Gail Tverberg: The Coming Energy Depression

MKI. I’m going to take my best guess at the reason for the “lack of empathy” and “hubris” comments. You have repeatedly written about how much easier life has gotten since about 1970. I think they are frustrated by what seems to be your lack of awareness of the terrific costs to ecosystems, human culture and those who have been left out in increasing numbers from this fantastic life style. To them (and me), all you can see is yourself and the people around you who have similar experiences.
You don’t see (or at least don’t mention):

  • our toxic agricultural system whose biggest export is topsoil into the worlds oceans
  • the huge reduction in insect, ocean fish, and large mammal populations.
  • a financial system that has increasingly been gamed to funnel wealth to the well connected which, as energy and other resources have gotten more expensive to extract (the pie has stopped growing or at least slowed it's growth), has created a larger and larger underclass that is increasingly stressed, addicted, even dead from overdose, suicide, etc.
  • Climate change and soon ocean acidification are increasingly impacting us in bigger and bigger ways.
  • Our nation continues to prosecute declared and undeclared wars that have killed at least hundreds of thousands (probably millions) over that time frame and caused untold suffering for millions more.
  • Millions of people in dozens of countries have worked in horrid working conditions to produce the raw materials and cheap consumer goods our economy depends on.
In short, there is untold suffering in this system that has made life so much easier for some of us and it is absolutely awful for others. It is also absolutely unsustainable, probably on a time scale of a few decades or less. You haven't mentioned anything about the big picture, and what our easy lifestyles have caused for others, and the world or the unsustainability of it all. How can a sober adult be so simplistic? It's frustrating.

Duplicate

Quercue bicolor
Thank you for articulating the point I was trying to make. As a high school graduate my ability to express in great detail thoughts and concepts is not a strength. However, I know unfairness, apathy, nonsense and the difference between good and evil and I give my opinions a good effort. There are many, middle class folk like me out there and when people talk about how good everything is it’s an insult to each of us who are struggling. The motto is “my life is good so it must just suck to be you”. Chris does a good job about talking about fairness.
Catherine Austin Fitts says we are in a spiritual war, which I believe. And so in this war it’s important to point out unfairness, to realize that even if our life is good and our neighbors isn’t, which includes our feathered, furry and insect neighbors, then our lives are diminished as well. When we lose our love and empathy we lose our power in this war.
My favorite prayer-
King Aurthor - God grant me the wisdom to discover what’s right, the will to choose it, and the strength to endure it. Doing what’s right is a lonely road to travel. Unfairness is indeed frustrating.
Anyway a hug to you from Granny

QB: what seems to be your lack of awareness of the terrific costs to ecosystems, human culture and those who have been left out in increasing numbers from this fantastic life style.
First, I’m very aware, but we disagree, on the both facts and merits, regarding the “situation of our ecosystem”. But I really don’t want to turn this thread into that debate. Yes we disagree, but I don’t disparage your morals or intelligence (although you & AKG decry mine). OK, I get it. Please let it go.
Second, Re undeclared wars! working conditions! environment! and whatever else: sheese. What’s next to pile on? I could think of a thousand areas of moral concerns I have but I sure don’t think I have a right to demand (you or anyone else) share them or you “lack empathy” and are racked by “hubris” or ignorance. Look, people have different experiences, values, eduction, and brainpower. They should have the freedom to formulate their own opinions and lifestyles and suffer the rewards and consequences of doing so. This "you must think like me or you are a “_____” IMO prevents learning, growing, changing, and understanding. YMMV.
Third: The “gang up with friends” technique of discussion is not generally effective at persuading people. Certainly not empirical types like me.
Sure we disagree. That’s OK. I’m merely replying to be polite and let you know you have been read and heard. Yes I remain unconvinced of your positions. And yes I’m unperturbed that you (and others here) don’t agree with my POV. I harbor no ill to those who disagree with me. Heck, I was having these same arguments way back in the 1980s; my position then was a fairly accurate prediction of today, and I believe it remains so. But only the future can tell; a good Black Swan or war could make mincemeat of anyone’s predictions. I can assure you my POV is not hubris. It’s caution and humility. Sadly, I don’t see much of that here.

I can assure you my POV is not hubris. It's caution and humility.
That is truly hysterical MKI, thanks for the great laugh of the day!!

No hard feelings. I am just trying to understand what leads you to think the way you do - partly because it might help my view point evolve, partly because it might help me to be more empathetic towards you and partly because it might help me understand how to better explain my point of view to you and others who think similarly.

