Don't Believe The Hype!

Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tend to be the difficult ones.

Well, some states are deferring collection on student loans.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/adamminsky/2020/04/20/these-states-are-stopping-student-loan-debt-collection/#347746c07e33
I have received email from the few credit cards I have, saying to contact them if I have a hard time paying due to covid19.
My auto insurance company is issuing credits this month and next because of covid19.
The IRS is allowing debt on back taxes to be put off until July 15th.
There are still government resources for unemployment and food assistance. I’ve not liked having to go on unemployment before, but that’s a still a choice for many.
And there is also the up to $1200 from the government that many are eligible for.
Many companies are stepping up to help those in need.

Rumsfeld quote made sense.
I have a daughter that works in the service sector. Right before the shut down a customer/client gave her a $100 tip, said “your going to need this”. Many people have stepped up and helped those who are struggling. It is heartwarming to see those who are supportive.

Rumsfeld also famously said, “The weapons of mass destruction are located somewhere to the north, west, east, and south of Tikrit.” You can’t make this stuff up.

davefairtex wrote: Now we just need to get: a) the authorities to get on board with HCQ + Azithromycin + Zinc b) people to realize that our current lockdown strategy must have a time limit, or the economic damage will lead to a vast great wealth transfer that most of us will end up on the losing end of.
I've lost faith in government. I still think the concept of government is needed; however, to what extent? Then, there's the corruption of those who hold positions of power. Why wouldn't these people want a quick, cheap, easy solution to a problem? As you alluded, some groups stand to lose a lot of power, prestige, and/or money if the bad orange man gets his way. They couch every issue as a win/lose scenario. It shouldn't be that way. Your first post on this subject got me thinking about this issue. Maybe these subsequent posts will get some creative juices flowing. I wrote my post in hopes that one of the medical people here would see the idea as something worth pursuing. Hopefully, they can see the potential benefits and figure out a way to get around our big government overlords so they can get funding/approval. On a personal note, I'm sort of doing this on my own. I don't actively pursue getting infected. I just have my afternoon Covid cocktail of gin and tonic with roasted pumpkin seeds (zinc source.) The tonic water contains quinine (the naturally occurring active compound in HCQ) but at a non-therapeutic dose. My thoughts are that a) it won't hurt and b) it may be enough to keep a really low level infection at bay so my immune system can gear up and fight the virus. I also have a nebulizer and use it to vaporize my homemade 10 PPM colloidal/ionic silver solution. I breathe deeply about 1/2 teaspoon of vaporized solution when I get home after venturing out in the world. We know that ionic silver generally kills bacteria, viruses, and fungi in vitro (ie Petri dishes;) however, we don't know if it kills this specific virus or how it performs in vivo (in the body.) I don't expect big Pharma to ever investigate if this would take care of the problem. Why? There's no money in it for them. They're much more interested in their financial health than our physical health. I wish it weren't this way ... but it is. Grover

This statement from DFT above is the best statement he or anyone has said on this site ever. Its accuracy is indisputable. It is stunningly timeless. It is elegant in its simplicity.
" Predictions are difficult, especially about the future. "
My predictions about the past on the other hand are perfectly 100% correct

The wonderful Dr. Ban Truong, DO, PhD,from CA, today profiles the pastor of a church local to me in WA who had lost his 90 year old father to Covid-19 and was now (roughly 30 days ago) himself infected and facing an outbreak in his congregation. He must have found Dr. Truong the same way I did several weeks ago - by searching through Youtube videos addressing the topic of hydroxychloroquine.
Here are the important take away’s from this conversation;

