…as I look at Europe I feel that Greece is wholly underrated. I see a Lehman moment there. So lots of Deflation. My thesis is that we have a serious recession in Europe, lots of debt destruction, and then paper printing. From Greece to Portugal, then Ireland, then Spain, and Italy? This seems like an issue that will be with us for many years. Plus the US has got to move on its DEBT too, time is a wasting. Iran? What an unknown there. If oil goes to $150 to $200 a barrel then the whole thing crashes that’s for darn sure. Iran will not be contained, and it will be long and arduous. OIL prices maintained at these costs will wreak havoc on the world economies. The supply/demand issue are razor thin now, and so the speculators will do what they do, and elevated OIL will be the outcome until the system breaks. By all indicators this will not be pretty. What insurance company will insure multi billion dollar vessels traveling through the tight channels in the Straights of Hormuz? China is not in good shape here, they have no stimulus that won’t super charge their inflation containment. Also their housing is really getting slammed, and dollars are being destroyed. Think US housing and you’ll have a visual where their headed. To my question then, I think, and would like very much some clarity on this. Is hyperinflation still out into the future? If my thesis is correct then we will have this wash, rinse, and repeat cycle for quite some time. That being deflation then inflation. The printing can only really begin once it is determined how much debt has been destroyed. Until then I feel the ECB and the FED are hand tied are my thoughts. If this is the case, and we have several of these fits and starts then as investors we could really do well for ourselves thus putting ourselves in a very good position to capitalize, and protect our families better our wealth. Please, anyone with a clear mind to what I am asking here would be beneficial to all I would suspect. Certainly to me. I respect everyone, and will read, and gather all opinions. So far this strategy, and preparation have benefited me very well but I really don’t know, I am insecure that I am missing something because of my still lacking due diligence. The efforts there, but my visuals are skewed a bit… Respectfully submitted
BOB
I’m one who reads you regularly, but cannot afford to subscribe. I just wanted to thank you, Chris, for doing this and putting it up for all to read/hear. I think a lot of us with less financial abundance see the real deal in the world today, and can use what is here. I know I appreciate The Crash Course and this site, and all the time and work you’ve put into it.
I can’t wait for the new site with the dashboard!
Thanks again, Chris, and all who participate. Sharing what we know and and have is the way we will survive and thrive. And it feels good too!
Bob, The inflation/deflation arguments have continued here for a long time. In our debt based money system debt = money. Default on debt is deflationary. Money printing to paper over the losses of creditors is inflationary. That gives them money to spend without having produced anything of value. As you pointed out, this could go on for a long time before the world is purged of bad debt. Hyperinflation is printers gone mad. I think that is unlikely to occur, but if oil prices continue to rise we will likely have the stagflation of the 70s when oil prices doubled three times in a decade. Currency values were halved in only a few years. That was severe inflation, but not hyperinflation. What happens if a black swan Lehman moment occurs is hard to predict. There could be widespread chaos. If Greece can be eased out of the eurozone without a financial meltdown then maybe the rest of the PIIGS problems can be resolved without complete collapse. I agree with you that Greece is a very underrated problem.
Stan
Hello Doug,I was surprised when I couldn’t find any threads on global climate change, I guess I was looking in the wrong place. My understanding was that the subject matter was relegated to the ‘dungeon’ so I suppose that is why I didn’t find the appropriate thread! It looks like there is quite a bit to sift through to catch up with the ongoing discussion! Thanks for the heads up.
Mark
Thanks Stan, I do understand what you are saying. Unfortunately ,until events unfold will I get my answers. I have a pretty good idea where this is going near term though, and what happens in Greece will not be contained, of that I will bet on. UK bond laws will see to that. Plus, if I’m Ireland, Portugal, Spain or even Italy I have taken solid notes of the treatment of Greece. The sovereigns, and the banks are in trouble. The banks are most certainly not telling the truth to their exposure to Greece, as our banks aren’t, so it all shakes out by March 20th, and the banks get exposed with the new LTRO due Feb 29th. These are exciting times for those who love this stuff, and as a novice I can say this stuff is a thrill for me. I may sound somewhat masochistic with my excitement, and observations but it is happening (not of my doing), and I have a front row seat. Lastly, Oil at $119 and change in Europe, and $100 and rising in the US is going to kill, just kill the consumer who is still reeling from 2008. Plus we have Iran come June or whatever. Our policy towards Iran is just plain stupid, a word I cringe at ever expressing but it is, stupid that is. Regards
Bob
Mark, I look forward to your research. Listen, I have thought that the volcanic eruption in Iceland and Russia had a play in the jet stream not moving too far South this winter. What can you tell me about this. In addition the El Ni no in the Pacific too. I am interested in everything so I apologize in advance if I am persistent. Thank you in advance.
