Nice to see you guys have what it takes to run the empire. Now if only you had political bad taste.
It seems the White House got my memo on the USD, and a quick tweet from the Prez reversed the USD’s collapse. They’re working on Dave and Chris’s plans, which take more than a tweet to execute 
For my fellow PP readers who may worry about our future. I hope this will help offer a slightly different perspective.
Worrying is carrying tomorrow’s load with today’s strength - carrying two days at once.
It is moving into tomorrow a head of time.
Worrying does not empty tomorrow of it’s sorrow but today if it’s strength.
Corrie ten Boom
AKGrannyWGrit
but I’ve been listening to various podcasts, and one in particular was where the broadcasters were talking about the 50 things you had to have if things went downhill. Of the 50, we have 45 of them in place and in bulk stock. So, we’re doing alright!
My rule of life is, if I've thought of it, 100,000 other people have already thought of it before me. Many of them, predictably, are in power/control.Please don't be overly modest, Chris Martenson. I'd believe you if you'd have said that 1000 people have also thought of it and some of them were/are in power.
Hi Snydeman,
would you mind sharing the links of the podcast that lists these 50 things?
Thank you!
Casual Preppers, Episode 45!
Those guys on that podcast are a bit silly at times. I also subscribe to “The Survivalist Prepper Podcast” (Dale Goodwin). There’s a ton of them in the iPhone podcast if you search “Prepper.”
I searched for a written list of the type Snydeman referred to above. Found a couple, here is one.
- Generators–It can be a target for thieves due to the noise.
- Water
- Water Filters/Purifiers
- Portable Toilet
- Seasoned Firewood. Wood takes about 6-12 months to be ready for home use.
- Lamp Oil, Wicks, Lamps (Buy clear oil If scare, stockpile) Matches, matches and matches
- Coleman Fuel
- Charcoal and Lighter fluid
- Family Protection (guns, ammunition, pepper spray, knives)
- Cooking utensils (hand can opener, whisk, etc)
- Honey/sugar/syrups
- Rice/beans/ wheat
- Vegetable oil (for cooking)
- Water containers (get more than one and in different sizes)
- Propane Heaters and all accessories that go with it (extra propane, heads, etc)
- Fishing accessories (line, hooks, bobbies, etc)
- Lighting sources - short term and long term (flashlights, hurricane lamps, etc)
- Batteries
- Basin to do laundry in/wash boards, etc
- Cook stoves
- Vitamins
- Thermal underwear (top and bottoms)
- Tools (bow saw, axes, hatchets, wedges (honing oil). Sharpening stone.
- Aluminum Foil
- Feminine Hygiene/Haircare/Skin products. Hand lotion for chapped skin.
- Aluminum Foil
- Gasoline containers
- Garbage bags
- Toilet paper, paper towels, hygiene items
- Milk (canned, powdered and infant formula)
- Work gloves, Work boots, Work Clothes
- Seeds (non-hybrid)
- Clothes line and pins
- Coleman’s Pump Repair Kit
- Canned Goods
- Fire Extinguishers or Baking Soda
- First Aid Kits
- Batteries (all sizes)
- Spices, Vinegar and Baking Supplies, Yeast, Salt
- Dog Food
- Matches, matches and matches
- Notebooks, pencils
- Ice chests
- Flash lights, torches, light sticks
- Plastic Containers
- Cast iron cookware
- Fishing Supplies
- Insect Repellent sprays, creams
- Duct Tape
- Garbage cans with wheels. For storage, water, transporting if with wheels)
- Hygiene: Shampoo, Toothbrush/paste, Mouthwash/floss, nail clippers, etc
- Shaving supplies (razors & creams, talc, after shave)
- Cast iron cookware (sturdy, efficient)
- Fishing supplies/tools
- Mosquito repellents
- Duct Tape Tarps/stakes/twine/nails/rope/spikes
- Candles and matches, matches and matches.
- Laundry Detergent (liquid)
- Backpacks, Duffel Bags
- Garden tools & supplies
- Scissors, fabrics & sewing supplies
- Canned Fruits, Veggies, Soups, stews, etc.
