Charles Hugh Smith: What Would A Better System Look Like?

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@VTGothic Furthermore, because of how Bitcoin is designed, it has all the privacy (another key feature Charles wants) of a current fiat cash transaction.
Not exactly. Bitcoin isn't really private/untraceable like cash unless you use it very carefully (e.g. not reusing addresses, choosing your UTXO inputs, not linking any address to other PII), because of how transparent it is. There are already blockchain analysis firms that have turned BTC and most other coins into surveillancecoins, in contrast to privacycoins, such as Monero and Zcash.
Bitcoin, by contrast, does not need to rely on hopium, nor to believe in the (demonstrably non-existent) natural goodness of the human soul.
That's a step too far, you can't demonstrate that... ;)
@sand_puppy My experience with communities have all centered around a charismatic leader. The leader held the vision, decided things, and was the interpersonal glue that held things together. But personality conflicts eventually arose. The leader-follower glue (mostly admiration for the leader) came loose and the communities splintered. The problem is worse if the leader is smart, well liked, and has a charismatic personality.
This has also been happening for a long time in spiritual communities; we've been subscribing to the teacher/master--disciple model/relationship, which is coming to an end as well. As I and a number of other researchers have been suspecting for a while, 'The Event' is about the collapse of hierarchy and the control structures, i.e. a complete loss of trust in the institutions, weaponized to enslave us in ever more blatant ways, in favor of bottom-up horizontal holocratic organizational structures.
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I don’t think humans can operate without narratives, or some sort of overarching view of the world and their place in it. They issue is how to deal with conflicts between the narrative and facts. Confirmation bias pops up as one solution: cling to the narrative, filter out facts that don’t conform.
Another approach is to hedge as insurance. Make your best guess of the future, but put a little money in place in case that doesn’t happen, or happens far in the future.
For example, suppose you project massive inflation is coming because we’re on a fiat currency, and all fait currencies eventually collapse. That was as true in 1971 as it is today. If you bought gold in 71, you did well over the next decade, but lost a lot over the two subsequent decades. So having some money in other things - say, cash-generating investments - would offset the effective holding cost to sitting in gold while waiting for the sky to fall.

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MM and sand_puppy: Thank you both for your latest posts. I believe they contain crucial considerations.
“It’s hard to make predictions, especially about the future.” - Yogi Berra
Aloha, Steve

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Hans, thank you for your comments about flaws in our currency thinking.
The real bills doctrine was brought up as a solution in this context to avoid these issues, almost 100 years ago but no one is talking about it now. Basically, the people at the bottom who create wealth should be the only ones who can issue new money, based on their promised wealth products. The amount of money then corresponds with real wealth creation. We should redirect our precious time attention away from the free-shit wheel spinning dreams of financial planners and bitcoin gamers and focus on the details of real wealth creation.
A big contribution of CHS’s tome is to point out the need for a system that rewards real value. Why cant the Real Bills Doctrine play a role in such system. I am a farmer (or shoe maker) who needs investment in the Spring (or to buy materials) so I write my own promissory scrip (money) that people will value because they want my future produced food or shoes after which my script is redeemed, the debt self extinguishes. If I do not create the food or the shoes (maybe I spend my time gaming the currency) then my scrip becomes worthless and is thrown away. A corollary to that is, we need a better environment , a better future so let’s measure the parameters of “better environment” and link measurements of such with actions that can be taken. I saw a 100 year old type of stone scrip on the side of a 100 year old paved lane going over a mountain in the north side of my island. Listing the contributions of long-dead neighbors who did something to improve their neigborhood, and who only received recognition for their efforts. Mr. Yamada contributed 10 yen. 100 years later I come by and respect Yamada’s help to my foot travel (this is an example of a system that encourages real wealth creation)
We should be using our valuable brain power and short attention spans to evaluate and encourage each other’s contribution to the glorious world of wealth production and a better life. Bit coin gaming, and Tesla stock gaming and (fill in the blank) gaming is not helpful. OK, so bitcoin has some new features that can be used to bypass the banks. I get it. I got it years ago actually.
CM’s discussions of land banking (creation of wealth in the soil), saving rain water etc. are more important than the buy low sell high gaming schemes that everyone seems to be focusing on. How to redirect efforts towards respecting and promoting real value was a major point in CHS’s book. No one is talking about this more important point.