MKI wrote:
QB: what seems to be your lack of awareness of the terrific costs to ecosystems, human culture and those who have been left out in increasing numbers from this fantastic life style. First, I'm very aware, but we disagree, on the both facts and merits, regarding the "situation of our ecosystem". But I really don't want to turn this thread into that debate. Yes we disagree, but I don't disparage your morals or intelligence (although you & AKG decry mine). OK, I get it. Please let it go.
There is quite a bit of hard data about things like topsoil depletion, reduction in ocean fish, insect and large (wild) mammal biomass, reduction in forest area, increasing wealth gap, increasing deaths from opioid overdoses, etc. The environmental trends in particular are huge and point convincingly to a near term extinction crisis/ecosystem collapse. Are you aware of these trends? Can you explain them away?
MKI wrote:
Second, Re undeclared wars! working conditions! environment! and whatever else: sheese. What's next to pile on? I could think of a thousand areas of moral concerns I have but I sure don't think I have a right to demand (you or anyone else) share them or you "lack empathy" and are racked by "hubris" or ignorance. Look, people have different experiences, values, eduction, and brainpower. They should have the freedom to formulate their own opinions and lifestyles and suffer the rewards and consequences of doing so. This "you must think like me or you are a "_____" IMO prevents learning, growing, changing, and understanding. YMMV.
Forget moral concerns. A few simple questions to ask 1) "Are these problems big enough that they are reasonably likely to cause a reversal in this trend towards easier lives in the near future?" If so, then it's wise to consider or them. 2) "The way I and a minority of wealthy people on the planet live today is unprecedented in human history even as recently as a few decades ago. It is also unique even today when considering humanity as a whole. But there are significant consequences to this lifestyle both ecologically and to people in other parts of the world (and in my own country). After considering this, are the benefits of this life style it really worth it?" Or maybe you don't buy the part about significant consequences.
MKI wrote:
Third: The "gang up with friends" technique of discussion is not generally effective at persuading people. Certainly not empirical types like me.
I agree. It's unlikely to be effective. Please forgive our venting our frustration with what we perceive to be naivete or hubris on your part. Yes, there is value in being empirical. Where do you stand on allowing emotions to inform the thinking process? My take is that emotions developed over millions of years of evolution for a reason. When used in conjunction with intellect, they can help us determine what is important.
MKI wrote:
Sure we disagree. That's OK. I'm merely replying to be polite and let you know you have been read and heard. Yes I remain unconvinced of your positions. And yes I'm unperturbed that you (and others here) don't agree with my POV. I harbor no ill to those who disagree with me. Heck, I was having these same arguments way back in the 1980s; my position then was a fairly accurate prediction of today, and I believe it remains so. But only the future can tell; a good Black Swan or war could make mincemeat of anyone's predictions. I can assure you my POV is not hubris. It's caution and humility. Sadly, I don't see much of that here.
Yes, the future is unpredictable. Perhaps your POV can be interpreted caution and humility if your goal is to best position yourself to maintain/increase ease and comfort in the near to mid-term. What if your goal was assess the most significant risks to the ongoing project of civilization as well as the comfort or even survival of our offspring and then act in a way most likely to mitigate these risks? I think that is the goal of many/most of us here at PP. It leads to very different actions than the first goal. Perhaps that is where the misunderstanding comes from.

Yes, but for the record I’m not putting myself on a pedestal here, MKI and I likely are more similar than we are different. But, I ask on a daily basis, as Stephen Jenkinson so eloquently put it “to which planetary being can I turn to say, I’m sorry, I had no idea”. I suspect MKI’s reaction to such a question would be…
Huh?
An understanding of the question certainly isn’t evident in his comments… And yes, I do detest the hubris inherent in MKI’s POV. Just as I detested my own hubris during the “fear” stage of waking up to our predicament, and I payed the price. And as for gratitude, I’d love to know where MKI’s gratitude comes from, I personally am deeply grateful for my privilege because I know the price to others; including the natural world.
And on the technology issue, I’m certainly not going to put my faith in it as a saviour from OUR Hubris. For some reason, my first more lengthy response was eaten… Seems to be something wrong with the Robot checker!!! Lol, it gets better :slight_smile: It took 24 hrs to post…
Mars here we come!!!

MKI wrote:
QB: what seems to be your lack of awareness of the terrific costs to ecosystems, human culture and those Third: The "gang up with friends" technique of discussion is not generally effective at persuading people. Certainly not empirical types like me.
Empirical types would back up their assertions with actual empirical data, not superfluous (and often spurious) fluffy statements like you do. You, sir, are no engineer. You are a person behind the keyboard pretending to be one.

