Here’s Why Iran Got Everything It Asked For

Good guys in pizza? DC pizza parlours must have hardworking staff now.

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“In the pizza” is an old SNL bit by Father Guido Sarducci character, called “find-a the Pope-a in-a the pizza.” I’ve plagiarised that for decades because it applies to so many other things. The bit was hilarious but also brilliant.

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Never let a wildly out of context biblical reference go to waste, especially if you fool American Christians into supporting genocide for Jesus’ return.

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Needs no intro:

https://x.com/waltermasterson/status/2068120288387084724/video/1?s=46

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What to put on that bingo card square. Such a conundrum.

Oh look! Here’s one:

https://x.com/ococreport/status/2068007611283198191?s=46

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What else is Russia supposed to do? Color me “Putin Lover” but the direct attacks on Moscow from NATO using Ukraine as a proxy only fools the EU elite and our retired generals.

These “leaders” are itching to force a nuke exchange while pushing Russia’s existential press-to-test buttons (and I don’t agree with all Russia’s reasons but hell at least listen to why they feel that way via the regions history).

The closed SOH is bad enough but damn, the EU has to one-up stupidity with this? Poke the bear and you’re bound to lose:

https://x.com/adrianovalui/status/2068335172605317350?s=46
https://x.com/adrianovalui/status/2068337039997644977?s=46

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I disagree with you. Trump is not being led by Israel. Trump is an alpha in the room. Trump is trump, no one can control him. Israel has to do whatever it takes to survive because they are surrounded with enemies. Thank God that many of the gulf countries signed a peace agreement with Israel. They learned from the WWII and I’m glad they did learn from it otherwise there will be no Jews left. I don’t know why some people hate Jews. As a person from Asia and in a different religion I found no false of them defending for their existent. Guess what? I would do the same at all cost!
Though, I have been a member for 6 years and I’ve never seen so many Jews hating people in here. Just remember, Jews didn’t yell “Death to America” but Iranian and their proxy did. I love America, I will never on the side of people threating America period.

I appreciate your comment and I think Israel has every right to defend itself. I also strongly believe that disagreeing with the Israeli government, its prime minister, their actions, and US supporting their actions is NOT hating the Jews. Just like disagreeing with some Islamic government actions, disagreeing with US support for those is not hating Muslims.

If you’re going to make an accusation of people on PP hating Jews at least provide some specific comments to which you refer. Sweeping accusations don’t allow for honest discussions and respectful disagreement.

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Normally one would attribute this to a drunk tweet but Trump doesn’t drink. Just totally unhinged. What an embarrassment.

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There’s actually a theory on escalation dominance in “On Escalation” (by Herman Kahn - the model for Dr Strangelove) which says this is a legit strategy. If you look really crazy and drunk, the other side might be deterred - who knows what a really crazy guy will do. Unless they too are crazy in which case it doesn’t work - and likely ends up with bad outcomes.

“Game of Chicken.”

I really do think we’re here. And maybe his “neocon insiders” have briefed Trump on “how to look really crazy” to “win the deal.”

https://tnsr.org/2023/06/escalation-management-in-ukraine-learning-by-doing-in-response-to-the-threat-that-leaves-something-to-chance/

Herman Kahn, writing on escalation at almost the same time as Schelling, provides a vivid description of the dynamics of commitment and the challenges of manipulating uncertainty in a deadly game of chicken between two cars at opposite ends of a single lane road:

The “skillful” player may get into the car quite drunk, throwing whiskey bottles out the window to make it clear to everybody just how drunk he is. He wears very dark glasses so that it is obvious that he cannot see much, if anything. As soon as the car reaches high speed, he takes the steering wheel and throws it out the window. If his opponent is watching, he has won. If his opponent is not watching, he has a problem; likewise, if both players try this strategy.

Back when I was a teenager I studied this in school. For some reason the subject really got my attention, as did the movie Dr Strangelove. “Mein Fuhrer, I can walk!”

