Grasshopper Nation: Planning For Those Who Aren't Prepared

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Dimitri Orlov teams up with The Saker (a Russian military analyst) and several other Russians living in the west to voice their concern about the western provocation of Russia.  This is quite concerning to me.
A Russian Warning

We, the undersigned, are Russians living and working in the USA. We have been watching with increasing anxiety as the current US and NATO policies have set us on an extremely dangerous collision course with the Russian Federation, as well as with China.
The undersigned include: Evgenia Gurevich, Ph.D., Victor Katsap, PhD,  Andrei Kozhev, Serge Lubomudrov, Dmitry Orlov and The Saker (A. Raevsky)
But we—knowing both Russian history and the current state of Russian society and the Russian military, cannot swallow these lies. We now feel that it is our duty, as Russians living in the US, to warn the American people that they are being lied to, and to tell them the truth. And the truth is simply this: If there is going to be a war with Russia, then the United States will most certainly be destroyed, and most of us will end up dead.
This group brings a particular perspective to this issue that includes knowledge of the sophisticated technological state of the Russian military and a keen eye to the "Russian is evil" mythology being produced in the western press.  This is combined with the progressive encirclement of Russia with western military assets, most recently placing the Aegis Ashore anti-ballistic missile sites virtually on Russia's borders.

They offer an insiders perspective of the Russian temperament:  Russia does not surrender.

There is no objective reason why US and Russia should consider each other adversaries. The current confrontation is entirely the result of the extremist views of the neoconservative cult, whose members were allowed to infiltrate the US Federal government under President Bill Clinton, and who consider any country that refuses to obey their dictates as an enemy to be crushed. ... [A] maniacal insistence that the USA must be a world empire, not a just a regular, normal country, and that every national leader must either bow down before them, or be overthrown. In Russia, this irresistible force has finally encountered an immovable object.
I have the impression that they are voicing a real concern over where this global domination effort could go.  They are seeking to remind westerners that their own civilization will be destroyed in a kinetic war with Russia.
[I]f tomorrow a war were to break out between the US and Russia, it is guaranteed that the US would be obliterated. At a minimum, there would no longer be an electric grid, no internet, no oil and gas pipelines, no interstate highway system, no air transportation or GPS-based navigation. Financial centers would lie in ruins. Government at every level would cease to function. US armed forces, stationed all around the globe, would no longer be resupplied. At a maximum, the entire landmass of the US would be covered by a layer of radioactive ash. We tell you this not to be alarmist, but because, based on everything we know, we are ourselves alarmed. If attacked, Russia will not back down; she will retaliate, and she will utterly annihilate the United States.

…

Even if the entire Russian leadership is killed in a first strike, the so-called “Dead Hand” (the “Perimetr” system) will automatically launch enough nukes to wipe the USA off the political map. We feel that it is our duty to do all we can to prevent such a catastrophe.

They call on NATO military officers to think critically and take the moral high ground by refusing orders that violate the Nuremberg Tribunal war crimes criteria and to refuse orders that initiate a war of aggression.

 

22

Charles-
Fascinating that its illegal to post the market price of Venezuela's currency.  I claim that the value of the currency reflects the confidence of foreigners and the locals in the government in power, and if you are a central planner who wants to control all aspects of your nation, certainly you don't want anyone posting daily evidence of that collapse of confidence.

Hmm.  This would be another "signpost to leave the country."  When the black market rate for the currency is substantially higher than the official rate, and then it becomes illegal to post the black market rate.  At that moment, you've lost the freedom to talk about reality.

http://fusion.net/story/155182/meet-the-venezuelan-rebel-armed-with-unofficial-exchange-rates-and-an-untraceable-ip/

