This was on twitter…no idea how much stock to put in this..no pun intended
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That had a nov 15 2024 date on it.
H
Wed, Dec 10,
Heads, you win from the local coin shop
Tails, you lose at the the local coin shop.
Here is what I saw wednesday.
Heads (Winners) got to pick from good Inventories.
#1: That even included the dude that was just able to pick thru a good assortmtent of real copper pennies. I asked the owner, and was told it happens with buying and selling of pennies every day. It just depends upon a person’s means and the experiences they have been through before. Other more typical business was brisk at times.
One single elderly lady brought in a heavy silver coffee/tea pitcher. She liked the price but held on for it to go up more.
Tales of the losers observed, that got their tails handed to them on silver plated junk trays.
Tail #1: Nice guy came in with 2024 American Silver eagles left from annual Xmass gift exchanges of last year. He just wanted to swap the previous years for 2025s for this years gifts.
Coins went across an electronic scanner. 4 out of the 7 were China fakes and 3 were real. Dude left with his fakes smoking in his pockets. Loss of $68 x qty 4.
Ouch.
Tail #2 person came in with PM jewelry, and it was all fake costume jewelry. A not so happy customer.
Tail #3, dude had bought a St Gaudens decades ago at a coin show. No idea where or when. He was concerned and wanted it tested. It was gold plated lead.
It left smoking in his pocket for the grand prize loser experience of a $4,200+ loss of current purchasing power. Ouch! Ouch! Ouch! guess it could have been worse.
I thought the fakes looked pretty good. Shows what I know.
Shop just used an electronic scanner that measures resistivity. It even detects the gold coins embedded with a tungsten flat disc in the middle. They did not mess with weights, sizes although that is probably reccomended. They just handle enough to spot most fakes and electronic scan the gold and silver.
Do your own due diligence.
(revised to St Guadens from St Gardens,
blasted auto spell checker!)
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Ackchually…they’ve already begun and “reserve management” will translate into $36 billion in the ten days between 12/12 and 12/22
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Torsten Slok of Apollo is now in John Hussman’s camp…expected stock market returns for the next decade are…zero.
" I ran $15 billion at Fidelity Magellan and the single biggest lesson I can give you is this: the price you pay is the only thing that determines whether you make money or lose money over time. Everything else is noise.
I have seen people buy the greatest companies in the world—Coca-Cola, Disney, Gillette—at 50, 60, 70 times earnings because they were convinced the growth would never end. When the growth slowed even a little, the stocks got destroyed. Quality didn’t save them. The price killed them.
I have also bought companies that were absolute dogs—companies losing money, companies in dying industries, companies nobody wanted—and made 10 or 20 times my money because I paid so little that the only direction was up. The margin of safety was in the price, not the story.
There is no such thing as a good stock at any price. There is only a good price for a stock. Pay too much and you lose. Pay little enough and you can be wrong about almost everything and still win.
I made 29 times my money in La Quinta Inns, a company nobody ever heard of. I made 20 times in Philip Morris when it was the most hated stock in America. I did not need a crystal ball. I needed a low price.
That’s been true since 1920 and it will be true in 2120. The price you pay is the only margin of safety you ever get." - Peter Lynch
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Peter Lynch must have learn that from me…
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Not surprised…but bloody hell…I better go on a buying spree soon.
I need some things for the addition.
What is wrong with these people?
We are cratering the middle class.
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Reading the S&P P/E vs return chart differently:
Assuming 5% inflation, one would expect to lose real money over the following 10 years investing when P/E > 18 or so.
Investing today one would expect zero nominal return over ten years.
Yeah buy and hold the whole market isn’t a good long term strategy. Better to cycle in when cheap, out when expensive.
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On Coast to Coast AM last night they had a guy who went into detail on who really owns your stocks and other securities, he named the companies formed to ‘hold’ securities which you think you own, etc., and described the progression to tokenization of everything:
The Great Taking / Battlefield Hauntings
Hosted by Richard Syrett
Guests: Mel Mattison
Sunday - December 14, 2025
The Great Taking
In the first half, guest host Richard Syrett joined financial expert Mel Mattison to discuss “The Great Taking,” the idea that global elites are planning to confiscate all financial assets. At the heart of the conversation was the concept of ownership, with Mattison revealing that the public’s common understanding of stock ownership diverges sharply from the legal realities. He explained that while individuals believe they “own” stock, they do not actually hold the legal title to those shares. Instead, they possess what is called a “security entitlement,” recorded electronically by the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC), a largely unknown but dominant financial intermediary.
Mattison claimed that in extreme circumstances, such as a financial collapse, creditors can claim assets held in brokerage accounts. This means that if a brokerage firm or intermediary goes bankrupt, investors may lose their stocks to creditors, a scenario he termed “The Great Taking.” This concept was first detailed by David Rogers Webb, a hedge fund manager turned whistleblower who uncovered these legal vulnerabilities and subsequently moved to Sweden amid his concerns.
The discussion expanded to the growing trend of “tokenization,” where not only stocks and bonds but all assets—including real estate and private businesses—are being converted into digital tokens on blockchains. Mattison described tokenization as a critical step toward consolidating asset control: “They want to expand this, not just to stocks and bonds, but literally… homes, real estate, car loans… The tokenization of everything.” He warned that this shift could enable creditors to seize a broader range of assets without the need for new legislation. “Nothing would need to go through Congress,” he cautioned.
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That is for people that know when the cycle is cheap vs expensive.
Yet all of the news / data / earnings / actual inflation rate / currency debasement estimates / etc. are suspect and either legally or illegally manipulated. So, assuming we are not one of the chosen insiders,
So who really knows?
War Games (the movie)
“the only winning move is not to play”
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I think it’s feasible to sort out cheap vs expensive. Big topic but fundamental analysis and technical analysis might play a role.
For instance, silver has been very cheap until recently. I think it’s likely to hit $100 and maybe $200 by next June. So not as cheap now but compared to where I think it’s heading, it’s still a buy.
Or look to cash flow when evaluating a business.
Or look to historical cycles like commodities vs equities. At certain points one is much cheaper than the other, so a possible trade is selling the high one and buying the lower, waiting several years, then reversing the trade for a profit.
Etc
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Whatever you do so NOT buy silver or gold off of eBay.
At the 9 minute mark you’ll see a guy’s hopes and dreams get crushed:
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Weigh off.
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