How Will The Coronavirus Impact The Markets?

The patient in Melbourne arrived on the 19th of January. Three patients that arrived in Sydney arrived around the same time, however one patient in Sydney arrived on the 6th of January, regarding this person:

  1. They had a very long incubation period at which point they have had 18 days to spread it
  2. Someone else who didn’t have it bad enough to present to a doctor in Australia gave it to them.
    If we assume a start date of the 6th of January, and a 7 day incubation period and an r0 of 2.4 then we have 14 people with the virus but only 5 confirmed cases, this suggests we have about 9 people wandering around transmitting the virus, and over the next week that should increase. Without isolation and containment the virus is functionally uncontrolled in Australia, just as john has illustrated it’s functionally uncontrolled in the US.
     

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/man-behind-global-coronavirus-pandemic

john316jr
I am sorry for your situation. What you have described is not in keeping with the current CDC guidelines for healthcare professionals released today:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/hcp/clinical-criteria.html
It clearly states that people with fever, cough, difficulty breathing who have been to Wuhan in the last 14 days or had contact with people from Wuhan need evaluation. This website has links for both state and local departments of health. If you haven't called both you or someone close to you can still call. I hope you both recover soon.

My brother’s large multinational financial institution just instituted a two-week work-from-home policy for any employees returning from China. People in the United States are starting to pay attention.

Charles has an awesome essay about the difficulty of “getting it” when your (Titanic) boat has taken a fatal hit, but things still look kind of normal at the top deck and you firmly believe that it is unsinkable.

Coronavirus And The “Unsinkable” Titanic Analogy
Unthinkable doesn’t mean unsinkable.

As we all know, the “unsinkable” Titanic suffered a glancing collision with an iceberg on the night of April 14, 1912. A half-hour after the iceberg had opened six of the ship’s 16 watertight compartments, it was not at all apparent that the mighty vessel had been fatally wounded, as there was no evidence of damage topside. Indeed, some eyewitnesses reported that passengers playfully scattered the ice left on the foredeck by the encounter.
But some rudimentary calculations soon revealed the truth to the officers: the ship would sink and there was no way to stop it. The ship was designed to survive four watertight compartments being compromised, and could likely stay afloat if five were opened to the sea, but not if six compartments were flooded. Water would inevitably spill over into adjacent compartments in a domino-like fashion until the ship sank.
We can sympathize with the disbelief of the officers, and with their contradictory duty to simultaneously reassure passengers and attempt to goad them into the lifeboats. Passengers were reluctant to heed the warning because it was at odds with their own perceptions. With the interior still warm and bright with lights, it seemed far more dangerous to clamber into an open lifeboat and drift off into the icy Atlantic than it did to stay onboard.
The evidence was undeniable, but humanity’s first response is denial, regardless of the evidence. The evidence that the coronavirus is contagious is undeniable, as is the evidence that carriers who have no symptoms can transmit the virus to others.
Just as the eventual sinking of Titanic could be extrapolated from the basic facts (six watertight compartments were flooding), so the eventual spread of the coronavirus can be extrapolated from these basic facts.
But the official global response is “these facts don’t matter,” and so hundreds of airline flights continue to leave cities swept by the disease. That once the virus spreads globally it will impact the global economy is easily extrapolated, but few want to consider the sinking of the unsinkable, so they don’t.
As a result, the first lifeboats left the doomed ship only partially full. Only when it became undeniable that the ship was doomed did people attempt to get on a lifeboat, but by then it was too late: the lifeboats had all been launched.
This may be an appropriate analogy to the U.S. stock market, which is widely considered “unsinkable” due to the Federal Reserve’s unlimited ability to create “liquidity” (cash) out of thin air.
The stock market just had a minor collision with the coronavirus, and few are heeding the warnings, preferring to heed the reassurances that thanks to the omnipotent Federal Reserve, the market is unsinkable, and the party in the First Class deck will continue indefinitely.
The lifeboats are already leaving, but few have escaped the doomed ship, i.e. sold all their equities.
When the crowd partying in First Class awakens to the inevitability of the stock market sinking, it will be too late to get on the lifeboat, i.e. sell out at the top.
A half-hour after the fatal collision, the reassurances are so comforting and credible: how could this great ship sink? Indeed, how could a stock market racing so confidently to Dow 30,000 sink to Dow 20,000 or even 10,000? It’s unthinkable.
Unthinkable doesn’t mean unsinkable.
Why Our Financial System Is Like the Titanic (March 15, 2016)
Here are some informative science-based links on the coronavirus, courtesy of longtime correspondent Cheryl A.:
Another Decade, Another Coronavirus
New coronavirus can cause infections with no symptoms and sicken otherwise healthy people, studies show
Map of Global Case of Wuhan Coronavirus
Coronavirus contagious even in incubation stage, China’s health authority says
Preliminary Risk Assessment of Coronavirus Spreading
Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020
Containing new coronavirus may not be feasible, experts say, as they warn of possible sustained global spread
How fast can biotech come up with a vaccine for the latest outbreak?

