While I wouldn’t underestimate the might of the superpower, or that a large war wouldn’t have the resultant that WWII did on the economy (many economists believe it not FDR rekindled the economy) I myself vacillate between two different points of view. Regardless both points of view lead to the same outcome:
Larry et al were brought in to devalue, re-denominate and reissue the dollar
Larry et al are riding a beast they don't know or understand and the resultant mess will be a devalued, re-denominated and then reissued dollar
The one thing I am certain of is that this house of cards is being propped up a little longer by the stimulus, by all rights it should have collapsed in the fall of 2008.
I myself am hesitant to be underneath this mess, either way it will come down. How long? I myself don’t know or profess to know, but many things are on the "radar" screen I’m viewing:
Wave 2, Option Arms, Alt - A's: A 1.5 trillion dollar mess whose trough has just hit shore with the crest rolling in in 2010. If I'm recalling correctly, 1.5 trillion is the equivalent amount of the sub prime catalyst which sparked the initial fall 2008 crisis. Wave 2 has the same weight as wave 1, the only difference is our economy is like a surfer who is still coughing up water and digging sand out of his mouth, nose and eyes (Arnie the body builder govoner who got into office thanks to Kennie Boy Lay). These waves have devistating effects (systemic risks), they can prop up the banks all they want but when home prices fall off the cliff and taxes aren't paid and sectors fail....well just think Cal-i-forn-ia.
Debt vs deficit: The debt can has become unkickable, the deficit is now beyond the scope of what lenders are willing to anti up and the fed, is for all accounts and purposes counterfeiting the difference of what it can sell vs what the govt needs to keep its lights on. I suspect China is "secretly" divesting it's 2 trillion dollar liability by buying commodities and paying for the commodities with treasuries or dollars. Just a hunch.
The economy is in shambles and is going to, what we called in the airlines "Essential Power". You have 26 million U3/U6ers. There is NO mincing statistics here, these by all accounts are depression-airy figures. People are going to essentials, food, toilet paper and if they are lucky transportation to and from work. This trend will strengthen. Like a plane without generators essential power dies when the batteries run out. The economy is not going to run without consumers, consumers need revenue, revenue comes from jobs. Economists and pundits calling for a short surge in the Dow have me baffled or will prove me crazy, but when I see Soros, Rogers keeping their toes out of the water I don't think I'm totally off the wall when I say that.
Green shoots:
An EV Car that has a range of 500-1,000 miles being invented tomorrow
Solar Energy that someone could install for 10k or less
Both would have to be manufactured here and both would create another bubble that might let them kick this can down the road for as long as another bubble/wave takes to ride out. See both of these on the very future horizon.
Heaven forbid we have another depression but if we do how would this one be different from the last one? I was a little asleep at the wheel compared to Chris Martenson, Peter Schiff, Jim Rogers & Gerald Celente.
These men saw things that I knew but I was still in denial about how different things could be.Since these men called it right ahead of time I have to believe these visionaries really understand more of what is transpiring than the main stream economist that the Obama crew is listening to.
I wanted to be very successful at what I do in my business so that was simple enough in my mind. I just found someone that had accomplished this with a proven track record & used this as my guide.
It doesn’t seem like anyone in the administration has been contacting the visionaries that predicted many of these events before they happened? If I really wanted to improve the economy it seems like a no brainer to me that these would be some of the first people on my list. This makes me wonder at times is this about helping the citizens, controlling them or they are just very inept at understanding what is real.
Chris Martenson, Peter Schiff, Jim Rogers & Gerald Celente from my perspective all seem to believe things are going to get much worse or change drastically from the past 20 years we have become accustom to. I have to believe they will be right over time as this plays out. They have all already proven they are way ahead of the game. This much is fact in my mind so I am preparing accordingly.
It occurred to me yesterday that – what with the state gov operating on IOUs now – California just took a big step towards become the world’s largest barter economy.
[quote=Davos]
Green shoots:
An EV Car that has a range of 500-1,000 miles being invented tomorrow
Solar Energy that someone could install for 10k or less
Both would have to be manufactured here and both would create another bubble that might let them kick this can down the road for as long as another bubble/wave takes to ride out. See both of these on the very future horizon.