  1. Early intervention with the HCQ regimen (+ Zithro + Zinc) works
  2. In this case Dr. Ban treated sick people AND later caregivers of sick people who themselves came down with symptoms… and from the discussion it appears that this aggressive treatment along with smart quarantines shut down the spread. The meds help in this regard because as per Dr. Didier Raoult and others the period of viral shedding is significantly reduced by the meds.
    This is a microcosm of how we might manage this in the future when little clusters break out… We just need to break through all of the Deep State fog that is effecting even doctors at this point. That a desperate group in WA had to find a doctor in CA who was willing to help save them is a disgrace… and always Dr. Ban has to call multiple pharmacies to get his prescriptions filled.
    Note that Dr. Ban has many other videos profiling cases where he has helped turn around folks illness using these medications… he is building up his own little case study.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zVOPDrdHBAk

Dear Jan, I had the honor to twice meet Dr. Linus Pauling, the only person to win the Nobel twice. He spoke science and he spoke the science of peace but not usually at the same time. The obvious human tragedy does not need to be added to every discussion. imho

I was speaking about NY state closing in on a 1:1000 death rate. That is not a case fatality rate ( CFR ) but the over-all death rate or mortality rate of the entire population.
We have some people still suggesting that this is maybe only as deadly as the flu ( .138%) or just over 1/10th of 1%. Which is makes no sense if you can do some simple math. The authorities stating low death rates say that large amounts of the population is already infected or has been previously. However, looking at NY alone, we find that its population mortality rate for this illness is already (in 3 weeks ) equal to the case fatality rate of flu. That means to have the flu kill the people already dead, the entire population ( 100%) of NY would have to already been infected. flu deaths = ( 1:1000) of infected. Covid deaths = (1:1000 ) total NY population.
If we assume that 15% of the population gets the flu in a given year, and the same many people get covid in 1 month, Covid would have a death rate 6 times of flu. We are assuming that 15% of NY has had Covid already to attain this CFR. However if only 4% has been infected already we would have a death rate 23 times the flu. and if only 2% are infected , the CFR would be close to 50 times that of the flu. NY has a 250,000 confirmed cases. This is 1/8o th of their population. or just a bit more than 1% of the population. Using the confirmed cases we end up with a CFR of 100 times the flu. So, Covid CFR is somewhere between 6-100 times the flu. My guess it is neither. We cannot infer anything about uncounted cases, also we cannot infer anything about uncounted deaths. I think a conservative estimate would be this has a 20-50 times greater CFR than the flu… AND less conservative would be 50-80 times. There are a lot unknowns, But it is very unlikely this will have a CFR above 10% and just as unlikely that we will see a CFR of less than 2%. But what is certain, is this is not 1-2 times as deadly as the flu. And its not even close to the estimate authorities are throwing around of .006.

Globally, the flu kills between 291,00 and 646,000 per year or on average 5,600 to 12,500 per week. Last week COVID-19 killed 50,000 and it is just getting started in many parts of the world.
APRIL 23, 2020 / 5:26 PM BERLIN (Reuters) - Germany is still at the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic and will have to live with it for a long time, Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Thursday.
“We are not living in the final phase of the pandemic, but still at the beginning,” she told the Bundestag lower house of parliament.
“We have won time,” Merkel said, adding that this had been used well to bolster Germany’s healthcare system.

New York City has about 43.5% of the state’s population, and about 75% of the deaths. To estimate the city’s death rate, let’s try 75/43.5 * 1037 deaths per thousand = 1788 deaths per thousand or 0.18%. So the death rate is at least that. New cases are trending down a bit the past week or two. Several factors in combination account for this:

  1. social distancing - the practices of 1-3 weeks ago impact today's new cases.
  2. approaching herd immunity. As herd immunity is approached new cases decrease since many contacts of existing cases are already infected or immune. This has some impact once the disease has infected perhaps 25-30% of the population and a significant impact at about 50%.
  3. reduced testing - testing rates have declined, but not as much as new cases.
Social distancing really ramped up a few weeks ago, so I would guess that most of the impact is from #1 with a bit from #3. That leaves not much from #2. My best guess: we're at under 25% infected and were probably under 20% 10 days ago (to account for lag in deaths), so CFR for NYC is at least 0.9%.