Nichoman,That graph that you present is interesting. I have seen tall tower data before but generally the upper elevation values are more stable while the lower levels see large diurnal and seasonal fluctuations.
The main fluctuations should tie to vegetation respiration with drawdowns during the photoperiod. Depending on the footprint, traffic in general will also influence the signal. You are exactly right about the amount of dynamics in the atmospheric concentrations of these gases. When looking down through the entire atmosphere the variations for the mid troposphere are noticeable but not huge.
Closer to the ground though the variability you show should lead to an interesting amount of day to day and location to location variance in effects. I wonder about the degree to which this will affect Regional Climate Model (RCM) projections and if it also impacts statistical and dynamical downscaling efforts? The OCO-2 satellite data should help start to define the global CO2 spatio-temporal dynamics after next year's launch (hopefully with a better outcome than the OCO satellite).
Methane is less well mixed than CO2, so there is even more spatial and temporal variation in effects.
The following animation provides a sense of how much variability there is through the seasons. Notice how the Himalayas are an island of low methane within a sea of surrounding human activity.
This gives a sense too of why batting around numbers like warming the planet by and 'average' of 2 C (or any other number) really tells you very little about how the impacts will play out locally.
Mark
Thanks for the comments.The challenges are ensuring we grasp and properly apply the capabilities and limitations of each tool available in this, but in all the issues we deal with.
Satellite Observations.
Remote Sensing have inherent limitations as they are based on what we describe as weighting functions, of Radiative Transfer (RT) Theory. Hence, your not getting a deterministic value but closer to a mean. The positive is their areal coverage. The negative, because of the mathmatics, is the data is not fully accurate, plus these errors increase with energy "differentials"…also variances from the mean normal datasets (back to key principles we use in radiant energy). Work with them each day in numerous atmospheric applications. Excellent example are Satellite derived atmosphere soundings and then comparing them to in situ observations, most commonly…rawinsondes. This is one of the projects I've been working on for a long, long time.
In a prior life, worked with developing requirements for the next generation of meteorological satellites for the late 1990s through the 2010 time period. These experiences (plus numerous other areas) have led to the observation we tend to overstate what we can do more often than not. Actually in every aspect of science and new technologies.
Modeling.
In our profession, this is called Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). There are many serious issues that are limiting us because of flaws in transparency and accountabiity. Please consider the governments are part of the problem. The scientific method is not being properly followed in this arena. Sadly, too many key decision-makers don't fully grasp this. Seen now trillions of dollars wasted over the decades. We all lose.
As a government employee, it is sad, as everyone I know and have ever worked with (in and out of government) wants to solve things.
Questions this individual asks everyday…
Are we each making things better or worse?
Is the government also part of the problem?
How do we start addressing this in a more constructive manner?
Oh well. Maybe we some day we will get back closer to the truth. After 4 decades though…as a pragmetist, it will take something non-routine. These are the areas migrated to over the past several years.
Kind Regards,
Nichoman
Thanks Hooleyman for posting for all to see. David is so right, economics in these times is not only not a science, its a form of mental illness. We have turned into a culture of sociopaths so disconnected from our own souls and the soul of the planet that we have become suicidal as a species, externalities indeed.
JayHanson points out that we are designed to conceal the truth from ourselves in order to decieve our fellow man.He further points out that as hard as it is to learn something new, it is twice as hard to unlearn mal-education. Economist are mal-educated high priests. They need to be called out by their peers. Professor Steve Keen is trying to do just that, but I worry that his models are also not useful.
So what can we offer as a solution in the light of the two above models? I think that we need to expose our real nature to ourselves from an early age.
Here is a good place to start.
It looks as though someone is already doing the experiment.
another view
Obviously a work in progress. It will need to be back bred with the ape a few times. Note the forehands.