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Sand Puppy and Mohammad Mast thank you. Very insightful. Would love for Chris et al to bring these aspects (spirituality and keeping balanced as we work our Plan ‘B’) into his work more.

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Yes, when your core self is unable to remain in denial of what’s coming (it’s just a matter of when and to what degree), there is a price to be paid. Scouts who by definition must range out to the edge of the “safe” and “civilized” areas in order to gather information about what is coming (ostensibly to advise and protect/aid their community/tribe) – well, the scouts live rough and are by definition at least somewhat marginalized. We are also indispensable.
Follow the path. If you’re here on PP, it’s probably yours to walk. Keep looking out there at the edge and keep on gathering information and making what preparations one can. But – it is also of immense importance to find joy in the day-to-day, pleasure in the small things, and comfort with our family/tribe (or as we say in Hawai’i: ohana)…
I try to do something I enjoy with people I care about every day. No matter how seemingly trivial or brief the moment, it is grounding and heart-opening and it humanizes me to anybody who might (if they happen to understand my core belief system) wonder if I’m a kook. No, I’m not a kook. I’m a scout. And there are elements of my essential psychological/spiritual makeup that explain why I’m out at the edge, watching. Just as there are elements of other people’s makeup that keep them at the center (and perhaps resistant to the idea that change is coming, if not imminent).
No judgment – tribes need both of these types (and many other types, too).
This daily practice – do things you enjoy with people you care about – is part of my spiritual path. I tend to get “out there” if I don’t ground myself in the quotidian. And when I describe something as common or ordinary, I am not denigrating it; most of our lives are made up of the quotidian, and much of it is lovely – especially if one takes care to arrange one’s daily just so. For the record, with my beloved practice of Tai Ji and Qi Gong, I’d describe myself as raised charismatic Christian but these days unchurched and Tao-ish. I am a part of all what is and part of an unfolding process which it is my pleasure and intent to harmonize with – I don’t get to choose what wave arises, but I choose to surf it with panache.
Eat clean food, drink lots of water, prioritize sleep, move your body several times a day every day, keep learning, love often, have compassion for the struggling people you encounter, and do things you enjoy with people you care about. And: inquire as to the nature of things, including yourself and the divine (unless you’re an agnostic or atheist, in which case continually inquire as to by what immensely magnificent process all this show arose)…
The next ten years (or more?) are going to be a time of immense and sometimes desperate struggle. They will also be full of invitations to create, and participate in, marvelous and long-overdue change. And we scouts? We’ll scope the way forward…
One man’s opinion…
VIVA – Sager