23

I am sorry you dont think you can store food, but I believe you can. Anything and everything is better than nothing, so instead of getting overwhelmed, just start slowly and steadily. If you have $5 a week, you can get started. Better if you have $5 each a week, so $10, but f $5 is it, start there. If you dont think you have this to spare, you arent looking hard enough, pick one thing to cut back on, so many choices : food budget ( 2 meals a week meat free or no coffees or snacks out or ?), Drive a little less, downgrade your phone minutes or internet speed ( We just downgraded internet speed, dont even notice), etc… since you see it is this important, I know you can find $5 or $10 a week to put towards the effort.
 The LDS cannery has prepackaged cans of staple foods, one person/months worth is 6 cans, $20ish total price (I havent checked lately for exact). You want to get 5 cans grains ( rice, oats) and one of beans per person/month. You can get one months worth per month. Or, package your own grains in cheap or free 5 gallon buckets. You can store under your bed. If you move your bed away from the wall 1 ft., you can store 1 years supply for one person (so, 6 months for the 2 of you) in 12 5 gallon buckets, stacked 2 high in this waste space. Or raise the bed, and put under it. You cn put flat LDS cases of cans on the floor of your closet, proabably another years worth, flat, not stacked, and then just put your shoes on top of these. 

 

So, you have enough money and room to add at least one months worth of staples per month. Start now.

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I have been thinking more about Cherihuka's comments that she really isn't too prepared.  Sometimes I feel a lot the same.  My small suburban garden is profoundly too small to feed my household.
Yet for the current state of the world we are fairly well adapted.  I have a day job as a professional and quitting to live off the land doesn't make sense at the current time.

Should we experience a many-month long collapse like Venezuela, I hope that our stored food and water would get us through the transition period.

The big advantage I think we have, thanks to the Crash Course, is that we are already anticipating collapse and can change our life routines fairly promptly when the starting gun fires and it is completely clear that "the Titanic has begun to list."  We are through the denial phase and the early making-sense-of-it phase.

I already have a good idea what pipes, pumps and purifiers I need to finish our rainwater collection system.  I know where I would expand the garden, how much compost and mulch I would want delivered, etc. where to put the chicken coop and that I need to find a meat CSA and veggie CSA promptly.

And as soon as my wife sees the need, we could convert our pretty lawn to garden over a few weeks.

However, my very smart, but unaware neighbors will spend much of the collapse period denying that it is happening and repeating the mantra "everything will be back to normal soon."

So maybe what we have is greater readiness for collapse.

Super cheap food storage strategy for a transition

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gave  up trying to string the 21st century out into the…instead found i could live with the 19th early 20th century technology and am waiting to step back. Our community needs a miller and harness maker/tanner. pretty much ready.
Kelsey continues her healthy approach towards parturition. 

 

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Half a ton of grains and beans in the pantry would be A Good Thing, but give thought to what you'd actually do with them when the time comes to use them.
Collect recipes for a variety of ways to cook the things you're storing, and test them now to find out what you like. Collect spices and condiments accordingly, to add to your stash. That could make a big difference to your pleasure in eating, either for simply rotating your supplies or in time of actual need.

Also, since we're preparing for collapse, make sure you're equipped for some basic cooking without electricity if needed. and know how to use what you've got.

27

On that episode of Twilight Zone, it's always been one of my favorites.

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I chuckled when I read your post, as my family has pretty much had the same conversation up here…in fact, we have a large enough property where it is too our benefit to convert some of the lawn into productive land…  So, I doubled the size of the garden this year, and made the "green effort" of doing so without using any fossil fuels.  I was so into the work that I actually spent many mornings before school (a few times out in the garden right before 5:00 A.M.) working on getting the grass/roots out of the soil.  It looks pretty good.
There was an extensive area that we cleared for the orchard, and I have to admit a sick pleasure in going around and putting out random squash seeds in mounds of dirt.  Trying the indigenous approach.  If the shit hits the fan, I hope to have plenty of squash and dry beans to make it through the winter. 

Our chickens arrive on Sunday!

