Harry Dent: Stocks Will Fall 70-90% Within 3 Years

Chris what a thoroughly disappointing interview, both your guest and the way you interacted with him. I thought you and your site stood for something and you had the courage to call someone out on their disillusions.
I have no issue with letting someone spew stupidities (Dent) but I expect you to call him on those same stupidities.
Dent talks about the need for growth to end our dept problems yet you gave a weekly YouTube world summary where you say growth is bad, it provides no benefit any longer and you personally don’t need or want it?
The fact that you did not push back on him really is disappointing and seems like you and this site are talking out of both sides of your mouth.

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This person, Harry Dent, first called for the crash scenario that he describes here to begin in “2009 to 2012”. When it didn’t, his next book called for the crash between “2012 to 2015”. Whoops. Now it’s this year, or up to 2019. When you go to his website, you are inundated with offers to subscribe to his service (so you can know when it’s time to bail), buy his papers, and buy his book. This man gives the impression of being one of a great number of people making their living by selling subscription services, either as trading tips, or stock trading methods and gimmicks, or in his case, how to duck when the sky falls. Which it will any minute, of course. I’m disappointed in Peak Prosperity for giving him a platform like this. The arguments are well reasoned and convincing, but they always are, and it didn’t happen in 2009, or 10, or 11, or 12, or 13 or 14 or 15 or 16. (But now …) Really Mr. Martenson, this doesn’t seem up to your usual standard of guests.

I registered just to give your comment the thumbs up.

To those critical of Harry Dent appearing on the podcast:
Your opinion of Dent’s positions is, of course, yours to hold. We’re not making any attempt to change it. And personally, we may share it (I won’t speak for Chris, but I certainly don’t ascribe to everything Dent claims in this interview).
But we extended the invitation for Harry to come on the program due to listener demand. Believe it or not, we’ve received more unsolicited requests from the PP audience over the past year to interview him than nearly anyone else.
Given Dent’s somewhat polarizing nature, I thought for a while about whether or not to invite him, but then decided to go ahead for the following reasons:
We listen to and respect the PP community. If folks express a clear preference, we do our best to deliver on it.
Many times on this site, listeners have requested that we book guests who don’t share our exact views, to avoid the “echo chamber” effect. Dent certainly fits that mold in certain areas (such as his prediction for $400 gold or his belief that “growth” is the answer).
We trust that our listeners have the maturity to hear different perspectives and accept or reject the wheat and chaff within
One commenter asked why Chris didn’t push Dent harder on growth. I’ll leave it to Chris to clarify his decision, but I want to make it clear that our job as interviewers is not to force our guests into our way of thinking. As the guy responsible for finding and booking our guests, I’d have a heck of a lot less success landing the folks we want if PP developed a reputation for bullying them.
Instead, our job is to surface perspective which enhances or challenges (ideally, we try to do both) our collective view of the future ahead.
And if there’s a thinker you particularly want to hear on this podcast, just email us. I’m always on the lookout for good future guests.

Lets see if I have it straight. First of all, from first principles, “The customer is always right.” So given this, your task is as follows:
make sure that PP isn’t just an echo chamber - invite guests who have points of view that sometimes diverge from the “PP mainstream thinking”
somehow convince guests to come here and participate
respond to member requests to bring specific guests here to interview
and whatever you do, don’t let the guests get away with saying things that diverge from the PP mainstream thinking.
I believe the last item, #4, happens in the discussion section following the interview. In other words, that’s the job of the membership. No guest wants to be savaged in real time in an interview. However if they are subsequently savaged in the comment section by an unruly member-mob, there’s not much that the friendly staff at PP can really do about it, now is there? Plus - how often do the guests really look at the comment section? Who has the time?
Everyone wins.

Gosh, thank you. :heart:

I was happy that Chris interviewed Dent, he did have some interesting things to contribute to our understanding of how the macro economy functions, even if we believe he is leaving major factors out of his analysis. I also see his perceptions as somewhat limited, but in the context of the reality that he lives in, he seems sincere and intelligent. The fact he is trying to make a living selling his services, don’t see how we can hold that up as a fault.
It is important for the interviewer to bring out the what the guest has to offer as fully as possible, and Chris did a good job of that. However it is also possible to bring up issues without “savaging” your guests. Like, “In your macro economic analysis, how do figure in environmental degradation and resource depletion in your model, do you think liquid fuel depletion will be an issue?” That’s not really savaging a guest or forcing them to the PP point of view. But I will not second guess Chris. Many times when talking with people, you can get an immediate sense of there limitations, and tailor your interaction with them accordingly.
That is how I function here on planet earth, a very strange community of beings indeed we are, with what I think of as generally a very distorted view of reality. There is only one religious heresy, that is forcing someone to pray. If things are not given with an open heart, they have no value. The goal of the universe is the individuation of consciousness after all. To that end free will is one of the highest goals, to achieve that end, all manner of horrors are permitted by the human race. So when we engage in respectful discourse, we are doing the highest good. To ground ourselves, we must broaden our perspective as wide as possible, not get caught in the fear of the moment. Fear is after all what disconnects us form reality.

a place, meeting, or medium where ideas and views on a particular issue can be exchanged.
"it will be a forum for consumers to exchange their views on medical research"
a court or tribunal.
Where else can one find a more varied and inclusive opportunity to practice this. Hats off to PP.

Perhaps Harry should consider The Thing. This buying opportunity comes with a cost.

robertenrico wrote:
Charles Nenner is a proponent of sunspot cycles ... I didn't know Dent was but I'm not a follower of Dent ... especially after this interview it reinforces my conviction to ignore him ... Dent does not believe that gold is money, he thinks it is only a commodity ... and declaring Trump is certifiably crazy and uncontrollably impulsive confirms to me that Dent is brainwashed by The Matrix of Main Stream Media ... I question his reasoning now ...there are other better economists/cyclists to follow ... Chris being one ... Michael Pento ... Dr Paul Craig Roberts ... David Stockman ... Nenner ...

