Making Decisions When Trust has Fled the Scene

Originally published at: https://peakprosperity.com/making-decisions-when-trust-has-fled-the-scene/

This week Paul and I are at Ken McElroy’s Limitless conference in Dallas Tx. It’s been amazing so far, with the ‘vibe’ very different from last year.

Now people are more openly talking about really big issues such as the prospect of war, overt systemic corruption, and even good vs. evil. I guess things have just progressed to the point that it’s all out in the open now.

Given that, the questions become “What (and who) can I trust” and “How can or should I protect my myself, my family, loved ones and wealth?”

This. week Paul and I discuss the sorry state of the official statistics that we’re supposed to use for financial guidance, and the increasingly large number of signs that a recession is either already underway or soon to arrive. The credit impulse, which is now negative, is especially clear that global growth is under immense strain.


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Paul mentioned this one:

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I enjoy the conversations betwixt these gentlemen.

Inflation adjusted taxation please!

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Fantastic conversation

Thank you for posting

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Here’s a Trillion dollar business idea for this AI:
Replace all middle management. Materially all of them. Large business and government departments will have (on an IT project, because that’s what I’ve seen personally):

  • Project Manager
  • Project Coordinator
  • Change Manager
  • Product Manager
  • Release Manager
  • Program Manager
  • Solution Architect
  • Test Manager

Every time something isn’t working smoothly, a middle manager gets involved. If you get enough of them, it never works smoothly again, and they sprout like weeds. But then they make decisions. The decisions are usually wrong, because they don’t understand the technology and tradeoffs, but other than getting them fired there’s mostly nothing to be done about it.

The Solution Architects are the worst. You obviously need one to put all the components together into a solution to serve the business. But the SA will always choose solutions that are plausible based on the product marketing pitch, but actually impossible. They are, however, very senior, and must be obeyed.

Anyway, replace them all. All those government IT projects that always fail… you might even be able to get them to succeed if you replace this crew of middle management with an LLM that “understands” the technology, or at least its documented limitations.

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Hi Chris,
It’s rare that I find myself disagreeing with you, but you & Paul were incorrect in your views on GE’s demise.

I started as an Engineering intern at GE in 1995, when Welch introduced 6Sigma. I then worked in multiple functions & businesses including Appliances, Aircraft Engines, Capital Equipment Management, TIP/Mod, Oil & Gas, Healthcare & Retail Finance - with intermittent bouts at external tech / automotive alternative energy companies.

I have been tempted to write the story of “How GE Lost its Way” and the rest of America’s great companies followed…for some time now.

The story closely mimics Ayn Rand’s plot lines in her famous novels.

There was significant hate for Jack Welch within the rank & file, but the man was a business genius. Like most things, history is rewritten to make the guilty appear innocent, and based on your discussion with Paul, it appears that you have bought into the story.

Jack’s greatest mistake was picking Jeff Immelt as his successor.

Jack had set GE up to prosper for decades, much as Trump started doing for the US pre-Covid…

Jack knew that great companies must be #1 or #2.
He knew that the bottom performers must be regularly culled from the herd and rigorously divided employees into A, B, & C players forcing the C players to step up their game or be forced to move on, so that they didn’t drag down the performers. The culture was brutal, but inspiring - for those of us who were smart, wanted to learn, & were willing to work really freaking hard.

Jack implemented 6 sigma, with the intent of teaching his leaders how to think critically with data. I remember being an intern at this time. Between (1995-1998), I had 4 internships at GE Appliances & Aircraft Engines alternating semesters with my academic study in Engineering.

During my 1st internship, decisions were made based on the loudest voice in the room (the popular leader). When I came back 6 months later, 6Sigma had so dramatically changed the culture that no one opened their mouth unless they had real data to back up their recommendations. The change was shocking, even for me, a person who has always loved & thrived on change. It was inspiring & it worked. GE became the most well-run company on the planet.

6 Sigma truly became the way we worked from Product Management (customer VOC to product definition to design to design for manufacturability to supply chain management, marketing, sales, distribution, & delivery). It was an amazing experience to be a part of. Rigorous understanding of customer needs, process, & product was truly the way we worked. I am grateful to this day to have been an a part of that. The most basic “Greenbelt” training on the program was 4 weeks of classroom training and 2 intense projects over the course of 4 months. I’m still in awe of the transformation.