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Back during the Carter Adm. high inflation I was approached and signed up to be a part of a scheme where you earned credits and could use these credits to purchase many items used in every day life.
What happened and I am really challenging myself to remember as time has moved along is that I would paint a clients home and be credited with X amount of credits. Then I could take these credits and purchase a lawn mower and any other items from vendors on the list provided by those who set this scheme up… This went on for a while until I would do other clients homes, the plan to get a van from one of the vendors on the list was my goal. Then Volker came along.
What Volker did was he lowered the inflation rate with a gutsy policy to reduce the very high inflation and get back to a reasonable inflation. With that went the interest in this social plan that I was involved in. I had many credits with no vendors honoring the credits I had saved up so eventually, actually overnight, the whole system failed.
As is always the case, when confidence in the system fails than quite quickly it goes to zero as bad news has a way of doing this. It seems everyone gets the memo at the very same time. I rationalized the whole experience this way: I basically got off cheap and learned a very important lesson. My lesson was and has been cash on the barrel head or a barter that is made in real time where I get what I want and the person I’m working with gets what they want immediately. Good-Good!
I DO NOT believe any system will truly work as the current system works. We better be very careful what we ask for and we have a system that will take a long time to truly destroy. It’s unthinkable for me to think I won’t use dollars and coinage to due my purchases. Inclusive of course is credit cards and long term loans. We are all so familiar with our system that to be asked to change this dramatically will take a very long time to have a positive reaction by the masses to accept. We can tweak this system but to reinvent the system will be a change that will cause a mental breakdown among the masses and is what I fear would take a very long time to make common and acceptable to all. The system we have now while far from perfect should be made better and should get the time necessary to make good again.
The Rich do not understand that what they have are ill gotten gains and if they want to hold onto what they have they should jump first into the arena and essentially give it all back. It’s going to happen anyways so why risk their lynching on their front lawn oak tree in favor of getting ahead of this and help be a part of the solution rather than part of the problem. If they gave half their wealth they would still be wealthy beyond anything reasonable. Even by taking half their wealth we as a country would not benefit all that much as it wouldn’t come close to paying down our national debt. What it would do however is send a strong message that they understand, and that country comes first and it would be a great leadership example to everyone that we are in this together. Greed don’t work this way however and so I fear the worst for others. Me, I’m resilient. I control my destiny and will live the life I wish to live. In doing this my plans are to be there for those that help me directly and without having to spend or make any cash. I earn the respect of my small community and we will ban together to make this little part of the world one that we want to protect and do whatever is necessary to maintain it. We really only need food, water, clothing a roof over our head and heat/energy to truly be wealthy after all. Do this and collectively we have the energy to do other things with the resources we all have that can be used to have major impacts in all our lives. My neighbors and I have many millions of board feet of lumber and a well stocked food source that live in this environment so we should or rather could be just fine in any environment.
Charles is really putting himself out there. He has started a conversation that I have enjoyed reading as he always does for me. It’s tough being the first but he does it with such class and confidence. He is willing to change his mind if given a better way to do things as Chris has done, you have done and I have done.
We have some gifted Folks on this site that have credibility and for me that’s inclusive of everyone who takes the time to offer their comments here.
Great conversation. Peace BOB

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First let me say I admire your honesty, your transparency, and your willingness to place yourself in a position of vulnerability. That all takes courage and speaks well of your character. I for one (and I'm sure others) have watched while you've learned and grown and then shared that learning with others, helping them to see the truth as well. While learning what you have learned can be somewhat traumatizing to the psyche (I know it was for me), what can be greater than this search for the truth, regardless of the pain and suffering involved, and passing on what you have learned to others. That, to me, is a noble endeavor, worthy of what you have endured.
Furthermore, in so far as being right or wrong, it's very much a matter of perspective with regards to investing one's money. Let's take a snapshot in time from January 1st, 2000 until yesterday or a period of roughly 20 years. From that day to yesterday, September 24, 2020, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased from 10,729 to 26,815, an increase of 2.50X. The S&P 500 increased from 1,426 to 3,247, an increase of 2.28X. The Nasdaq increased from 4,186 to 10,672, an increase of 2.55X. Yet in the same time frame, gold increased from 282 to 1,964, an increase of 6.96X while silver increased from 5.3 to 22.2, an increase of 4.2X.
So gold, admittedly a crappy investment (but not a crappy insurance policy) because of no capital growth, no dividends, and no interest, handily outperformed each major stock index in that time frame, more than doubling in comparison. So were you right or were your family members right?;-)
In so far as spiritual teachers, I recall one who said:
"I have told you these things, so that in me you may have peace. In this world you will have trouble. But take heart! I have overcome the world."
He also said (foretelling what was to come in this time of strife):
"They will be divided, father against son and son against father, mother against daughter and daughter against mother, mother-in-law against daughter-in-law and daughter-in-law against mother-in-law."
And he said:
“Come to me, all you who are weary and burdened, and I will give you rest. Take my yoke upon you and learn from me, for I am gentle and humble in heart, and you will find rest for your souls. For my yoke is easy and my burden is light.”
I've studied many great spiritual teachers and I've never found words more powerful or truthful than his. For me, when you know where you've come from, who you are, and where you are going, there is a peace that comes upon you that this world cannot shake.
I think you are very wise and humble to seek out the help you did. And I hope that you will continue to learn and grow in that realm of understanding as you have in others.
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Behind Every Train There Is Another Train, Be careful walking down the tracks.
This is a saying in India I was told. It’s not about trains. It’s about what I believe and become overly identified with and possessive of and therefore defensive of. This includes spiritual materialism.
Grief is one of the great teachers in all it’s stages because one has no choice but to “let go” or remain in pain. Suffering is another matter but an equally powerful master.
Confusion, ahh, confusion, is what enlightenment feels like. If you’re not confused you can’t really be all that conscious of reality because life is confusing.
Recently I’ve absorbed Prof. McPherson’s paradigm where our future is baked in. Quite literally Baked In. There is nothing large mammals can do now except live well.
I resisted this idea and for some time found I was going through stage of grief ie denial, anger, … acceptance. Acceptance is a peaceful form of confusion. Let it go. Live well as I can.
However, I’ll not be shoveling cow poop any time soon as I’m quite busy with my own. But, I can’t wait for the opportunity to watch others shoveling at the PP Farm School when it opens for visitors!