- Bleach (plain, NOT scented: 4 to 6% sodium hypochlorite)
- Canning supplies, (Jars/lids/wax)
- Knives & Sharpening tools: files, stones, steel
- Bicycles Tires/tubes/pumps/chains, etc
- Sleeping Bags & blankets/pillows/mats
- Carbon Monoxide Alarm (battery powered)
- d-con Rat poison, MOUSE PRUFE II, Roach Killer
- Mousetraps, Ant traps & cockroach magnets
- Paper plates/cups/utensils (stock up, folks)
- Baby wipes, oils, waterless & Antibacterial soap (saves a lot of water)
- Rain gear, rubberized boots, etc.
- Hand pumps & siphons (for water and for fuels)
- Soy sauce, vinegar, bullions/gravy/soup base
- Reading glasses ← Oh yeah!
- Chocolate/Cocoa/Tang/Punch (water enhancers)
- Survival-in-a-Can
- Woolen clothing, scarves/ear-muffs/mittens
- Boy Scout Handbook, / also Leaders Catalog
- Roll-on Window Insulation Kit (MANCO)
- Graham crackers, saltines, pretzels, Trail mix/Jerky
- Popcorn, Peanut Butter, Nuts
- Socks, Underwear, T-shirts, etc. (extras)
- Lumber (all types)
- Wagons & carts (for transport to and from)
- Cots & Inflatable mattress’s
- Gloves: Work/warming/gardening, etc.
- Lantern Hangers
- Screen Patches, glue, nails, screws, nuts & bolts
- Teas
- Coffee
- Cigarettes
- Wine/Liquors (for bribes, medicinal, etc,)
- Paraffin wax
- Glue, nails, nuts, bolts, screws, etc.
- Atomizers (for cooling/bathing)
- Hats & cotton neckerchief
- Goats/chickens
Advice From a Sarajevo War Survivor:
Experiencing horrible things that can happen in a war death of parents and friends, hunger and malnutrition, endless freezing cold, fear, sniper attacks. - Stockpiling helps. But you never no how long trouble will last, so locate near renewable food sources.
- Living near a well with a manual pump is like being in Eden.
- After awhile, even gold can lose its luster. But there is no luxury in war quite like toilet paper. Its surplus value is greater than gold.
- Canned foods are awesome, especially if their contents are tasty without heating. One of the best things to stockpile is canned gravy it makes a lot of the dry unappetizing things you find to eat in war somewhat edible. Only needs enough heat to warm, not to cook. It ischeap too, especially if you buy it in bulk.
- Bring some books --escapist ones like romance or mysteries become more valuable as the war continues. Sure, its great to have a lot of survival guides, but you’ll figure most of that out on your own anyway trust me, you’ll have a lot of time on your hands.
- The feeling that you’re human can fade pretty fast. Â I can’t tell you how many people I knew who would have traded a much needed meal for just a little bit of toothpaste, rouge, soap or cologne. Not much point in fighting if you have to lose your humanity. These things are morale-builders like nothing else.
- Slow burning candles and matches, matches, matches
Thanks for posting Sand_Puppy!
A couple I would add would be “how to” books on everything and hand-held two-way radios so our can talk to neighbors, other members of your group or a neighborhood watch.
What else, let’s keep the discussion going?
