Barry Ritholtz: Sailing with Sea Monsters

I like Mark Grants words very much and he said this today as part of his essay:
"The Law of Nations forestalls the crash but the Law of Averages virtually guarantees it while the precise moment of impact is unobtainable that is exactly why I am so cautious and so determined in my viewpoint that exposure to Europe should be avoided. The impact is surely coming and in my mind; it is only a question of “When?”."

I believe this is truth, and the trickle effect will be a large wave by the time it reaches shore. I believe the actions of the Fed and the ECB is "PANIC" as Mish, Chris, and others have opinion ed. Why? The markets were at near all time highs with no growth what-so-ever apparent, frankly an illusionary high. The Fed's actions wasn't because of Bernanke fearing for his job, or any other feel good stories that he has decided to due whatever he is doing, it is in my opinion because the Central Planners have no clue as to how to get a grip on the Worlds Finances. How do you model anything when bullshit in gets you bullshit out. Sometimes you have to let things take due course because the forces are just too powerful. The planners have failed conceptually, so will fail. That simple. They have decided to print from " infinity to beyond ", and then more, before pulling it all back in! Really!? Good luck with that, and WHAT!?. Thanks for the certainty Big Fella that all is well.

All of this feels like an open ended question mark, and that tells me FEAR!

Take what is given you and bet accordingly. Gold is money, and fiat paper is being mass produced making each and every one of them less valuable. One cannot go to zero while the other most certainly can. One can take you anywhere on earth and purchase food, clothing, water, and shelter. The other cannot.

Have a great day

Go Tigers

BOB
 

Jim, imagaination has little to do with it.  My point was that Zimbabwe and Argentina are not good examples.
They're good academic exercises.  But that doesn't make them good examples.
For all intents and purposes, the US is an empire.  Shifting soci-economic baselines are best seen through that lens.  Plenty of choices, and I stand by my statement that Zimbabwe and Argentina are not among them.

the Fed – I do not want to say debasing the dollar, but – 
wow if one cannot see that that is exactly what is happening then I'm not certain that one can see much at all. I think his views are a lot closer to what one would hear on CNBC than what one reads on this site or other contrarian sources. But…I guess it must be very hard to see the fears that many of us have come to uncover over the past 2 to 4 years (or more).

I am reminded of that reality of exponential growth (from the Crash Course)…you are in the stadium and it is filling with water, doubling with every unit of time. When it is half full you have but one time unit to remove the cuffs. It is this knowledge that when 'shit happens' it happens fast that makes me less willing than most people to just wait and see.

How's about Rome?http://www2.gcc.edu/dept/econ/ASSC/Papers2010-2011/Botting_inflationmilitary.pdf
http://mithan415.hubpages.com/hub/How-Nero-Secretly-Debased-Roman-Currency-Is-the-Federal-Reserve-Repeating-HistoryVIDEO
http://dirtyoldcoins.com/Roman-Coins-Blog/?p=190
 

 
 

The devaluation that took 200 years in Rome is about the same as what took 100 years in the US.   This might go on a lot longer or accelerate quickly, who knows!?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v-zaA-OZsVY&feature=relmfuhttp://trimtabs.com/blog/
Shorted Oil after the Fed release QEInfinity and I am just in a darn good mood. Plus Janjuah and some of my friends convinced me my research made sense to do so.
Regards
Goooo Tigers
BOB
 

Pshaw…you got lucky with the short.  Some of us know the real reason why you are "just in a darn good mood" is because the Tigers are tied for first, Sanchez is finally throwing the way he's supposed to and Miggy has a real shot at the Triple Crown!!  It's an 8 day season now…
Indeed, Go Tigers!! 

Busted DOG!

I told you Brother, wayyyyy back in the day.

Enjoy!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jzmAuKXfhP4&feature=related

Gooooooo Tigers

I was wearing my Strohs tee while I listened to the Tigers song.  From one beer lover to another… well, you know the tune.   

Now that's what I'm talking about.  Scope is relatable.  The example also works better because we share the "preferred status" and stretched military-profit complex.
Like I said, Zimbabwe is a good academic example - the results of currency devalution.  But the scope is the problem.
Rome works.

Why I have no doubts that we, as Americans, will come out of our malaise and figure it out. BASEBALL!!!
Trains will need to be running, on schedule, and baseball will see to that. Stadiums will need to be lit so power of some sort will be figured out. Little League, Highschool Ball, College, Minors, Pro's and well over $250 million people are dependent on the game for their stress level control, and as baby sitters so the Dad's can teach properly their son's and daughters, and the woman socialize the most gifted of gossip, something I have come to really appreciate in my life. Woman can get the goods on EVERYONES personal life, truly amazing. I cannot ever remember someones name unless I coached with these people, and woman know everyones name, their addresses, ages of the kids, and all to memory, and only write them in the address book at some later date over coffee!!!

