Is it possible that the data has been adjusted to compensate for the false positives?
Otherwise, it would seem that NY who keeps getting 700-900 new cases per day could really have almost only 300 new true cases /day
The ugly and disturbing incidents all took place in Melbourne. The rest of the country is relatively undisturbed. There is unhappiness and questioning here about over-policing and over-reacting, about health measures being enforced by blundering non-health professionals. The Premier of Victoria is earning the nickname of “Dictator Dan.” Recently he sought to extend the crisis measures by one YEAR but was howled down.
Australians by and large are placid and patient, maybe too much so. We will put up with quite a lot of inconvenience and even oppression provided we’re convinced that it’s in the public interest.
In the national capital we have been only lightly affected by The Plague, and here and other parts of the country restrictions are being reduced even now.
The good thing about the Melbourne over-reaction is that at least this segment of the population now knows what it feels like for the poor wretches we have kept in a concentration camp on Nauru and Manus for the heinous crime of attempting to come by boats rather than aeroplanes to seek safety and a refuge in Australia. And the Melbournites are learning what it’s like for the Aborigines to endure chronic over-policing as part of government policy. I fear these lessons will be lost. The political classes certainly won’t learn them.
@ptm69
Chris used the term “intellectual integrity” very early on in his commentaries on COVID, when much learning about the virus was still occurring. His definition of that term was something like -: being open to having one’s opinions or beliefs changed by new or updated knowledge. He also referred to his theories and hypotheses about the virus - by definition, these were presented as possibilities, not facts.
If you believe that Chris’ position on the virus changed because he got it wrong then perhaps you didn’t understand the associated caveats.
The near perfect exponential fit of age and mortality suggests a fundamental role of the innate immune system in covid19 infection. Within this system, there are so-called natural antibodies that are produced without the need for exposure to antigen and that fall off with aging. Once thought to be inactive, they are now known to be active in the presence of certain lectins. However, this activation seems not to enhance and rejuvenate their production, unlike the antibodies of the adaptive system. Since viruses use cell receptors for entry (covid19 uses the ACE2 receptor), natural antibodies could be selected by evolution to bind any protein that would also bind vulnerable receptors. Perhaps humans produce a natural antibody to ACE2 binding proteins that protects from any virus using that receptor. This protects youth from the virus but the protection drops off with age.
This ACE2-like antibody might interfere with the normal function of the receptor within the tissue and so may only be activated in the lumen, the space outside the surface of mucus membranes. Here secreted dimeric immunoglobulin A would agglutinate target viruses and prevent their penetration of the mucus layer. If immunity then does not depend exclusively on blood antibodies then the percentage necessary for herd immunity could well be much lower than current thinking.
Ronald - I have often wanted to post a question and your post finally prompted me to create an account and ask, ever since I started following PP in January.
I have a few autoimmune diseases, many allergies as well as being born without any IGA immunoglobulin, not knowing the latter for 2/3rds of my life, but now brings past problems into clearer view. Luckily, I never needed a blood transfusion, since I would survive the first one, but not a second one without the process of having the blood “washed” first to alleviate the anaphylactic consequences.
I have researched much and often prior to and after the introduction of the internet and feel I am knowledgeable on my particular problems, and have shared those answers with others that need help. Each person has to be their own advocate, because a Dr. that sees you for 15 minutes will never know all the idiosyncrasies of each unique individual. I have adapted my eating and environmental toxin load through the years as more info has becomes available. Due to this, I am in my 60’s, I am doing well, am in good physical health and only require one prescription (thyroid meds), since I did not have the knowledge of how to reverse that autoimmune response before the damage was done back in my early 30’s. (Thankfully, I have been able to share and help younger family members to reverse their course in the past few years.)
I have always gotten sick easily, but pushed my way through with the acquired knowledge of what helps. When covid hit, my regime already included every vitamin and supplement discussed here on PP, except to add in quercetin and more green tea to help the zinc get into the cells prophylactically. I am fairly careful in my interactions, but have not shut myself in my house in fear - that is no life, even with my precarious situation. I do however still have questions my research has not completely answered. With the lack of IGA, am I less likely to produce the damaging cytokine storm, since the IGA immunoglobulin mainly deals with mucus related processes, or will my other immunoglobulins take over and create the storm since I am autoimmune prone as well? Does this help or hurt my autoimmune response in this particular matter? I know the lack of IGA is why it takes me longer to get over an infection, and is probably my biggest stumbling block in this covid thing. But you also talk about the space outside the mucus membranes. Unfortunately I have a lot of that space in my sinuses as some of my turbinates were trimmed 20 years ago and the mucus membranes scraped, which was one medical aspect that has helped me in the allergy/polyp journey. However, that also allows more particles to be breathed in - lol… it is always something! So the next question is, does less mucus membranes create a better or worse environment for virus entry in the ACE2 receptors and subsequent penetration of the mucus layer?
