[quote=Broadspectrum]This is Broadspectrum again. I get the impression that I am one of the few posters on this site that is pro peace…
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Broadspectrum
I think you may have more allies than you think.
Considering we have a budget deficit of $1.7 trillion, and about $800 billion of which is directly related to war in Iraq and Afghanistan, only a fool would say we should continue such disastrous and unnecessary spending… And considering how much we spend on foreign military bases throughout the world when a lot of those countries like Japan and Germany should really be paying us to be there…
I’ve mentioned before the War Is Making You Poor Act. Both Ron Paul and Dennis Kucinich signed up as co-sponsors. Too bad it went nowhere.
Poet
That’s sound advice right there.
Just having finished two “simple pump” installs, I will vouch for their simplicity and,to me, obvious simplicity and durability. There is nothing that can break that I can’t fix.
robie
With all due respect to Dr. Hussman, whom I admire, that is a crappy definition of a bubble. It defines momentum investing, Treasury bonds at negative real rates of return, and virtually the entire Nasdaq as “bubbles.” It’s far too broad and restrictive at the same time.
Broad because it covers everything ‘detatched from fundamentals’ (everything gets that way both high and low from time to time; thus, too broad) and too narrow because it focusses only on price and excludes psychology and particiaption rates. So, no, I reject the definition right from the get-go.
It’s a non-starter for me.
Once again, I repeat the mantra, “Check the archives”. Actually, I think the vast majority of the human race is pro-peace. I would speculate that it’s only the 6% of sociopaths that might be pro-war. I think, in order to have maximum impact, it’s imperative that the most ardent, self avowed, pro-peace advocates make their appeal directly to those who are the most active in promoting war rather than preaching to the choir that is presently living in peace and just wants to continuing being left in peace.
I fear that my dollar is going to continue losing buying power vs the things I need… therefore I am buying Silver and Gold. I am afraid for a very logical, well studied set of reasons. Jag’s backward looking chart of commodities and his aphorism about fear don’t change my mind. Jag’s chart is just another argument for an eventual deflation… an ongoing discussion topic. A backward looking chart does not help us deal with an endgame scenario, which I believe is coming.
[quote=Jim Hannah]I fear that my dollar is going to continue losing buying power vs the things I need… therefore I am buying Silver and Gold. I am afraid for a very logical, well studied set of reasons. Jag’s backward looking chart of commodities and his aphorism about fear don’t change my mind. Jag’s chart is just another argument for an eventual deflation… an ongoing discussion topic. A backward looking chart does not help us deal with an endgame scenario, which I believe is coming.
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Further, I would place more weight on a 200 year chart of prices if the measuring stick, money, was constant over that period. It is not.
For most of that 200 year history gold and silver were the money and, as I hopefully illustrated in the Crash Course chapter on inflation, all prior epsiodes of inflation were undone precisely because there was a constant measuring stick.
Now? Not so much.
All we have to go on is 40 years of constantly inflating history, dated to about, oh, say, approximately August 15th, 1971.
To me it is simply not credible to compare prices across those time spans because the money types were so completely different. What’s the difference between market behaviors under a hard money system and a fiat money system? Night and day. There are different rewards, different penalties, differnt enticements and different punishments.
Even more, we are now hitting some hard limits on several key commodities, something that has not ever been experienced globally before.
Sure, there will be a pullback in commodities someday, but not until the fiscal and monetary madness is brought under control. That won’t be this week. Maybe next week?
Poet, that is a great list. It seems the meek shall inherit the earth. I was a carpenter (non-union) for most of my adult life, and know firsthand that tradesmen have been considered, well…disadvantaged. But reading your list makes me realize that people who are accustomed to working with tangible things, whose job security traditionally lasts until the job is complete (and whom are frequently paid commensurate with what was accomplished), will be at an advantage in the new world (hands pre-calloused, attitude pre-humbled). The times are a changin’.