AKGrannyWGrit
I listened to this podcast once more (when going on a run). It was even better 4X, so I put together some notes, dividing them between facts (F) and opinions (O) for further study. Listed below; hope not too many errors. I’ll have some comments later after I think them over a little more. Feel this subject is very important from an investing POV alone: F1. Least oil reserve replacement ever last 4 yrs ever (1980s 100%, 2012 50%, 2017 11%). F2. Oil discover to produce is 6-11 years; shale oil is faster but small & declines fast. F3. Oil largest consumer is US but largest importer. F4. Global oil demand 2017 is record (average 1.3 MBD yearly increase); no peak in sight. F5. 3 yrs of oil oversupply now ending. F6. Ultralight shale oil must blend for current refining systems; 90% of the energy of Saudi oil. F7. Need 30-40 yr supply of light oil to justify refinery mods; not happening. F8. BOE energy content includes NG so oil BO may be inflated by 20%. F9. US is only exporting NGL (light oil) since it has little use for here. F10. Bakken EUR: Rystad per well 700M BBL, but CM using public data shows half this. F11. Since 2008 tight oil plays have cheery-picked data (w/footnotes) to exaggerate EUR. F12. Well EUR 30 or 15 years? Often 15+ is not commercial, yet using 30. F13. AB shows Bakken wells 400-500 BOE; Others use 500 BOPD 30 yrs & wrong. F14. Pump jacks must factor water cut & horizontal wear; not yet proven economical for shale oil. F15. NG dissolved in oil comes out at sandface for lift; Bakken GOR declining and DCA ignores this. F16. Technologies today give higher initial rates that decline faster, but shale EUR use initial rates. F17. Shale oil has been cash flow negative at $40 or $100; primary deplete 3 yrs…how to pay out? F18. Permian data 3.75 billion bbl less than Bakken or Eagle Ford; yet CEOs claim Wolf Camp 10X. F19. Shale plays no bonanza based upon US use, so we will remain dependent on others. O1. Economic growth & well-being (stocks/bonds) in a JIT economy requires availability of cheap oil. O2. Oil universal so a slow transition to other energy sources. O3. China will likely replace US as Saudi primary buyer and this is a danger to US oil supplies. O4. If oil prices high, shale service costs high; if low then low so companies lose $ either way. O5. Pump jacks will not be proven economical for shale oil. O6. Cannot double oil extraction costs without economic growth issues. O7. We know oil is limited; why not exit the oil age on our own terms?
Sorry for the above format; fixed below:
I listened to this podcast once more (when going on a run). It was even better 4X, so I put together some notes, dividing them between facts (F) and opinions (O) for further study. Listed below; hope not too many errors.
I’ll have some comments later after I think them over a little more. Feel this subject is very important from an investing POV alone:
F1. Least oil reserve replacement ever last 4 yrs ever (1980s 100%, 2012 50%, 2017 11%).
F2. Oil discover to produce is 6-11 years; shale oil is faster but small & declines fast.
F3. Oil largest consumer is US but largest importer.
F4. Global oil demand 2017 is record (average 1.3 MBD yearly increase); no peak in sight.
F5. 3 yrs of oil oversupply now ending.
F6. Ultralight shale oil must blend for current refining systems; 90% of the energy of Saudi oil.
F7. Need 30-40 yr supply of light oil to justify refinery mods; not happening.
F8. BOE energy content includes NG so oil BO may be inflated by 20%.
F9. US is only exporting NGL (light oil) since it has little use for here.
F10. Bakken EUR: Rystad per well 700M BBL, but CM using public data shows half this.
F11. Since 2008 tight oil plays have cheery-picked data (w/footnotes) to exaggerate EUR.
F12. Well EUR 30 or 15 years? Often 15+ is not commercial, yet using 30.
F13. AB shows Bakken wells 400-500 BOE; Others use 500 BOPD 30 yrs & wrong.
F14. Pump jacks must factor water cut & horizontal wear; not yet proven economical for shale oil.
F15. NG dissolved in oil comes out at sandface for lift; Bakken GOR declining and DCA ignores this.
F16. Technologies today give higher initial rates that decline faster, but shale EUR use initial rates.
F17. Shale oil has been cash flow negative at $40 or $100; primary deplete 3 yrs…how to pay out?
F18. Permian data 3.75 billion bbl less than Bakken or Eagle Ford; yet CEOs claim Wolf Camp 10X.
F19. Shale plays no bonanza based upon US use, so we will remain dependent on others.
O1. Economic growth & well-being (stocks/bonds) in a JIT economy requires availability of cheap oil.
O2. Oil universal so a slow transition to other energy sources.
O3. China will likely replace US as Saudi primary buyer and this is a danger to US oil supplies.
