Mark Cochrane: Climate Change, Revisited

On this thread I have previously posted notes on the Greenland and Antarctic ice cores and there also exist stalagmite records that show warming in excess of 1C per century within the Holocene; i.e. in the last 7000 years of the present interglacial warm period.

To the contrary, the warming effect of CO2 is a logarithmic function of CO2 concentration. This has the effect of turning an exponentially increasing CO2 concentration into a linearly increasing temperature. Without a NET positive feedback effect, the IPCC calculates 1.2C temperature increase per doubling of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. At current CO2 human production rate, that should take about 140 years. Of course, believing that infinite growth can occur on a finite planet is delusional. We will have many other things to worry about besides climate change long before we double atmospheric CO2 again.

Stan

Hello Rector,
I rarely flame anyone and appreciate any serious questions. I fully appreciate your distrust, I call this the 'Age of Fraud'. I've ranted in earlier posts about how trust in every institution has been systematically destroyed in recent years. Sometimes with reason and sometimes just for effect. Makes you wonder who gains by destroying our trust in everything?

First of all, in a nod to Les who has trumpeted the obvious source of all problems for years now, let me acknowledge that the font of all our resource/pollution problems is our growing population which keeps expanding without end, so far. Any solution has to balance the resource use per capita and the number of total people on Earth. Unless we start exporting people off this rock, any solution that doesn't stabilize or reduce human populations is just buying time until addressing population has to be faced definitively. The problem per se isn't the number of people we have, it is the fact that we keep having more than enough babies to replace ourselves and keep using more and more resources per person. Population has more than doubled in my life time. If a mad scientists or rogue government managed to kill off half the population we'd be right back where we are now within 30-50 years. We don't need an instant solution, we need a long term one where we have more deaths than births over a long period of time until the population drops to a more sustainable level. It doesn't have to be traumatic or catastrophic in nature, just continual. What that sustainable population level would be is a philosophical discussion related to how affluent and resource intensive we wanted to be. Living like Americans, we need a much smaller global population, living like Indians, we could be maybe 20 times as big. With that said, I will leave the moral quagmire of how to accomplish any of this to others to discuss. There have been a few threads and discussions about this over the years.

As for the more practical, here and now attempts to correct the insoluble problems of human nature, I would make a small alteration to economic incentives. One of the great failings of economics, as used, is the inability to incorporate so-called 'externalities'. The issue, as I see it, is the way in which we treat those problems that we know to exist but can't yet quantify well (say greenhouse gas emissions, pollution, etc). Since we cannot easily quantify their impacts, we simply assume they mean nothing and ignore them until someone can prove otherwise which is a recipe for one environmental disaster after another. Since these items have no current price, nobody who works in those markets invests anything in quantifying those costs, and they resist any effort by anyone outside of their markets to do so. My approach to dealing with this, should I be made global economic czar(!), would be to assign these externalities an assumed and significant cost up front. This would lead to market inefficiencies much as not having any costs does already but it would change the impetus to having incentives to better define real costs. Some arbitrary and ideally somewhat high cost (5%, 10%?) is set until such time as defensible costs of the externality can be determined. In other words, the costs/taxes are set high until such time that industry/science can defensibly prove that the actual costs are less than the existing assigned tariff (or whatever term you'd like). This changes the incentives to searching for valid valuations of externalities instead of resistance to any valuation of them. This gives markets a vested interest in researching and determining more realistic valuations that would be acceptable to the industry and which would improve market efficiency.

My thumbnail idea for what it is worth.

You'll note that both in terms of population and my economic approach we are talking about long term approaches that would take generations to play out. No quick fixes.

One thing to keep in mind is that there are no immediate 'solutions' to climate change, only ways to better manage the outcomes and to reduce the impacts. We have a few centuries of climate changes already in process that can't be stopped. No one serious is suggesting we turn out all the lights, give up fossil fuels tomorrow, and return to the stone age. However using less fossil fuels year after year is not only possible but wise since they are a diminishing resource. Don't buy the narrative of all or nothing.