 

 

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I like to go to garage sales late on Sunday afternoon. People have garage sales to get rid of unwanted stuff. Early birds get there early and snap up the "good" stuff. When I get there, the pickings can be pretty slim and the folks having the sale are ready to get on with their lives.
I always strike up a conversation with the owners. Eventually, they ask me what I'm looking for. I tell them that I'd like to get into canning and ask them for advice on the subject. They'll tell me what I need and how to do it. About a third of the time, they say that they have some old jars … if I'd like them. Sometimes they want a quarter each, but most of the time, they'll offer to give it to me for free. Then, they say that I'll need a pressure cooker/canner … and they sometimes have one. I've gotten some really nice ones for around $20. If they haven't used it in 10+ years, they're thinking they might as well get rid of it.

I don't lie, but I'm not being completely truthful. They might assume that I'm a pleasant old guy who is down on his luck. Their goal is to get rid of unwanted stuff. I let them feel good about helping me.

When I get home, they get stored in the garage with the other excess equipment. I've got about a dozen of them in various sizes. I also have over 500# of rice and the same amount of pinto beans that I plan to give to my neighbors when things go south. If things go way south, it won't be enough, but it will give them an opportunity to get through the immediate crisis. While their bellies are full, they won't see me as an enemy/target.

Pressure cookers work really well to cook tough foods with little energy and they can be used over a makeshift campfire or a propane stove. If the electricity goes out, I can put my freezer goods in jars and preserve rather than watch it all spoil.

Cast iron cookware is another good find. If it is really rusty, nobody wants it, but it is very easy to season. The heavier, the better. It can be used on a campfire or propane stove/BBQ. I always buy canned tuna packed in oil by the case when a store has a loss leader sale. Precook the beans and rice in the pressure cooker and finish it off with some tuna in the cast iron. The oil keeps it from burning and adds flavor.

Boxes are a horrible thing to constrain thoughts. If you don't think outside the box, you won't see opportunity.

Grover

 

 

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I'm pleased at the thoughtful comments posted so far. Some quick reactions:

  • Jbarney -- Yes, the retirement expectations of many of us need to be revisited given the depressing data in the article above. I don't love the idea of putting money to work (on the long side) in this market, either. Personally, I continue to build cash -- part of which is parked as "dry powder" to deploy after a market correction, with the remainder funding investment across the seven other non-financial Forms of Capital. Like you, I prefer rural to urban (it's why I live where I do now), though I agree with those who calculate that suburbia will actually be the worst zone to live in if there's a real long-term crisis -- it has the worst of both worlds: fewer centralized services compared to cities, and fewer resources compared to rural areas. Hearty congrats on your garden expansion and your imminent chicken delivery!
  • Les -- Props to you, as well, for the impressively constructed raised beds! Those things look like they could withstand an artillery shelling. I empathize with your thoughts on the inevitability of collapse. My feelings is: We do what we can do. The alternative is simply resignation, making the outcome inevitable. I sense you think somewhat similarly -- and I'm confident your beautiful beds and the bounty of their harvest is inspiring your neighbors to do more, too, than they would otherwise.
  • Cherihuka -- I hear your anxiety at your level of (un)preparedness, which most of on this site either share or remember. I simply advise you to note that you're already better off than most by already being aware of the real rules of the real game that is underway. And it sounds like you've put at least some preliminary preparations in place. As Chris has been saying ever since I've known him -- the different between just 3% prepared vs not at all is night and day. It's true. And remember the Eight Forms Of Capital framework we use in Prosper! -- even if cash is scarce, there are a number of other equally-important areas of resilience that don't require much money (if any) to develop. And I agree wholeheartedly with your idea of starting to live now with scarcity. The more of us who "make ourselves rich by making our needs few" (a sentiment stolen from Thoreau) today, the fewer folks who will suffer if our way of life gets halved tomorrow.
  • Mark_BC -- One note of caution: don't make your plans too dependent on the US dollar losing its reserve currency status in the near term. A decade ago, many folks who think like us were confident we were a year or two away from that happening. But even today, there are smarter minds than mine who just don't see another existing currency replacing the dollar anytime soon, for purely mathematical reasons.  Might we see something new, like the SDR Jim Rickard's predicts? Maybe, but I don't see the world switching over to that without years and years of ubiquitous currency collapse first. Just my 2 cents. Otherwise, your life sounds pretty well-situated in terms of resilience. To your question about PMs vs paying off mortgage -- the short answer is: discuss this with a profession financial advisor, ideally one who understand the macro risks we discuss on this site (you can talk to the firm we endorse for free -- Fyi: they can't open accounts for Canadian residents due to US/Canada regulations. But they can talk with you). FWIW, while I love the idea of freeing oneself from the shackles of a mortgage, I personally wouldn't do it with my PMs unless it was after they had gone through a substantial upwards re-valuation. 
  • Food Storage -- there were several comments about food storage and the canneries the Mormon Church offers. For those who haven't read it, I wrote in detail about my visit to a Mormon cannery, which was an excellent experience -- I highly recommend getting your long-term stored food from one. Also, Peak Prosperity's Food Storage wiki is one of the best and most comprehensive resources on the web, IMO, for this topic.
  • Grover -- Nice work on creating a resource for your community to tap in time of trouble. You are building a healthy vault of Social Capital in advance. After you hand out those cookers, rice and beans, you will have a lot of neighbors willing to reciprocate with other goods & services that you value. Way to pay it forward!
31

