I mean it lives in that region as undercurrent and can be activated for political means and campaigns (red vs blue in US fashion)… I guess CIA could leverage this to foster various ISIS and subsequent rebel groups from this sentiment in culture. Some ISIS named factions are still alive (US gov tracks them, which are official terrorist, which are not). Bunch of others exist too. Iran has used these for proxy wars/attacks. But anyone could use them.
Similar as Trump used “chyna bad” in first term. It didnt result in much more than sanctions then. But as Iran deal seems to be leaning for Iran, this still remains factor. Israel seems to like weak states around it, as “buffer states” to play around in. But Iran has used Iraq this way to garner support via these groups. Albeit you are correct in golden age of AI, no need to do anything reality based as anything can be fabricated and then targeted to unstabile group to take it in, facebook did this profiling already for some $$$ as other platforms can do aswell.
Where are those ships carrying that oil to asia?
Many were reported by Prof Mirandi, Johnson, et al to hug Pakistan’s coast line to India & points beyond before and even during the blockade. “What’s Happening With Shipping” even had a few reports like that. But there is the Pakistani border and trucking roads & railroads. Much less oil but since the closure, Iran’s been making the big bucks, well big yuan, selling oil way above their sanction price (again, according to Mirandi). Plus the Caspian Sea trade with Russia is safe and probably going like gang busters. The billion dollar tracking radars, blown up on the US bases (sshhh, don’t tell anybody) can’t see the trade in real time like they used to. Plus, the blockade was a joke. We do not have the ships to enforce a proper blockade, period. Onesie, twosie, sure. Consider the blockade of Cuba in the sixties, miniscule to the size of our Iran blockade, required 180 ships to be effective. We ain’t got but a teeny fraction of that in the Arabian Sea, a much YUGER area and crap tons more tankers.
I did misunderstand. You caught the Tater.
And I was right there with you until “Humbled Trump” (oxymoron?) signed the MOU in Versaille for Pete’s sake; Vance butt slammed Israel; Trump said yes to a nuke program and missiles (and all of Iran’s other demands); and tacitly admitted to the 41 insider trading scams. Hope springs eternal but I might be falling for another atomic sit up. I do hope you’re wrong but we’ll see.
Yep. I don’t think it’s all that hard to understand that Iran has 47 years of direct experience with US duplicity and has recently watched the US and EU repeatedly play games over their control or lack of control regarding Ukraine. Plus, of course, everybody (including us) knows that neither Ukraine nor Israel can do the perfidious things they do without the active permission and enablement of the US. The “naughty, naughty Zelensky” and “naughty, misbehaving Netanyahu” charades are as worn out as old Punch and Judy skits.
Iran is calling it. Simple as that. Unlike Russia to this day, Iran is not going to tolerate good cop/bad cop games. It’s a position they’ve demonstrated by striking back harder every time they’ve been struck, and they’re broadcasting as loudly as they can that this agreement doesn’t abrogate their baseline attitude. They’re telling “agreement incapable” US - who also, remember, hit Iranian delegations twice while their guard was down because negotiations were apparently proceeding well - that they are watching and their finger is on the trigger, so don’t F around. Iran won’t play.
That goes for using Israel as a loose cannon. Iran’s not in cahoots with Israel, it is making clear the entire US nexus must abide by the agreement, because Iran is not of a mind to play along.
Annnnnnd, it’s over
Valid points, all. Can’t blame Iran for doing so whether you like them or not. And if you’re right it’s a checkmate. Khargg attack reality and cancellation might have been a big clue making Trump fall down, roll over, and “bravely” shit his pants in Versaille. Even Kushner, Witkoff, and puppy dog Pete couldn’t make the Khargg reality smell good. But that’s just one of my guesses.
I didn’t fall all the way for the MOU. I was definitely fooled by the “humbled” Trump Versaille thing but kept suspicions low. Who just sold the low oil future buys this week? I wonder…
Just to be precise.. today’s talks are canceled. Nothing about the “Moo” being canceled or over
So what can Trump really do about Israhell now?
- Claim he called Netanyahu and read him the riot act (not really), or really call him and read him the riot act. Won’t work except on Fox News viewers. Netanyahu and other Zionist leaders have already publicly and defiantly said they’re staying in Lebanon and will fight as much as they want. Apparently Trump did nothing in response.
- Threaten to begin withdrawing military assets from within the borders of Israhell, or actually start doing it. Start with the aerial refueling tankers and the Patriot missile batteries. Give Iran the space to attack Israhell without hitting us. I don’t think Trump has the courage for that but even if he did would the military follow those orders? I distinctly remember during Trump’s first reign he publicly announced he was withdrawing all our troops from within Syria. The next day a US General publicly stated, “Not really, not yet.” I don’t know what happened behind the scenes but we withdrew nothing and that General didn’t die from a mysterious fall from a 7th floor hotel balcony. I’d be willing to bet Israhell owns at least 50% of our flag officers in addition to 95% of our Federal politicians.