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SP: The first is to simply see the insecure/fearful feelings as feelings without running a cognitive operation to "manage" them. Awareness envelops and sees the feelings, holding them, and they are reduced in power. Sometimes by being held, they actually melt, but not always. Melting is wonderful, but the goal is to be present with what is. And often it is insecurity.
This is the key to life I believe, at least my life. I've always had the propensity to assign way too much value to my thoughts. Once you identify with a thought, it skews your perception of the next thought, and you end up riding a chain of thoughts to no place worth going. For me, 'ignoring' my thoughts, for lack of a better term, is the hardest thing to do. It requires significant and consistent focus on the kinesthetic input from my body to be able to disengage from the thought process, if only for a brief moment. This focus on kinesthetic input from the nervous system is what I believe they mean by 'being present'. If you are thinking the thoughts, who is watching the thoughts?  
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sand_puppy, you may be one of the best doctors out there.
 
I too have struggled with the attendant stress of applying a highly detailed mechanistic model to a world that refuses to follow it. For me it started probably 25 years ago when Atlas Shrugged scared the shit out of me. “That was the book that scared me into taking my life seriously” I would tell people (and still do).
But we tend to get our truth from people and things that are already on our wavelength, especially when we are young. As a system builder type, I was super attracted to the idea of the economy as a machine and of philosophy as being an “eco-system of ideas”. You could take an idea or a fact and “run the tape forward” to see where it necessarily had to lead.
Applying this mental process to politics, economics and my personal life came to make me very angry and sad. It got to the point where I would announce to my friends that “to be a politician one must first be a coward”. It got to the point where I would see a beautiful young woman in a summer dress and end up thinking about rotting fruit.
For me the break out of this rut started from a personal crisis. One day, after about two months of seeing things that were impossible according to my narrative happening on a daily basis, I saw “the final thing” and I heard what sounded like a windshield snapping inside my head and I knew my model was utterly broken. It was pretty wild. I was never the suicidal type but I knew that my recent feelings of my life being “over” had finally come to pass.
After that I was “free” and ended up taking the sort of actions that I could take now that I was no longer constrained by a narrative that didn’t work anyway. And these actions, being informed by the principle of “whats the worst that could happen?”, ended up turning my entire life around.
I am glad to see that you have found some resources that helped in making progress on your journey and its interesting that yours are very different from mine when our problem (being limited by narrative) seems to be similar.
FWIW, I found a lot of help in Nassim Taleb’s work and the work of the behavioral psychologist types because they helped me to understand that the human minds ability to apprehend reality is not really “limited” so much as it is “laughable”. I think for smart guys this is really hard to understand because you get so used to being able to see 10 miles further than those around you. You start to confuse that for “knowing whats going on in the world” (at least I did). But unfortunately none of us know whats going on or can.
In that way, Im starting to get interested in more spiritual learnings. Not because “finding Jesus” in a very literal way is gonna help me (its just another narrative after all) but because I want find ways to experience life as a small being in an infinite universe as is my nature. If I can only be aware of, say 1% of all that happens, then happiness is in choosing what I focus on and not being judgmental of people for finding their own things to focus on.
And once I let myself off the hook for knowing everything and for saving western culture (which doesn’t want to be saved and which is really just a story we backfit onto actions we took in the past because they seemed like a good idea at the time), I didn’t have to be so angry about everything falling apart now.
I think there are some very basic truths (like that we are here to take care of each other) that are non-negotiable. I’m still annoyed by people who are full of certainty. I still believe in the arc of history and what we can learn from it. I still think we can see in broad terms where things are going over the long term, but any attempt to use that to time markets or elect the right president or argue someone into loving us is a fools errand. I still think that if we garden or stock up on HCQ we can make ourselves feel like we have at least some control over things.
 