I am so thankful to have found PP and be able to glean information from so many knowledgeable individuals that take time out of their daily life to help others. Sometimes you don’t realize how your contributions are exactly what someone reading needs. Thank you so much!
The whole point of science is adjusting your theories as more data becomes available. If you expect a scientist to maintain an original hypothesis even in the face of evidence to the contrary, you don’t understand scientists. Theories evolve. The scientific method works.
I just wish he’d bridge the gap between Chris Mar-2020 and Chris Sept-2020. If he now believes we overreacted, then he was a prime driver in said overreaction…day after day after day. Come out and state it as such: “I realize now that we all overreacted to Covid-19.” If I missed that type of proclamation somewhere then I apologize. But I see his new stance as if he’s erased the memories of his early 2020 writing and replaced them with what seem like targeted unsubstantiated claims.
That said, I personally know 2 “long haulers” who are still struggling to various degrees 6 months after their Covid-19 experience. We still don’t understand the long-term health consequences of infection, so diminishing it’s risks this early in the game is reckless, plain and simple. Six months into this pandemic does not make anyone an expert unless hubris is factored into the equation.
Chris is missing the point that if the overall test false positive rate is 1% then one could have 1% of the population using the app needlessly self-isolating. The 30% is relative to actual positives which is a smaller absolute number compared to the total population. So from a policy perspective it is really whether having 1% of the total population self-isolating needlessly is unacceptable compared to the benefit of cutting transmission chains to lower the R value significantly below 1.
He then proposes common sense approaches but completely misses the fact that many people aren't wearing masks. So what is his proposal then? Just let those people and those they come into contact with get sick? He needs to get political but is afraid to. He needs to call out Trump, but never does. He complains about the UK health minister, but what about our own government, particularly Trump and the new guy, Scott Atlas, that Trump put as head of the coronavirus task force?
He also ignores data showing that we really don't yet have a solution for certain indoor maskless activities such as indoor dining at restaurants. Look at the CDC data and especially the Adjusted Odds Ratio Figure:
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6936a5.htm
Open up all businesses regardless of risk? Let everyone go to bars and restaurants indoors where they HAVE to remove their masks to eat or drink?
Chris says "if your hospitals aren't even close to being overwhelmed, why are you crushing your economies?". But he has no rational plan for re-opening that limits risk. A rational approach would say, for example, that opening elementary schools with some distancing and masks makes sense and in fact this has been shown to be working, but opening colleges does not unless 1) the small but significant illness and deaths of that population are acceptable and 2) those students are isolated away from older (including middle age) people in society. Such isolation simply isn't going to happen, which is why colleges are getting shut back down instead and why bars remain closed.
Why does Chris not present a basic fact of transmission: certain business establishments are simply very risky? He should instead be focused on areas of the economy that aren't as risky and get those re-opened. Travel with airlines can be managed if they keep middle seats open (unless with one's household) and keep the great air exchange they have. Hotels can be reopened as well, but not their bars unless very spread out with good ventilation. Understanding the different risk venues is critical but Chris just lumps it all into a 3-way tradeoff where the "Keep Economy Going" is one lump category with NO subtlety inside it.
It’s not clear to me that Chris is using all of the data to adjust his position with anecdotal evidence and article quotes being prime drivers for the change.
Globally, we see cases have steadied or started rising again, after a brief drop. Likewise, with a delay, we see deaths have stopped dropping and may be rising again (looking at the 7-day average). Also, Chris mentioned that surges should be measured on deaths, not cases, which he regards as false. However, as he’s pointed out numerous times, the effects of the disease may be severe and prolonged even if death is not the outcome. So deaths alone are not a pointer to surges, especially as treatments are improving.
As a footnote, I noticed that the Swedish numbers jumped recently, with over a thousand being added to the total. I really don’t know what to make of the erratic figures but it does seem that deaths are also on the rise (though more are likely in the weeks to come, if the current case rise is to be believed).
