Mass Layoffs To Return With A Vengeance

We need to keep talking about it.  Even though it appears that our friends, family, colleagues, and acquaintances are not listening - some of it is sinking in.

Only a handful of people are taking the university courses I'm teaching this semester ("Resilience 101" and "Depletion and Abundance") but those who are taking it need to know.  Another handful of SMART people who came to the first class knowing almost nothing of our current predicament.  So I just keep teaching & talking.

When I first went to the City building inspector for a building permit for the greenhouse last fall, I explained that I'm not building this to grow marijuana.  It's to grow vegetables when the trucks cannot deliver to our grocery stores.  On the second visit, I said, "I'm building this to grow vegetables…"  and the building inspector said, "…when the trucks can't come."  He may think I'm crazy, but knows what its about.

Vilbas, when the stress gets too great, I recommend a copy of "Collapsing Consciously - Transformative Truths for Turbulent Times" by Carolyn Baker.  And as others on this site have mentioned:  yoga, mediation, and taking a deep breath before facing the future feeling grounded, connected, and capable.

Just as the guys at Credit Suisse.
 

Credit Suisse announces 4,000 job cuts

Credit Suisse has announced that it is going to cut 4,000 jobs.

The announcement came with the release of results for 2015. The bank made a pre-tax loss for the year of 2.4bn Swiss francs ($2.4bn; £1.6bn), which was its first annual loss since 2008.

It said that included "substantial charges which are not reflective of our underlying business performance".

It has written off 3.8bn Swiss francs linked to its acquisition of Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette in 2000.

Credit Suisse said it planned to save 900m Swiss francs "from workforce strategy and the rightsizing of the bank's London presence".

The bank said that the job losses announced with the results were an acceleration of cuts that were already planned.

Its shares fell 10% in Zurich to their lowest level since 1992, because of a gloomy outlook for the current year.

My mother is actually starting to get it since she has house she is considering selling right now. Otherwise I'm the wacko collapse guy.  It's all well and fine, I actually deal with it pretty well.  I'd say I'm best prepared emotionally more than anything else.  Most of my anxiety comes from living in a rented duplex in a city that is so wildly inflated it deserves a mighty fall (Austin).  I would go ahead and buy some land but much better deals should be available sooner than later.  My significant other is all on board with checking out as well, so we are positioned better than most, just not as well as I'd like us to be.  
I'd rather be building greenhouses and teaching about resiliency but I have to accept that's just not where I'm at right now.  I'm rereading Overshoot currently and I'll the Baker book to my list.   The hardest thing for me to accept is that you can't do everything at once and even if you could, that might not be good enough anyway!  Hopefully over the next year I can find a way to help lead and teach others how to fall forward into our strange new future.

 

Good point on the highly leveraged (previously) well paid earners.  Oil workers in Aberdeen now using food banks, see the quote about the Porsche driver…

… Or those in government contracting.
I've been in the DC area for 10 years doing contract R&D for DoD and I assure you the job market isn't hurting here. It's another one of those insane bubbles. Like Mises said, money creation benefits those closest to the source.

As Charles mentioned, the local governments that have grown fat over the past couple of decades with tax revenues and unbridled growth will be in for a rude awakening when that money dries up. That said, I think the fed and local DC governments will be one of the last employers standing given the absolute necessity to keep the federal government employee welfare state operating. But Knowing this, my hope is that my family can leverage our cash reserves during the coming (hopefully) deflationary wave and get a good deal on land and/or house in "the real" Virginia. We like Charlottesville and Staunton a lot.

I like the idea and you may be right, but I have a hard time specifically envisioning, firstly what the households will be doing that will provide for the needs of others and can be traded in a kind-of underground economy, and secondly, how anyone can even have a household producing anything when they don't own anything real anymore – they are in debt to the banks, and when they do own something it is generally a suburban house or condo with which you really can't do much with. This isn't the 1930's anymore where average people owned farms and could hunker down and do the things necessary to get by independently. Average people these days own nothing, assets net liabilities.

Sorry for the War and Peace essay, but taking a broad, 100 mile high bird's eye view, there is no real reason why we cannot all be just as prosperous today working a 20 hour week as we used to be at 40 hours, if machines hypothetically do half our tasks. If we aren't then the problem stems from a broken wealth distribution system, not from the 20 hour week.
 
It was noted that municipalities etc. are going to have a hard time getting enough revenue going forward. Agreed (although a currency reset would solve a lot of that problem), but historically state and federal governments usually got "enough" revenues through taxes. Income tax worked when the economy was growing and enough people were employed and actually earning a healthy income that could be taxed. I argue that today when the economy is not growing and unemployment is high, income tax is a totally inappropriate means for governments to obtain funds. Furthermore, big corporations and private companies (Cargill?) have twisted the rules in their favour so that they now hardly pay any taxes. So who is left holding the bag? The upper middle class which Charles points out is being squeezed despite their relatively high incomes. Exactly! That's why the middle class shouldn't be paying tax. surprise
 
Call me old fashioned or whatever else comes to mind ("socialist" is the usual label, even though it's far from socialism) but I am of the opinion that individual people should not be allowed to own more wealth than entire countries, in a finite world with only 200 countries but 7 billion people, that has hit growth limits. I am also of the opinion that if we do not actively take that wealth back, then we are forever doomed to serfdom regardless of how hard we try to become masters of our own destinies in our mortgaged condos as suggested by mememonkey above. We can debate this morally, which is all great, but from a simple practical standpoint I don't see how a system like that can function with any hope of democracy and sustainability.
 