Then GE made 3 critical mistakes & human nature figured out how to game the system:
1-Everyone who aspired to be a leader was required to go through 6 Sigma. Masses of people who were not capable of critical thinking & any level of data analysis or any understanding of how processes work within complex systems went through the program & figured out how to game the system. They had interns or leadership program engineers (the best of the best, smartest, hardest working new grads from every university, including the regular universities where kids like me had worked full time while going to school full time & still performing at the top of our class) do the thinking & hard work on their projects so they could receive their “certification”. Projects were eventually selected & allowed that were truly meaningless. They defined the customer not as GE’s actual customer, but as their manager or some other leader or department within the organization. These people then rose thru the ranks without learning the critical thinking skills that Jack had given them the opportunity to learn. It’s no wonder they then eventually operated their functions, businesses, & divisions using “smoke in mirrors”. This is how they learned to play the game and why 6 Sigma eventually became a joke and a dirty word.

Mistake #2: They disrespected & lost their “Oak Trees” within the organization. An oak tree has strong roots. An oak tree is a person who stays planted. In the business environment, an oak tree understands how and why things are done the way they are. They’ve been around. They also teach, mentor, & train new people in the right ways to do things. They value having deep expertise in an area, and while Jack structured his leadership programs so that people like me could get exposure to every major function in the business, the Oak Trees mentored and trained us along the way.
#3 The Real Reason GE Fell - Jack picked the Wrong Successor. This was Jack’s Greatest Mistake and the ultimate undoing of GE. Jack had an incredibly strong slate from where he could pick his successor. When he anointed Jeff, many left immediately to lead the next crop of amazing companies. Many said they left because they were slighted by not being chosen. While that could certainly be part of it, I think they left because they knew Jeff was a smoke in mirrors snake oil salesman & saw GE’s future under his leadership well before the rest of us.

Immelt’s 1st Big Policy was GE’s downfall. He called it “Front Room - Back Room”. It was sold to the market as solidifying GE’s focus on Sales Growth & “the customer”. In truth, the customer & eventually sales - suffered. Why? It was simple. With FR-BR, those of us in the “Back Room” , at least all the smart people, who designed & supported products & processes clearly saw that to be rewarded and continue growing in our careers, we needed to leave the Back Room like bats out of hell. And so we did…. And the company eventually rotted from within.

Product designs, processes, and customer service suffered. It still has not recovered to this day.
I wrapped Christmas presents with my stock option papers one year as an internal family joke.

Acquisitions were made and those involved in the acquisitions were promoted within 1 year of the acquisition after completing the sale and spending all of the plentiful integration money. Leaving those left who were sincerely trying to make the acquisition successful with the hard work AND the inability to call out those who had just been promoted for torpedoing any actual chance of integration success.

Do you know that after Immelt, it took 7 years for a GE acquisition to even get back to break even profitability? There was only 1 exception & I was fortunate to be a part of it, but that’s a story for another day…

There is much more to say on this topic, but it will likely bore anyone who has read this far.

Perhaps I will write the story of “How GE Lost its Way & the World Followed” some day.
But alas, I may not be as smart as I think, for if I were, I’d be so independently wealthy that I wouldn’t worry that writing such a story could prevent future employment opportunities…

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Hello Lamarth, You’re speaking my language. I lead Data Science for a large organization & I completely agree. I’m in need of a Lead Data Scientist for my team. In actuality, the development & training of any LLM is now a cakewalk. I’ve told my teams for 15 years that if all they can do is math (aka training a model & leveraging now “off-the-shelf” algorithms), their jobs will be the 1st to go. The trillion $ will come from replacing all of the useless functions & empires that have rotted corporate America from within.

I recently did an internal “Ted Talk” for which I’m surprised I haven’t been fired or at least asked to go to “sensitivity training” for —-again…. Jk.

In that talk, I said that some people believe that the majority of people are stupid or lazy and I agree that is true. BUT - If 1% of 1% of the 8.5B people on this planet are not, AI has just given them the magic tools & ability to overturn every single company on the planet by delivering actual value with 1% of 1% of the effort, manning, & resources in a blink.

This is why companies must choose among the few options they have.
1 - Be lazy. Use AI as a buzzword in investor pitches & ride out their time for their leadership to open their golden parachutes
2 - Lobby & pay for politicians to write so much legislation so that a small player who cannot afford the army of compliance & legal experts won’t have a chance to topple them - at least not until the current leaders have cashed out.
3 - Invest in the “start-ups” & continue to buy them out with pocket change - to prevent them from competing or steal their hard work along the way.
4- Spend a little more $ & effort & enslave the smart ones under them to slowly take advantage of the innovation.
5 - File patent after patent on “ideas” to prevent the development or progress on them for 10 years. The patent strategy is not used to allow innovation, but to prevent it…
6- Actually view your company as AI would - not beholden to the “constraints” of crappy systems, architecture, technology, processes, functional or emotional empires, & do the hard work to deliver the best 1st.