BOB
Adam and Chris,I really enjoyed this format. We tend to hear lots about the problems of the moment over and over, but little about each of our individual concerns. This allows all of us to ask personal questions directly to Chris and get his candid response. Great job!
Chris said: "I have absolutely sort of lost my thread on – like sports really, really drove me hard. I could have told you all the stats on the Duke basketball team, where I used to go, and football teams and all of that. Somehow I find myself less concerned with things that used to be really passionate for me. So it shifted a lot in my life personally."
Chris, make 1 exception and watch the last 2 minutes of the Duke NC game - a classic!
Bob,Interest is good! Apologies are not necessary. Fair warning though, I sometimes disappear to odd parts of the planet for weeks at a time, so response times can be erratic.
I don’t think that the volcanoes are having an effect on the jet stream in the northern hemisphere this year. Although there was some injection of sulfer dioxide into the stratosphere the effects are to basically to reflect sunlight. Such eruptions can be globally important if they are 1) big enough and 2) occur near the equator. In higher latitudes they can be important regionally but they have to be big and the effect is going to be to cool summer temperatures. They don’t have detectable climate signals in winter because there is relatively little sunlight striking the region at that time of year to reflect.In any case, the amount of sulfuric acid drops relatively quickly, with most removed in months and almost all within 1 year.
With regard to El Nino, it is still on hold. La Nina isn’t giving up quite yet. We had a double dip and the current forecast is for ‘neutral’ conditions to occur sometime in the March-May time frame. I’m stuck waiting on El Nino to get the data I need for some work in Indonesian peat swamps! If you have a morbid curiosity for the current state of the tropical pacific ocean and all things ENSO check out NOAA’s site.
Mark
I was disappointed in the approach Chris would take as a president. He assumes, like all politicians do, that he has the answers and so would embark on a course of picking winners. Namely, mandating the use of natural gas for energy infrastructure, the use of solar hot water heaters instead of electric/gas/oil fired heaters and giving a billion dollars to industry to find a solution to the energy storage problem. Then he goes on to suggest we need a visionary leader. This is a favourite idea of business schools and I don’t buy it. We have had too many dangerous visionaries (Napoleon, Stalin, Hitler, Mao). In fact the only visionary speech that I can think of was that of Kennedy which launched the Apollo program and that may have been more a reaction to the Russians undoubted lead in space exploration at the time.
My point is that no individual has the answers that justify directing enormous funding in any particular direction because, as always, it means taking funding away from some sector of the economy and spending it somewhere else. Robbing Peter to pay Paul. Governments should not interfere in the economy at all other than to do their best to ensure a level playing field and very strict accounting of all economic flows. Not just money flows but energy and waste flows. I am referring to “externals”, the quaint euphemism for all those side effects of the human economy that affect our biosphere in detrimental ways. Government is the only structure that could realistically oversee such accounting. No doubt there would be much argument and difficulty in attaching monetary value to externals. The idea being to create a level playing field for the various forms of energy so that the market-place will make the decision based on the best information inputs and cost outcome. With regard to the use of carbon based non-renewables or renewables (essentially solar and nuclear), we are still far from creating a level playing field. There has to be some kind of cost attached to carbon which is at the heart of the energy industry which drives our world. Clearly, we are not going to be able to do away with non-renewables for a good while because of the need for base load power but leveling the playing field is essential. Not so much because it may help slow down climate change but because it does not make much sense to be using non-renewable energy right up to the point when we either run out or it just becomes too expensive. As Chris pointed out, if gas becomes the fuel of transport then it simply will not last as long as we may hope. It does not make sense to be using non-renewable anything. The natural world, outside the human world, sustains itself by constant re-cycling and renewal. Disasters happen and populations fall but nothing is wasted, other than lives, because everything goes back into the organic pool again. Conditions get better and populations flourish again. We, on the other hand, have allowed governments to indulge in a relentless devotion to welfare and healthcare. Nothing wrong with either as a safety net but we have gone from a sensible system of properly funded maintenance to one which is now beyond accounting and has become a moral hazard. All governments are borrowing recklessly from the future to cover present promises. Pharmaceutical and medical companies receive endless research grants and subsidies while we become less fit and more obese. Not only are we wasteful of resources but we lay waste to all around us. It is estimated that between one third and one half of all food production is wasted. That suggests that a similar amount of land which might otherwise be part of the natural environment has been ploughed or fenced in for livestock.
