…is unwise and whatever one writes makes no sense.
Dave, sorry for not getting back to you last night. Here we go.
This is all 100% speculation. DF-21 is an interesting system. It uses ballistic boost to extend range and then has some type of terminal guidance and homing. Typical ballistic missile employment is little more than a physic and orbital mechanics problem. If I am at point A and I want to shoot at Point B, there's a unique arrangement of trajectory, booster burn time, boost velocity, exoatmospheric flight, reentry and impact. You have to tell the missile where it "is" so it knows where to "go". It's not as simple as plugging in your Dong Feng Garmin and punching up lat/long. Input positioning has a big affect on downrange accuracy. We'll assume they have that part sorted out.
The dynamic is that the target is moving. That necessarily complicates the targeting process. Not only do you need to know exactly where the target is, you have to know where it was so you can predict where it's going. That requires a robust over the horizon targeting capability and that is no small challenge. A CVBG 800 miles away presents a unique problem in that there are few platforms that can be employed to provide precise locating data and track history on the CVBG without exposing themselves. Let's say a CVBG is transiting in the Philippine Sea 800 miles east of Taiwan (course 270, 20 knots). A satellite could theoretically provide locating data but there are latency issues. An aircraft could fly against the CVBG to try and position, but it couldn't do so without being detected and engaged. A submarine could theoretically be used, but in order to locate and intercept the CVBG it would have to maneuver at speeds above 20 knot in order to close. Submarines at high speed suffer varying degrees of sonar performance degradation which reduces search effectiveness which translates to longer search times. More time spent repositioning at high speed is more opportunity to be detected. As I've stated earlier, submarines transiting at high speed are very detectable. For argument's sake, let's assume a boat was able to locate the CVBG and get close enough to make a periscope observation and determine course, speed and range. The only way to get that report off is to transmit into the EM spectrum. That transmission will be detected. If I'm the BG commander, I immediately order course north and 30 knots.
Remember that the boat reported the CVBG was on 270, at 20 knots. That targeting data gets put into the DF-21 system and that takes time. 30 minutes is probably a generous, but a reasonable assumption (it at least frames the problem). After launch preps, launch order is given and the DF-21(s) are fired. Assume that entire process from locating report, to launch preps, launch, boost, flight, reentry, terminal flight to impact is an (very generous) hour. The missile thinks the CVBG aimpoint is 20 nm further down track on 270 when in fact it is 36 miles to the northeast. That may or may not be out of the detection footprint. The unknown is what type of terminal guidance capability may exist - but there's only so much you can do in terminal ballistic flight to move something very far off the original aimpoint.
The EM spectrum will be full of signals, and the missile would then have to sort through to discriminate where the primary target was. I would not like to be the DDG in screen.
It bears mentioning, that the AEGIS Ballistic Missile Defense system could be utilized during the boost phase (assuming the launch is detected). That too is a physics problem and it's a very hard problem. There are any number of unclassified documents that outline BMD test firing results, but these were constrained tests and didn't have the pressure of "if this doesn't work, we're toast, sucks to be us".
In short, the maneuverability of a CVBG is the biggest challenge to effective targeting. While a successful shot is theoretically possible (and certainly a non-zero probability), the search-detect-report-engage-kill chain is a series event and all you have to do to defeat the system is to interrupt any one of them. Obviously, the earlier in the chain the better.
Take note that for this discussion, we have only been postulating action on the part of the CVBG and the DF-21 launch sequence. You can bet that the CVBG won't be the only thing going on. Things that the DF-21 has no capability against.
There was NO possible way I could have written this last night. I highly recommend the Short Mountain Distillery Prohibition Tea Moonshine and their Shiner's Select 105. If you ever visit the distillery in Tennessee, a plate of moonshine bread pudding at the Blue Porch is a must, but take a designated driver.
At this point in my career, the only person who can put me in hack that I am concerned with is COMNAVDOGHOUSE. Not only does she outrank me, I'm also married to her - I guess that's the same thing.
So Armchair away shipmate…B4…it's a miss. C7…it's a hit and I sunk your battleship.
C7 is one of my favorite chords…it's very cowboy tunelike. Dsus4 is also nice.