Or… just sit back & watch those who could be creating the future be distracted by social media, political games, the actual creation of war & demise of systems & just bide their time - like the markets waiting for the point at which vertical $ printing no longer works…

In any case, I’d love to connect with you- whether in my current role/job or perhaps to be part of the 1% of the 1% that uses what we know to win the game & create a world worth inheriting after the ashes clear.

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Wish I could have attended Limitless but timing wasn’t good.

@cmartenson a scouting report highlighting a few ideas from the conference would be great.

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AI will be deflationary or will not deliver but it will not power the economy. Cheap energy does that, as the economy is energy consumption. This is a core concept in Dr. Martenson’s work I think.

It seems the AI mania is based on the expectation of achieving AGI soon. It may have some potential but AGI will never happen, as shown by Roger Penrose’s theory of consciousness. Even without believing in this theory, one should strongly suspect there’s something going on in the brain that probably cannot be replicated by electronics. It’s hard to take anyone seriously who proclaims AGI as a certainty. It makes me think many such tech people are grossly overpaid for their intelects.

I would expect NVIDIA and other AI stock to come crashing at some point except that you just know taxpayer money is going to be funneled to these AI systems to fill the internet with bullshit (propaganda and gaslighting) and to tighten the surveillance state’s grip. So they might do well.

Is the issue with buybacks that stock options are created by diluting the stock then the buyback reverses that? Some companies such as Berkshire might do it with more integrity. As long as the shares outstanding go down year after year in the buyback plan then you are getting paid with more company? Plus it’s more tax efficient.

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we can bore each other… I’ll share what I know about Ford, LOL. As I neared the end of my career, I saw middle management 110% completely supporting the company dogma/narrative. The emperor didn’t wear any clothes!

The only thing I’ll say about 6 sigma, it’s awesome right up until the point when you have to get product out the door, then it all goes out the window.

Nice! I almost went the Ford route out of University. I have a number of family members who worked at the Chaimberlan Ln plant in Louisville. We’ve had good luck with our Ford vehicles - an F150, a 350, & my favorite, a 2003 Excursion with nearly 400K miles on it. It was sad to see the Lightning flop so badly.

Like everything, 6Sigma only worked well when applied with an abundance of common sense. Sadly, that wasn’t common back then & is in even shorter supply today

Regarding AI. I’m a physician. AI creators are targeting medicine big time. For example, one of the current pain points is documentation. In the current model, doctors are only paid when the see a patient, and then document that visit in a very specific format that meets criteria set forth by CMS. EHRs are not designed to make this as easy as possible. Most doctors spend several hours each evening finishing documentation at home because the workday schedule doesn’t provide adequate time. (EHRs are designed to make billing and mandatory data reporting easy) AI programs are coming out that can listen to the visit as it occurs, and then create the note in the appropriate format. All the doctor has to do is review the note for errors and sign it. Once this gains traction, I guarantee that the corporate overlords in healthcare will require that doctors do more visits in a day. This will increase the profits for the c-suite.

Regarding migration. There must be some other benefit for the low income countries to allow brain drain. I just finished reading about the events surrounding the construction of the Berlin wall, which happened the year I was born. The East German chancellor pushed for the construction of hte wall because East Berlin was experiencing massive brain drain. They were losing the brightest as the brightest citizens sought to escape communist oppression. It was hurting the economy of East Germany. The wall was built specifically to keep people from leaving. Makes me wonder what is going on at the global level currently for countries who are losing people to migration to be OK with that.

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That’s a great question.

Some speculation:

Venezuela appears to be exporting criminals (especially gang members).

Some Islamic countries have spoken about conquering Western nations by immigration and reproduction.

Some countries likely have economic problems so bad that they want fewer mouths to feed.

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That’s pseudoscience based on his feelings. It has literally nothing backing it other than his feelings.

Every single threshold that would turn back AI has been crossed. Now people are reaching for a term they don’t know how to define as the threshold. What no-one realises is that the last threshold will be sanity. We’re going to have insane, super intelligent monsters stomping around, and we’ll have to try not to get crushed underfoot.

Oh wait, we already have that, with governments and megacorps. Sanity is powered by reality checks and the life algorithm. AGI will be plagued by sanity issues until/unless it has the features of life (and death) added to it.

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Ford spent hundreds of thousands to train around 65 employees to the level of 6 Sigma. The idea was to have these select achievers teach other employees quality control principles throughout the corporation. Remember the disgruntled computer programmer in the first Jurassic Park movie always being denied a raise? It is never a good idea to ignore an employee whose talent is necessary for the company to achieve success.

