Please don’t expect Commissar Whitmer to exhibit any common sense of rationale when implementing & extending our lockdowns CC… Not sure if you saw her presser yesterday, but the State employees that she’s temporarily laying off will be automatically enrolled so they don’t have to endure the pain of using the website…;0)
Truly bizarre…
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.html Implications: 1) CFR is about 0.5% 2) test-and-trace – probably won’t slow infections with 2.3 million people infected. That particular horse has left the barn already. It will, however, get people treated early, which will end up saving lives. We really want to leap into a Great Depression for a disease with an 0.5% CFR?I've been digging hard but cannot lay my hands on the test sensitivity and specificity. The Wadsworth test, if that's the one used (and I think it is), comes with a data sheet that very unhelpfully only says: "However, specificity for the Wadsworth Center (WC) SARS-CoV-2 IgG test has been determined to be 93 to 100%. " Uhhhh, that's a mighty big range with huge implications. Which is it? 93% or 100%? It says nothing, nada, zippo, about the sensitivity of the test, which is its ability to correctly deliver a true negative. Here's a handy table I found that parses through the false positive rates associated with different Spec/Sens combos at a given true incidence rate of 5%.
So we really need to see the test parameters before we can determine anything. Also the sampling methods. Was it truly random? Hope so.
Best I can determine from limited number of texts from him, he waited to go to hospital until he was in really bad shape, he got HCQ just a few hours before he was put on a ventilator. Which follows with Chris’s statement, it will not work if you wait too long.
WRT MI, Whitless has a 65% favorable rating.
I have been part of a test validation effort. Our test will test both IgA (which arises from infected mucosal membranes such as the mouth and gut, as well as the lining of the bronchial tree), and IgG. It looks like the test has a 97% PPV, and that is assuming only about a 2-4% prevalence rate. So I look forward to excellent prevalence data being available in the very near future and the ability to finally solve 1) true CFR, 2) Chris’s scenario A vs B, and 3) try to determine what the real risk factors are for bad outcomes. If will be interesting to see if the Wadsworth test results are replicated.
I know we are scenario A. The fact that everyone has already been infected with a disease the consistently shows impaired and permanent lung damage even in the healthy population is troubling. People want to believe this to reduce the death rate - but the truth a high death rate would be a more welcomed scenario. As it would mean less infected less permanently disabled people. YOUNG PEOPLE
It looks like the test has a 97% PPV, and that is assuming only about a 2-4% prevalence rate.That sounds excellent! I'd trust those results. Any chance people could self-administer like a home pregnancy test? I ask because it might be a good idea to include a sample from people who've been staying faithfully at home in the sample (because just testing people wandering about might bias towards people with that tendency). So maybe mail a bunch of tests out to a random sample and offer a $100 if the test is properly run and returned.
“Here’s Everything We Should Be Doing Now To Beat The Coronavirus” (4/23/20)
https://youtu.be/C-w8umI_IE8
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/929253?nlid=135188_5653&src=wnl_newsalrt_daily_200423_MSCPEDIT&uac=214599CN&impID=2357488&faf=1
I read this and the doctors comments about this article in Medscape. They know its a crock. Really makes me wonder if a big Pharma, notably one currently in the news isn’t behind some of this bs. Will be skeptical about anything I read in Medscape in the future. This reminds me of Clara Peller in the Wendy’s commercial: “Where’s the zinc”
As often happens with these kind of articles… the comments section tends to restore my faith in humanity. Here are a few choice comments from the article you linked to;
Dr. Laurentiu Dinescu2 hours ago