Mark

P.S. Yikes, I am now behind on some important work I have to do…

 

The philosopher's self, ruled by the willing ego that tells him that nothing can hinder or constrain it but the will itself, is engaged in a never-ending fight with the counter-will, engendered, precisely, by his own will. The price paid for the Will's omnipotence is very high; the worst that, from the viewpoint of the thinking ego, could happen to the two-in-one, namely, to be "at variance with yourself," has become part and parcel of the human condition. And the fact that this fate is not longer assigned to Aristotle's "base man" but, on the contrary, to the good and wise man who has learned the art of conducting his own life in no matter what external circumstances may well cause one to wonder whether this "cure" of human misery was not worse than the disease.

-- Hannah Arendt: 'The Life of The Mind; Epictetus and the omnipotence of the Will'

Hope it's not impertinent of me to add a link to Guy McPhersons essay on the subject of our predicament:

https://guymcpherson.com/climate-chaos/climate-change-summary-and-update/

or shall we argue whether there is a predicament or merely a problem seeking a solution?

https://html1-f.scribdassets.com/7abbkvuybk1eoknd/images/9-e8b69b1e6e.jpg

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/nov/29/great-barrier-reef-scientists-confirm-largest-die-off-of-corals-recorded

I'm sure John H can find someone who argues the concept of Death as a man made phenomenon.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XTMOaI4NZFA

to Hector and cello 55
Perhaps this video would give you a laugh and intuitive reason to wonder about climate change

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bC73DvTrFNs

Hi all. And a special Thank you to both Dr. Martenson and Dr. Cochrane for this enlightening podcast.
Some scientists say it only takes a 5°C rise in deep sea temperatures to sublimate solid methane hydrate. But we're already seeing hundreds of thousands of sites in the Artctic where methane is seeping in the atmosphere, and we already know serious climate change and ocean acidification (and the resulting food web destruction) is baked in, then this is just the beginning.

I am increasingly convinced that Guy McPherson is onto something. Rather than say he's a "doomist", I suggest reading his essay, with numerous citations and links, last updated August 2016, here:

"The Great Dying wiped out at least 90% of the species on Earth due to an abrupt rise in global-average temperature about 252 million years ago. The vast majority of complex life became extinct. Based on information from the most conservative sources available, Earth is headed for a similar or higher global-average temperature in the very near future. The recent and near-future rises in temperature are occurring and will occur at least an order of magnitude faster than the worst of all prior Mass Extinctions. Habitat for human animals is disappearing throughout the world, and abrupt climate change has barely begun. In the near future, habitat for Homo sapiens will be gone. Shortly thereafter, all humans will die."

Introduction:
https://guymcpherson.com/climate-chaos/introduction/

Self-Reinforcing Feedback Loops:
https://guymcpherson.com/climate-chaos/self-reinforcing-feedback-loops-2/

 

That doesn't mean give up and curl up in a corner. I think it means living the rest of your life with meaning.

Poet

 

I think we should start a new thread where we can thrash out whether or not gravity is settled science:)

Hi cello interesting video. Yes I could easily come up with several papers, articles, and scientist would would refute most of this video and in convincing manor.
So much there let us start with run away warming and feed backs. The science of the green house effect is well established and generally accepted. With climate change it is all about the feed back amplification, otherwise all we could expect from all this CO2 is a mild likely beneficial warming.  Watching the video turns out our climate system, stable for billions of years, is actually unstable and has run away feed back mechanisms. Co2 is actually a minor green house gas, water vapor is the major player. Good theory just like a humid summer night water vapor goes up and warms the air. Thus inherent in all climate models is the concept. Central to this there must be increasing water vapor in the troposphere and there must be an atmospheric hot spot at the equatorial latitudes. This is critical to this feed back concept. Problem, no empirical evidence this exists. Millions of weather balloons and 24 satellite coverage and not found. Again I emphasize for this theory of ware vapor feed back there must be a "hot spot".

Arctic ice it is still there.