I was taught in classes how our company could achieve the coveted Ford Q1 status by one of these 6 Sigma’s that we hired away from Ford. Our investment cost in hiring this individual was very small compared to Ford’s initial training expenses. He did tell us that within a few years time only a couple of the original 6 Sigma employees remained as they were promptly recruited by Ford competitors and suppliers.

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Oh man, where to even begin. I chose to not go down the path of 6 sigma. I could of, but did not. I had a most interesting career. Literally working at least two pay grades above my position. My supervisors and I had an agreement, tell me what needs to be done, and I’ll make it happen… just leave me the F alone. One of my last reviews, my supv, said “I have no idea what you do, stuff is getting done, and nobody is complaining, keep up the good work.” As I reflected on my accomplishments over the years, I really did some amazing things, and received very little in return. The modern Ford electric vehicle, I did the proof of concept, along with the 150% load I had with my regular responsibilites. That project was dropped in my lap while I was over my eyeballs with work, because an entire team dropped the ball. I got it done, within MY BUDGET, and it was so successful that management skipped an entire stage of prototypes. Funny side story, my team panicked because something went wrong with the car about a week before upper management evaluation. They shipped it back from MI UP on a hot shipment, which up until then I didn’t even know existed. It went back to the shop, and I couldn’t get there until 10:30am to evaluate the issue. At 9:45am, got a text stating don’t bother coming, it was a 10 minute fix and it’s back on the truck to go back, LOL. Damn, I put together a great team. My career was filled with those kind of accomplishments.

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I am impressed with your work ethics and automotive achievements. All companies should be as fortunate to have employees like you!

My brother retired from Ford in Michigan more than 20 years ago. He took a buy out at 62 years old. He would have worked there much longer however their President, at the time, immensely admired Jack Welch of GE and implemented some of Jack’s policy’s. As a manager, my brother was asked to separate workers into the A,B and C categories plus provide a list of workers that were deemed expendable. My brother’s team of over achievers had won numerous company design awards so he refused to comply. Upper management shortly after offered a buy out.

There are people who work magic. Most companies don’t really identify these people, though some have the beginning of a clue. It’s the Pareto principle of adding value. It’s these people that Ayn Rand referred to with the concept of Atlas shrugging.

If you look into the greatest generals of all time, such as Alexander, Ghengis Khan and Napoleon, they were all “unusually meritocratic”. These generals found multiple such people and elevated them to run all the important things. Then their entire armies became magical.

DEI and ESG go in the exact opposite direction. I’m not sure the West has the vigor to select for us and make the deals required to win what’s coming. Maybe there will be splinter factions that will.

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Those were some ugly periods. I saw some very good people get C’s and literally forced out. I actually met Mulally, and he was an amazing leader. Company did very well under his leadership. Before him and after him, they had capt Hollywood, aka Mark Fields was only interested in his own press. Farley is a flame F* idiot. Financially, I retired a few months too early. I seriously considered staying, as I saw some layoffs coming, but it was time for me to go. The thing that made me so freaking successful in my last job, was not that I was smarter or better worker than my peers, but I had an awesome support team behind me. Every single one of the people I depended on were cut in the layoffs. I fear for the company going forward. The amount of money being poured into EV is and was nuts. Ford, GM, and to a lesser extent, stallanis have a large legacy base of equipment, systems, and costs. By cutting all the “cars”, they lost revenue that helped cover the costs of those legacy systems. Yes, they were losing money, but that’s a whole nuther conversation, but losing that much cash flow is devastating. One of my favorite insider blogs, still to this day, is Auto Extremest. Peter has had his finger on the pulse of the industry for decades and he holds nothing back. I’m often surprised by how much insider info he has.

I’m kind of surprised I don’t miss it more than I do. I took on a massive post retirement learning project to put solar on my 5th wheel. It has exceeded all my expectations. Wife said it kept me busy and out of her hair :). I do have to be cautious to not manage her, that doesn’t go well, LOL. We are loving life, and part of me wishes I had left sooner, but financially, I wasn’t ready yet.

My sales career success was totally dependent on the company’s ability to deliver a quality product on time. The lynchpin was a stellar workforce. Ford in Louisville, Ky was a huge demanding customer of our components that kept us forever chasing volume carrots. Some Ford production forecasts panned out, but most did not and the company was caught with excess parts. This always was a nightmare to solve. I am so glad to be retired and not involved in this latest EV carrot episode. Many component suppliers are involved up to their eyeballs and likely in meetings deciding what to do about the customer’s production cutbacks.

Thanks regarding the Auto Extremist website.

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