It seems that Nursing Homes serve as a pretty sensitive canary in the coal mine. Can we debunk Scenario B on the grounds that if the disease was so contagious in an asymptomatic fashion that it had already saturated the population by orderS of magnitude beyond detection, then it should have inoculated Nursing Homes within said population? We’ve already seen what happens when it gets into these care facilities. The B scenario can then only be supported if it is argued that a less dangerous strain is responsible for this unmeasured, theoretical and widespread infection.
You must take into account , how and who is being tested along with population within the sample.
For instance, Italy does have a much higher aged population than other countries. So lets say that in italy , average age of infection is 62, where in South Korea its 42. That is a big difference. Even data from china was consistent to show , less total infections in elderly with a larger percent of total deaths. So, the elderly represent a a very disproportionate share of burden by this illness. So when compare , lets say, so korea to italy, you should get a shocking disparity. And we do see this.
Then you must account for surveillance. The more cases you catch the lower the CFR is , we clearly can see this in Germany and So Korea , which are doing a good job here.
Finally, you have to account for burden on the medical system. This is obviously capable of infecting more than the flu, and elderly people are exceptionally vulnerable. Once , your medical system is beyond capacity , bad things will happen , increasing deaths needlessly. We are seeing this in Italy, and will likely see in larger metros in the US.
The take-away:
CFR is something influenced by your population ( retirement communities will see higher CFRs)
CFR is also influenced by surveillance, which has a 2-fold effect. It controls spread and decreases ratio or deaths to cases. But also helps to keep the burden off the medical system and thereby minimizes needless deaths.
So, in the end, all these countries can be fairly correct, and the disparity can be accounted for.
What this tells us, Is this may not be as deadly over-all, But if we do not take action , we can cause a lot of needless deaths by extremely overwhelming the medical system. Meaning our actions today can actually influence the death rate. Its not a hard and fast exact. We have control.
I listened to John Campbells daily up-date today. He said LA was buying test kits from South Korea. Then wondered why the CDC wasn’t supplying them?
Me too! Why is the CDC so incompetent?
Thanks Sparky, you are awesome!
AKGrannyWGrit
Gummint
This is a must watch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5yD3o6_QGJI
Video describes Tedros’ multi-decade track record of almost unbelievable criminality. Involvement in terrorism, mass murder, tortue, covering up cholera epidemics, denying medical treatment to children, other massive human rights abuses.
Chris made the point multiple times that wearing masks is the answer. If only it were that simple. Masks were predominantly made in Asia, and they are consuming all they can make under present conditions. We need to ramp up mask production on a grand scale! We may need to extend the lock downs until masks are sufficiently available for everyone to have supplies and wear them when out in public.
At the risk of being redundant, I’ll share again a video produced by Japanese media of how China is managing today. Four things are being done; 1) Anyone from outside the country is required to go through a 14 day quarantine, 2) Everyone is required to wear masks while in public, 3) Social distancing is strictly administered, and 4) temperatures are being checked continually at the entrance to public places which are channeled using barriers to control the flow of people. Watch this video for the full story but it looks as if they are managing to function in a limited fashion while controlling further outbreaks.
I would think we could use adherence to this process as a basis to eventually lift air travel bans and 14-day quarantines as long as the traveler is not running a temp at departure and arrival.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=13&v=YfsdJGj3-jM&feature=emb_logo
https://thetyee.ca/News/2020/03/26/Pandemic-Plot-Arc/
This underscores how social distancing will take time to show effect. We are well conditioned to have/expect everything fixed in a hurry, as if in a 30 minute tv show. There is no fast turnaround time for this, health wise, financially or economically. Patience while under grave threat is needed, however difficult that may be.
I suppose being patient is tied directly to trust in authority. I can be patient if I have confidence that correct, science and data based decisions are being made for the benefit of everyone, and not only vested interests or political ends. There are pockets of that going on across the globe, but not enough for me to give my complete trust. That is where my fears come from.