The real problem is we have no good date prior to about 1979 when satellites started mapping the earth. Amundsen so how got his 13 hp 70 foot boat through in 1906. Of coursee anyone old enough will remember the global cooling scare of the 1970 and to no surprise arctic ice has be generally trending down since though as you can see from the graph above has stabilized in the last few years. Lots of news clippings of catastrophic melting of glaciers and the west antarctic ice sheet in peril from the 20's 30's and 40's. How about 3 submarines surfacing at the north pole in clear water https://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/04/26/ice-at-the-north-pole-in-1958-not-so-thick/

Re ice albedo. Arctic ice albedo is minimal simply because of the angle of the sun. The vast majority of albedo is clouds which even the IPCC admits is not well understood. I have read recent reports suggesting the clouds provide a negative stabilizing feedback though I cannot recall the articles at this moment

Re methane look here

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/09/30/inconvenient-studies-find-methane-and-carbon-dioxide-release-is-highest-in-the-arctic-during-the-regions-cold-season/

and here

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/06/22/new-agu-study-negates-the-climate-methane-emergency-in-alaska/

and lots more if you look

 

Now lets think about rate of warming, graph from IPCC FAR. rates of warming do not look special today

2016-01-05-05-27-33There is more. lets look at ice core records the last 10,000 years, from https://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/06/01/ice-core-data-shows-the-much-feared-2c-climate-tipping-point-has-already-occurred/ As you can see it seems it has been warmer for most of the last 10,000 year than now. There is a lot more evidence to support this if you want to take the time to search for it.

Screen Shot 2015-05-27 at 10.42.21

 

 

Note also the rates of change in the above graph for those asserting that the rate of temp change today is some how special.

There is so much more as this is a very complex science and no one scientist can know it all.

Again to Chris I would sure like to hear a pod cast from the other side.

Thanks to all for an interesting discussion

John H

California Crab for commercial fisherman will be closed due to a toxic algae.  Not sure is this is due to La Nina/drought weather patterns or something larger.  I know ocean temps have been warm the last couple years here.  We caught Yellowtail  outside of San Francisco, that is very rare.  

Folks who were intrigued by Mark's suggestion to do away with our televisions might find useful food for thought in a book from four decades ago, Four Arguments for the Elimination of Television. http://amzn.to/2gAuDN1
We still have a TV but this book definitely influenced how much TV we let our kids watch.

When I was young I knew a fellow whose father made him "earn" his TV time by practicing his violin. If he wanted to watch a half-hour show, he had to practice for half an hour. If he wanted to watch TV for an hour, he had to practice for an hour, and so on. He could bank his time if he wanted, but every hour of TV had to be matched by an hour of violin practice. This had two effects: He was one of the best players in the school orchestra, and he became very selective and opinionated about what TV was worth watching!

You know, just once I'd like to see these supposed scientific luminaries that apparently can transcend time and physics actually publish their groundbreaking results and show all of us benighted scientists who have worked on thousands of research projects over the last 120 years how mistaken we are. Why do they hide behind waving arms and turgid prose when they could have everlasting fame by just actually publishing something lucid in a peer-reviewed journal. Nature and Science would be salivating to publish such a manuscript! All you need is math that adds up and logic. Why do they limit themselves to paltry thousands of dollars from fossil fuel industry sources when they could be raking in millions on speaking circuits as saviors of the planet? Geniuses beyond measure.
It is amazing how easy it is to conclude that everyone is wrong from the safety of an armchair, never having to do any real work, visit these out of the way places, or work for years on end tediously extracting data from hard won samples. Heck with such powers they might as well cure cancer and figure out cold fusion in their spare time. Trivial problems, since labs and prototypes aren't needed, should be doable by the weekend, don't you think?

