I agree that this entire rally is from Fed printing / corporate bailouts, but I’m losing faith that it will end. It seems like the markets will keep going up as long as the government wants it to, and clearly, they have no intention of stopping. I also think they’re cooking the data (the Jobs Report that just came out seems pretty doctored).
Regardless of what the real situation is, I’m losing faith that a second leg down is even possible, and I’ve been a bear for a while now.
Anyone else completely demoralised by the unfairness? When will this rally end? Will it ever?
Your Elliot wave link seems to go behind a paywall; could you check it?
The Fed was pumping QE liquidity from August 2008. It made not a jot of difference - the market kept falling relentlessly until March 2009. It's not a good idea to count on the Fed.Yep, and then government got serious. Notice the market since 2009? Never ignore the collusion between fiscal and monetary here. We are looking at government program after program to fuel the economy and markets, from tax rebates to welfare payments to Medicaid to food stamps. Basically, from 2008-2009, the US slowly came to an agreement (with both political parties) to do whatever it takes to fund the stock market and stay in power. This is what TARP was all about. Look who now owns our housing - the government. Our businesses - the government. Imagine what the deflation in housing or stock prices would be if the government exited. Hell, Precter might actually be right for once :-). It ain't gonna happen. I had positioned myself for deflation in 2008, only to watch the bailouts reinflate the economy. Now, UBI is the next big threat, just just in case the market doesn't "get the message". Then, it's helicopter time. No joking - they can and will just distribute cash directly into our bank accounts. One could see all this happening way back in 2009, and it's unfolded exactly as expected, a full decade of fake economy, 150% gains. It's been very nice, and it's not over yet. But it's too big, too corrupt, and too international to make any real cause-and-effect predictions, like the Fed does this so that will happen. They will do what it takes. All we are waiting for now is what happened to communism - the failure of the economy itself. But I think we are a while from that.
I’m going to (belatedly) agree with MKI. Not everything is overvalued.
Energy (XLE, and also OIH) got absolutely shellacked in March. Lots of stuff was super cheap - generational lows - many items were trading at near-bankruptcy prices. I didn’t buy enough of it. But the stuff I did buy is doing ridiculously well.
Silver miners too.
I also really appreciate his buy list. If we have another correction, I can dig that list out and pick some of them up.
For sure I think they’ll do better than long-dated treasury bonds - which, at some point, will probably be defaulted upon, one way or another.
A friend of mine liked this one, FENY. Said she almost doubled her investment since March.
Trading platforms crashing - usually when you need them most:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/etrade-downagain
And just for laughs - stocks of bankrupt companies going up:
Stop losses work, until they don't. Large crowds and small exits.Stop losses are the safest way to avoid large crowds and small exits. This is the very reason to use them! It's a computer automated process & immediate; mine occur before I have access to trade within the market. And the next layer of protection is 1) buying large-cap stocks (which are very liquid) and 2) using a large company to trade (say like Vanguard). The mistake so many make regarding stocks (and on so many other emotional issues) is making the theoretical perfect the enemy of the realistic good. In this world, nothing is 100% secure. Not gold, not one's private property, not even our relationships nor physical safety. All we can do smile and mitigate reasonable risk. And in the end we know for sure we will die and leave everything behind. Our very time in this world is a merely a matter of risk management, and of course guaranteed to fail in the end. Regarding the prices of stocks? Many people seem to think stocks are like the lottery. For many people that's indeed true, who are are guessing about the price of oil or grain or gold. But it's not true at all for stocks that pay dividends and have solid profits and book values. The metrics allow one to judge real value. Using these metrics, blue-chip stocks that have paid dividends for decades are actually some of the safest investments one can own. In fact, every time you hear somebody decrying "the stock market", or boasting about big wins based upon guesswork, you know they haven't a clue. The "stock market" is like saying "all white people" or "all Texans". That's not investing at all, that's rank speculation.
MKI, I hear what you’re saying regarding risk, picking blue-chip stocks, etc. As with a lot of things one shouldn’t throw all stocks away just because there are many bad ones. A stop loss strategy does of course hinge on the fact that there must be willing buyers for what you’re selling at that moment. Your first mitigation strategy will help with that - solid companies, so there should be more willing buyers.
It certainly seems like the Fed will keep pumping money into the system, and as much as it takes. Powell said this in as many words, didn’t he? It really is the only tool they have left, and in that environment, stocks of companies that produce real goods that people need, and have solid financial metrics, will probably be the safest bet.
MKI, I notice that in the list you quoted at the start of this thread most seemed to be companies producing physical goods, except for the Info Systems company (CASS)?
I came across this interesting video that seems to explain quite nicely whether the indices (not individual stocks, MKI) are keeping up with inflation or not.
Yesterday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told the nation the central bank was at the ready to support stock prices in order to keep companies alive and employing workers - asset bubbles be damned.
While that should be music to the market’s ears, stocks started selling off hard in the aftermarket, possibly due to Powell’s announcement that the Fed will continue its quantitative easing at the rate of $80 billion/mo – which is substantially lower than the ~$65 billion/week rate over the past two months.
The markets just opened deep in the red:
Given the manic melt-up of the past several weeks/months, a break of some sort was overdue.
The key question here is: Is this just a breif pressure release, to be followed by a resumption of the trend higher? Or is this reality finally intruding, popping history’s first asset price bubble inside of a recession?
Sector-wise, this is a mostly energy-and-bankster-led correction.
OIH: -7.20%
XLE: -4.74%
IYR: -4.49%
XLF: -3.98%
Looks like crude may be correcting, which is causing at least some of the problem. And the banksters are faced with 0% rates for 2.5 years. No fun for them.
Tech seems ok: -1.78%, with the overall market down -2.78%.
So far, not a general collapse.
So far.
Yesterday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told the nation the central bank was at the ready to support stock prices in order to keep companies alive and employing workers - asset bubbles be damned.As a stock owner, this makes me wary. When Powell feels the need to actually "say" this, then the Fed must be nervous or in trouble - political or technical. My thinking is us peons can sorta grasp the "secular" situation, but not the day-to-day. IOW we can grasp it's summer or winter, but to try to predict the daily weather is hubris at best. I doubt Powell himself has a clear view of things.
A consortium of large news orgs. now suing for the info.If your a fan of the criming check out these 2 cute little interactions.Mapping Corruption:Trumps’Executive Branch by David Dayen and Trumptown in ProPublica.Errybody into the pool…