James Turk: Central Banks are Losing the War to Suppress Gold & Silver Prices

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21

There may be a mathmatical defination of hyperinflation and for you chart watchers you may not think we are there yet.  However, for many, many Americans we are. Here is an example I use.  Went to the grocery store and got one bag of groceries.  I spent a lot more than I thought one bag should cost so when I got home I spread everything out and took a good look at my receipt.  There it was, the culprit, a $9.00 head of cauliflower.  It cost almost $3.00 per pound, not each, but per pound.  Now I have a niece who is trying to get a job making $15.00 per hour, gas up here is right around $3.75 per gallon, how far will her paycheck go?  Regardless of what the "experts" say if prices have gone up so much that people have trouble putting food on the table it is fair for them to believe there is hyperinflation.  It's a matter of perspective folks, collapse and hyperinflation hasn't happened yet if you have a job, disposable income and 3 square meals a day.
There is your evidence "Pete in Wisconsin".  No disrespect intended just a different perspective. I challenge any of your to volunteer at a Food Bank and then come back and tell us all there is NO hyperinflation.

AK Granny

22

Bob, I can't tell you how much I enjoy your posts…

Honestly, three squares a bunk and my Tigers games are all I ever wanted. I imagine I will live the rest of my life with my wishes being granted.
Honestly, that statement is priceless! LOL You are the great PP moderator! I've been trying to keep up with this thread between Jim and Pete and with all the ping ponging back and forth all I can think of is the frantic song Blue Rondo a la Turk (pun intended)...

 

No offense to either Jim or Pete. Just trying to find some humor.

Peace!

23

Will occur via loss of the reserve currency status.  This has been happening incrementally for years, and continues to happen under our noses;

http://www.resilience.org/stories/2013-01-07/commentary-why-peak-oil-threatens-the-international-monetary-system

What’s important to understand here is that the whole reason the U.S. can get away with running trillion-dollar budget deficits without the bond market revolting (a la Greece) is because of exorbitant privilege. And that privilege is a direct consequence of the U.S. dollar serving as the world’s reserve currency. If international trade were not conducted in dollars, exporting nations (both manufacturers and oil exporters) would no longer need to hold large reserves of U.S. dollars.

Put another way, when the U.S. dollar loses its reserve currency status, the U.S.will lose its exorbitant privilege of spending beyond its means on easy credit. The U.S. Treasury bond market will most likely crash, and borrowing costs will skyrocket. Those increased borrowing costs will further exacerbate the fiscal deficit. Can you say self-reinforcing vicious cycle?

three days ago;
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/01/24/uk-britain-yuan-idUKBRE90N11520130124

The bank's Executive Director for Banking Services, Chris Salmon, told a meeting of senior bankers in London that the move was aimed at underpinning a developing offshore market in yuan trade out of London that Britain is keen to encourage.

It would be the latest in a string of bilateral currency agreements that China has signed in the past three years to promote use of the yuan in trade and investment.

Kyle Bass is a smart guy, and yet he readily admits that he is not up to calling the end of a 70-year debt supercycle.  We can talk all we want about the markers we expect along the way, but the truth is there are too many variables at work to allow for any kind of predictive model.  I am pretty happy just being able to discern the markers as they pass by.. the more time I have to prepare, the better.  

 

24

DearAkGrannyWGrit:
The common definition I've heard for hyperinflation involves price increases of at least 50% per month. JOhn Williams at shadowstats says its when $100-dollar-bills are more valuable as toilet paper than medium of exchange. During the Continental Dollar collapse during and after the American Revolution, people made suits of clothes out of the worthless money and wore them around as a joke. Weimar had people using stacks of "money" to burn in furnaces. After 1865, Confederate scrip was used to wallpaper outhouses. Zimbabwe Dollars were carted around by the wheelbarrow-load. In Hungary's post-war hyperinflation (worst ever recorded) shop keepers rang a bell whenever prices DOUBLED, often many times DAILY.

Yes, we've all noticed increases in the prices of food, gas, property taxes, tuition, automobiles, etc., but I disagree with you that we're anywhere near hyperinflation levels.

I think we'll get there someday, but lets not sound the alarm too soon.