Thanks for your thoughtful reply.  I have never commented on ACC but thought I might add some cheery thoughts to the discussion as I am prone to do now and again.  Your answer to my question confirms what I understand to be true about ACC, it’s causes, and the solutions:

1.       There is no solution to population growth. ACC’s root cause is the number of people on the planet and the consumption of energy resources that implies.  There is no solution to population growth that is morally acceptable and every field of human endeavor increases the population.  Education, agriculture, medicine, etc. all strive to increase life spans, quality of life, and create better living conditions that inevitably contribute to increased well-being and the ability to support a family.  Most people on the planet want to prosper and have a family – ask any 20 year old on the planet (hipsters aside).  Additionally we are biologically programed to procreate – so I don’t see that stopping anytime soon.  Even with birth control and abortion we are going to grow in number.  As you point out, war and disease cannot stop the exponential function.  Population growth will continue inexorably because everything in the system is trying to create the conditions for population growth.  The situation that you describe “more deaths than births over the long term” isn’t going to motivate normal people – that’s not how we are wired.

2.       There is no substitute for fossil fuels.  As we have all identified on PP.com there is no reasonable substitute for fossil fuels in the short or medium term.  Only price can lower their consumption but at some point we will burn every tree in the forest for energy as a substitute.  We need to travel, cook, heat, etc. and some form of energy (releasing CO2) will be used.  I drive an electric car, have an (almost) zero energy home, and compost etc. but I know that these things took a ton of energy to create, and cost a lot of money.  Without fossil fuels we are doomed in the short run.

3.       There is no realistic chance of the global coordinated effort that is required to stop ACC.  Economic incentives require global cooperation or a tyrannical system that enforces mandates on the dissenters.  Corruption and government ineptitude will destroy these “systems” and they have zero chance of being widely and effectively instituted.  Rogue states are not likely to participate in such schemes.  Carbon credits and taxation schemes are complicated, cumbersome, and suspect.  World governmental bodies are ineffective and an effective world governmental body is more frightening than ACC.

4.       There is no fair way to reduce carbon emissions in the developing world.  The third world is going to have a real problem with reducing energy consumption and standards of living to “save the planet” after we have run at 7000 rpm for the last 150 years.  They are living on $2 a day and walking a bucket of filthy water from the river to their hut.  If the diesel pump puts out CO2 they don’t give a rat’s ass.  Try explaining all these fine points to the people of Haiti – if they have the money they are going to increase energy consumption.

5.       There is no consensus on ACC.  I know you all point to the scientific consensus that exists – but regardless of the quality of that evidence or the breadth of the “consensus” there are real questions, doubts, and fraud that muddy the waters enough to keep the existence of ACC in question.  We don’t have a gravity thread here at PP.com, but there are thoughtful people AND scientists in the world who disagree with the consensus view.  The complexity of the systems in question make the underlying causes of observable phenomenon difficult to blame.

I’m not saying ACC doesn’t exist.  I’m saying that we cannot stop it.  It’s as if we are trapped on an island with diminishing food supplies and someone has suggested that we stop eating to solve the problem.  It’s not going to change the facts – only the timeline – and only if no one cheats.  I’m not advocating an all or nothing approach – just that we cannot change our inevitable future.  Mankind and this planet have an expiration date and an appointment with annihilation that was planned from the beginning of time.  It was never intended to run indefinitely and we are observing that process now.

Sorry,

Rector

ACC is not the problem, it is but one symptom.  
I for one have exited the ACC debating club, permanently.  If we don't stop consuming petroleum products like there is no tomorrow, there simply won't be a tomorrow that looks anything like today.  Peak energy is a guarantee, even if ACC isn't.

The core problem is population as in over population (overshoot).

Secondarily, humanity seems locked into absurd consumption patterns.  Doesn't anyone understand the word enough?

Can you look at pictures like this and consider advertising benign?  Is this humanities core purpose in life?

This. This, a thousand times over. If you aren't publishing papers and producing evidence that can be tested and tested and tested by your peers - by which I mean people who have spend most of their lives involved in that specific field of knowledge - you have no business weighing in as if you are an expert. The scientific experts are those who bloody their knuckles in the field, and I'm sorry, but even if you are a molecular chemist that doesn't make you an expert in anything but molecular chemistry. I'm a lifelong student of global, mostly European, modern history (the last five hundred years or so). If I range outside that area of expertise, I try to do so cognizant of my more limited knowledge in those fields, and while I may posit or discuss economics here, I am no expert and try to point  that out when speaking.