I also think Chris was a little glib in the way he slid out of the knotty issue of global warming. If behavioral economics is right in suggesting that humans pay attention to the clear and immediate and discount the future, then why are we not using that knowledge to more effectively manage our future? It is all very well to be looking for technological solutions, the magic wand, but in reality so much of the human predicament is caused by human behavior about which we have amassed a considerable store of knowledge and yet we seem incapable of using this knowledge to persuade people to act in their better interest. At this point we could come full circle in my argument and end up with the idea that someone, or government, knows best and use the power that government has to coerce people into doing what is thought to be the right thing. How do we resolve this dilemma? What are the civic structures and channels along which power can operate that makes intelligent use of all inputs? I think that a lot of our problems stem from the idea that there are no limits. I am not American, but English and have lived in Australia for 35 years, but sense that placing limits on anything goes against the American ethos. This is ironical in that we all have one hugely inconvenient limit that cuts in on average around the 80th year for those of us lucky enough to live in the first world. Philosophy and religion are no longer a substantial part of the education we provide our children and so that this single extraordinary difference between us and other living beings, that we know that we will die, is barely reflected upon by most (younger) people today. How many know of the circumstances of Socrates death? There is a lesson to all of us there.
Another thing that struck me was that Chris owned up to “constantly checking the price of gold, oil, stock markets, credit default swaps.” Fair enough, I do the same myself and I realize that Chris is seeking information as an “early warning indicator.” An early warning indicator of what and with what intention of action in mind? Is this really useful information? All the data suggests that most people lose in the markets because they follow the herd in at the top and out at the bottom. Right now, for example, there is such a one way sentiment with regard to the price of gold that I really have my doubts that the gold price will pan out the way people are expecting. Equally, there has been huge expectation that the US stock market would fall but it has gone up relentlessly, despite every fundamental reason for it not to do so. My point here is that there is no such thing as an investment anymore, except perhaps in oneself and one’s family or community, because the entire financial world has turned into a casino where it is all but impossible to ascribe a fair nominal value to anything. Any asset can only be looked at in terms of relative value and risk. I simply do not understand values any more.
How does one make sense of the latest $500 billion of support from the Federal Reserve to Europe. I remember only 30 years ago when it was optimistically announced by the WHO or the FAO that the under-nourished of the world could easily be fed for around $3 billion a year! It is no wonder that usury is condemned in the Bible and by Moslems. Why is that? Could it be that previous civilizations have seen what happens when people get paid for lending money rather than brains and effort. Banking and lending is not a Dutch or English invention. It has been going on for thousands of years and I am sure the ancients found out what happens when money is created out of thin air but charged for by those who have no skin in the game. Is this not something we should be discussing instead of the price of gold next year?
Thank You Mark.
So here is the culprit.
It is the loopy jet stream.
Looking at the animation of the Gulf Stream I am struck by how narrow it is and how chaotic.
Being a visual kind of guy I offer you this picture
You see that thin blue smear that the sun shines through? Well, thats it folks. Thats the atmosphere. Our common waste dump. And we want to dump how many tonnes of coal gas effluent into it?
930 billion short tons.Perhaps that might not be wise. You may want to breath the stuff.
Unless you are on SRI’s of cause. In which case megga death will not worry you. (Note to self: Stock up.)
…I read every word you wrote, and everyone is certainly entitled to ones opinion.
I absolutely, positively, without question, would, during my first minute in office begin a strong, clear, out the the gate sprinting, never look back, build out of our nations natural gas asset. Manage this industry to get a real sense of what natural gas we actually have before allowing cars to be added to the natural gas mix. Trucks would be my initial earmark,
In addition I would give as a prize 10 Billion dollars, not 1 Billion as Chris suggests to the first nerd who proves up a commercial sized battery storage system. I would then share the technology with the world if all agree to verifiably dismantle nuclear bombs.