 

 

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[quote=Pete in Wisconsin] 
Yes, we've all noticed increases in the prices of food, gas, property taxes, tuition, automobiles, etc., but I disagree with you that we're anywhere near hyperinflation levels.
I think we'll get there someday, but lets not sound the alarm too soon.
 
 
[/quote]
Pete,
The reason we need to sound the alarm now is because when this hyperinflation move starts it will move with a velocity never seen before in history. There will be no time left to adjust.
Think of someone holding a huge inflated ball under water, and more and more air is being pumped into the ball. When the person trying to hold it down finally gives up and releases it,  the ball will be unstoppable.
This gets back to the time element. As Jim H said "there are too many variables at work to allow for any kind of predictive model. " Most of us agree that hyperinflation is where we are headed, and if we wait till it manifests, it will be too late.

26

I googled the defination of "hyperinflation" and this is the first thing that came up.
In economics, hyperinflation occurs when a country experiences very high, accelerating, and perceptibly "unstoppable" rates of inflation.

Again, I believe it's a matter of perspective.  If someone has no job and is hungry, now, they are experiencing collapse and hyperinflation. I go grocery shopping weekly and see first hand how prices are accelerating. Yes, I understand that you are talking about the entire economy crashing and burning and the dollar will loose its value on an even larger scale, but my point is, for many the suffering has already begun!  This is a distinction that is irrelevant when one is hungry.

 

 

 

 

 

27

Great bunch of replies to my question about hyperinflation.  I'll take them one at a time.
Pete: here's an article written by that same Peter Bernholz where he claims that he does NOT think there will be a hyperinflation in the US.  Its dated - about three years old - but read it and tell me what you think.  One signpost he gave for incipient hyperinflation is where 40% of government expenditures are being funded by money creation (direct monetization).  Looking at graphs on FRED, there's one year where that almost happened - 2009 - and then money creation backed off.  However, the metric IS interesting - measuring money creation divided by government expenditures, and more important than "winning" or "losing" such an argument, I'm looking exactly for such metrics so thanks!

Mr Bernholz also suggested another requirement is when people "turn positive" on the economy and all that money sitting around is suddenly mobilized.  That makes sense to me, and so that's something else we can follow.  I'll poke around and look for consumer sentiment metrics and see what I can dig up.

Here's the Bernholz article:

http://www.american.com/archive/2009/december-2009/how-likely-is-hyperinflation

Here's the graph from Fred - USFED budget change y/o/y divided by annualized Fed Gov expenditures.  Once the FGEXPND series updates, we'll probably see that chart pop up again.  Perhaps there's a series on govt expenditures that updates more frequently.  I'll poke around.

@Jim

Loss of reserve currency status.  Yes I've heard that one too.  What can we use to measure this loss?  Presumably long term treasury rates are the metric - the ability to borrow money cheaply.  Martin Armstrong is a bit of a crank, but when a bunch of people predicted hyperinflation he has counterclaimed that a core economy never hyperinflates - that only happens in the periphery.  When trouble strikes, money runs towards the core, not away from it.  As measured by Treasury rates and the observation of money flows during the many phases of the eurozone crises, that thesis would seem to bear out.  The US remains a core economy.

Would you rather have your money in China, or in the US?  Me, I pick the US.  Heaven only knows what the Chinese government will do any day of the week.  And more anecdotal evidence suggests the chinese leadership have bought houses in the other core economies - the US, Canada, England.  But that's anecdotal - for metrics, we monitor money flows which means long treasurys and the USD.   Judging from how the yield on TIPS (top chart, trending down) and the trade-weighted US dollar (bottom chart, tracking sideways) are doing, we're not losing that reserve status as of today.  If TIPS start tracking up - say above 2% - and the dollar down below (say) 90, then we will have a problem.

@AKGranny

$3 per pound for cauliflower?  BLS response would be: try substituting a different vegetable!

The deeper truth here is, the impact of food price inflation on a person depends entirely on how much of their budget is used to buy food.  That's why food riots happen in very poor countries and not in rich ones.  People in Pakistan spend 45% of their budgets on food, so when food doubles in price, they get extremely upset.

Most people in the US do not spend anywhere near that (our average is about 7%), so we don't have food riots.  And we have a great deal of cheap (but perhaps not so nutritious) food.  FAO has a food price index http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/wfs-home/foodpricesindex/en/ which illustrates how dramatically international food prices have risen since 2007.  (I pick the orange line - nominal prices - since I'm not really seeing wage gains in nominal terms these days).  But if your food budget takes up 40% of your income, you REALLY notice this.  That's not hyperinflation, but for sure, its pain.  I'd claim that's linked to oil prices, and I have a chart for that too if you are interested.

