Market Mania: Why the Upswing Might Be Deceiving

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Trying to make sense of the world these days is certainly a full-time job. Among the many puzzling signals right now are Us and European equities powering higher and higher without any apparent regard for the risk of a war with Russia, deteriorating consumer data, or a still inverted yield curve (a historically accurate indicator of an imminent recession).

Paul Kiker and I discuss some of these confusing signals and what they potentially mean for investors.

These are the times that call for having a steady hand, and sticking to the correct portfolio strategy for you.

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Is it a possibility that the bond market is realizing that it is the sucker at the card table and the money is fleeing into, Stock’s, PM’s and Bitcoin? Because if true, the Bond market is so much bigger than everything else, and will keep them inflated despite the bleak outlook.

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Kinda get the feeling that we might be nearing a point again, where the concern should go from return on our money, to return of our money?


We’re all just waiting for the thing to happen but we don’t know which thing it’ll be, but the thing is for sure coming and it it’ll be the thing they choose. This reminds me of waiting for a tennis serve to hit so I can react in the best way to return. My suggestion for both is to keep your feet moving and don’t get caught flat-footed.


So my pre65 coin guy calls
Just got a big haul beautiful coins
How much something little less than 22x
So i do the math with him
.715x31 = 22.165
So u are sell pre 65 which i love, and lose frequently in boating accidents, for less than spot??
"Well i guess i should thought about 22x more "
We both laughed

He says i will bring them to you 2:15 away if u make me lunch… he comes up we go out back make him dig up a couple red potato plants, pull up a few onions that fell over, go to chicken coop and he collects 6 eggs
My wife just made her lunch so there are biscuits and sausage left
I show him garlic i had just harvested and pick one
Pulled last year peppers out of freezer and strawberry jam we recently made
When he got home he said he would come back next tome he gets a haul

Very good trade and i liked the math
Last year silver maybe 22 and i paid him 25x

I believe pre65 is best way to buy silver unless it is in IRA or one is storing in vault
Selling 100oz bars will be 1.50 to .50 under spot


A nieghbor graduated HS last weekend. I gave him a 1884 Morgan. He gave me the biggest smile I’ve ever seen & I’ve known him since he was 4.

Iwas paid that Morgan for a month of newspaper deliveries in1964… Generational wealth :slight_smile:


Always enjoy your conversations with Paul @cmartenson from educational value and to reinforce what an honest conversation of two gentlemen of integrity trying to make sense where there seems to be none. .
Something CM picked up - different people have different time horizons and perspectives on fair price on the current N stock - my take away is a confirmation that as traditional buy and hold investor, I have no business swimming with the day traders and hedge fund managers. No FOMO here (though I wished I bought more gold and had also invested in silver at ~ $20/oz)
I’ve heard Paul say this before and particularly like - play the rules of game as they are - but stay close to the exit.

I can’t be the only one to see this: WTF is happening with the Au and Ag plunge today?

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What an understatement. It is way more than a full time job and we really appreciate all the PP team does.

Here is proposing a different way to value that pre 65 junk silver.
(coinage contained silver back then. I could still get silver dollars at the department store business office with the money I made mowing lawns back in 1964.)

Imagine we time traveled back to Jan 1, 1965.
I hold one Peace or Morgan silver dollar $1 in left hand.
real constitutional money.

I hold 4 crappy quarters worth $1 in my right hand.
(1965 alloy quarters) real artificial krappy raccoon banker in the henhouse coinage.

The Jan 1, 1965 purchasing power of either hand is one dollar,
which back then could typically buy 4 gallons of premium gasoline at 24.9 cents per gallon. Actually if there was a gas war between filling stations going on I could get it at 19.9 cents per gallon. I know because I did it.

now, around 59 years pass.
its Jun 7, 2024 now, and the coinage is valued at the moment for:

Left hand: (per website)
$22.74 for a Morgan or Peace Silver dollar, or
$21.27 for the $1 face value of 1964 silver quarters.

Right hand:
$1.00 still holding the 4 krappy quarters. (should there be a raccoon and henhouse stamped on them? :slight_smile:

This implies being better off by a factor of 22.74 times with the silver dollar (silver coins). But, here is suggesting it is far worse than that.

22.74 does not account for the loss of purchasing power of the $1 krappy 1965 coinage has been held for the same time 58 year period.

The purchasing power of those 4 krappy quarters has decreased significantly. I would suggest using the 22.74 to 1 ratio here also for evaluating purchasing power that has been lost.

$1.00 (krappy quarters) / 22.74 is O.O44
i.e. purchasing power of the 4 krappy quarters,
has been eroded to 4.4 cents today’s purchasing value vs the 100 cents ($1) purchasing power it had on Jan 1, 1965…

$22.74 (silver dollar purchasing value) divided by
$0.044 (krappie quarters purchasing value) = 516.82

The combined lost purchasing power appears to be a factor of
516.82 to 1 !!!

The same lost purchasing value applies if it was a paper dollar.

Visually imagine that.
that’s the purchasing power difference between
RIGHT HAND: 5 CENTS (current coinage)
LEFT HAND: 22 dollars & 74 cents. (current coinage)

That visually is what the raccoons in the henhouse have done to the purchasing power of our coinage / currency in my opinion.

Gasoline today:
$4.46 per gallon premium.

  • At the time of writing, AAA reports a nationwide average for one gallon of regular gasoline is $3.66 (versus the record high of $5.016 in June 2022). Premium grade costs $4.46 on average,

so, the
$4.46 per gallon, divided by 516.82 currently equals
about 9 cents per gallon in 1964 purchasing power.

maybe the difference between the 9 cents per gallon backward calculated purchasing value and the 24.9 cents per gallon I paid in 1964 is changes in oil, efficiency, and taxes. Still that is pretty close.

Still looks like a 516 to 1 decrease in purchasing power to me so far. Tribe members, please ck my math and give me your thoughts.

(Having thought more about this, there are many examples wherein that 516 to one ratio has not happened. It is so complicated between exchange rates, whole world economic interactions that likely have not yet been fully felt, manufacturing / raw resources process improvements and so many other issues. I guess I am comfortable thinking that the true impacted ration lies out there in excess of the 22.74 current ratio that is made worse by dollar purchasing value decreases and silver value manipulations since then. Which is impacted differently in many different product and services areas over the years.)

Due your own do diligence, as I am not an investment advisor nor expert. Just been around the block many times and got some sharp corners knocked off.

Truth Seeker

from the net;
(and these numbers appear to be using the offical CPI type data, which may be much more generous than the real inflation numbers)

  • The U.S. dollar has lost 90% its value since 1964 Updated: May 15, 2024 $100 in 1964 is equivalent in purchasing power to about $1,011.45 today, an increase of $911.45 over 60 years. › us › inflation


@jgotobed i do that multiple times a year in different occassions/situations
I like when i can use a morgan 1924 so it is 100 years old
Young and old love them. I mowed lawns for a silver dollar in the 60s - the good old days

Yes indeed. Only have a few old ones left.