I can only say that I am a living testimony of being "saved" by Hydroxychloroquine. After 2 days of severe symptoms of myalgias, arthralgias, chills, rigors, terrible headaches, gasping for air, dry cough, chest pressure and strangely - neuropathic symptoms, with a positive COVID test, everything changed after just taking the first dose of 200mg of Hydroxychloroquine (in combination with Azithromycin). In just a few hours it was like night and day. And while healing didn't happen overnight and there were milder relapses and remissions along the way, I can't ignore the absolute clear improvement after taking that first dose. My father (86 y/o) in my opinion was "brought back to life" by the same medication after being close to death. Similarly, from a group of 4 friends (healthcare workers) who carpooled on their way back from their hospital with the masks on, when everything was just starting here in the USA, and social distancing was at its inception, 3 took Hydroxychloroquine and one didn't. All tested positive, and the only one who died was the one who didn't take Hydroxychloroquine. Coincidence? Confounding factors? Luck? Maybe... but I know what I personally experienced and no such study as this will change my opinion. (I know so many others who went through similar experiences and are not accounted for in studies like this)...Thousands and thousands of anecdotal people.. what to do? And this thoughtful comment;
Dr. thomas bennett2 hours ago
Why not do an article on the study by Raoult on 1061 hospitalized patients treated with HCQ and Azithromycin with 91% success rate and one death. You keep referencing the 36 patent pilot study--why? His work has moved forward. Why not review Rauolt's letter critiquing the lack of credibility of the VA study in its construct and conclusions. Why not review the VA director's disparaging comments of the VA study. This study and this publication are worthless and fail across the board. The patients should be treated earlier with HCQ. These patients with multiple have co-morbidities that could be a cause of death. HCQ has an excellent safety profile and has been used for >50 years with extremely rare cardiac events. If there is a problem, it would be Azithromycin with a known QT interval effect. In patients that are taking other meds that affect the QT interval, then use a different antibiotic---Augmentin?So many calling BS on the hitstream media.. more people are waking up than you can imagine;
Dr. Maria Rivero2 hours ago
Bad Study retrospective observational no controls and patients with severe disease. Basically a hit piece. Really criminal if this dissuades doctors from using Hydroxychloroquine in less sick patients. Costa Rica has had very low mortality. OMG a co-author has received funding from Gilead who manufactures the competitor expensive drug. Wonder ?if there is any connectionAnd this comment will be of interest to dedicated PP.com readers;
Nancy Schort2 hours ago
I am a dentist. This is anecdotal but I hope helpful. I always have taken Quercetin 1000mg, zinc 30 mg and Vitamin C 1000 mg any time I suspected a cold or flu starting which for me always starts with a sore throat. I have usually had good results so after babysitting my sick 6 year old grandson, who was diagnosed with pneumonia mid-February and starting to get a sore throat a few days later, I took my standard OTC preventative mix. I had chills, sweats and a high 103 fever that night which could have gone higher in the night but I was much improved the next day. I took 500mg. Quercetin twice a day for two days along with500 mg. Vit C and 15 mg. zinc. I had no idea what it was that I had but had thoughts it could be the virus we were just hearing about in China. Then I found out my grandson’s best friend had been in Asia visiting family over the winter Holidays and been ill. I am scheduled to get the serum antibody test soon. Researching Quercetin, it is an ionophore that acts to allow zinc through the cell membrane to block the replication of virus. I am just passing this anecdotal report to help anyone interested so it may be of interest to have these OTC’s on hand for immediate use.People.. Doctors.. they get it more and more;
Dr. Steve Gormican3 hours agoAnd finally this Doctor who just wants to save lives... sounds like a FU to Fauci to me;The treated group was about twice as sick as the control group and had about twice as much death.But the treated group had much less need for ventilators.There are two phases of Covid-19.The first phase is virus replication and the second phase is the cytokine overreaction of the immune system.HCQ works to diminish viral replication.If you give it to those in the cytokine phase, it should not work. Unfortunately, the study and the analysis have political overtones.
Dr. Timothy C Hlavinka MD2 hours agoThere is often un-mined Gold in the comments section. Yeah, they are not all positive.. but the vast majority are as above. Best regards, and good night from information warrior Jim H.@Dr. MICHAEL ATKINS Again, there is a mechanism of action, initial in vitro benefit, early trial benefit. And a SERMO survey of 3000 docs that ARE TREATING COVID it is considered the most effective therapy COVID 19. What are you going to do when there is no time for your Sacred Cow randomized RCT? What are you going to tell that patient right in front of you?