I would in conjunction to this, modernize our electrical grid, and make as a goal to capture what we produce in the form of electrical energy, and lose to the atmosphere (30% wasted every day).
I would build out the electric rail.
I would require the phasing out of all wasteful gadgets on all appliances (I hate flashing 12:00 on anything) and require these appliances to set the standard for home conservation of energy.
I would require that all buildings monitor, and control the wasteful lighting of their buildings when not in use.
I would raise the taxes on gasoline, and all fossil fuels. It would be a tax based on the MPG of your car or truck. If you drive an SUV then you get taxed the most. For example: 10 to 15 miles per gallon pays $.10 cents extra per gallon.15 to 25 pay .7 cents and any car getting 25 to 30 miles a gallon pays $.05 cents. Anything over 30 miles per gallon pay no taxes. All these funds are segregated, and used only for the training of the work force needed for the maintenance and construction of this electrical infrastructure.
I would put out for bid the build out for wind farms from the Texas panhandle up to the Canadian border of North Dakota. I would use any dessert, for the mass production of sun driven electrical energy.
Alongside all of these projects I would have experts in the field of wild animals to quickly asses , remove, and place in similar environment the beautiful creatures of this world that would be stressed.
I would use all offshore coastal winds to produce electricity, and its waste products as fuel for our countries needs.
I would require that the utility companies install solar panels on all homes, maintenence them, and then regulate a fair monthly fee for this expense. I would add this energy to the smart grid, and also for the use as a hot water energy source at said residence.
I would build depots where trains would bring all goods to a central location to be picked up by truck, and have those trucks use compressed natural gas to move these goods.
I would order that all environmentalist (of which I am one) have their mouths duct taped for a period of 10 years, and use all common sense measures to accomplish our national goals.
I would ban the use of all plastic containers, and let the market figure out a bio degradable container that would be beneficial to the environment. It must decompose completely within 2 months of some knucklehead who tosses it from their vehicle.
I would then order that at the completion of the electrical build out the removal of all dams where harm to the ecosystem has been identified. All farm land down stream would be exempt if harmed.
I would re-stock all rivers and lakes with fish common to that area.
Then I would sit, and have my first cup of coffee…Then ponder my next hour in office.
BOB
…and I have been pondering what I have accomplished in my first hour in office with every sip.
I have removed gazillions of tons of CO2 from the atmosphere.
I have ended the nuclear arms race, and probably nuclear power (although I like this power source on ships)
I have brought home all my babies fighting or planning to fight wars over energy.
I have created millions of jobs.
Essentially I have saved the planet, and all of mankind because I incentivize some really smart individuals into inventing a battery that business can now use to asses their energy costs for the foreseeable future.
I can visualize that in 20 years all internal combustion engines used in cars and light duty trucks are now a relic of the past.
I have lessened the cost on health care because all harmful pollutants associated with the burning of fossil fuels.
I have hired as my Czar Dr. Chris Martenson, and given him all necessary powers to accomplish this mandate. He has hired Erik.T as his mouth piece/bouncer/enforcer.
I have not spent any tax payer dollars of any consequence on this electrical build out. I have left this project to the private sector, and have only provided the vision. "Ask not what your country can do for you, but rather, what you can do for your country (the world)". I love Australia, the English too…BOB
PS: Adam now works for the White House, and facilitates and cleans up all the damage done by Erik.T vigor towards his new position. Adam is very busy. LOL
Excellent feature that needs to continue. For me, Chris’s insight and commentary is the filler that connects all the seemingly unrelated world data into a cohesive picture. I particularly enjoy that Chris balances the darkness with suggestions and resources that will assist you to not only survive but in fact improve your quality of life.
I’m looking forward to the next podcast.
You won’t get elected until things get a whole lot worse.
You got my vote!
This is awesome, please field questions on a periodic basis.
I had not heard this and wouldn’t have looked for it there. I don’t know this group or there accuracy but they are discussing all of the various cycles in a very synthetic way that is interesting. I was surprised a by the emphasis on the Iceland volcano. I’d have to check, but I didn’t think that the statospheric emissions had been so high or so great. The effects in winter should be smaller than they were in the summer.
Cheers,
Mark
Like timeandtide, I was surprised at Chris’s answer about what he’d do if he were president, and also at the previous answer, about natural gas, though for different reasons. Subsequently, I was disappointed at Chris’s answer on global warming.