But the freedom of not having control over other things is exhilarating too. I hope you get to enjoy the experience and that you keep sharing your thoughts here. I’d like to have an excuse to share mine ?
 

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Hello Mots,
First of all, sorry for writing such a long response to your comment. I hope you are so kind to take the time to read it :-).
Thanks for your comment! I haven’t read CHS’s book (yet). Maybe I should; it sounds interesting. What you write about valueing real wealth creation is true. We should focus on that way more than the easy-free-currency-games that the world is in now. People in the Netherlands and Belgium even consider their home to be a financial asset. Is that also the case in the US? This should change. So far we absolutely agree. I also agree that we should be open minded and think out of the box now and then. What we are discussing now, is absolutely out of the box :-).
But… :-).
I like Mike Maloneys distinction between money and currency. I believe that the invention of the concept of money is one of the greatest achievements of mankind. I also believe that I (me personally) am not capable of rethinking the concept of money. It is true that creating wealth should get more focus instead of creating and gathering more CURRENCY. But in my opinion it is not true that creating wealth is more important than gathering more MONEY. It is equally important. Money is a store of value. Creating value is converting A into B, with the use of energy. My personal energy is labor. So money stores my labor for later use and benefit. I am currently able to provide the energy to store a surplus of it for the times when I am not able to provide that energy anymore. I think there is nothing wrong with saving. I even think there is nothing wrong with investing and lending, and being compensated for that in the form of interests and profit. So, is that easy-free-money? Personally I think it is not.
The amount of currency that flows through the financial world is in no way reflecting the real economy anymore. Who can grasp the idea of a trillion? Who can imagine the wealth of bilionaires while I look inside my wallet and see a 50 euro note. Who can imagine being able to buy a house that is “worth” 10 annual incomes? It is depressing to live a world where people who do the least important work get the highest pays. I am not only talking about bankers and other thieves. Also people in sports, music, film, television entertainment get payed WAY, WAY too much for what it’s worth. That is what Covid showed to the world: essential workers were allowed to go to work during the lockdown. Is it a coinsidence that these essential workers get payed the least? This level of wealth difference is injust. There is too much money-for-nothing. I totally agree with you that we need a bottom up approach, instead of a top down. That means that these essential workers should actually be valued as such. This means that someone like Warren Buffett would get foodstamps! Because what he does is of no importance at all. So it counts for all hedgefund managers, rappers, moviestars, etcetera.
We should first of all get rid of fiat currency. Actually we should get rid of currencies at all.
You write: “Basically, the people at the bottom who create wealth should be the only ones who can issue new money, based on their promised wealth products”.
I think a feature of money should be that nobody is able to issue any of it. The amount is fixed. Therefor it is a real store of value.
I think gold and silver are the best suited for being money. Technology can help us to transfer gold and silver in an easy way, even if it is in nanograms. Transfering a claim on gold and silver should be considered as counterfeiting and should be punished by the highest penalty. If you lend gold, the gold is no longer yours. There is no difference between paying with the digital gold or the physical gold. The rate is 1 on 1. No gold-standard; Gold.
The example you gave about the stone chip is a nice one. It requires a sence of community. A sence of belonging. A sence of being a custodian of the world we leave behind. Being and feeling responsible. It removes the “One Step Away” that CM described. You cannot hide behind a rule or a law or a company. You, personally are responsibe for what you do and that can be good or bad. You can contribute by giving your labor right now, or by giving the labor you did in the past, by giving money.
In essence: we agree. But there is no sence in creating a new monatary system, without also working on the sence of community. When we would have a proper sence of community, there is no need in creating a new monetary system.

