EIA Cuts Its Oil Forecast Through 2027, Mental Health Crisis Aboard the USS Lincoln, AI Answers 911 Calls

Here’s the deal with that. I used to do search and rescue and combat search and rescue for a living. It’s really hard sans flares, smoke, & communications with the person for whom you’re looking. At night without those things, it is impossible without dumb luck. I did three under fire and was lucky on two out of three but all three were land based rescues.

The sailor would have to jump during the day, be seen by some others, have on a life jacket, mark himself with smoke or flare, the ship has to maneuver, to not be sucked under the ship and into the whirling screws of death to be cuisinarted.

On a carrier, a jump over the side, preferably off the fantail to maybe miss the ship’s suction & screws without any ship maneuvering, means pretty certain death, either by being sucked into the screws or becoming fish food.

If actual suicide was the goal, every sailor knows hopping off at night is a guaranteed death. If you’re up north in arctic waters, the cold gets it done in literal seconds.

If the objective is a psych discharge, then the sailor will do it with a life vest, flares, smoke, and most likely off the fantail at noon in calm seas. I suspect the attempts were serious sounding, maybe believable threats in hopes for a psych discharge (which has its very serious and non-beneficial consequences including a possible Courts-Martial). It’s the word “attempted” and “tried” that makes me think that’s what happened.

4 Likes

Can one case be that Hegseth didnt have balls to inform Trump that they are out of ammo, if not already, very soon. So any drone or missile coming, they are meat. Similar as sitting in trench waiting for artillery barrage to break cover. That can mess you up. Not as bad as submarine doing 20month mission in hostile waters but pretty close. Peacetime, leadership is the problem. It looks someone really knows they are bait to be sacrificed… ship command surely knows this from mission briefing. If israelis call the shots, even more so(not their men, not their problem). It’s not the mission, but constant uncertainty… prisons generally dont have this problem while on ship is similar experience.

2 Likes

Not being onboard those ships, all I can do is refer back to personal experience. We’ve just heard reports from someone. I suspect many are true or close to being true because of what I experienced and assume the similar case if conditions onboard the ships were worse.

But here’s some data:

Bab al Mandab is closed. Hormuz is closed. That means no resupply from the Med or Bahrain for fresh foods. Supplies like food, oils, bullets, JP5 jet fuel, diesel for yellow gear, cleaning supplies, toilet paper, mail, literally every expendable thing a ship needs whether it has 200 people or 5000 people must travel many thousands of miles to the Arabian Gulf to get to the “Wall of Steel” blockade. That doesn’t take days or weeks but months. Critical things can be flown to Diego Garcia, picked up by a C2 and flown to tge carrier & redistributed to the other ships via underway replenishment (UNREP) or helo.

The morale issue is a thing but it’s not as bad as our nearly non-existent logistics issue. We’re a maritime power, NOT a land power. Iran, Russia, China are land powers. They have interior supply lines. Ours have always been exterior when engaged in wars across oceans. Since our closest resupply lines have been cut off since February, and since we can’t make stand off weapons fast enough, and can’t resupply them without serious problems, that’s why we’ll lose this. Destroyers & frigates have to be rearmed in port NOT via UNREP. That’s a week to Diego Garcia, a week to load missiles, and a week to get back on station per ship. That’s a much bigger headache and reality than 6 guys “trying to” jump off the Lincoln.

Add the ridiculous Foxnews “expert” notion that we need to “finish the fight” with boots on the ground. They simply CANNOT be resupplied, period, end of conversation if we were stupid enough to successfully put a thousand Rangers or Marines in Chabahar (Khargg would be nothing but suicidal. I just can’t consider that as even a possibility for anyone but morons like Kellogg, Keane, Mark Levin, or Ben Shapiro). They would have worse resupply/logistics issues than the ships who would necessarily have to resupply the boots on the ground.

We lost because we have zero interior logistic lines. That’s all Iran has is interior lines from China via the “Stans” and Russia via Caspian Sea. We couldn’t close a twenty mile swath of border between Afghanistan and Iran for twenty years. Same with Pakistan. Those borders are as porous as our southern border (probably still is).