Thanks for the replies, I think I'll go and make another page!  I have one on credit inflation and CPI inflation, but not one for signs of hyperinflation.

 

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We cannot have Hyperinflation while being the reserve currency of the world.  I guess I shouldn't say "we cannot", but the chances are extremely slim as it would mean every other currency would go the same direction.
Once we lose reserve currency status (most likely to be done behind closed doors where the avg. US Citizen won't see it coming).  When that happens, Hyperinflation can occur.

My only argument against HI happening with the dollar is, it destroys the wealth of both the rich and the poor.  In other words, the elite's lose as well.  Now, they'll know it's coming, and move their wealth to another asset, but it's still an issue.  

The name of the game is a One World Currency.  When they decide to collapse the dollar, they'll have the solution waiting in the wings.  They'll allow a certain amount of pain, which will bring the masses to scream for the solution.  

Don't ever forget that the elite run off of the Hegelian Dialectic:   

Problem - Reaction - Solution

29

Davefairtex,
Seems like a concensus that the loss of reserve currency status would be a necessary precondition for a hyperinflation. 
It would be interesting to look back in History at former empires and look for parallel situations.

30

Good discussion.  I agree with Pete in that Turk makes specific predictions regarding silver price that turn out to be wrong.  If TPTB can manipulate prices, then why even make specific price forecasts, especially after being wrong again and again?  Yes, he's been right about the general trend, but maybe he should just say the trend is up and over time it should be a great investment, rather than the $65-$70 by March, 2012?
As to hyperinfllation, it makes sense that China and other countries will wean off the dollar as the reserve currency, and as they do, the dollars abroad will be spent back into the US as they are no longer needed as global currency reserves.  At some point, VELOCITY may increase, causing a panic and more velocity, etc.  Even if that does not happen, seems to me that velocity can't continue going down at the same rate as money supply being increased, which alone should cause higher PRICE inflation.  Stagflation 2013/2014?

 

31

 
I have posted about this before to the sound of crickets.  Reserve currency status is not a binary, on-off, either/or proposition.  It is more of a sliding scale with the largest economies making up larger shares of foreign exchange reserves.  According to Wikipedia this is the current balance of the various foreign exchange reserves:

 

Currency composition of official foreign exchange reserves
 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Latest data 2012 Q3
US dollar 59.0% 62.1% 65.2% 69.3% 71.0% 70.5% 70.7% 66.5% 65.8% 66.0% 66.4% 65.7% 64.1% 64.1% 62.1% 61.8% 62.1% 61.8%
Euro         17.9% 18.8% 19.8% 24.2% 25.3% 24.9% 24.3% 25.2% 26.3% 26.4% 27.6% 26.0% 24.9% 24.1%
German mark 15.8% 14.7% 14.5% 13.8%                            
French franc 2.4% 1.8% 1.4% 1.6%                            
Pound sterling 2.1% 2.7% 2.6% 2.7% 2.9% 2.8% 2.7% 2.9% 2.6% 3.2% 3.6% 4.2% 4.7% 4.0% 4.3% 3.9% 3.8% 4.1%
Japanese yen 6.8% 6.7% 5.8% 6.2% 6.4% 6.3% 5.2% 4.5% 4.1% 3.8% 3.7% 3.2% 2.9% 3.1% 2.9% 3.7% 3.6% 4.1%
Swiss franc 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3%
Other 13.6% 11.7% 10.2% 6.1% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.4% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.5% 1.8% 2.2% 3.1% 4.4% 5.3% 5.5%
  Sources:[3][4][5]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserve_currency

The USD is still in the lead, making up about 62% of currencies held in foreign exchange reserves, but that is down from 71% in 1999.  The Euro is still a distant second, although the cumulative EU economy is about as big as the US.

There are other participants noted on the above chart and more, including Canada and Australia, are looking to join the party.

http://www.thebull.com.au/articles/a/34012-canada-and-australia-dollars-to-be-reserve-currencies.html

My take away is that, particularly if China continues to grow at a staggering rate, our reserve currency status will slip away over time.  It won't be a cliff, but more of a downgrade.  This suggests to me that we won't see sudden hyperinflation, but could see garden variety high inflation as the USD loses status.