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Reading all the comments and it seems to me everybody thinks FED and currency is the problem. I don’t think the problem is technical on how to create a fair currency. I think the problem that we need to solve is can we create a system that will prevent financing wars, talking about real wars meaning bombing other countries. Looking at how we end up here, it’s all because of wars not because of bad currency. So I think your energy is spent on the wrong cause.

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Everyone I know has too much stuff. The kids have said they don’t want it because they, already, have too much stuff. How can we base an economy on a small group of people who have too much stuff? Or how about old retired people? Or a community of billionaires, Gates and Bezos and Buffet, what would they be doing?

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Nobody wants your stuff. Nobody wants your parents’ stuff (unless you’re a fortunate beneficiary or trust fund baby). Having been through a couple estate liquidations, many things assigned to an auction service or placed in a consignment shop eventually go unsold and ultimately donated (to some organization that might end up putting them in the “recycle” bin or dumpster anyway). Generally, from my experience at least, people don’t want (most of) your crap. I try to go on regular missions around the house to get rid of stuff, even if it’s just a couple items. It’s very uplifting, IMO. Think of it this way, if you die and someone has to go through all your crap, do you want them asking “why did this old coot have so many old twist-ties and rubber bands in his silverware drawer?” Never know when you might need one I guess (shoe fits, blah, blah, blah). Anyway, this may interest some: The Japanese Art of Decluttering and Organizing.

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When we can truly detach from the results of our labor - leaving the results up to God - that is when we are truly liberated.

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@ridgecrest said:

I think the problem that we need to solve is can we create a system that will prevent financing wars, talking about real wars meaning bombing other countries. Looking at how we end up here, it's all because of wars not because of bad currency.
I think bad currency is the facilitator of wars, when not the cause. And it's often the cause. Countries go to war to prevent revolution when currency is too debased - projecting the problem onto some foreign people. And even when that's not the case, countries that want to go to war finance it through debt, which requires bad currency. Consider the US financing WWII as an example. Without focusing on whether we were right to get into the conflict (I think we were), it remains true that it could only be financed by deficit spending, and only so many US War Bonds could be absorbed by the US public. The Treasury bought the additional that had to be purchased to provide the financing. That's a form of QE; ie, money debasement. We were able to retire a lot of that debt through reconstruction; and we were able to continue living the high life after reconstruction by exporting our deficit spending onto other nations through trade arrangements, and by devaluing the dollar vs. gold. Then came Vietnam on top of global military adventurism, featuring more devaluation of the dollar-to-gold ratio, and the eventual necessity of abandoning the gold peg altogether. That, in turn, has made it very easy to advance a perpetual state of foreign warfare and military "presence." Of course the world has benefited from the relative peace of Pax Americana, and we not less than anyone else. But the cost has exceeded the return, so debt has steadily increased. The untethering of currency has made constant inflation possible, and the creation of a massive debt headwind that we will not be able to get beyond. What we've lost as a result of unpegging is arguably much more than we gained. Jeff Booth makes exactly that case in his book, "The Price of Tomorrow," in which he (rightly) argues that advances in tech should produce deflation - that is, rising living standards based on getting more for fewer dollars. Or, put differently, the same purchasing power for fewer hours worked. Instead, we've all had to work faster and longer hours, and most barely stay even. No: most still fall slowly behind, as revolving credit debts and declining home ownership rates demonstrate. Imagine if we were still solidly tied to a gold peg. Wars could not be run by deficit: citizens would have to agree to be directly taxed (rather than covertly undermined) to pay for any foreign incursion; even for Pax Americana. That by itself would have prevented most of our post-1948 adventurism. The gains of technology would likely have come more slowly if cheap credit hadn't been around to fund most any harebrained idea, only some of which produced big advances, but the tech gains made would have been reflected in reduced prices. Then the once-promised labor-saving benefits of computers on every work desk (for example) could have led to shorter hours for the same purchasing power, not fewer employees doing more work for a diminishing real purchasing power. The US deficit wouldn't exist, either, if government had to pay back to citizens tomorrow the money it borrowed today, and the purchasing power of a dollar increased tomorrow - due to deflationary pressure rather than inflationary pressure. Taking on sovereign debt would then only make sense if its use led to improvements in domestic productivity. So, the highways system might still make sense, but funding increasingly dysfunctional educational outcomes would not. A drive for excellence would ensue. Nor would growing numbers of people be dependent upon government largesse just to get by, if each dollar would buy more tomorrow than it does today. In fact, the environment would be in better shape, too, because we'd all be making more prudent considerations about the gizmos we need, since if we buy one today we'll be paying a premium over what it would cost next year when the dollar buys more. We'd also want our purchases to last as long as possible because we're paying a premium each time we buy one today rather than tomorrow; so fewer would be manufactured, greatly reducing waste and pollution. And it would make more sense to save money today than spend it, because savings would gain value over time rather than lose value - so consumerism would decline, replaced by more emphasis on experiential sources of satisfaction and fulfillment. But back to your concern about proper focus: money is the root of evil. And of good. So much depends on whether it's "good" money or "bad." And that's not a moral judgment, but a valuation of money's soundness. To be sound, money needs to be pegged to the most scarce resource in existence. Historically, that's been gold. Its consistent, slowly expanding and fairly predictable volume has stabilized gold-denominated currencies for centuries. Only by cheating that peg has any country ever created "bad" money, and that's always led to war and ruination, or ruination then war. Some of us think Bitcoin is the emerging new "gold standard" because it is even more absolutely scarce and supply-predictable than gold. Plus, it cannot be shaved (as Roman coins were, as a means to inflate), or cheated (because of its immutable blockchain). But even those who are not yet convinced ought to at least be able to see that it is by allowing currency to "float" on the "full faith and credit" of one or another government that the door is opened and an invitation is extended to the sociopaths and power-mongers to capture government and use it for self-aggrandizing adventurism, by beggaring the common people to enrich the few through inflation and taxation, while frittering the common wealth away by engaging in acts of interference and aggression elsewhere for personal and class-level power, prestige, and plunder.
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I have been believing in stock market correction every year for 8-10 years and have kept money out of the "doomed markets." Unfortunately, every year (so far) the stock market has risen causing me to miss out on the gains, and to be viewed as ungrounded in reality by my more traditionally minded family.
Sand Puppy, I think I've been here about as long as you have and I went through similar phases, though not so dramatic. The alternative financial community has made a grave fundamental error (and I was a part of that as well), and continues to make it. Even on this site up until last week, there have been weekly warnings about an imminent stock market catastrophe over the last 10 years, with the inevitable charts of the South Seas Bubble or Tulip Mania shown as evidence that all bubbles revert to the mean. But the crash never happens. Or if we get a significant correction, the market always in due time comes back up and then gains even more. The critical mistake being made here is the timeline in question, and a failure to understand how IT IS INDEED DIFFERENT THIS TIME. Why is it different this time?
  1. The stock market bubble is piggy backing on the mother of all debt market (currency) bubbles. It is unreasonable to suggest that the stock market bubble will crash in this environment of zero interest rates and money printing. It will not crash until money fails, or shortly before. And a small stock market crash will not be the trigger of a larger debt market crash.
  2. The monetary system and stock market are directly and digitally controlled by "The Powers That Be". To this day, it ceases to amaze me how every week there can be people here and elsewhere arguing that the market moves based on fundamental market forces, while at the same time decrying the manipulation of "markets". Can they not put two and two together? I simply do not understand how this can come from people who claim to be able to see past the distractions. Cognitive Dissonance is the only explanation I can come up with. In this day and age where every word you type on the internet is recorded and every word you say is eaves dropped by your phone and recorded in your file, how can anyone actually believe that the stock market is NOT controlled by the central monetary authorities? And if so, then what rationale could possibly be used as a basis to argue that it will behave like the South Seas bubble? The endless warnings about how TSLA is going to crash to its true value next week are absurd. If it was going to crash, it would have crashed many years ago. How can people not understand that TSLA is a darling of the Powers That Be and is being supported by the central authorities? It is so blatant.
Neither of the above were the case in the medieval bubbles used as analogies to warn of the imminent stock market crash. Back then, money had real hard backing, real interest rates, and no government or bank had any control control of these "free markets" that experienced the bubble. So... my opinion is... yes, the alternative economics community is definitely on to something with their exposing of the corruption in the financial system, and that it will eventually crash. But they have a real problem putting into perspective the magnitude and extent of that corruption, and therefore don't do a very good job of predicting future trends and when the current "bubble" will end. If you look back over the last 10 years, the dominant narrative of what the alternative financial community has been saying was about the worst investment advice out there. But maybe they will end up being right, if you can hang in there that long. But it will end, that is for sure. We can have fun and try to figure out when, but ultimately the only people who know when it will end are The Powers That Be. And you can be sure they have a plan to prevent you from getting rich off it. So try to use your special understanding of the financial system to get wealthy off it BEFORE it crashes. So my advice is to be aware of and plan for the inevitable "end", but don't let it rule your life and don't lose sight of normal life too much, and don't position yourself so you can't prosper within the mainstream world as well, because for all we know this could go on another 15 years. Or maybe it will end next year. None of us know. Sometimes things change gradually. Other times things change dramatically and abruptly.
59