Charly Nenner. In 2009 on dutch radio: gold will crash in februari 2010.

Adam, you’re right, and I’m sorry I implied a criticism of you for having Harry Dent on the podcast. I think for me it was a bit personal, I’ve fallen for this kind of message before, done what the person said, and of course whatever was predicted didn’t happen and I lost money. What can I say, I’m gullible, and susceptible to a good story. When I saw the list of Harry Dent’s book titles on Amazon, I felt hoodwinked again for believing him. He still could be right, but a big part of his message is in the timing prediction, and he was wrong on that every time before. Anyway, I wanted to say that I think the podcasts are brilliantly done, and they always expand my view of the world. I’m grateful to have them, thank you.

I share your experience, and the feeling of being hoodwinked - and the losing of money too. I was tricked by some goldbugs, who told me the COMEX would default within the month, that gold was going right to $5000, and so on.
As we know, COMEX has yet to default, and gold is well below $5000.
It may all happen someday. Who can say. But if someone provides a timeframe for their predictions, and the prediction does not come to pass within that timeframe, then that person is wrong, and people who follow his prediction will lose money - and feel hoodwinked.

Aloha! The ground most of us walk on will be around even if the markets crash 100% despite Al Gore! The sun will set in the west and rise in the east. Government is a collection of flawed humans trying to convince the rest of flawed humanity who are registered voters that they aren’t flawed! To do that politics will use every trick in the book to levitate and leverage their way into a kakocracy of power. Central banks have that parasitical symbiosis that corruption loves. Central banks are “independent” as we are told, but I liken that to Frankenstein. They do have a master and even if Don Corleone dies again there is another one to take his place. No shortage of corruption has ever blessed mankind and wherever the most cash resides is where the most corruption resides as well. Welcome to “Real Estate Values In Washington DC 101”!
I found it interesting that Dent compares a lot of modern day life to the Depression Era, the 1929 Crash. But he looks at only the numbers, the ups and downs. In reality there is no comparison especially when it comes to mentality. In my opinion only Third World citizens have an understanding of the Great Depression Era because they live it every day. Americans are the least adept at suffering. Hence the loss of 80% of their stored value would send shock waves throughout society.

Government would suffer huge losses to its tax base, which we are told that because government has a taxing authority that its debt is the safest AAA! If credit ratings mean anything any more and they shouldn’t because the last crash was brought on by corrupt credit ratings, so buyer beware of those luscious government bonds. Besides the largest holders of those bonds even a few Chinese may need to sell them to cover losses to stay in power and how do we know the largest holder … “us” … will not suffer domino effects and sell as well? Nobody knows what is hypothecated and re-hypothecated and what isn’t. In 2008 the smartest guys in the room assumed that AIG could cover derivative losses. What could go wrong?
One interesting thought. Back in the 1929 crash 66% of American families had a farm in the family. A safe haven safety net to fall back on in hard times. The markets crash, massive unemployment and welfare but in 1929 if you had a farm you knew you would have food and water and shelter. Now if Dent is right only 3% of Americans have a farm in 2017. We are officially “Wards of the State”!! If you saw Katrina then you get an idea of what that looks like. Even if you had a car during Katrina it did not help you much unless you were the first to leave NOLA and had a 200 gallon gas tank! Then what??
My hint here is how safe is government debt? Obama added another $9TRIL while he pretended to be President. Either Trump is Nero or he is Caesar! So when you peel back the global asset onion what isn’t leveraged?

Adam, I had no idea when I criticized this presenter earlier that it was so difficult to find people to interview for the program. Naturally, you can’t be expected to vet people or correct the misstatements of your guests, when you are in this position. I forwarded a link to this article to a couple of people, before I did any research on Harry Dent. LOL - my friends had such a laugh at my expense! They are still mocking me over it. Heres the thing, Adam, - I totally do not blame you. It is entirely my own fault - I trusted you. Mea culpa.

I’m guilty as charged for requesting Dent on here, I’ve been nagging Chris & Adam on my previous posts.
I was pleasantly surprised and impressed that given his stance on Gold, Chris & Adam decided to reach out to him, I respect them more for doing so.
I think much like Science, its important and necessary that the belief system & theories we subscribe to at PP are verified with data and challenged by opposing views.
Even Chris (who I hold in high esteem) freely admits he cant predict every future twist and turn in this story and is amazed that central bankers have kept this game going for so long, how much longer, this year? 2020, 2025???
And what happens then? Debt Jubilee? Anarchy? Some parts of what Harry Dent predicts maybe right, yes he’s out to sell books and make a profit, but his reporting on demographic trends is an eye opener
I agree with a former poster, the rogue wave of environmental collapse will occur before society panics and wakes up, its just a question of when and how horrendously that impacts society.

I read two of Harry’s books and I think he is a complete clown. Read his sunspot cycle theory:
He claims that the activity of the sun predicts recessions. For a guy who has devoted his life to studying the stock market, he should have learnt by now the concept of data mining. If you mine a large enough set of data, you’re bound to find some strong correlations (like the sunspot cycle and US recessions), but most of these correlations will be just random noise. And that’s what happened. He doesn’t even investigate if the sunspot cycle caused recessions in every other country in the world. (You would think that other countries reside in the same spot on the solar system, and therefore would provide an easy test for the hypothesis.) I hope Nassim Taleb includes Harry Dent in his repertoire of clowns profiled in his magnificent Fooled by Randomness (where I learnt about data mining).