I see it as both.
In my trading bucket, I try to follow mid to long term cycles like this one. Very easy to trade paper gold for DJIA. Same with gold/silver ratios and other ratios that have cyclical patterns.
But a separate bucket is for physical for SHTF or TEOTWAWKI and general inflation hedging.
Bonner PR uses 5 as level to get nack into equities
Labor participation rate for males has dropped to 67% from 75% in 2000.
https://x.com/hedgeye/status/2050252661501411453?s=61&t=Mwt6vB5qMDygkHDLxH9PhQ
That was so interesting I had to go download the series. Turns out they have a truckload of sub-series - different ages, races, sex. Hereās men and women together since the beginning of time:
And hereās the overall participation rate (CIVPART). It tried to recover after Covid, but now it is plunging once more.
My real world metrics (gold, silver, icecreams) say we have been averaging closer to 10% compound annually for the last 50 years (hello Nixon).
" when all else fails they take you to war (Celente)" ā¦ exhibit A Bibi, Trump, Macron, Starmer, Merzā¦
And they hide even more by relabelling as ādisabilityā etc
Not all of us were around in 1974 when gas prices surged to over a dollar. Most of us were here for the 2007-08 crisis when gas hit $4 for the first time. That seemed to be the straw that broke the economies back. Iām in the midwest in an oil producing state, gas is $4.80 for regular unleaded, diesel is over $5 at many stations. Iām seeing .20 cent price jumps, not the nickel or dime normal increases. I topped off my offroad diesel storage yesterday, $705 for 150 gallons. Thatās without the road taxes. I have to think people are really starting to feel this, and its only begun.
I am amazed that my neighbors are ignoring my warnings, to fill their farm tanks right now, donāt wait for the pull back that never comes. I talked to one of these neighbors yesterday that has a skidsteer with a forestry head on it, he had to turn down a job, or the job had to be priced so high, the customer could not afford it. All due to the cost of diesel to and from the jobsite, combined with the nearly 3 gallons an hour that the machine uses while grinding up cedars. That was a $10,000 job that he lost.
I remember some highways looking deserted at the height of the ā74 gas crisis.
The stats that really matter, especially that last one
I was a young teen in the 70s and remember some of the inflation craziness. My parents were building a bigger home to get the six of us out of our cramped bungalow. My dad told us later, that only a short time after construction had begun, the developer offered him $10,000.00 to not move in. Dad turned it down.
I also remember the crazy early 80ās when I moved to Alberta. First ever car loan was at 22% interest. The Canada Savings Bond payroll savings plan was selling bonds at 19% interest! 
Crazy times indeed!
Yes Jan, I paid 24% on a used car loan about 1980. 10 year Treasuries at 15%. The mortgage on my home was 14% in 1983ish. Crazytown. However, I am concerned that things will be even crazier in this chapter. More popcorn, please.
Me, too! 1st car loan in 1981, worked in the CA Bay Area in the next years, and then after leaving CA, I stupidly bought a house in 1985 on an adjustable rate mortgage based on one form or another of a T-Bill rate. The loan went up 2%/year or 6% over the life of the loan. It was 6% higher 3 years later! Wow, what a sap! I was really house poor and never got an ARM again!
You got a good deal by todayās standards on that diesel. I just had to pay $5.80/gal, which is very painful. Things will be breaking soon if they arenāt already!
I bought a commercial property in the fall of 1987, I was buying it to move my business into, I had to expand and get into a better part of town. At the time an adjustable rate loan was all I could get, 16.9%. I went from renting at $450 a month for a hole in the wall, to paying $2600 a month. I was lucky though, in my case the rate dropped about 2% over the 10 year term on the loan and it actually paid off in 8 1/2 years. At that point, the mortgage payment turned into a rent payment, to me. I rented it to myself until 15 years ago when I moved to a larger building. I still own that original property today, its been a rental of mine for 15 years. In round numbers, the property has paid me 4 times its original purchase price in net income, after taxes and insurance. Plus due to inflation, the property tax assessment claims its worth a lot more than I paid for it.
While writing this, I decided to ask Grok some questions. I plugged in the same number I used to buy the property, once it was paid off, rather than renting to me, I had sold it and invested the money into the markets. The condition was that as soon as I invested it, I started taking the same amount out of the market portfolio as I was paying myself in rent. Based on average returns, the portfolio could not have sustained the level of income, it would be worthless today, where I still own the original property that is worth more than double what I paid for it. Iām sure a savvy investor could have done better than the average, but thatās not me. I like property investment over the markets, but thatās just me. I had a rather wealthy friend tell me years ago he preferred to own real estate vs paper, I guess I followed his advise, he died a multi millionaire.
US Series E Savings Bonds locked in high interest rates during that time.
I went the rental property route and markets on advice of my CPA, and have also done some thoughts. Yeah, some of the things bought did go up over decades as measured in fiat dollars, which are taxable increases.
You might want to consider rerunning some of your numbers, based more upon purchasing power value comparisons such as PMās.
After taking a very brief look at decades of hard work put into these investments, with mucho losses due to frauds, market manipulations, taxes, insurances, maintainence, the results shocked me.
With 20-20 hindsight, it is now obvious that my lack the skillset to be a great rentals manager was only exceeded by my ignorance of what the 
's were doing thieving the purchasing power value of my hard work.
Very sad. Males need to step up
Our TN govenor candidate i am volunteering on his campaign talks of weak males
I am well invested in PMās, not a soon as so many that bought silver at $7 and gold at $300, I waited until it was $10.80 before I went into silver, my first gold at $600. At least the metals helps to offset the inflation in the real estate. I told myself I would sell some of my silver when it hit $100, problem is I donāt need anything else in the way of farm equipment. my barn is full. I also didnāt want to pay the capital gains on selling a large quantity to a broker. I am hoping that now that they have made silver a critical mineral, we will see demand reach a point that in order for people to turn loose of their silver, they would suspend the capital gains tax, at least for a period of time. I think that would allow some of the larger stackers to part with some.