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What do you make of the signature: “NOT DJT”?
Barron? U ok lil bro? Wanted to wish dad a happy father’s day and learned that the movie was right and your mom’s the affectionate one?

Trump’s truth socials make me think mass formation psychosis and a vaxxed narcissist had a kid. I’d think a guy who keeps shooting himself in the foot would realize he’s fresh out of feet and at that point, stop shooting.

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There was a lot written about nuclear strategy back in the day. A couple things I remember. Q: What really deters the Soviets? A: The ability to rapidly take out their command bunkers. The leaders really don’t want to die, so if you can put them (and mostly just them) at risk during a nuclear war, they’ll think twice. If we think about “the bunkers” built for the Oligarchs right now…now why would they be doing that? They really don’t want to die.

This is exactly the strategy used against Iran. Curiously, it didn’t work.

Likewise, acting crazy (“game of chicken”) can also have a deterrent effect. If you don’t know how far Mr Crazy will go, maybe its best to be careful. This really was laid out by Herman Kahn. I read it way back when, but I never forgot because the picture was just so compelling.

That’s exactly the strategy being used against Iran by The Donald.

I strongly suspect he’s been briefed on this approach (coming from the RAND corporation) maybe about nuclear war in general, and is now applying it to Iran specifically.

Remaining issue: what did Herman Kahn say about false flags used by other nations to influence the course of “On Escalation” pathway? I don’t recall, but that’s likely a key issue here today. If a third-actor generated “pearl harbor” event (with a nuclear weapon) gets used…would our response be to flatten the alleged attacker with a massive nuclear strike?

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Biggest difference to Iran vs cold war is soviets and US never directly fighted. Now deterrence works much less when bombing runs have already happened. It is in real life too… scaring of something, then it happens and scaring tactics are very small effect anymore (unless that thing killed you or something).
In Mike Tyson’s words, you have plan, then you get punched in nose. On both sides.

My point isn’t making a claim about “what works” - I’m trying to answer the question: what motivates Trump to take the actions he is taking. Why the crazy tweets? Why the decapitation strikes? My claim is, it goes back to nuclear war doctrine, and Trump’s thinking (and training) on this issue is probably limited - but it is explainable on that basis.

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Super scary, Tahdig is a yellow desert in a cake like form…yellow cake and enrichment, Trump is threatening to hit them with nukes.

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Do you think Kruschev slamming his shoe on the podium at the UN is another example of acting nuts to intimidate like Trump vomits on truth social? Same school of thought with different teachers?

Kahn was the Tonkin Gulf escalation ladder guy, wasn’t he? Tonkin was the false flag to uber escalate SE Asia by Johnson?

Did you read Nuclear War by Annie Jacobsen? I wonder about deterrence/doctrine and the trillionth of a second of the explosion cycle that renders it moot. I’m starting to wonder vis-a-vis EU v Russia if all deterrence is going hy the wayside. Maybe Trump’s koo-koo nuts tweets are the last one of the nuclear doctrine that works for a short while.

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That’s a 5D type strategy. My counterpoint is that he’s had one too many boosters and he’s cognitively impaired. I don’t see him being smart enough to pull off the crazy game of chicken.

Your analysis makes sense but I don’t think it fits the individual. “Not DJT” what does that even mean?

There’s the question about him having a type of dementia, I think it’s called frontal lobe. Makes sense since he is 80 and Lord knows what gets spiked in his morning orange juice.

Just like there’s a minimum age for the Presidency, the last 2 in office makes a great case for a maximum age limit.

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I’m not sold on the idea that he comes up with and writes his own tweets the majority of the time.

To me it would be some staffers role to send them out at certain times, based on outcomes of meetings/sitreps etc after theyve been filtered and tweeked for certain effects inline with his intent.

I’m fully tilted to the side that his tweets are a vector of some ‘strategy’ (I’m not saying its a good one) in the disinformation/information warfare going on. Ie it, because I’m not in on the game, I dont see those tweets as being meaninful to me.. lobbiests/market makers on the other hand I bet are required to constantly try keep up/pivot on them, to what end I have no idea.

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