Another study gave PCR tests to 214 pregnant women who gave birth at the New York–Presbyterian Allen Hospital and Columbia University Irving Medical Center between March 22 and April 4, 2020. Of those, 33 women (15.4%) turned up positive for SARS-CoV2, although only 4 had symptoms on admission, and 3 more developed fever before discharge from the hospital.
See: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2009316
The serum study discussed in the New York Times article took place a week or two later, so it seems plausible that the infection rate would have increased somewhat. Also, the PCR study of pregnant women would not have turned up any positive results from subjects who had completely recovered from an infection, even though they might still have antibodies and thus would test positive for a serum study.
So, the results of the obstetrical study seem generally consistent with the later serum study, and both of them point to widespread public exposure to the virus already in the New York area.
I am not sure 15% or 20% or anything close to this have already been infected in NYC. And I certainly would not bet my life on it. We know that the CFR is at least 1% in NYC - because the state as a total has a mortality rate of .001. I am not going to waste time with the math , if you cant figure that out, nothing I say here will matter. So, if the 8.5M population in NYC had the infection with a 1% death rate you would be around 85k dead. we have about 1/5 still rapidly climbing. So, again, this suggests minimally, by what you are observing, as CFR of at least 1%. My guess, is this number can change , it can actually go higher, and time will tell. However , it cannot go lower. So while peopel are trying to make this less than it is suggesting more are sick than know… its not going to get anywhere what some people are saying… .002 or .006 like some authorities… we are already minimally at .01 , and quickly working higher. All deaths in NY state, not just city, would have to stop completely today with no more to have 1% CFR. One caveat, CFR is a variable based on quality and quantity of healthy care. However, for my purposes , what is the CFR without medical intervention… ?That is the only real importance in a true epidemic. As, if we do nothing or do it wrong, the medical community will collapse.
Here is an excellent video that discusses death rate by age, hydroxychloroquine studies, coronavirus spread rate / new NY death rate study, etc. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fn2yk5SbGiw
I am skeptical of the NY spread rate numbers for the following reasons: (1) how accurate is the test they are using (2) the government really want the economy running again; (3) it makes no sense to have such a low fatality rate as we have the Diamond Princess data - [a closed sample] where 2% of those infected died (though they were older and we now have the hydro / Z pack / zinc treatment). If the new numbers are correct they most likely are heavily weighed to those under age 60 (the governor mentions the tested group was out and about in New York and probably did not include the older population group).
That’s an interesting statistic but I’d want to know if women in late pregnancy are more at risk to contracting the virus due to their interactions. Midwife visits, hospital visits, pregnancy groups, other parents, if they have other kids, and so on. It may be that 15% is to high (or too low) a figure to apply to the general population.
If you look at the efforts worldwide to assess infection rates in populations, they are all saying the same thing. Some use PCR testing, some use antibody testing. It all adds up to a large population of asymptomatic positives, a very high R0, and - I believe - a CFR well below 1. That’s my best guess based on all I’ve seen.
[There is also strong evidence - at least to me - that this virus seems to do poorly in hot and humid climates. For some reason, death rates in these areas appear to be low, as are visible infection rates. The details will only be known for sure long after the fact.]
You can quibble with the quality of individual testing efforts, but the overall picture that appears is remarkably consistent.
Sure, bending the curve so hospitals don’t get swamped - that makes sense. We did that. Now let’s declare victory and go home. If infections rise - so what? Hospitals aren’t swamped, and this thing is so infectious, at this stage, there is no hope of stopping it. Not in the wider society anyway.
Early treatment? You bet. Test and test and test. Anyone with the sniffles gets tested, and then dosed with our works-mostly HCQ remedy, with zinc added. I’m all for that. Early treatment may well prevent that lung damage from happening. But pretending we can stop it? Not. Gonna. Happen. Individually, sure. You may be rich or prepared enough to shelter in place. But that won’t work society-wide. The vast majority are not rich (Pelosi!) or prepared enough (PP members) - that’s just how it is.
