Give people a fighting chance to prepare. And that is only possible when they are informed. Did you look at the publications in the Lancet which i provided the links for in the post Facts… above ? This virus is doing havoc in the older population.
There is no doubt that we could have huge number of cases of this low fatality virus. People forget that we have huge numbers of people that are chronically sick are would be dead dead in other countries. These are the people that will end up in the ICU’s cause I see it all the time, this is my job and I take care of the sickest patients in our state. They are lifeflighted from all over. it beyond rare that a normal healthy person ends up in the ICU from the flu. I’ve done this too long, I have no concerns with here in the states.
In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if this virus (outside China) has a fatality rate less than 2%. But it will be weeks before we know for sure.
In Chris’s video update yesterday he projected the number infected would rise to almost 6,700. This site posted the new number at almost 7,800 at 9pm EST last night! This site is from Johns Hopkins CSSV. Key information provided:
Upper Left: Total infected as of Jan 29 reached 7,783, and the breakdown by country. The count outside China is now over 100.
Lower Left: In Yellow, the graph of the spread shows 10 data points. If the virus lasts for 7 days, only the first 3 data points have outcomes yet we are hearing only a 3% death rate.
Upper Right: The outcomes to date. With only 10 data points listed, the death toll exceeds the number of recoveries.
Right Margin: A scrolling bar providing the breakdown of number of infections and deaths by Chinese Province and country from most to least, showing the number of infections and deaths. Lower Right: Date and time stamp of the current version. 1/29 at 9:00pm EST. Center: Visualization map showing the epicenter is clearly in Hubei province, and Wuhan, it's capital city near the Three Gorges Lake and Yangtse River.https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
So, let’s assume a 10% infected rate worldwide and a 1.5% death rate.
That will be over 11 million dead. Just your average flu year :).
Nobody really knows where this will go, only time will tell. Let’s hope the optimists are correct. In the mean time, prudent people should prepare for a bad scene, just in case.
Data doesn’t give us the details, skill level underlying health problems etc. The reason I don’t trust the numbers is cause I don’t trust numbers given on the flu fatalities over the years, they don’t add up in my practice.
Bordepatrol,
Not sure if my post above translated to you.
I have very little concern about Coronavirus in regards to my own health.
I do have significant concerns about the health of family members, friends, colleagues, etc. who do not have the best health now. If there’s essentially no treatment, then that leaves prevention. If someone gets to the point they need to be on a ventilator from this virus, I don’t like that person’s chances.
Running ventilators & giving pressors is far removed from public health policy. I get it, most intensivists. are conditioned to be somewhat numb to bad diseases thinking that nothing new is going to be much different than the past. It’s a form of normalcy bias.
What I’m seeing with Chris M. is exercising much caution until more is known because IF this virus is a very bad one people can be prudent in their actions. Once the horse is out of the barn, it’s out of the barn.
Meantime – I remain opposed to anything that heightens fear in people – because ultimately I believe it does more harm than good.I'm going to challenge you here because you have it pretty much dead wrong. Here are two cases, fear and no fear. No fear: People don't even know what the risk is, and so they don't change any behaviors. They walk around, they cough and sneeze without even covering up, they shake hands and then touch their faces before washing their hands. They congregate, and they don't use any proper hygiene. Tens of millions get infected, hundreds of thousands develop severe complications, and tens of thousands die many of them unnecessarily because the hospital system gets overloaded. Fear: People 'get it' and because they cannot see virus particles they come to fear what they can't see. So they develop an overabundance of caution. They socially shame people who cough and sneeze without wearing face masks. They don't shake and and touch escalator railings, doorknobs, etc., without immediately using hand santizer that they now carry with them everywhere. They forgo large gatherings, and places where congregation would unnecessarily expose them to higher odds of being near an infected person, symptomatic or otherwise. Because of a vastly slower progression through the population, the contagion does not swamp the hospital system and many more people live. I think your view is wrong when it comes to this subject, and possibly a little bit patronizing. I trust my fellow citizens to do they best they can if given the full and complete information, it seems you do not? And by the way, if the facts make someone fearful and panicky, the problem isn't with the facts.
Andy, you bring up some interesting and important points that are worth discussing. Thank you.
I have some thoughts I want to throw into the fray. First, I think it’s important to agree on exactly what we mean by fear and panic. Do we mean intense fear that could motivate us to make irrational decisions? While even that has it’s place (think some situations that call for escaping immediate danger to life and limb), I think we can all agree, it doesn’t help in a more slowly unfolding situation or some quickly unfolding ones (such as a fire in a crowded building).
Or do we mean an appropriate level of fear, enough to motivate us, but not to cause panic? And, yes, some people may be able to react appropriately without fear, at least fear that is visible to others, and maybe even without fear that is visible to themselves.
I think we can also agree that complacency that stems from lack of information or overly sanitized information can and does prevent people from taking prudent action to avoid danger and avert or at least reduce the severity of unfolding crises. Chris addressed that in his first of the two posts just a bit earlier in this thread.
