Live Blogging the Casey Summit 2013 Conference (Day 1)

I think Jim really has located a live one here.  This guy spouts so many half-truths and non-truths its not even funny.  If you want to see what attempts at "anti-gold propaganda" look like, this is the real deal.
You should read through them if you are up for some good entertainment.  Jim had his favorite comments, and I have mine:

 
 

@Chas Caldwell  I've travelled in 32 countries and most will accept gold as payment, especially in the Middle East and Asia.

Chas Caldwell  

That is a totally false assertion, markus.  And nobody in their right mind would even consider accepting any gold  for any financial transaction at current preposterously inflated commodities prices for gold.  What would they do with it>  It is worthless unless sold back to a dealer at a 10% cost and then converted into actual money which could be deposited in a bank account.  do you really think anyone would be stupid enough to accept gold as payment for anything, particularly when there would be no way to even account for such a bizarre transaction and huge costs associated with it?  Really?

Being quite familiar with southeast asia, while its unlikely someone would actually accept gold straight across unless they knew you - the issue is really one of authenticity more than anything else, since there are so many fakes in asia - its a simple matter to go to the gold shop together, do a quick exchange of gold-for-currency (at an 0.5% haircut, NOT 10%) essentially paying the shop to authenticate the gold, and then execute your transaction.  Sheesh, even jewelry doesn't have a 10% haircut if its made in-country using the standard alloy, it is more like 5%.

The authenticity problem should not be underestimated.  One standard-sized gold bar is about $3200, about six months salary for a person just out of university, so the incentive to counterfeit is quite high.  And they are so very good at counterfeiting - currency included.

Here's another example:

Brett, the actual reality is that THERE IS NO MARKET FOR THE US TO SELL OFF ITS 8250 METRIC TONNES OF GOLD even if they tried to sell it for their book value of $42.22 per ounce.

Simply Amazing.

We know that Cass Sunstein, an Obama confidant, has advocated infiltrating online groups and websites to counter "conspiracy theories".   We also know that the Israeli government hires "university students to post pro-Israel messages on social-media Web sites".
Is it therefore that far-fetched that the Fed/BIS/banking cartel, etc. might employ similar tactics to undermine confidence in gold?

In response to jdye51, how am I feeling?  I'm scared shitless!  It really begins to look like the dumb bastards are going to drive the bus off the cliff.  After all the intellectual machinations and mental masturbation I can't help but think of what Berlin looked like in 1935 and what it looked like in 1945.  I think of what the United States looked like in 2007 and what it might look like in 2017 and I want to vomit. The time may some be upon us when we have to, no shit, hunker down and ride out the storm.  God help us all.

debu-Nice paper on conspiracy theories.  The writer had some interesting things to say apart from the bits you quoted about infiltrating online groups (which I think is short sighted, bad strategy, and hits the symptoms without addressing the root cause).  His observations include:

  • conspiracy theories increase as governments and media sources become more untrustworthy.
  • in most cases, humans tend to think most consequences were intended rather than unintended; an underlying intentional order is preferred psychologically over a universe that acts either out of random chance or resulting from the unintended consequences of the sum total of our decisions.  As a species/society we prefer the sinister subtle intentional force to an unpredictable universe.
  • conspiracy theories are extremely resistant to correction; believers attribute unusual powers, reach, persuasiveness, and understanding to agents of the conspiracy, and so any apparently contrary evidence is just further proof the conspiracy exists.  the better the evidence, the more super-human the agents become.  this structure is quite problematic; if we imagine a case of a false conspiracy theory, we can easily see that it would be impossible to prove to a true believer the falsity of the theory.  contrary evidence has a negative impact on a conspiracy theorist.
  • intensity and belief increases because of group polarization effects - a well-established phenomenon whereby members of a discussion group end up in a more extreme position in line with their tendencies than they were before the discussion began.  (The group polarization phenomenon has been found in hundreds of studies involving over a dozen countries).  If a group of radicals sit down and talk, they are more radical by the end of the meeting than they were before it started.
  • self-selection increases intensity and eliminates countervailing voices.  Once polarization occurs, doubters and halfway believers will tend to leave while intense believers remain. It is likely only intense believers will join going forward.  The group becomes increasingly more fanatical.
  • group leaders may enforce a form of segregation, eliminating information or arguments that will undermine the leaders' hold on the group.
    To me, the paper's solution section avoids addressing the root cause of the whole mess - the more secretive, dishonest, and corrupt the government and media is, the more conspiracy theories will blossom.  A rise in conspiracy theories are simply the logical end product of a long history of dishonesty.  If you really want to eliminate conspiracy theories, perhaps its better to work at restoring honesty to the system.
    All that said, even though a dishonest government and captured media leads to an increase in conspiracy theories, that doesn't mean each conspiracy theories are correct just because the government and/or media isn't telling the truth.  It is possible to understand and even be sympathetic for why they come to be, but it isn't necessary to then take the next step of following each one down its own rabbit hole.   Likewise, there's no need to adopt the behaviors of suppressing dissent, eliminating non-believers, attributing super-human powers to conspiracy agents, and so on.
    Well that's my philosophy anyway.

Now tell me sir, how long have you had this delusion that government could ever be honest and how long have you had this compulsion to debunk conspiracy facts?

 

US military is by far the most powerful in the world by far.  It been used for a century to support the US financial system.  We can print money, send it overseas and get real goods in return, who wants to give up a racket like that.  I have a feeling that the price of gold will not rise until the US military is defeated.  The only thing that will turn this around is if we get our financial a@#'s kicked.  I'm not holding my breath.
That's not a conspiracy theory, that's the global financial system.

is not doing a very good job of suppressing the price of oil.  Oil is a limited resource that almost everyone needs.  Gold is a limited resource that only some across the world realize they need… for now.  I predict you will be very, very wrong Treebeard. 

Jim,
I certainly hope that I'm wrong and that you're right.  That would be better for all of us.  We know that gold should be around $4,000/oz right now but the price is consistently hammered on a regular basis.  We're back down below $1,300 again.  We know the price is manipulated.  How do you think that the current gold suppressing mechanism will break and allow the price to take it's market value?  What event, or series of events do you visualize happening to facilitate transition from a command and control to a free market economy?  I'm not certain that I'm right, but I can't visualize how that is going to occur.

If it does start to unravel, why wouldn't the banks do whatever it takes to stop the rise, even if they needed to make possession of gold illegal?  I think that there is just to much a stake to let it rise.

I don't see what interest the military/indutrial/banking/political/system has in suppressing the price of oil.  I think that their only interest is in seeing it traded in dollars to keep the value of the currency up, oil is what is giving the dollar it's value.  Drawing the battle lines between paper and gold I think it playing in a game that is to heavily stacked against us.

The real and effective positive change I think will come about from re-scaling our world, from large centralized centers of political and economic power to the diverse and local.  This is a way forward that works on spiritual, emotional, ecological, economic and political levels.  It is way forward that works for everybody regardless of economic means.  It is something that everybody can do right now, no amazing technological advances are required, no political transformations needed.

Many of the PP community have already made lists of this sort, consciously changing how you spend your money and eventually transforming your life style. You can do this whether you live a large city, suburban lot, country homestead.  Those are things that are transformative that are in our hands.  Who want's to wake up constantly wondering what somebody else has done to the price of gold?  That seems very dis-empowering to me.

"It's funny that once you realize it's doomed to fail, you expect it suddenly, but at that moment the only confidence lost was your own"That is absolutely right!  But after one loses confidence, what are they to do? 
I'm betting my future on Beer, Butter and Cheese…

There are movements and communities springing up all over, especially Europe!http://www.sustainable.org/living
http://www.dancingrabbit.org/
http://sustainablecitiescollective.com/luis-rodriguez/131416/road-map-making-our-communities-more-liveable-examples-germany-and-scandinavia