Pro: China's Hot Inflation Drives Gold to $2200 http://www.cnbc.com/id/42596474
Chatter on the Street Thursday had everything to do with just how high inflation fears could drive commodities especially after new data leaked onto the market.Although Beijing won’t release official inflation data until Thursday evening (New York time), the advance numbers were hot.
According to Hong Kong’s Phoenix TV, citing an unnamed source, China’s annual rate of inflation in March hit a 32-month high - it’s likely to be 5.3-5.4 percent.
And that has trader Brian Kelly focussed on gold
[GCCV1 1475.20 
2.80 (+0.19%) 
]
. He thinks it could go to $2200.
Here’s his thesis:
According to Kelly, when adjusted for inflation, the real rate of return for people in China with money in the bank after one year is negative. And if the numbers leaked are confirmed by Beijing, that trend grows more negative.
In other words, if you live in China and put savings in the bank for a year you lose money.
Kelly thinks that will drive investment demand for gold. “There’s a tremendous amount of investment demand for gold coming from China,” he says. But not only for things like gold ETFs or mutual funds. Kelly says in China “they also have gold savings accounts. Instead of saving in yuan you can save in gold.”
So where does that $2200 price target come from?
“That last time the real rates went negative was in 2007,” he says. "At the same time the spot price of gold ran 51% higher. If you take Thursday’s closing price and add 51% you get to $2220 and ounce.
Some bubble IMHO…time will tell.
Thanks for the links tanner.
Septimus, I was thinking of New Zealand too but I checked out their immigration procedures and it seemed a little onerous. I would probably have enough points though if I tried.
Actually, with the money we are making off silver right now I could quit my job and just go over there and try to stay long enough to get some kind of residency. Right now my job income is peanuts in comparison to our investment income, but it is security and who knows, maybe silver will reverse and go down.
Ive noticed lately that more and more government big boys are saying statements to the effect that the country is broke.
James Baker, who served as secretary of the treasury said,
The United States of America, if we didn’t have the dollar as the de facto reserve currency of the world we’d be greece.
I mean, we are broke, bankrupt, really bankrupt
http://www.subchat.com/otchat/read.asp?Id=763281
I heard Baker say this on CNN and I was in shock! Of course within 20 mins Baker was off the show and they put on some blowhard university professor claiming how he “thinks” things will continue to get better and how he “believes” that the deficit issue will be taken care of. Damage control for CNN after Baker called the USA broke lol.
Even in the comments section on Marketwatch, yahoo, cnn and cnbc you will see posts saying similar things said on CM re debt, fiat currency, bankruptcy, insolvency.
When a country has such a huge deficit, people begin to question not only where the money will come from, but what exactly that money is. People are beginning to learn that our money system is based on faith lol.
Will Precious Metals Survive the Double Dip?
“However, what may be the single greatest upward price pressure is the increasing fear of a debt crisis leading to a currency collapse. It is important to recognize that, at $1,470 an ounce, gold stands at only some 61 percent of the present value of its 1980 all-time high of $850, which, adjusted for inflation, is some $2,400 an ounce. Given the frail state of the US economy today, the chance of a local collapse is much higher than in 1980, when America was the world’s largest creditor - instead of its largest debtor.”
JAG, You might like Martin Armstrong’s latest missive called “The Other Side of Inflation”. He uses a 2,000 year history to illustrate his points. He states, “Gold is the hedge against government. It is NOT what money is but who controls the supply that is the issue. Even if we got rid of paper money, we are still left with politicians who will turn to debasement or weight reductions. It is the government that must be tempered. Not what money is or isn’t.”. Join the revolution which, at this stage, means calling their bluff on the paper. The real changes will come later.
Thank you Chris for your honest opinion on how events will unfold. I’ve been scrambling through the Internet and Media trying to figure out what might happen next. Which problems may manifest first? What may happen to us after that?