Everyone has such thoughtful and useful and encouraging responses. Sometimes it feels like little things aren't enough, but you all are right- they add up and they count toward something important. Giving up isn't an option anyway!
How could we quit when those we love, who cannot see and won't hear what's happening & what is coming, need us to be ready?

It's not impossible, it's just wearying sometimes (the weeks' news is not ever good anymore, and has made me feel not only pitifully unprepared, but inadequate for the task at hand… you know?) We just have so much ground to cover and time feels like it's getting short.

But resilience is all about getting back up on your feet and bouncing back, isn't it? Where there's a will, there's a way.

Grover, your tactics rock, thanks for sharing them! 

 

 

32

I swear the other guy is Peter Schiff too.

33

The installation of the NATO Aegis Ashore Missile Defense system in Romania and Poland tightens the noose on Russia.  More ominously, instillation of this system right on Russia's border is a step indicating that the USA has turned away from MAD towards the "winnable nuclear war" way of thinking. 
If either side feels that it can win and that nuclear war is inevitable, then both sides are motivated to try and seize the advantage of the first strike.  The stability of MAD (launching nuclear weapons would be suicide–don't EVER do that) suddenly shifts into instability (launching nuclear weapons in a surprise first strike gives us the best chance of winning).

Eric Zeuss publishes at The Saker (picked up at zh) Obama Slams the Door in Putin's Face.

Putin has requested to meet with Obama and discuss Russia's concerns about this encirclement and dismantling of MAD but Obama has refused to meet or open the topic for discussion.  Refusal to discuss the issue is itself a very clear response.

Shifting from MAD to Winnable Nuclear War

That theory, of a winnable nuclear war (which in the U.S. seems to be replacing the prior theory, called “M.A.D.” for Mutually Assured Destruction) was first prominently put forth in 2006 in the prestigious U.S. journal Foreign Affairs, headlining “The Rise of Nuclear Primacy” and which advocated for a much bolder U.S. strategic policy against Russia, based upon what it argued was America’s technological superiority against Russia’s weaponry and a possibly limited time-window in which to take advantage of it before Russia catches up and the opportunity to do so is gone.

Paul Craig Roberts in … “Washington Is Beating The War Drums” … observed that “US war doctrine has been changed. US nuclear weapons are no longer restricted to a retaliatory force, but have been elevated to the role of preemptive nuclear attack.”

A Russian correspondent, John Helmer, articulates the problem that Putin will be progressively cornered by this approach.  Even though Russia does not want a nuclear war, at some point, convinced that it is about to be attacked preemptively, Russia will feel that it must initiate an attack on NATO itself, first.  He refers to this as "The Trigger Point."   The history of election year "October Surprises" makes one wonder.....