I strongly believe that a depression (caused by a long lockdown) will kill a lot more people than this particular corona virus.
I also think China would be very happy to have us do just this. They over-reacted, and now they want us to do exactly the same thing too.
I think Sweden’s approach will be shown to be correct - for their overall society. After the fact.
And the fun part? The Internet Is Forever. All of our comments will still be around. We can see, 10 years from now, just how close each of us was to “the truth” of what was going down.
This study in the NEJM shows pregnant women just as likely to get Covid and the percentage of people with the disease is much higher than thought. DUH The large majority have mild or no symptoms. Why the heck aren’t they studying what is intrinsic in the immune system of pregnant women that keeps them from having severe cases? They focus the study on how many have the disease not the really important aspect. Nearly 88% were asymptomatic virtually all mild cases. Hard to believe they interpret the study for the wrong reasons?
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2009316?query=featured_coronavirus
Gosh Dave I agree with almost everything you said with the exception of testing. Those in power couldn’t get it together to test in the beginning of the Pandemic. It was allowed to enter our country and run rampant and now the excuse is lets make up and test late in the game. Maybe that was the plan all along. With enough fear and pain people will give up their rights to their own bodies and agree to be tested for whatever and whenever and be injected with anything those in power wants. Your body is now owned by “officials” and the government (big pharma). No thanks, I am not interested in testing of any kind. Its not needed. The virus will become endemic.
And the well being of the people was handled very badly. People are going to run out of money and food and hope and be pissed. Especially when they figure out it was bailouts for the rich and oppression for the poor. After that I suspect there will be a few transformers, dams, bridges, and unexpected targets from people who have had enough. The obsession with the virus will quickly change. Granny’s prediction. And we thought people were unprepared for a Pandemic, wait until they figure out what they are really unprepared for. We are only at the beginning of an era of pain.
Or we can listen to the music and the wizards pronouncements of the best is yet to come. Which do you see?
Thats easy. Most all pregnant women take pre-natal vitamins.
There is no money in preventing the disease with nutrition and supplementation.
My 2 cents.
AKGrannyWGrit
Akgwg, guess it’s time to change my vitamin regimen 
IMO they need to understand what is intrinsic in the innate immune system of pregnant women that naturally prevents them from having severe cases. Whatever that is, I want some of it…without the pregnancy
Hi Mpup,
Apart from the reason AKGrannyWGrit gave: women are biologically stronger than men until their menopause. Why? Their immune system is tailored to ensure that she and the unborn child (in that order) have the highest likelihood to survive. Nature is really badass!
So I’m afraid that this advantage is solely for women, and especially for pregnant women. Men are, biologically, really the weaker sex. I tell this often to my wife: it is better if they do the hard labor and let us men play with cars, sports and drink beers, we are just sooo sensitive…
Granny-
Uh, I didn’t say anywhere that the testing would be involuntary. Only voluntary. Only if you have sniffles and you WANT to be tested. Nobody gets thrown up against the wall and has a swab shoved up their nostril. Not in my plan anyway.
Just have rapid testing available for anyone who wants it. Which wasn’t the case at the start. Test, and rapidly treat - the willing. This isn’t China.
I mean, I guess I thought it was obvious, but now I see I wasn’t clear.
If you make testing involuntary, and you make quarantine-if-positive involuntary, then everyone with the sniffles will avoid testing at all costs, due to human nature. If, like Iceland, you make it an option open to everyone, and then you just rely on people to be good citizens and self-quarantine if they test positive, (and to accept treatment if they would like to have it - and make it free), then everyone feels quite comfortable to get tested, because there is no downside. And - up to them if they want to accept the free treatment.
This is why the … stupid CCP approach will never work long term. They are pushing against basic human nature. Which is just guaranteed to fail. And it costs a whole lot more energy while you’re doing it, too.
Iceland rules. If only it weren’t so freaking cold…