So where is the sweet spot between these two extremes? How do we calibrate the message to motivate as many people as possible to take urgent, but rational preventative and preparatory action that may be motivated by some degree of fear, but minimize the chance that people will panic?
Would that be something like what the mainstream media is doing? The Chinese Government? Chris? Some combination of them or calibrated version of one of them? Something completely different?
I’m hoping we can have an honest discussion about that.
It takes courage to confront trouble, but first trouble has to be recognized. Kudos to PP for having the vision to see Coronavirus through an objective lens.
The information we get from the powers that be is at best spun to their needs. Disinformation breeds fear. Truth is a precondition to preparation.
My preps are as follows:
Frequent hand washing…Avoidance of Crowds… Having N95 masks and disinfectant with me… No discretionary air travel…No unnecessary restaurant exposure…Stocking up on a few food stores…having ample clean water…Just common sense laying low. And other than that… Living as Normal.
Fear kills and “I have no concerns here in the states.”Great, continue to live your life as usual, keep our economy going by shopping, shopping, shopping, frequenting your normal public places and whistle a happy tune. A couple of years ago my Mother-In-Law went to the emergency room and she received an IV on a gurney in the hallway. Yep, no beds, or rooms were available. And that was during the “good” times. A nurse friend tells me when a hospital/Emergency Department is full the ambulances are directed to re-route patients to alternate hospitals. It happens regularly and we are not currently experiencing any kind of crisis. And the suggestion of - lets not say anything to make people afraid is just silly! Ignorance kills ever so many more people than fear. The way to overcome ignorance is education. The way to overcome fear is action! Andy, I suggest you DON’T discuss this subject with anyone as it could conjure up fearful feelings and you would be contributing to harm their calm. Just think, shouting from the roof tops about the realities of this situation might get people to take notice, make some preparations, change their habits or routine and wash their hands. And, a few lives will no doubt be saved. Dam, saving lives, thats good!
My take is that they are keep the information down as to not affect the markets.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/british-airways-ends-all-flights-china-virus-spreads-middle-east
What is the reality of this situation? Very likely that the ones most in danger of death from this thing are the old, the infirm, the sickly, etc. Is that sad and tragic? Yes it is. My parents are 80 years old. I don’t want anyone to die. Believe me.
But what will “over-fearfulness” cause if this thing hits a major economy like Japan or the USA? Well - everyone will panic. Economy shuts down. No-one goes out. Hospitals overloaded with people who are not deathly sick but are demanding attention. -Thousands of them. It actually can wreck the entire country for months on end. Is that fatal? - You bet. A dying economy is even more fatal than this virus appears to be.
That’s how fear kills. And I can see it happening here very easily.
Spread knowledge - yes. Spread fear - no.
-Andy
Perhaps we have to change our vocabulary usage here. I don’t yet fully fear the corona virus in my locale, because nothing has indicated it is here, directly affecting and infecting people. Yet, based on the facts (rapid spread, potential mortality and severe illness rates) and anecdotal evidence (China shutting down entire cities, information blackouts, and countries closing their borders, etc), I am convinced I should give a healthy respect, born of mild fear, to the potential deadly nature of this virus. What that means is I should be tracking its spread, taking precautions ahead of time, and passing along a certain amount of my fears about its potential to others, in the hopes that they will translate that fear into respect and change their own behaviors to further inhibit the spread.
Do the police carry guns because they fear being jacked up or attacked every moment of every day? No. But the officers I know speak of an underlying low level of fear that it could happen on any given day, which means they respect the danger enough to go about armed and always aware.
What you are talking about, Andy, is the irrational kind of fear more than the healthy kind, and your continual reference to fear as if it is an on-off switch rather than a spectrum is an incorrect way to look at it, in my opinion. There’s not enough evidence for extreme fear, but there is enough evidence for mild fear that leads to respecting the power this thing might have…especially if that leads us to change our behaviors to include better hygiene, etc.
-S
This is a fascinating read about the ineptness of the response of the chinese governement. Classic science vs politics.
http://chinamediaproject.org/2020/01/27/dramatic-actions/
“Spread knowledge – yes. Spread fear – no”
Ahhh, so the real issue is - control! Who controls the narrative? Who gets to decide what we should know, think, do, how to behave, when to act, when to be concerned, and who should know.
Really, keeping people in the dark and dribbling out tiny bits and pieces of information causes fear. Real information gives people an opportunity to act. Those who try to control, because they think they know better are controlling the populace with fear. Treat people with respect, as adults, give them the truth. Control the narrative to protect the health of the economy over the health of the people will lead to the same conclusion. Only people will suffer more.
Chris and others,
What would you rate the probability that western cities will need to be locked down as is happening in China? What would you estimate the timeline to be? What needs to happen for this outcome to be avoided?
Thanks, E