The brouhaha over the ships’ morale might be a Penn & Teller misdirection, I don’t know but we ain’t got no logistics. That I do know because there’s reality data and evidence that supports it. Albeit 250+ days plus five more weeks waiting for the replacement carrier then four more weeks to sail to Hawaii or Japan then San Diego on a floating prison sucks more than any other suck the Navy experienced, the suicide attempts might be a shiny object to ignore the reality of not having any realistic supply lines. EVERYONE in that theater above the rank of O4 knows how dire that problem makes the whole shit show. Bitching about it is the least of their worries.

10 Likes

I think you are largely right. In the sandbox we used to periodically see soldiers ‘attempt suicide’ by overdosing on pills - apparently oblivious to the fact that everyone in the base was issued a long gun.

2 Likes

As WW2 4 Star Omar Bradley famously noted: Amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics’

The US used to be very good at conventional wars because of what I call the ‘Fedex effect’ … their ability to get (explosive) packages delivered anywhere, anytime, overnight.

This doesnt apply to guerrilla/ war for a number of reasons but notable are:

  1. Guerrillas are cheap, munitions, particularly exotic ‘airmail deliveries’ are expensive
  2. Guerrillas have much less need for supply lines than conventional militaries
  3. Guerrillas cant be defeated by the usual conventional war metrics - you cant take their capitals, you cant sink their ships, you cant shoot down their airforces…

The current Iran campaign, whilst not a ‘guerrilla war’, is an ‘asymmetric’ war and many of the same features apply: it is costing the US much more to prosecute the war than it is costing the Iranians, you cant take their Capital, and no amount of bombing will force the strait open…

1 Like

Blaming low morale for pulling back the Navy; blaming Qatar for treacherously giving Iran the gold it held in Qatari banks - an awesome end to this phase of the mess we are all in!

Defeat - finally!

I cannot wait to hear more wacky turns - after the Yom Kippur War wound down, Golda Meir had to quit. Maybe Netanyahu will be sacrificed soon.

You lost me. Who’s pulling back the Navy because of low morale?

I think the misdirection is creating a flashing headline about cratering morale that will excuse a much larger retreat than the Lincoln and the rest of the ships in its group heading to a port.

We still have that satellite blackout going for images of the region? Questionable reports about casualty numbers that some have suggested are being laundered with crashes and accidents on bases back home? I think the wall of censorship being breached for this story is intended to allow for a real retreat and rearm phase - because otherwise, the wall of censorship is holding strong.

1 Like

I think our navy is reaching its limits for supplies and logistics and they’re just spinning it however possible. Sal on youtube (whatsgoingonwithshipping) was going over logistics for shorter-distanced campaigns in WWII and how we were running many, many more support ships than we are currently for longer supply lines. Those poor sailors.

3 Likes

Wonder does blackout apply to commercial sats. Some tubers have bought rather cheaply images of russian lands to check bases. These companies may face pressure to not give this data.

I wonder if the USS Abraham Lincoln has run out of SSRIs and suicidal/violent sailors are experiencing withdrawal?
Willow

It has since Bahrain & UAE bases were destroyed in addition to the SOH control by Iran & Bab al Mamdeb controlled by Yemen. Resupply has to come from many thousands of miles and months away. Diego Garcia can be used to stage material from Japan & Australia but it doesn’t really speed things up since those two routes take weeks to months for ships to get supplies then stage them for other ships supporting the carrier task group and Marine Amphib Ready Group. I’m sure C2 (Cods) are flying non-stop gear from Diego G to the carrier then redistributed by helo to smaller ships but that’s like a teaspoon of stuff compared to a barrel of stuff.

The “war is hell” ruse from the DC talking heads to justify almost one full year at sea with zero port calls is another howdy doody line of bullshit that hopes the FoxNews magatista boomer warriors will plaster on facebook to paper over the worse logistics failure in probably world history. Chickens WILL come home to roost on that one. When reports of retention bonuses for not so critical enlisted personnel are tens if not hundreds of thousands for short two year re-enlistments, that’ll be a clue.

So disgusting but at least the child rapists and child eaters are loving the sleight of hand. We’ll spend any amount and sacrifice any innocent American as long as an Epstein elite doesn’t cause a forced discovery.

4 Likes
4 Likes