Doug

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[quote=davefairtex]Great bunch of replies to my question about hyperinflation.  I'll take them one at a time.
(…)
Loss of reserve currency status.  Yes I've heard that one too.  What can we use to measure this loss?  Presumably long term treasury rates are the metric - the ability to borrow money cheaply.  Martin Armstrong is a bit of a crank, but when a bunch of people predicted hyperinflation he has counterclaimed that a core economy never hyperinflates - that only happens in the periphery.  When trouble strikes, money runs towards the core, not away from it.  As measured by Treasury rates and the observation of money flows during the many phases of the eurozone crises, that thesis would seem to bear out.  The US remains a core economy.
Would you rather have your money in China, or in the US?  Me, I pick the US.  Heaven only knows what the Chinese government will do any day of the week.  And more anecdotal evidence suggests the chinese leadership have bought houses in the other core economies - the US, Canada, England.  But that's anecdotal - for metrics, we monitor money flows which means long treasurys and the USD.   Judging from how the yield on TIPS (top chart, trending down) and the trade-weighted US dollar (bottom chart, tracking sideways) are doing, we're not losing that reserve status as of today.  If TIPS start tracking up - say above 2% - and the dollar down below (say) 90, then we will have a problem.
[/quote]
A fine post.  
One point I'd like to continue to reinforce here at this site is that what bonds are 'telling us' is not as useful or meaningful as it has been in the past because of the Fed's heavy-handed intervention.
Accordingly, I don't put much stock in the predictive power of either Treasury bonds or TIPS.  
I agree that the US is the very core of the entire paper machine that currently fascinates and dominates the world, and that the first 'flight to safety' is always from the periphery towards the core so US paper assets will do better than average during the next crisis.
For a while.
The long-term perspective is that the US has a habit of borrowing at a faster pace than it grows production and that is a practice without a future.  Sooner or later, with 'later' being the case for the world's reserve currency, that has to stop and then reverse.  It's either that or the currency itself becomes worth less if not worthless.
 

33

"Reserve currency status is not a binary, on-off, either/or proposition.  It is more of a sliding scale with the largest economies making up larger shares of foreign exchange reserves. "
This is how it was before the dollar became the reserve currency of the world.  But since oil is pegged to ONLY the dollar, the reserve status is no longer described as above.  Until Oil is priced in another currency, reserve status is binary.

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No matter the product never listen to the salesman solely and the bigger the purchase the more due diligence to counter sell is needed.   I still think there is a good chance we will have a UN-like decision on gold if things get ugly before a WW3.

35

Thanks for the comment on James Turk, Pete.  I also bought into the "imminent dollar collapse" back in 2008 (because, well, it made sense to me at the time) but I haven't been following James Turk that long but something about him just didn't sit well with me.  He seems kind of like the antithesis of the gold permabulls on MSNBC (the same people who told me it was in a "bubble" when it was $500/oz.)  
I've just never heard him say anything bad about gold at all.  It's just always going to the moon, Any Day Now.  Not that I think his analysis is completely worthless (although maybe you'd care to disagree?!) but an alarm bell goes off in my head every time I encounter one of these salesmen-types that never have anything bad to say about the product they sell.  Kind of like my broker my parents' Merilll Lynch broker:   for her it's always a "great time" to get into the stock market and it has never, to my knowledge, been anything close to a good time to buy gold.

Yes, gold will probably go much higher (and no one would love to see that more than myself, although $10000/oz gold will probably be concomtant with so much societal unrest that I'd rather not see that unless it's a decade-long increase) but (again) I'm a bit wary of these "salesmen".  If I understand right, Turk won't appear on Jim Puplava's Financial Sense podcast since Jim (arguably the fairest interviewer on the planet) wasn't quite pro-gold enough for his taste some years back.  

Jonathan Armstrong

36

Apparently reserve currency status is not solely reliant on oil.  It is dependent on a more generalized use in international trade.