Well danm, I just started trading the markets given the obvious manipulation and was making great returns with Apple. At this rate I’d have a million bucks in half a year. Just my luck…
I had a call going into Monday’s plunge which I have now exited at a nice profit. And I bought the dip on Monday as well. I think I’ll stay out for a while to see how it all pans out.
Historically, bad news was good news for the market as this just signified that the plunge protection team would go in and buy it all up until risk-on sentiment returns. Clearly they are doing that now as well.
The question is, is this too much for them to handle. My opinion is that the spread of the disease will be stifled with draconian measures like we are seeing in China. And it will pass in several months. But that will cause huge economic problems, maybe too much for the Fed to print its way out of.

That Zerohedge article is reprehensibly slanderous. He even posted the guy’s picture, email and phone numbers. I hope whoever really wrote that -‘Tyler Durden’ is a pseudonym for any of dozens of posters - is arrested and sued within an inch of his life. We need MORE PhD’s working on this problem, not people worried about being globally tied to a pandemic as if they caused it. Zerohedge is the worse, it’s one step over 4Chan in adolescent BS.

Does oil price really need to go down? Can’t OPEC just curtail production?

Here’s a thought. What if the global elite have been waiting for a suitable explanation to serve up to the masses regarding the inevitable financial downturn. Now instead of having to go to war with Russia/Iran we can just blame the coronavirus. “Sorry about your pension. Gosh, who could have seen that pandemic coming? Wow, guess we’re all in this together now, better share the hardship.” They conceivably could pull off a financial collapse and restructuring on their terms and no-one would be the wiser. What do y’all think?

http://www.alt-market.com/index.php/articles/4081-how-viral-pandemic-benefits-the-globalist-agenda

Global pandemic, whether a natural event or deliberately engineered, actually serves the purposes of the globalist establishment in a number of ways. First and foremost, it is a superb distraction. The general public, overcome with fears of an invisible force of nature that can possibly kill them at any moment, will probably forget all about the much bigger threat to their life, liberty and future – the subsequent collapse of the massive 'Everything Bubble' and the globalist "solution" that a pandemic can trigger... ...

I have a hard time ignoring the strange “coincidence” of the high level biohazard labs in Wuhan in favor of the idea that the virus was launched by chance due to the odd diets of central Chinese people. Given the evidence it appears that the coronavirus was gestated in a lab, not in someone's bat and snake soup. In 2017, scientists outside of China warned that these labs were not secure and that a virus might escape one of the facilities.

I would use the term “escape” loosely, as there is a possibility that this event was created intentionally. The virus itself has certain hallmarks of being engineered (including its long dormant period without visible symptoms) and the current strain is probably derived from the one the Chinese stole a year ago from a lab in Winnipeg, Canada.

But it gets even weirder.

Only three months ago, John Hopkins, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the World Economic Forum (a hive of self-professed globalists) ran a "pandemic simulation" called "Event 201" specifically focused on Coronavirus. Not Ebola, or Swine Flu or even Avian Flu - but CORONAVIRUS. The simulation features the spread of coronavirus in South America, blamed on animal to human transmission (pigs). The conclusion of the exercise was that national governments were nowhere near ready, scoring 40 out of 100 on their preparedness scale. The simulation projected over 65 million deathsworldwide.

Event 201 played out almost exactly as it has been in China today. Some very disingenuous or perhaps rather stupid people have been arguing that this kind of thing is "normal", claiming that we are "lucky" that the elites have been running simulations in advance in order to "save us" from a coronavirus outbreak. I assert that Event 201 was not a simulation but a war-game to study the possible outcomes of an event the globalists already knew was coming. Set aside the fact that before almost every major crisis event and terrorist attack for the past few decades authorities were running simulations for that exact event right before it happened; does anyone really believe that Event 201 is pure coincidence?...

...The reason why globalists want a collapse is simple - They need crisis in order to manipulate the masses into accepting total centralization, a global monetary system and global governance. They are also rabid believers in eugenics and population reduction. At the very least, a global pandemic is a useful happenstance for them; but the timing of the coronavirus event and their highly accurate "simulation" only three months ago also suggests their potential involvement, as it comes right as the implosion of the Everything Bubble was accelerating.

Consider this: Even if a pandemic does not kill a large number of people, it still disrupts international travel, it disrupts exports and imports, it disrupts consumer behavior and retail sales, and it disrupts domestic trade. If it does kill a large number of people, and if the Chinese government's response is any indication, it could result in global martial law. With many economies including the US economy already in a precarious balancing act of historic debt vs. crashing demand and useless central bank repo market intervention, there is little chance that the system can withstand such a tsunami.

Make no mistake, the crash has already begun, whether the virus hits the US hard or not. The only question is, will this be the trigger event that accelerates the collapse process that is already in motion?