 

 

By all means, discuss your opinions ad nauseam, but if a person wants to counter environmental science's findings, then by all means they should become an environmental scientist and go at it, but do so in the manner that gives their findings actual scientific validity and opens them up to slicing and dicing by other experts in the field, or they should stop acting like they know better.

 

 

Funny that we seem to be the only nation that is still debating the science behind this whole thing. 

 

 

And not to pick nits, but if you claim to show videos that refute the science "in a convincing manor," please explain how "a large country house with lands; the principal house of a landed estate" has anything to do with the topic.

Well, we know from experience one solution to population explosions.  Educate women.  Birth rates go down everywhere that happens.  If immigration rates aren't counted, European population is now below replacement and the US is close if not below replacement.

[quote]5.       There is no consensus on ACC.  [/quote]

There may not be a popular consensus in the US, but there is just about everywhere else.  How else do you explain the amazing unanimity of the Paris accords?  

In the scientific realm there is a large consensus, period.  The naysayers in the scientific community can probably be counted on two hands and can accurately be described as the usual suspects.  As Mark has pointed out, if they have valid objections, they should do the studies and publish them in the peer reviewed literature.  The Koch brothers will reward them handsomely.

As someone pointed out, we have entered the post fact era.  So, science may no longer matter.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/11/the-relationship-between-womens-education-and-fertility/

… but for a lot, there is NOT consensus; and a lot of the NOT has to do with concern over what to do about it. 
You ask, how was there such unanimity at the Paris accords, and I am going to answer that the key is that "accords" is a political word, and it is EASY to get consensus in politics, compared to in science.  You either kill the opposition, or you don't invite them in the first place, or you find yourselves in groupthink after a time. 

Moreover, I am going to categorically state that if there is consensus, then it probably isn't scientifically valid.  To be scientifically valid, there SHOULD be room for disagreement somewhere.  Doesn't mean that the next generation won't accept that as doctrine… maybe they will.  But the real science goes on at the boundaries.

Scientific consensus isn't normal; it is incidental, to the point that certain scientists agree "this is no longer worth studying… we need to move on."  But then others come back, and perhaps say, "this deserves another look."

FWIW, I do think that a HUGE portion of our global warming/cooling situation is anthropogenic.  So I actually meet the "consensus" end.  But I wish "Scientist" politicians would stop beating others on the head for continuing to be slow about leaving the battlefield.  They are right to be slow, and the rest are right to move on.
As I shall do now.

“...The desiccation of our liberal institutions ensured the demise of our capitalist democracy. History has amply demonstrated what was to come next. The rot and political paralysis vomited up a con artist as president along with an array of half-wits, criminals and racist ideologues. They will manufacture scapegoats as their gross ineptitude and unachievable promises are exposed. They will fan the flames of white supremacy and racial and religious bigotry. They will use all the tools of legal and physical control handed to them by our system of “inverted totalitarianism” to crush even the most tepid forms of dissent. 

The last constraints will be removed by a crisis. The crisis will be used to create a climate of fear. The pretense of democracy will end.”...

http://www.truthdig.com/report/print/waiting_for_the_barbarians_201611271

Thanks for the link Cello

From CNN.com:

Australia's Great Barrier Reef suffers worst ever coral bleaching

Coral across Australia's Great Barrier Reef has suffered its most devastating die-off on record, a new report says.
In just nine months, bleaching caused by warmer water has killed around 67% of the coral in a previously pristine part of the reef, one of the natural wonders of the world.
"We've seen three bleaching events (in the reef) and each time it can be explained by where the warm water was," the report's author, ARC Center of Excellent for Coral Reef Studies Director Terry Hughes, told CNN.
 
"In the north, the summer temperatures got up to two degrees above the normal maximum and that caused severe bleaching," he said.
 
Extensive aerial surveys and teams of divers were used to map the bleaching, which covered a length of 700 kilometers.
Hughes said it could take up to 15 years for coral to grow back to previous levels.
The full article can be read here.