 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/005370e2-1137-11e2-8d5f-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz2JIyQMO3k
 

[quote]The global trading and financial systems require lubrication by an adequate supply of homogeneous assets that can be bought and sold at low cost and are expected to hold their value. For half a century, US Treasury bills and bonds played this role. Their unique combination of safety and liquidity has made them the dominant vehicle for bank funding globally: it explains why the bulk of foreign exchange reserves are held in dollar form, and why the role of dollar credit in financing and settling international trade far exceeds the US share of international merchandise transactions.

But as emerging markets continue to rise, the US will unavoidably account for a declining fraction of global gross domestic product, limiting its ability to supply safe and liquid assets on the scale required. The US Treasury’s capacity to stand behind its obligations is limited by the revenues it can raise, which depend, in any scenario, on the relative size of the US economy. With emerging markets’ growth outstripping that of the US, the increase in the capacity of the US Treasury to supply safe and liquid assets will inevitably lag behind the increase in global transactions.[/quote]

Further, China and Russia have agreed to trade in Rubles, including oil and gas, to which Russia has promised China unlimited access.  And, Iran is trying to sell its oil in Euros.  See:

http://www.ibtimes.com/china-russia-currency-agreement-further-threatens-us-dollar-248338

http://www.sott.net/article/251144-Dollar-no-longer-primary-oil-currency-China-begins-to-sell-oil-using-Yuan

http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/demise-petrodollar

[quote]Tehran Pushes to Ditch the US Dollar

The official line from the United States and the European Union is that Tehran must be punished for continuing its efforts to develop a nuclear weapon. The punishment: sanctions on Iran's oil exports, which are meant to isolate Iran and depress the value of its currency to such a point that the country crumbles.

But that line doesn't make sense, and the sanctions will not achieve their goals. Iran is far from isolated and its friends – like India – will stand by the oil-producing nation until the US either backs down or acknowledges the real matter at hand. That matter is the American dollar and its role as the global reserve currency.

The short version of the story is that a 1970s deal cemented the US dollar as the only currency to buy and sell crude oil, and from that monopoly on the all-important oil trade the US dollar slowly but surely became the reserve currency for global trades in most commodities and goods. Massive demand for US dollars ensued, pushing the dollar's value up, up, and away. In addition, countries stored their excess US dollars savings in US Treasuries, giving the US government a vast pool of credit from which to draw.[/quote]

The take away appears to be that, just as the USD became the dominant reserve currency "slowly but surely", it will likely lose that status slowly but surely.  True, energy, particularly oil, plays a big part in that status, it is not the only factor.  But, even if it is, oil is moving away from a USD only trade.

Doug

37

LogansRun said,


But since oil is pegged to ONLY the dollar, the reserve status is no longer described as above.  Until Oil is priced in another currency, reserve status is binary.

If you investigate, you will find that oil has already started to trade outside of the dollar system... indeed, the petrodollar seems like it will die from 1000 cuts alongside the loss of reserve status; http://www.ibtimes.com/china-russia-currency-agreement-further-threatens-us-dollar-248338 http://blogs.reuters.com/breakingviews/2012/05/09/irans-yuan-oil-payments-wont-catch-on-yet/ http://21stcenturywire.com/2012/09/20/the-beginning-of-the-end-for-the-u-s-dollar-as-the-world-reserve-currency/ "China and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have announced an agreement which will use the yuan for oil trades." It's hard to say where the tipping point is in terms of confidence.  To be honest, we have what I consider to be an all time low (as in lowlife) 3rd world nation effort on the part of the US to squelch the ratings agencies - the beatings will continue until confidence is restored;
  http://www.sovereignman.com/expat/scam-complete-the-us-government-takes-a-page-from-diocletians-book-10559/ As with any good scam, the government must maintain public confidence.  The moment someone says ‘the Emperor has no clothes,’ that shallow, fragile confidence will come crashing down and expose the scam. Dissent must be vigorously and swiftly pursued. So when S&P finally downgraded the US one notch in August 2011, the SEC and Justice Department announced that S&P was under investigation, just two weeks later. Egan-Jones, a smaller rating agency, has been even more aggressive, downgrading the US credit rating three times in 18 months. And while the federal government may not have imposed Diocletian’s death penalty, they are just as willing to squash dissent. In a country that churns out thousands of pages of new regulations each week, it’s easy to find a reason to go after someone. As you read this letter, in fact, you are probably in violation of at least a dozen regulatory offenses. In the case of Egan-Jones, the SEC brought administrative action against the agency within two weeks of their second downgrade. And a few days ago, the case was settled. I’m sure you have already guessed the ending: Egan-Jones is banned from for the next 18 months from rating US government debt. They’ve effectively been silenced from telling the truth.
Finally, just to show you guys (and gals) that I have not completely lost my sense of humor, the latest from Turk today on KingWorldNews;
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/1/28_Historic_Move_By_The_US_Has_Just_Guaranteed_Hyperinflation.html “The politicians have finally done it, Eric.  The House passed a debt ceiling bill that throws away the last semblance of any discipline on federal spending.  It is now all but certain now that the dollar is headed for hyperinflation, assuming the Senate and then the President go along with the measure passed by the House a few days ago, and the indications are that they will.
By the way, I do agree with Turk that if the debt limit is effectively done away with...and wouldn't it be just like our legislators to pull a fast one by making it a permanent "termporary" suspension...  we are one giant leap closer to the endgame.... but then again, I was thinking that two QE's ago.  
38