@sofistek Regarding second waves. The Spain example shows that deaths are on the rise. Yes, they don't appear to correspond to the rise in positives but they are on the rise, indicating an increasing number of cases. Hopefully, the death numbers will stabilise and then start to decrease soon.Not really. What's on the rise is the desperation of the criminal government. By pushing it too far too fast, data like empty hospitals and a plummeting CFR, and lack of primary care services, is making their casedemic narrative look ever more absurd, so they're trying their best to control the certification of cause of death from the top (via a recent executive order), along with trying to get the virus back into elderly nursing homes.
@nordicjack But it does happen to even healthy young people.Problem is we know nothing about their health status, starting with vitamin D status. It's very likely those cases are in people with vitamin D deficiency, but we just don't know. There are young people with no diagnosed health condition who die from the flu as well, likely for the same reason (they don't know how to actually be healthy, particularly regarding vitamin D, and they're told all manner of falsehoods like avoid sunlight to avoid skin cancer).
@LesPhelps Covid-19 attacks, among other things, the endothelial cells that line the blood vessels. These are the same cells that are damaged by consuming dietary cholesterol. Dietary cholesterol covers endothelial cells with plaque, causing cardiovascular disease.What you're describing is the cholesterol scam, eloquently and humorously exposed in this great video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y1RXvBveht0 EDIT: My bad, it's not the one above (though it's a great explanation of how fake science is conducted). It's his Fat Head documentary where he exposes Ancel Keys and the low-fat theory/fraud that (in part) led to the epidemic of obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=evcNPfZlrZs They attack cholesterol because it's the precursor to the steroid hormones (they're especially after reducing testosterone levels), and saturated (which is mostly animal) fats in general so that you'll consume toxic plant fats that when heated up become CVD-causing trans fats, as well as consume more CVD-causing carb-rich junk food. Generally, if they attack it, it's likely good for you.
@ezlxq1949 The good thing about the Melbourne over-reaction is that at least this segment of the population now knows what it feels like for the poor wretches we have kept in a concentration camp on Nauru and Manus for the heinous crime of attempting to come by boats rather than aeroplanes to seek safety and a refuge in Australia. And the Melbournites are learning what it's like for the Aborigines to endure chronic over-policing as part of government policy. I fear these lessons will be lost. The political classes certainly won't learn them.Good points -- there are some positives to come out of that too. Daniel Andrews and Victoria seem to be bought by China, which would help explain the tyrannical actions... yet the central Australian government are doing nothing to stop it, correct?
@ontheprairie I have a few autoimmune diseases, many allergies as well as being born without any IGA immunoglobulin, not knowing the latter for 2/3rds of my life, but now brings past problems into clearer view. Luckily, I never needed a blood transfusion, since I would survive the first one, but not a second one without the process of having the blood "washed" first to alleviate the anaphylactic consequences.Would you say that as far as you know, you were born with those autoimmune conditions/diseases? That can happen, but often autoimmune diseases and inflammatory chaos (cytokine storms) are induced by a toxic environment in the body, such as by heavy metals and other toxins in vaccines, especially if given when very young (the blood-brain barrier isn't fully developed until about age 6). Other major sources of heavy metals can be amalgam fillings (they leach mercury constantly into your bloodstream), seafood (mainly large fish that eat other fish; it helps to take selenium to bind the mercury if you ever eat these), heavy chemtrails spraying, aluminum in deodorant and even in baking powder (in the US), cadmium in cigaratte smoke, lead in old paint or piping or gasoline, arsenic in contaminated water, rice, pesticides, CAFO chickens & eggs... To detox heavy metals you can use purified zeolites. Another possible cause of autoimmune disease can be undetected pathogens, for which a sometimes effective solution is chlorine dioxide -- it's worth trying using one of these protocols (which is the softest of the oxygenation/ROS therapies, the mechanism of action most targeted by Big Pharma, hated even more than vitamin D, yet commonly used to clean blood donations/transfusions of any pathogens and to potabilize water).
So the next question is, does less mucus membranes create a better or worse environment for virus entry in the ACE2 receptors and subsequent penetration of the mucus layer?That's an interesting question... I would think worse in terms of entry, but also worse in terms of clearance/removal via mucuous secretions. It would also depend on how much less mucuous you produce. My guess is more on the "more difficult for the virus to reach ACE2 receptors" side. There are some drugs you can use, and also foods that can increase or decrease mucuous production.