Not to sound overly dramatic, but I feel that real civil unrest will be the result of austerity measures imposed by our creditors - not to mention many people exclaiming that we have lost a piece of our sovereignty. The following currency crisis, will make the poor, poorer - only adding to the civil unrest.
Yes, the truth may be ugly, but sometimes we have to let it all hang out.
[quote=robie robinson]Just having finished two “simple pump” installs, I will vouch for their simplicity and,to me, obvious simplicity and durability. There is nothing that can break that I can’t fix.
robie
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Robie, it’s Ben Bernanke here. So glad I found this post. I kinda screwed up with the dollar printer and was wondering if you could possibly get over here ASAP and fix it. I turned on this printing machine and can’t seem to get it to stop.Your services will be well compensated for. Money is no object.
[quote=11rhymesandreasons]Poet, that is a great list. It seems the meek shall inherit the earth. I was a carpenter (non-union) for most of my adult life, and know firsthand that tradesmen have been considered, well…disadvantaged. But reading your list makes me realize that people who are accustomed to working with tangible things, whose job security traditionally lasts until the job is complete (and whom are frequently paid commensurate with what was accomplished), will be at an advantage in the new world (hands pre-calloused, attitude pre-humbled). The times are a changin’.
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11rhymesandreasons
Thanks! I only put down some random thoughts on things to have on hand, because someone asked for a list. I’m sure there are lot more things that we all take for granted. I think you’ll have a great advantage in a future “World Made By Hand” (to borrow the title of a James R. Kunstler book about a post peak-oil future).
Poet
Thanks for this feedback. I’m ordering one next week and plan on installing it myself.
SingleSpeak
That’s very funny. Thanks.
Travlin
How do we know how much public debt is too much? It seems to me that one factor that few seem to discuss is how much wealth we have. Our current public debt is about 17 trillion. Our private wealth (not including highways, schools, other public infrastructure) is 55 trillion. So we could pay off all of the public debt and still have 38 trillion “left in the bank” (16 trillion of which is fungible, the rest contained in our homes and other real property… 22 trillion).
If one looks at Debt/GDP ours is currently about half that of Japan and they are still able to borrow money at very low rates. So the arguments that public debt is reducing capital available to private sector doesn’t seem to hold either.
I’m not saying we can’t have too much debt. I just don’t think we are there yet. It seems public debt or surpluses should just be used to counter balance the business cycles. It seems to me if we are smart we would be increasing government spending on infrastructure that will provide a good return in the future – like schools, transportation and healthcare. We are the most productive country in the world. If we want to borrow and get a better return than the interest we pay isn’t that a good thing?
Both the Dems and Repubs are using debt fear mongering for their own purposes (to argue for less government or higher taxes). A couple of my favaorite fears: passing debt on to our grandchildren. When our grandchildren pay it off who gets paid? Other grandchildren minus the debt owned by foriegn entities (currently down from over 40% to 25%). Eqwuating public and private debt. Public debt is mostly money we owe to ourselves.
Notes:
Foreign ownership of US Treasuries: 4474 billion as of 2/11 (4.5 trillion) (only 26% of total of 17 trillion)
http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfh.txt
Foreign ownership of US public debt (2007) 44% (70% of that is owned by Foreign Central Banks) page 14 in:
http://frwebgate3.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/PDFgate.cgi?WAISdocID=JLbCfF/0/2/0&WAISaction=retrieve.
Percent of wealth that is fungible: add fungible assets in table 3 of this document (approximately 60%):
http://psidonline.isr.umich.edu/Publications/Papers/tsp/2007-07_Trends_in_Household_Wealth.pdf
Romans, unless you’re already and “expert” in everything, I recommend buying survival and how-to books, for instance “When Technology Fails” by Matthew Stein. Learn about wild edible foods and other wild resources. Acquire diversified skills as well as things and substitutes for money, which can disappear if you’re seen as being “rich”.