- And since Israhell owns 95% of our politicians they can override any Trump veto of any aid package. IF he dared to veto such a thing, which I doubt.
- If Trump was particularly devious and bloodthirsty he could commit a false flag attack on our own troops and assets inside Israhell and make it look like Zionists did it. Then he could use that as a reason to leave Israhell and withdraw support. Fox News viewers would be shocked by the Zionist betrayal but they’d agree we have to leave them to their own devices.
- Trump could order Ambassador Cuckaby home and replace him with an actual American citizen (or leave the position vacant).
- Trump could initiate a unanimous Security Council resolution condemning Israhell and demanding they leave Lebanon and quit shooting anything that moves.
I don’t see Trump doing any of that, based on his track record. I think he’s capable of talking big and trying some fence sitting. I think Col. McGregor could be right: Iran will attack Israhell; Trump will weakly aid Israhell for a short time; then Trump will try to back out again while blaming Netanyahu.
If I was Iran I’d just keep the Hairpin of Hormuz closed and publicly demand Trump reign in his lapdog, or else the devastating economic collapse he himself spoke of would soon arrive and be hung around his neck for all of human history. Let world opinion and economics do all the heavy lifting without having to fire any missiles.
And that’s why we keep preparing in both hopeful and despairing times.
Maybe but #1 demand was about Israel and Lebanon. And Iran consistently said, no Lebanon withdrawal and the whole thing is cancelled so there’s that. Israel can do zero military ops without our donuts. Zero. Iran’s placing the onus on the US to stop all aid to Israel. Congress has to do that, Iran knows it, and so here’s their first shot across the bow. I think it’s reasonable to assume if the talks are cancelled by Iran because Israel keeps on doing their Greater Israel thing on our dime, the the MOU is pretty much cancelled. However, it would be nice if there were some actual good guys in the pizza. There aren’t any in Iran, USA, or Israel that I can see. At least none that have any sway, just ask Joe Kent and Tulsi.
Well, Israel and Iran are nothing if not consistent.
(Source)
IRAN HAS CLOSED THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AGAIN AFTER ISRAEL BOMBED LEBANON.
The IRGC Navy warns that NO vessel should attempt to cross.
Iran says the Strait will remain CLOSED until Israel withdraws from Lebanon, the naval blockade is fully lifted, and U.S. forces leave the Persian Gulf and the region.
The IRGC is broadcasting a warning on maritime frequencies:
“The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until these conditions are met.”
“Any vessel that defies this directive will be TARGETED.”
The move comes after Israeli strikes on Southern Lebanon and Israel’s refusal to withdraw from Lebanese territory.
Grok confirms the accuracy of this post.
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Iran has declared the Strait of Hormuz closed again today. Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-affiliated sources and state media announced via maritime radio that the strait is closed to shipping, with warnings that vessels attempting to pass could be targeted. This follows the US lifting its naval blockade yesterday (June 18) after a preliminary US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed around June 17.
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Link to Israel’s actions in Lebanon: Iran is explicitly tying the closure (or re-closure) to Israel’s ongoing military operations/strikes in Lebanon, which have continued despite the US-Iran deal.
Remember that the “Israeli” power to force Trumps continue supply of armament and the US military is not just coming from a foreign nation state. It is coming from “some very wealthy Jews” within the United States and global Zionist community.
These “some Jews” do not include many American Jews nor ALL of the Israeli Jews. But it seems that there are enough.
This whole thing reeks of psyop to me. My bullshit detector is firing all its alarms. The last few times there have been actual “good faith” negotiations, the people doing the negotiating got blown up. I think there’s something brewing behind the scenes that’s ugly, but I don’t know what it is yet.
Israel will do anything to keep their war going because it’s existential for them now. They’ve passed the point of no return and can’t go back. There’s only one out I see for them, and it’s not even guaranteed to work. Ehud Barak recently loudly condemned Netanyahu for his role in prolonging the war in Lebanon to prevent his own trial, so maybe Israel will throw Bibi under the bus and bide their time some. But I doubt that.
I fully expect this deal to get blown up. By seeming to capitulate to Iran’s demands, Trump’s admin is making us look reasonable before something awful like a false flag. These are extremely dangerous times and the fog of war is the thickest I’ve ever seen.
Reposting from Jan’s post but bigger.
The Minister of National Security reveals his position and approach to Lebanon.
Always play the victim (the tears of Israeli mothers) and always go on the offensive with massive overwhelming force (kill them all and all of their children–the tears of Lebanese mothers).
I really can’t wait to see Ben Gvir kick the bucket in some ignominious fashion