sometimes I am jealous…they may have it figured out
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The Amish are playing the long game and are going to have the most delayed “Told you so!” in cultural history.
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When it comes to Silver and Gold, I don’t look at them from an investment angle. I look at them as insurance. I likely would never sell until I am flat up against the wall, with no other choice. Like, if I was out of money, and out of things to sell, but had to pay my property tax or lose my house. (Ok, maybe if I don’t have enough for a cup of coffee.) That kinda thing. As for investing in equities of natural resource companies, well, share holders are last to be paid in a bankruptcy case. And recessions, though some think they have been banned, tend to cause financial difficulties among business entities.
That said, looking at the Schiller CAPE, and the Buffet Indicator, stocks are apparently priced for perfection, pretty much across the board. When the confidence factor in these markets finally breaks, even good company’s shares generally get caught in the downdraft.
For now, I think I’ll just stay in stodgy old treasuries, with a duration in the area of 6 years or so, max. Income producing assets such as real estate, with double digit cap rates. And FDIC covered bank CD’s in the 4.5 %+ range, where I can find them.
In short, I don’t have enough years left between me and the marble orchard to ride out a 10-20 year bear market.
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Makes me feel guilty for exercising the luxury of driving my 1999 Camry. 
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If its coming out of the ground, it will likely scarcer and harder more expensive to extract. Wonder if tungsten will become a hot commodity at some point.
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Im surprised copper isnt higher than that. So it could explode 10x-100x due to demand in everything? Idk are copper water pipes still used but huge amount need it and big quantities.
Related to that, could these middle east “war scares” that seem to push funds selling assets, delaying these price hikes? It seems convenient, make that scare event, then big funds sell their assets, prices drop, some more time taken before prices skyrocket.
As Simon Dixon suggests, nobody seems to want war but theater is still played. Which mostly benefits financial markets. Fund managers hate 1% growth, so need some extra volatility made.
The volatility discussion is valuable. I hadn’t thought of seeing investments as either long or short volatility trades.
Some investments make sense if tomorrow is the same as yesterday… interest on CDs, collecting rent, etc.
Others are counting on a change. Buy something cheap planning that it will go up in value. Or buy insurance in case something bad happens. Gold is insurance against future currency debasement, geopolitical instability, etc.
Some investments can have both aspects. A rental property can generate cash flow (low volatility) while appreciating in value (high volatility). A stock can generate dividends and go up in value.
So while it is good to prepare for future events, it is also good to realize such events may be a ways away. Then have some portion of the portfolio invested assuming the event doesn’t happen. That way you’re not on the sidelines for years.
This is a good additional tool for thinking about investing.
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Has Chris or Paul Kiker done a study on “the unit”? I am a new subscriber here, listened and have taken action with respect to the podcasts for years, and now … I saw a series of you-tubers talking about the implementation of “the unit”, the exchange vehicle whereby BRICS nations will trade INTERNALLY with each other. Various sources state it will be backed by 40% Au and other member fiat currencies; other sources state 40% Au and 10% Ag plus fiat. the idea is that to fully implement the unit, it will take 2-5 years’ worth of Ag , to still be bought up by the BRICs nations. If true this would be a HUGE source of Ag demand… Anyone? Opinion? --CJ
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I’m still looking for an answer what being 40% backed means?
Hi findingmyway, as I understand it. The central banks of each BRIC member is buying up physical Gold and Silver plus a chuck of each BRIC nations fiat currency. Then they can ‘purchase’ units from their own collective "international bank of settlements’ for lack of a better word.
Then when say Brazil wants to buy Steel from China for example, they will pay that value amount in their own units to China directly. No need to first convert Rial to USD, then use Swift to pay China, then China converts USD back to Yuan. they effectively cut out the US dollar. Any number of BRIC-like nations can choose to become part of the new monetary system. The Central Banks holding of Au and Ag give “the unit” its legitimacy.
The more trade that takes place worldwide in the unit, the more need for Gold and Silver collateral to back the currency of exchange (the unit). One could see how this would put a huge floor under the price of physical Gold and Silver…
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Like I said, I would love to hear Chris and Paul’s analysis of this… !
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I really like the idea of owning more commodities, but I am going to vote for mines – especially copper. I don’t believe oil is the master resource in 2026 that it was just 3 years ago. A HUGE structural shift is happening globally within ±20 degrees of the equator. The only exception might be the sahel in Africa where distances are long. If you go to Bengalaru, or Nairobi, or Sri Lanka, or Jakarta, or Thailand, or Costa Rica it is the same practically everywhere near the equator. People are ditching all the small gas vehicles and going electric in a BIG way. It is because it is IMMEDIATELY cheaper. In practically every place I’ve mentioned, you can buy a small electric vehicle + 5-6 kW home battery/inverter + 1.2-1.5 kW solar panels on a 3 year loan. And that loan payment per month may be less than what you were paying for gas per month. There are ZERO new gas tuk-tuks in Sri Lanka. The e-trike is taking over the philipines. The cargo bike is replacing the boda boda in Nairobi. Vietnam e-scooter is certainly over 80-90% of the market. And the people who are switching have a HUGE quality of life upgrade in 2-3 years after the loan is paid. Heck – even the toyota hilux is getting hit with a huge sales slowdown. A cargo e-trike in rural philipines can do 80% of the tasks a diesel hilux could do at 15% initial cost and 100% less fuel. For 15% cost of a hilux you have the cargo e-trike, the solar panels, inverter and home battery. Plus that home battery means the home has reliable power which is another big upgrade. Oil has a demand leak in the equatorial economy. Countries and economies farther away from the equator don’t see this because winter comes, and distances are bigger. How is the demand leak for oil vs the oil under investment going to balance. The equatorial economy is not a huge consumer of oil, but it does make a difference in the marginal price. Food for thought. I’m going to bet oil rises a little bit, but nowhere near what this video is implying. The demand leak is going to make sure oil stays under $80-90 is my bet.
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I respectfully and strongly disagree…
As far as I’m concerned everything that you described is derivative of oil and energy and I think that oil coal and energy they’re going to be biggest winners of all…
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Welcome aboard Wendell, and thanks for the equator area insights. It is truly amazing how much info gets shared on this site. Thanks for sharing.
Would love to hear additional insights on the factors in “equator zone” as you encounter those facts.
Are specific types of batteries most popular? Lead acid / lithium / lithium phosphate iron?
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Thanks for response. It clarified a few things for me. To paraphrase.
- Each country will have a stock of assets (precious, commodities, other currencies)
- They will be permitted to “create” a quantity of units based on that stockpile
- The units will be used to trade with other counties
- (speculative) they will have an exchange rate between the unit and their internal currency
So I can see how it can replace the USD in trade. Essentially it will play the roll of the USD with the backing distributed among countries and various assets. (Similar to Bretton Woods except that was based on one country the US and one asset gold)
I guess my problem is with the phrase “backed by”. To me that means I should be able to redeem a unit and exchange it for a fixed amount of what it is backed by. I’m thinking more along the lines of collateral.
I see that will remove many of the problems with the current system. Its going to be quite the negotiation and regulatory regarding what should be included and its value. I think having multiple commodities/currencies in the basket and the lack of redeemability will be its Achilles heel.
Interesting to think about how loans would work in such a system.
Appears I’m firmly in the camp of the unit must be a chit with easy redeem for specified amount of gold. Anything else is too open to jiggery pokery.
Great notes. thanks for the reply!