I took my time in publishing this article because I believed it was important to first watch the Chinese, CDC and WHO response to the virus. If they dealt with the situation quickly then there was a chance that it would have only minor influence on the financial system. They did not deal with the situation quickly or decisively. In fact, over 5 million people left the Hubei region of China before active quarantine and treatment procedures began. The situation has spiraled out of control in China and it is clear that the government is now lying through its teeth about the number of sick and dead.

I would not be surprised if we discover in the next two weeks that the death tally is in the thousands, and the sickness rate is actually in the hundreds of thousands. The fact that China has now quarantined over 50 million people in 16 cities suggests the danger is much higher than they have admitted. If this is the case, then at the very least, the Chinese economy is about to take a massive hit. If the virus doesn't spread, the economic damage will....

...With global supply lines frozen and travel eventually restricted, trade will stall. There is no way around this. This is not just about China, it is about all nations. And, ultimately, this is not even about the coronavirus, it is about the financial time bomb that the globalist establishment created. It is about our economic interdependency and the house of cards we have become. In the wake of calamity, the globalists will call for even MORE interdependency. They will claim tragedy struck because we were not "centralized enough"....

China just updated its latest totals of coronavirus infected/dead.
They confirm that the virus is indeed spreading at a geometric rate.
That type of growth is hard for many people to wrap their brains around – but it means for every time increment, it grows more than ALL the previous time periods combined. That’s why the potential infected population projections get into the millions so quickly.
We’ve been predicting that once the market finally wakes up to the reality that the coronavirus needs to be taken seriously and has a non-dismissable potential to be VERY bad, the long overdue sell-off will begin.
Well, this latest batch of data may have just been that wake-up call.
All the major indices are down in the aftermarket and volatility and gold are up. And that’s despite blow-out earnings announced by the major stock market darlings (Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, etc)
The ““markets”” have been so insane over-extended for so long, nothing – I mean nothing – could dent the exuberance. Until perhaps now.
This just has the feel of a drunk waking up after a bender and realizing, “Wow, things really got out of hand. I need to reel it in.”
I’ll be watching the aftermarket action late into the night.
And if somehow this isn’t the market’s breaking point, I’m confident we’ll hit it within a matter of days.
If indeed there are hundreds of thousands of infected by the end of next week (which the current geometric spread predicts), the market just can’t shrug that off. In fact, it will likely go into full freak-out mode.

I got 7678 confirmed 170 deceased…did you get different

Rahm’s Rule: “You never want a serious crisis to go to waste,” he said. Why? Because “it’s an opportunity to do things you could not do before.” (Source)
A pandemic would serve as a potent catalyst to usher in a cashless monetary system as a frightened populous would be adverse to transacting in “dirty” or potentially infectious, contaminated currency.
While I truly believe and bemoan the severity of the growing nCoV epidemic and its potentially devastating human, social and economic impacts, I also believe that TPTB are at-the-ready to exploit opportunities this crisis–which they well may have helped to create and/or perpetuate.
Case in point: “FEMA just DOUBLED a contract for 4* Billion Dollars in case of a Presidential Emergency Declaration. The contract was just let at the 1st of January and 15 days later something happened to make FEMA double the budget. The primary unplanned for situation that pops to mind during this time frame is the SARS-like outbreak coming from CHINA.” [*Sparky1 edit, actually $3.66B] (Source)
Excerpt from the federal announcement of the doubling of the award from $610M to $1.220B for each of three contractors:
“Professional consultants, engineers and non-professionals are required to complement the efforts of FEMA PA staff, and provide a surge capability when necessary…as authorized under the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act, 42 U.S.C. §5121-5206 (Stafford Act), FEMA provides supplemental Federal disaster grant assistance to applicants…so that communities can quickly respond to and recover from major disasters or emergencies declared by the President.”
“There are currently three (3) large vendors that provide the current PA-TAC IV services. Each vendor currently has an IDIQ contract based on geographical zone/area…The ceiling for each of the contracts will be increased from $610 million to $1.220 billion (an increase of $610 million each).”
https://beta.sam.gov/opp/844a15b48a8546b3affd9c0e146dde63/view?keywords=fema&sort=-modifiedDate&index=opp&is_active=true&page=1
Whether for nCoV, war, extreme weather disasters, etc., apparently insiders were already well-positioned to leverage and profit from the latest crisis de jour.

The only real way out is through. I wish you all luck!

The article, along with the previous one about the center of the epidemic being the same city where China has its only level 4 biohazard research facility, makes a very strong case that he is responsible for the epidemic. He ought to be named and held accountable. The mainstream media have excoriated people on far less evidence.
I agree that posting his phone number is over-the-top. All that will do is get trolls to call him and hassle him. Any journalist could have found his number easily enough. Ironically it will be harder now since he’s sure to disconnect that number.
It’s unlikely that the Chinese government will admit their culpability in the problem, nor that mainstream journalists will research the root cause. I’m glad somebody is.