For maximum effectiveness, an attack must be first, sudden, and completely without warning.  In all kinds of martial encounters from Karate, to gun fights at the OK Coral and now, to nuclear exchanges, shooting first offers great advantage.  John Helmer's article is recommended highly.  Please look at the people and institutions mentioned the John Helmer's article and the authors (and institutions sponsoring them) in the Rise of Nuclear Primacy paper.

Anyone have a "Shelter?"

34

Sand_Puppy… "Putin will be progressively cornered by this approach… Russia will feel that it must initiate an attack on NATO itself, first… The history of election year "October Surprises" makes one wonder…"
We are all trying to connect dots to find core understanding thru the latest events… I have a tendency to 'wonder' a lot because I do not want to wear a tinfoil hat… but here I think the pieces are beginning to culminate in lines going straight between dots. 

Put on the skeptic goggles if you can… but there have been continuous vids of military equipment on trains; out of the ordinary trains (and other movements) that cause people enough alarm to stop and video them and then post to youtube. I'm sure we would all prefer to take comfort in them, but the dots are adding up.

This 10 minute clip of various video locations doesn't offer speculation but shows not only these trains, but how those watching/video-ing them are alarmed by them - it is definitely out of the normal experience. 

Convoy Trains Transporting Military Vehicles Tanks Carrying Hauling Moving Equipment USA

... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZbP1rEE8CR8  

Here is one with the strange/U.N. insignia on vehicles (it's not the only one out there, either, just the most recent): 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CMoYiSuiO9Y     Would they need these for the Cascadia Drill???

None of the videos sound like the people are 'proud patriots' showing vids like bragging rights of our military might. They are all un-easy, if not alarmed or VERY perplexed. I've seen many vehicles on the trains sporting U.N. insignia (!) right alongside U.S. military tanks…

How can one NOT wonder when they can be seen along with the footage of FEMA stuff (detention/re-education camps? or just getting ready for Cascadia?), and stories of police state (things outside the law like exposed secret detention centers in various cities)… and that is creepy enough to warrant attention. Not that anyone could do anything about it, but tt seems that these 'fringe' ideas are worth looking at, because surprises on a grand scale- whatever they are - are not easy to deal with on any level. 

Now in light of sand_puppy's post, I "wonder" if it might actually be part of invasion defense measures. Perhaps against the Bear we've been poking with a stick. Or the dragon we've awoken from slumber and been blowing raspberries at.  

I'm sure we would love to get better, more reliable info than Dahboo77 or Alex Jones' speculations… anyone have a source of insider info or personal experience to validate/invalidate these trains… or a verifiable/reasonable explanation for the U.N. identifications? 

35
For those of you who want to start prepping and don't know where to start I highly recommend this guys blog. He reviews survival related ebooks and products that I have found very useful in my prepping adventures.
 
http://thesurvivalreviewer.com/index.php/2016/06/08/family-survival-course-review/
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I am reminded of my story of Chicken Little, who found a seed of corn.  She said, "A seed of corn!  I will plant it."  Then she asked the duck, the goose, the cat, the dog, etc… "Who will help me plant the corn?"  And they all said "not I".  So she said "I will do it myself, then."  Then the same thing happened for watering and weeding, harvesting and milling, and finally baking bread.  In each case, they refused to help.  So finally, when the bread was cooling, she asked "Who will help me eat this bread?" And all the animals said, "I will!!!"  And Chicken Little said, "No, when I asked for help in planting and weeding and harvesting and milling and baking, none of you were willing to help, and I had to do it myself.  Therefore, I will eat this bread myself."  So all the animals had chicken and dumplings for dinner.
Dave Fairtex, you still have hope.  Sometimes, maybe I do a little, too.  More often than not, I'm pessimistic about this whole thing.  And yes, this does relate exactly to the main theme at hand…  but sometimes I wonder if it even matters.  If the grasshoppers are actually wolves, we may go down no matter what we do.

Usually, I think they're wolves.  Sometimes, I think they're just human.  Often, I think the two are the same, and I despair.

Locust nation. 

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/04/23/science/looking-back-at-the-days-of-the-locust.html?pagewanted=all