[/quote]
Apart from the sheer wrongheadedness of the so-called Plan to Fix the Mess ("Hey gang – we could Re-Inflate The Bubble!!"), the other thing that makes me want to scream with frustration is that the centerpiece of any stimulus plan ought to be Solar On Every Roof. Egad, it’s so simple and would address so many issues (putting people to work [helping people stay in their houses and thereby shrinking the wave of mortgage defaults], stimulating domestic product [thereby creating tax revenue for the cash-starved state or local govs], reducing dependence on fossil fuels [even if just a bit], and driving tech innovation [such that hey, maybe we’d create something so great we could…export it?!!])…
the other thing that makes me want to scream with frustration is that the centerpiece of any stimulus plan ought to be Solar On Every Roof. Egad, it's so simple and would address so many issues (putting people to work [helping people stay in their houses and thereby shrinking the wave of mortgage defaults], stimulating domestic product [thereby creating tax revenue for the cash-starved state or local govs], reducing dependence on fossil fuels [even if just a bit], and driving tech innovation [such that hey, maybe we'd create something so great we could...*export* it?!!])...
Maybe I’m just too results-oriented?
+++1 and why I wrote:
Larry et al were brought in to devalue, re-denominate and reissue the dollar
Larry et al are riding a beast they don't know or understand and the resultant mess will be a devalued, re-denominated and then reissued dollar
Either these people can't find their rear end with both hands, a map and the lights on - or they have something else in mind. Regardless, turbulence is going to be an understatement. I recall listening to NPR years ago about New Orleans being below sea level and one category whatever hurricane would spell lights out. Then I watched Katrina play out.
Not optimistically, not pessimistically, just realistically speaking: I sincerely expect this to be Katrina on a GLOBAL scale.
I wanted to bring this conversation back around to the topic of the Declaration of Independence and the resulting revolution: This is a day late; We’ve been traveling.
Every year, Glenn Beck reads the famous poem, "Paul Revere’s Ride" By Longfellow. Glenn then goes on to present a little history about the ride, including the other "conspirators" involved, and their roles. There is one thing that Glenn goes on to say, that has stuck with me, and really made an impression on me.
When Revere and the other riders came through, ordinary men woke out of their slumber, grabbed their weapons, and kissed their wives and children goodbye, some for the last time. They believed in what they stood for so much, that they were literally willing to "risk it all" -
Since hearing that, I have often questioned - "What about me? What do I believe in? Do I believe in "that" enough that I would be willing to kiss my wife and children goodbye, knowing I might pay the ultimate price?"
(Please note: I’m not advocating any violence of any kind, I’m merely drawing an analogy between the Revolutionaries and myself.)
The truth is: Maybe not. I might not have what it takes. Maintaining the status quo, even though I’m not thrilled with current state of affairs, it’s safer for me and my family to continue to trudge along, rather than risk bucking the system. When I think about the sacrifices the "ordinary" men made all those years ago, I’m awed and I’m humbled. Most of America today takes that for granted. If given any thought at all, it’s probably just a cursory lesson in school, and then promptly forgotten after the test is taken.
"What about me? What do I believe in? Do I believe in "that" enough that I would be willing to kiss my wife and children goodbye, knowing I might pay the ultimate price?"
txfloods interesting post. I guess if one loses everything & has little hope his children will have much of a future the answer would come rather quickly.
If you have had the good fortune to study history, it becomes apparent that the organization of society has had but one main objective, that is, to find methods to take the labor-value of the many and make it your own. And although the American Experiment might seem somewhat romantic to us, it is necessary to keep in mind that our ancestors were not the most gentle of souls.
Whatever the form, trying to get "something for nothing," assumes, it is always the same scam. In my mind, it is the greatest cancer that eats away at humanity. Thinking that you can actually have something for nothing, justified in hundreds, perhaps thousands of wars, all kinds of -isms and ideologies, has rendered humanity a pathetic mess, witness our own age where men and woman steal from us in broad daylight, and believe it to be their right.
Although America might be better than some, the concept of "country" is not your friend, but instead, one of your masters. The Forth of July is perhaps the ultimate American paradox, the celebration of freedom from one tyranny while embracing the next, and the next…