…country is to basically stay acquainted with the competition. No big deal in other words that they nickle and dime banana's for Oil, Gold for Oil or any such barter…
Hyperinflation: Not in my lifetime (30 years plus…I hope).

Loss of Reserve Currency Status: Not in my lifetime. (30 years plus).

Proof: Don't have any just a lifetime of watching bureaucracy work. aka…snails pace, and it better be with good manners and gentlemanly behavior.

Respectfully Given

BOB

39

in the main stream sense.  And I'm well aware of what you've been taught in regards to "who holds foreign reserves" and the likes.  Ugh.
When will you guys realize, the Dollar is not controlled by the markets.  It is controlled by the Rothschild/Rockefeller/etc…, Banking Cartel.  And until they allow the "Petrol Dollar" to collapse, it won't…period.

After all of these years, and all of the info that some of us have brought forward to you (over those years)…and having it play out as we've stated, many of you still can't see the "truth", is exhausting.

40

@ChrisI agree that the predictive power of TIPs is most definitely reduced when the Fed starts buying.  Its interesting that once the eurozone crisis quieted down and (presumably) the inflow of money from europe stopped, the Fed started buying treasury bonds again.  Once the eurozone crisis recurs, it is probable that we will see some more safe haven flows once again.  Perhaps the printing will mysteriously stop at that point too.
I constantly wrestle in my own mind about this hyperinflation issue.  And since I'm a chart guy, I like measurements.  I don't have my ego on the line for any particular outcome - hyperinflation, deflation, whatever. I've heard smart people on both sides make great cases.  So now I just want to see what's currently the most probable outcome at any given time.  I want to wake up every morning and ask, "how's that hyperinflation thing going today" and I want to have an answer!  As a result I'm looking to construct a gauge that when looked at in aggregate will let me measure this very thing.
My proposal:
TIPS yield (trigger > 2%)
US dollar index (trigger < 73)
monetization / FGEXPND (with trigger > 40%) + Consumer Sentiment "improving" (> 80)
velocity of money (Fred M2V) increasing (> 1.8)
worldwide CB reserve holdings decreasing (trigger say < 50%)
Rationale:
I'm not sure we're at a point yet where it could be distilled down to one "hyperinflation risk" number, but an aggregation of these five metrics taken together might tell the story pretty effectively.  The Fed can't control them all.   TIPS will operate just fine as a signal if the Fed doesn't buy them.  USD will trigger if the Fed buys too many, but fails to control currency exchange.  If the USG controls currency AND the Fed buys, then presumably the monetization % + velocity of money detectors will still function properly, along with the worldwide CB reserves measurements.
The "trigger" levels don't mean I think hyperinflation will happen when those levels are breached, only that it will be time to watch the situation much more carefully, and that the risks of a hyperinflationary outcome has significantly increased.
@Doug
Sorry to hear your previous posts landed on deaf ears.  I'm listening!  I can periodically get the IMF COFER data and construct an updating chart given a day or two.  The csv file (!) is updated quarterly, and lags by a quarter.  Measuring the CB reserves directly seems like an excellent way to see how our "reserve currency" status is going and the time lag isn't too horrible.  I'm not a huge fan of anecdotes that talk about how we're losing this or that.  If you can't chart it and look at its evolution through history, it doesn't exist!  :-)
http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/cofer/eng/cofer.csv