Baseball has grown through the horse depression of the late 1800's when the horses caught some mysterious flu and all commerce stopped! You couldn't get goods and services to hook up because the horses were all sick. Trains got the food to town but without horses nothing moved.

We have had two world wars, nuclear explosions, many conflicts, many recessions, etc…

In addition we started baseballs long legacy before the automobile and gasoline and will probably play baseball without the internal combustion engine and gasoline (that is affordable anyways).

Over the years the only thing that has changed in baseball is that woman have come to realize that if she truly wants her significant other in her daily life that she had to adapt, and in doing so has now conceived the form fitted, designer (of course) girls jersey. The boys jersey just won't do anymore. Ladies don't dress for Men as some here may think they dress for other women. Why? Women can see in one glance what another woman's shoes look like, where they bought them, stockings, is the dress hem professionally done or not, do the colors of the outfit compliment skin tone, so forth and so on. It is an amazing process to watch. A woman's facial features as her eyebrow goes up in the corner, how her lips react, and whether all of this, in a millisecond, and even faster than HFT, if she likes or dis-likes the outfit or the person!!! 

Guys, we just don't care about such trivia although we have all come to appreciate the effort our Ladies have put into our relationship, and we are much happier for this. I will offer this however, the walk to the gates are a bit more interesting from the parking lots. We no longer have to cover our mouths as we step over a man hole cover because the smell of Channel No5000 has wafted about nuetralizing the stench from the man hole cover so all is good. Which reminds me, before my Lady and I had come to appreciate each others so well I almost got busted for something I DID NOT do. I smelled of womans perfume after getting home from the game that day, was asked about it, and all I could say was it must have gotten there on the walk to the game. She nodded. Woman are so perceptive that way. Whew!

My Lady has actually reached a level of expertise about the game over the years that she is now a peer in all things baseball. I really believe she loves me because of this, and is why I will honor her wherever we should happen to be. Except, at a baseball game! Once we hit the gates and our tickets have been scanned it is focus time!!! Get to our seats NOW!

Men have their stuff, granted, and will request that the mustard stains and beer (I prefer root beer or Crown and 7up) drippings be left just where they are as to not jinx the Boys in their next game because "our" jersey has special powers. So no washing machine is required. We are responsible somehow for the new, current, winning streek we are on because the mustard just so happened to have landed on our Jersey during a game we just won. That Jersey can look a mess during a long streek but we Men wear it as a BADGE of HONOR!!! Thankfully the woman all wear Channel No5001!

Me, I might saturate my Jersey with Old Spice, everybody loves Old Spice plus it too has a catchy tune. We all know it, are whistling it now, aren't we!? All Dad's wore Old Spice and we loved our Dad's. Even if we didn't (I most certainly did, he taught me BASEBALL) we still love Old Spice. 

So why is this important? A family who plays together, lives together. They are happy, every day is a tense, joyfully so, day, just waiting for the Boys next BIG GAME. The season's are changing, there's 7 games left and the boys are up by one game.

Take this game away from the people and I assure you commerce will stop too, and is why baseball will save the world. Until Football season, then Hockey, Basketball, Golf, Bowling on TV (only), and finally Kick Boxing, in a ring, with some really crazed American honors students just trying to pay off their student loans will just kick the livin' bejeebers out of one another's and smile about it after the fight!!! .

I love my Tigers, 162 games of absolute delight. 

My favorite play in all of baseball is the liner off the wall in right with a Big, facial haired monster of a Man, in the later stages of his career, can't run like he used to on second, the carum is played perfectly, the outfielder spins, locates, and hits the cut off man who then fires a rocket to home, a collision occurs, and the catcher raises his glove to the umpire and the umpire gives a rather spirited out call. Nothing, and I mean nothing in life is so beautiful.

Except!!!, perhaps, Dirks, a spirited, young, aggressive, wanting to stay in the show, rookie,  taking out the second basemen in last nights game not allowing the completion of the double play, runner from third scores, and is the winning run as it turns out.

Life is hard, it is, but life without baseball would just be unbearable.

Time to draw up the plans for high speed rail because America CANNOT and WILL NOT be happy if their sports are taken away. GAURANTEED!!!

Jim H, tell the truth, you have been singing that tune in your head (at least) a hundred times since you heard it, right? Me too! We're all behind our baseball team, go get em Tigers…LOL

Jim H, I have a book for you that you will truly enjoy, and I'll send it along. I missed an opportunity for something special that may still happen again, and I want to send that along as well. Hang tough my friend, I never just let things be and I try to enhance things where I think I can.

Gooooo Tigers

Up 1 with 7 to go!!! I love it.

Respectfully Given and NO ONE honors the Lady's as a gentlemen as I do so if I have caused the corner of any eyebrow to twitch of any Lady here it was UNINTENTIONAL. I respect you all.

BOB 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kRqHM6dOUJI