I agree with everything you said, however it’s easy to say than do. Think for instance if US uses a currency that respect fairness and good, how do you get China and other nations to follow? basically you will limit yourself from financing wars while others might not care and destroy you easily.
I’m going to tell you a story, when I was a kid, I used to ride a donkey to get to work (fields), now I ride a car, going back to that life is easier for me because I have that experience and my kids know that as well. The market/currency crush is not what scares me, I can fix that by starting from zero again at any age. Wealth for me is not money, wealth is what you are and what you can do as a person/community not how much junk you can buy. Problem in American culture is associating wealth with money, even banks ask you how much is your net worth? meaning how much money/assets you have. My net worth is not just assets, I can survive in desert without water, I can build a house with stone and dirt insulated, that’s wealth for me. However if a guy with a gun shows up at my door, I’m basically done because I don’t have security, so unless you can come up with a currency that will fix security for everybody, it’s not a problem for me.

60

“I’m going to tell you a story, when I was a kid, I used to ride a donkey to get to work (fields), now I ride a car, going back to that life is easier for me because I have that experience and my kids know that as well.”

 

I never rode no Donkey but I did grow up with much more “working class” expectations.   As a result I can buy the latest Ipad or fly to Europe and very much appreciate my status as a tourist in the upper middle social class.  

 

Like you, I can go back when the time comes and honestly have some fun doing it.   This is the greatest gift that my parents who were probably a bit on the young side to have kids could have given me.

 

I keep reading that we humans are so afraid of death that we drive ourselves mad with distraction.  I must be in deep denial because I’ve never felt expecially “afraid” of it.   I have a young son so the next few years would not be a good time to die but other than that, I keep thinking "shit man, enjoy this party for as long as it lasts and forget whatever the fuck Chuck and Nancy are up to.

 

There is simply too much going on for our brains to assimilate so focus on what pleases you instead.  I just spent my last weekend doing a poor job of this, but I did have some fun and I intend to do better next time.