The one on natural gas appeared to be missing a few things. Firstly, is this shale gas boom sustainable at current prices? What are the real figures if it is? I’ve heard recent commentary about 11-20 years of gas been more likely, if the boom is real. Resource figures are being downgraded all the time. There is the additional snippet that shale gas may be as bad as coal for the environment, with methane leaks. So looking for 10, 20, 50% take up of natural gas for transport seems crazy.
The president answer appears to be one that falls into the trap of all presidential hopefuls - who can all figure out how to keep this great nation of yours great, how you can get back on the growth path (though Chris didn’t state that explicitly), creating meaningful jobs and leading the world in some technology. And so on. I thought the next 20 years is not going to look anything like the last? If this is an example of Chris as president, the change is purely in superficial stuff, not in anything long lasting, despite the investment in permaculture (which was about the only thing that seemed good). I’m surprised he didn’t mention education as the first thing he would do - we need to tell ourselves an accurate story of where we are, so people need to be educated and not plied with constant messages about the consumer society and celebrity and technological miracles.
Then on to the environment. Perhaps the answer about natural gas not including the notion that it could be as bad as coal shoudl have hinted at the side-stepping answer on global warming. Heck, so what if it raises emotions? It isn’t the only thing on this site that does. If it’s important, it’s important. Period. There wasn’t much hint in Chris’s answer that he thinks global warming (and its attendant climate change) is a problem that needs to be addressed now (despite extreme events increasing and becoming more extreme). Yes, if people are taking actions as a result of resource depletion that would be equally at home from a global warming perspective then great, but Chris dismissises the global warming argument as a means for gettting people to take action. What if the message about peak oil doesn’t win people over? Perhaps an argument about the environment will. So use all weapons, if you want people to take action. In fact, the environment, as a whole, gets very little space here. What about the 6th extinction event that we’re in? What about the crashing of phytoplankton levels and the overall state of the oceans? And a whole range of other things. We need the big picture, Chris, and all of the factors that go into the next 20 years being nothing like the last 20.
Tony
As someone who actively works in the field of climate science and its impacts, I obviously believe it to be very important but I can understand Chris’ reticence to make it a major platform given the political firestorm that has been lit around it. I am quite certain that this could distract from the central message that the "Crash Course" and Chris have been trying to make. It is hard, very hard, to stay up on climate science because it is 1) evolving rapidly, 2) involves many fields, and 3) often technical. The results are rarely definitive and there is no end of well-intentioned or downright nefarious disinformation spashed across the internet. It is difficult to separate good information from bad. Given the amount on his plate with economic, energy and resource issues, I doubt Chris could in good faith act as an information scout for climate change too, simply due to time constraints if nothing else. That said, the comments above seem to indicate that many people see this as an important issue that should be part of our collective debate on how to best prepare. I would agree.
Perhaps the situation has evolved to the point that we can have a mature debate about the issue without the political baggage. Just in the last year, ‘skeptical’ scientists, funded by those who most want the issue to go away, and accounting for most if not all of the supposed shortcomings of the previous science, confirmed that this is a real and growing problem (Global warming ‘confirmed’ by independent study). Can we now drop the ideological disagreements and moral arguments to just concentrate on defining how much of a problem we have and how we can best respond to it? Chris is right that much of the reponse to the Crash Course addresses climate change actions anyways, but what is missing is what climate change means for how we can live and what we will have to adapt to in the future. For what it is worth, my view of the issues goes as follows:
- Economic upheaval - ongoing with worse imminent
- Peak oil - inevitable and in process
- Resource scarcity - links directly to peak oil
- Climate change - a wild card, probably lowest priority for immediate preparation, ultimately the biggest problem we face
For those who are interested, there is a long time thread on climate issues (Global climate change: is it worth brushing off?) and I recently started a new thread (The Definitive Global Climate Change (aka Global Warming) thread) in the so-called basement.
Chris, if you get on the ballot I’ll vote for you! If you get elected I’ll be amazed and delighted. If you need a science advisor, give me a call.
Mark
Another great interview with Chris by Stefan Molyneaux…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-eyaXvZpwPY
gets most interesting a around t t= 40 mins. for the impatient / experienced…
I just love the cross-fertilisation… political, economic, personal, geopolitical, etc…
and in the spirit of unification of understanding… and having consumed 75cl of a lovely ozzie vintage…
Have some RPF.