If I am wrong, prove it. Post data, source that data, and negate the points Chris and others have posted one by one, empirically and scientifically, and maybe people here will actually take you seriously again. Until then, you are merely a charlatan conjuring unsubstantiated illusions, opinion, and fru-fru.

-Snydeman

Is there decoupling of energy and economic growth? The data suggest that it IS possible:
https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#_state_time_value=2014;&marker_select@_geo=gbr&trailStartTime=1960;&_geo=usa&trailStartTime=1960;&_geo=che&trailStartTime=1980;&_geo=sgp&trailStartTime=1971;&_geo=jpn&trailStartTime=1960;&_geo=lux&trailStartTime=1960;&_geo=nor&trailStartTime=1960;;&opacitySelectDim:0.45&axis/_x_which=energy/_use/_per/_person&domainMin:null&domainMax:null&zoomedMin:null&zoomedMax:null&scaleType=linear;&axis/_y_which=gdppercapita/_us/_inflation/_adjusted&domainMin:null&domainMax:null&zoomedMin:null&zoomedMax:null;;;&chart-type=bubbles
Switzerland and Norway seem to have done particularly well in this regard whereas Iceland have gone in the opposite direction.
BTW, Gapminder is a great resource for looking at data; they have done all of the hard work!

Good supplimental interview with Tyson Slocum of Public Citizen about the latest in Trump administration energy policy

Having been reading this site off and on mostly off since the beginning I have found one thing to be absolutely rock hard solidly consistent. It is the propensity of the owners to frame interviews and conversations in certain ways.
I remember a podcast with Jim Rogers , who I like a lot. He would have nothing to do with the frame that was presented to him. I found it quite refreshing.
One other observation I have along with frame, is that the podcasts serve almost entirely as platforms to present the resident paradigm. I make no judgement whether the paradigm is correct or not, as we shall all see.
I have read Gails work from back in her oil drum days and subscribe to her blog. I was looking forward to hearing what she had to say. Unfortunately the "interview " was mostly Chris’s platform to present his perspective. he did this by not only framing the discussion but by also taking up most of the time. This is a regualr occurrence on these podcasts which is why I rarely listen (or rather read as my hearing is not so good). But she is a fave so I gave it a shot.
Having measured the number of inches in the transcript I found that Chris occupied approx. 46.5 inches as opposed to 26.5 for Gail. certainly as the owner of the site that is his prerogative. I would probably do the same. However as a consumer I can get his perspective all over the site whereas Gail is only on for a short time.
The skill of interviewing I believe lies in being able to draw new and revealing information from the interviewee. There was nothing new here for me

Mohammed Mast wrote:
Having been reading this site off and on mostly off since the beginning I have found one thing to be absolutely rock hard solidly consistent. It is the propensity of the owners to frame interviews and conversations in certain ways. I remember a podcast with Jim Rogers , who I like a lot. He would have nothing to do with the frame that was presented to him. I found it quite refreshing. One other observation I have along with frame, is that the podcasts serve almost entirely as platforms to present the resident paradigm. I make no judgement whether the paradigm is correct or not, as we shall all see. I have read Gails work from back in her oil drum days and subscribe to her blog. I was looking forward to hearing what she had to say. Unfortunately the "interview " was mostly Chris's platform to present his perspective. he did this by not only framing the discussion but by also taking up most of the time. This is a regualr occurrence on these podcasts which is why I rarely listen (or rather read as my hearing is not so good). But she is a fave so I gave it a shot. Having measured the number of inches in the transcript I found that Chris occupied approx. 46.5 inches as opposed to 26.5 for Gail. certainly as the owner of the site that is his prerogative. I would probably do the same. However as a consumer I can get his perspective all over the site whereas Gail is only on for a short time. The skill of interviewing I believe lies in being able to draw new and revealing information from the interviewee. There was nothing new here for me

There is merit to your criticism to some degree, and I felt like Chris was covering for Gail’s lack of insight with his own words in places. Yet, I don’t this this is often nor always the case. Hear the latest podcast with Art Berman? Chris is on the mic maybe 20% by comparison to Art. It depends on the interview. Mish, fo instance, likes to talk a lot. Charles and Chris seem balanced in most ones they do; same with interviews with Axel.

That at being said, I can’t imagine that generating enough original content at the rate Chris and Adam do, and on a weekly basis at that, can be all that easy. So, I’m wondering where you find constant “new”insights from on a weekly basis?