O4. If oil prices high, shale service costs high; if low then low so companies lose $ either way.
O5. Pump jacks will not be proven economical for shale oil.
O6. Cannot double oil extraction costs without economic growth issues.
O7. We know oil is limited; why not exit the oil age on our own terms?
MKI-
Those are a great set of observations - I think this of course because they line up pretty closely with my own memory of what the important bits were from the interview.
Thanks for putting in the effort.
I agree with DaveF. Now, if there was a specific set of data or conclusions you wanted to refute or challenge, it’d be easy to insert your own data or conclusions alongside that list.
A few thoughts on the interview:
- I’m fascinated by Art’s perspective because he is a geologist (I’m an engineer). Different way of thinking, and I’m learning quite a bit.
- I think he’s right about the coming collapse in shale expectations. Many people will likely be surprised how “rough” estimates are; about a decade ago I took over a declining field (gas not oil) and quickly showed how the EUR was never gonna happen because the poor completion technology locked in place (monobores). The reservoir engineers freaked, the EUR was slashed, & the asset was sold within a year. I think a lot of this will happen a lot with shale plays, but really am not educated enough to say.
- I think he’s wrong about the China/Saudi/US oil competition. China uses lots of oil merely because they manufacture everything (mostly for us). The minute we stop buying their junk, they stop using so much oil. Who cares who buys it from whom? Oil is fairly fungible and it only needs a market that can afford to pay for it. That’s the US, not China.
- I think he’s right about a coming oil price spike. But predictions are dangerous; why didn’t this happen in 2015 and hold until now? Nothing has changed since then, yet we’ve had record consumption yet low prices. Caution is advised when predicting oil prices.
- I think the whole refinery-mods-light-oil discussion is a joke. If it comes, we will build it. It’s all about price; if the price is there, we will build it in record time. But I also agree we won’t have the light oil. I think we will have less oil period making the refinery issue moot.
- Agree 100% the BOE energy content including NG is something to watch very carefully, and Art is doing exactly that.
- I estimate people will be surprised at how effective the artificial lift technologies adjust to match the challenges that come…IF we get a high oil price (>$125), which I think is coming. For example, gas lift could be used instead of pump jacks. Lots of options. But I agree with Art that DCA is not currently accounting for it and many people will be surprised.
- I disagree that shale oil will be “cash flow negative” at any price before it’s all over. I think the oil companies expect a price shock. They can see the discovery data as well as Art, yet they invest. They ain’t dumb. And the service companies boom and bust all the time.
- I disagree our economics of growth & well-being (stocks/bonds) requires availability of cheap oil which being so universal it means a slow transition to other energy sources. I guess we can double oil extraction cost without much economic growth issues. Why do I think this? Primarily because 70% of our use is transportation, and at least half of our transpiration is an utter waste. We can move into town and live in less space, plus we can carpool, plus we can just drive less. So the price will be somewhat supressed over time, giving plenty of time for adjustments.
- I think think this quote by Hayek is applicable to this discussion: The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design. Art & Chris remind me of members of the Politburo scheming how to plan their economy, while the free world doesn’t plan at all and just lets the free market take care of things with price and consumption adjustment. Will it often be painful with boom and bust? Sure. But it won’t be nearly as painful as life in 1950 when we had half our GDP, yet life was just fine then. We don’t need to worry about conserving oil, since the market will do it for us, and we will continue along like we have for 300 years, getting wealthier by adjusting to the situation. Unless we see a war or social unrest, now that makes everyone very poor. See: Venezuela. I think it ironic that Venezuela has large oil supplies and is starving, yet Japan has no oil and is rich as hell. Oil is clearly not the master resource but rather good and peaceful people are.
But I can’t thank Chris and Art enough for this interview. It’s not an easy thing to interview somebody on, and Chris did a fabulous job, very knowledgeable and the subject, and his article The Great Oil Swindle shows. There is a real lack of smart commentary on this issue and this interview was an hour of pure information-packed data. I may have to listen to it a 5th time…