While all countries have the same end goals in this crisis (at least I hope that is the case), the approaches are not the same, which is reasonable considering the different ideologies, politics & leadership styles. But what is the point of any given country ‘A’ doing a great job when neighbouring country ‘B’ undermines those efforts by remaining stuck in denial, indecision and ignorance, which clearly we do not have the luxury of time for?
How far must we fall, what must we lose, what price must we pay before people, managers, bankers, and leaders realize it is not all about them?
Jan
Can anyone please share the home recipe for disinfectant in a spray bottle?
We have isopropyl alcohol, vinegar, bleach, hydrogen peroxide and water.
What is the recommendation for a mixture in a spray bottle?
at https://homerdixon.com/pandemic-log/
by a Canadian professor and author - he’s good at synthesis and complexity, and his takes are very like Chris’ but it’s always interesting to see different approaches. His are very academic.
Thanks dtrammel - that is a very interesting interview. Gives the most practical, down-to-earth explanation for the sense of urgency to get this thing under control. Doesn’t pretend to knowledge he doesn’t have, but clearly expresses the fix everyone is in. And clearly explains where the lines between rich and poor start to get fuzzy in a situation like this.
If a person tests positive for Covid 19, doctors are not allowed to prescribe hydroxychloroquine to Outpatients. The reason (or excuse) is it has not been scientifically proven. If they get worse with fever or shortness of breath they are then told to go to the hospital.
There they are asked if they want to participate in a trial for the antiviral remdesivir or try taking hydroxychloroquine. I believe they can not be taken together. Which one are patients likely choosing(sold on)?
The one that is not being attacked and dismissed by the corporate media. The one that costs a whole lot more and which the WHO pushes. The one that China has increased massive production of.
Last week, Gilead said it has patented remdesivir in China, including filing applications for use on coronaviruses. The company also said that it is working with Chinese, U.S. and World Health Organization officials to rapidly determine whether the drug can be used to treat the virus.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-12/chinese-company-says-it-can-make-gilead-s-coronavirus-drug WHO officials anointed Gilead Sciences' remdesivir as the most promising potential treatment for the disease. https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/03/08/3-stocks-that-are-actually- up-because-of-coronavir.aspx
Chemistry can be a b!4ch, lol.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/peggy/16-common-product-combinations-you-should-never-mix
Bleach + Vinegar = Toxic Chlorine Gas
A windy spitty day is keeping me inside and out of the garden, these numbers are to huge for my little mind, to huge for my old version of excel as well, but here goes.
330 million folks in the US, 80% for herd immunity = 264 million sick and recovered, assuming no fatalities.
My out of pocket for a three week stay with the nice folks in the hospital, $17,400, in ICU $23,700. My guess is this is low, but appears to be a national average.
So 39 million hospitalized, 13 million in the ICU looks to be about 1 trillion Americans co-pays, 2.3 trillion in insurance claims to reach herd immunity.
Is my math right?
Anybody have a guess as to the reserves in the Health Insurance industry?
Chris,
Can you provide a link to the satellite images of Chinese factory emissions? You showed them a few weeks ago and I’m wondering what they look like now.
With China in complete control of the virus, they should be showing much more visible emissions, right? ?
I
My daughter is in health care mgt. in CA… here is what she just heard;
NYC hospitals and EMS have hit their flex capacity. There are lines outside of emergency rooms and there aren't enough ambulances to keep up with call demandRealize that most people/families in NYC don't maintain a car, hence you don't just jump in the car and drive or get driven to the hospital like 99% of us would anywhere else. This is bad, period.
This extremely interesting one just appeared. It was recorded over 10 years ago. There’s no youtube link, so I don’t know if it will come through. He doesn’t mention overpopulation as a primary cause and the possibility of bioweapons is absolutely taboo.
https://nutritionfacts.org/video/pandemics-history-prevention/?utm_source=NutritionFacts.org&utm_campaign=71b00b9d14-RSS_VIDEO_DAILY&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_40f9e497d1-71b00b9d14-23770733&mc_cid=71b00b9d14