@ptm69 I just wish he'd bridge the gap between Chris Mar-2020 and Chris Sept-2020. If he now believes we overreacted, then he was a prime driver in said overreaction...day after day after day. Come out and state it as such: "I realize now that we all overreacted to Covid-19." If I missed that type of proclamation somewhere then I apologize. But I see his new stance as if he's erased the memories of his early 2020 writing and replaced them with what seem like targeted unsubstantiated claims.It's easy to fall into certain narratives when they're the main story everywhere, in this case especially if you weren't well-versed in what it means to have a strong immune system. I've been saying since around April that it's not a huge deal if you have high vitamin D levels (and also aren't deficient in other nutrients like zinc, vitamin A, selenium, or starved of usable proteins and saturated fats as in long-term veganism), but that's primarily because I already knew about how essential this vitamin is and how it's the primary difference between people who experience the flu and those (like myself) who don't.
That said, I personally know 2 "long haulers" who are still struggling to various degrees 6 months after their Covid-19 experience. We still don't understand the long-term health consequences of infection, so diminishing it's risks this early in the game is reckless, plain and simple. Six months into this pandemic does not make anyone an expert unless hubris is factored into the equation.But do you know their vitamin D status? Are they taking only 1000 IU/day following their clownworld doctors' bad advice? Are they taking the other effective treatments, like zinc+ionophore, ivermectin, chlorine dioxide (or nebulized hydrogen peroxide), vitamin C...? The answer is most likely no, but until we know that, should we assume it's because of the virus, or because of not using the effective treatments?
@Snowball Financial He then proposes common sense approaches but completely misses the fact that many people aren't wearing masks. So what is his proposal then? Just let those people and those they come into contact with get sick?Almost nobody is getting sick anymore. The virus has mutated towards host adaption -- natural selection at play as no virus wants to kill the host and thereby itself. The most vulnerable already went out. Only the most clueless aren't taking vitamin D or sunlight. If we use the effective treatments, masks become 2nd grade protection. They say wear masks and hide in your basements away from the Sun and wait for a vaccine... while they suppress the effective treatments. To them, the masks are a muzzle to silence you.
He needs to get political but is afraid to. He needs to call out Trump, but never does. He complains about the UK health minister, but what about our own government, particularly Trump and the new guy, Scott Atlas, that Trump put as head of the coronavirus task force?You need to call out the MSM, who are lying to all of us in the most blatant of ways. Pretty much everything they say about Trump, about conservatives(/small goverment advocates), about white people, about men, are disgusting, racist, sexist lies, bordering on terrorism. Will you denounce them???
He also ignores data showing that we really don't yet have a solution for certain indoor maskless activities such as indoor dining at restaurants.The solution is the effective treatments that are being suppressed by the same people who tell us extremely harmful lies about Trump and about everything else. Why are you ignoring this data?
A rational approach would say, for example, that opening elementary schools with some distancing and masks makes sense and in fact this has been shown to be workingNo, that's child abuse and absolutely crazy, the actions of a diseased society. Do you know anything about trauma and how they are generated? There is no justification whatsoever for a now rather harmless virus, comparable to influenza, even without the known effective treatments beyond vitamin D. In my country parents everywhere are organizing against the criminal government's imposition of masks and distancing for all school children above age 6... and you can't refuse, as they'll steal your children and/or imprison you.
@sofistek However, as he's pointed out numerous times, the effects of the disease may be severe and prolonged even if death is not the outcome.But again, it seems that this only happens if one does everything one can to avoid all the effective treatments, and once you have a significant/severe case, you take only say 1000 IU/day vitamin D and just hope it goes away... because you're operating on extremely bad (or rather non-existent) advice from "official" sources. So the cultural engineers/propagandists with their enslavement narrative would like to have us believing that the virus is what is dangerous, but it's clearly them who are dangerous to our health. At the highest level (Gates-funded organizations), they're using the virus as a weapon to kill us, clearly. Similar to how they want you believing it's guns that kill people, rather than people who kill people using guns (which are your ultimate defense against them). Ultimately you are fully responsible: You're the one killing/harming yourself by choosing to live with the virus instead of eliminating it by using the known effective treatments (that you don't know about due to foolishly not noticing criminals lying to you in your face repeatedly).
As a footnote, I noticed that the Swedish numbers jumped recently, with over a thousand being added to the total. I really don't know what to make of the erratic figures but it does seem that deaths are also on the rise (though more are likely in the weeks to come, if the current case rise is to be believed).Summer is over, so the colder seasons will bring with them the usual respiratory infections as people clueless about their health go back into a vitamin D deficiency state. The more criminally-controlled countries will label the flu season a 2nd covid wave. They need increased deaths to accompany the casedemic, and some need it fast.