Instead of taxing the middle class, let's tax the likes of George Soros, Warren Buffett, Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos, Jimmy Pattison, Jamie Dimon etc. etc. and of course the Rothschild types at the center of it all. There is a lot of wealth tied up there (to put it mildly) that could fund municipal budgets. Poor Bezos. Under such a system he might be forced to live like the top 1% and only be worth $10 million. I'd really feel for him...
 
Correct, under such a system it will be more difficult to become a billionaire. Boohoo -- the problem being?? Instead, you'd have an incentive to work and become upper middle class, live a nice life with reasonable free time, and save up enough to fund your own retirement.
 
So the solution is to ditch income tax, which so many argue is unconstitutional anyways, and replace with a .... get ready for it... a wealth tax! GASP!!! A WEALTH TAX???? What is this, communism???
 
Far from it, I argue that a properly implemented wealth tax is the most democracy-friendly taxation system and provides for the most individual freedom for citizens and the greatest incentives for individuals to get off their butts and work, to "produce" as so many people say, and to innovate as entrepreneurs. That statement flies in the face of everything you automatically assume, doesn't it?
 
That's because when people hear "wealth tax", in their minds they envision poverty tax. But I'm arguing for the opposite of that-- a wealth tax. So discard all your preconceived notions about wealth tax because you are confusing it with poverty tax (aka communism). Maybe I shouldn't call it a wealth tax, I think a better name would be "Freedom Tax". There -- now it will appeal to the American readership.
 
Once people get over their initial gut wrenching reaction to the idea of a Freedom Tax, based on invalid assumptions about what it actually would entail, we can begin to discuss it rationally and will inevitably come to the conclusion that it is the only taxation system that will work in the long run if we hope to have any chance of humanity surviving in a civilized form.
 
So, what is a Freedom Tax? Pretty simple, we tax 10% of people's wealth (real estate + ownership of companies, bonds etc., anything that can't be hidden from the tax man) per year until that person is worth say $2 million in today's dollar equivalent. Below that, they don't pay any tax except maybe some excise taxes (my numbers are all hypothetical, obviously they would be fine tuned).
 
You want to get stinking rich? Sure, you can get stinking rich if you want to and if you can find the means, but you will be forced to give back 10% of that stinking pile of riches per year until you are no longer stinking rich, but merely comfortably rich. Then no more tax. This means that if you grow your stinking pile of riches at 20% per year, beyond $2 million, you will still get rich at a post-tax rate of 10% per year. Doesn't seem so bad to me.
 
It means that if you earn $50k a year you get to keep $50k a year. Wow, what a concept, what an incentive to work. If you own a house that is less than $1 million, you pay no tax. You could own a house, a cottage at the lake, a nice car, and pay no tax. Concurrently, scale back welfare and the work week so that there actually are jobs available for people who would now have a real incentive to work.
 
From this, most things would automatically fall into place and provided we didn't have a debt based monetary system built around exponential growth, governments would be able to find funding, simply by fine tuning the tax rate and net worth which triggers the tax. Most of Charles' specific objections would just automatically solve themselves as wealth distribution returns to sane levels. Individuals would no longer be able to hoard things and would be forced to sell if they accumulate too much - this would cause prices for those things to drop and find equilibrium with what average people can afford.
 
Alas, purists will never accept that they should be forced to give up the wealth that they have earned with such determined effort (I mean, billionaires really deserve $10,000 an hour, they are worth it!) But many others do not share that ideology. I say, too bad, we live in a society and it is no longer acceptable for such gross wealth inequality to exist based on an ideological belief system about how wealth is created by private individuals contributing to a capitalist economy. Of course, I've always argued that wealth is not "produced" or created by people, but rather it is harvested from the natural world and transformed by people. Depending on the incentives and regulatory environment, we get different results of how that wealth is transformed and distributed.
 
In a nutshell, communism is almost always a total disaster. On the flip side, traditional capitalism is unsustainable, unfair, at odds with the natural processes that sustain life, and inevitably ends in what we have today, replete with capitalists up in arms blaming "socialists" for capitalism's failures. So let's get out of the dualist thinking and come up with different systems of taxation.
 
Would a Freedom Tax provide an incentive for people to convert their wealth into gold which can't be tracked and taxed? Yes. I ask: so what? Gold isn't a productive asset; it is money. To live, people need houses, food, energy, technology and the companies that bring about such things, and those things can be tracked and won't be allowed to be hoarded. If you convert your assets into gold to avoid taxation then all that does is make the assets you are selling (your third house, your farm, shares in some company) cheaper for the next guy to buy, which therefore helps alleviate wealth inequality. If you instead elected to convert your pile of gold into 3,000 acres of farmland, you would be forced to give up or pay the equivalent of 10% of that farm per year until it reaches $2 million equivalent (100 acres?) See how that makes farmland available for the average person to buy, rather than being hoarded by big companies?
 
Would gold leave the country? Why would it? It wouldn't be taxed. Gold flows are dependent on net trade balances and basically nothing else.
 
Would there be potential for abuse of the Freedom Tax system? Of course, like there is with any system. Do I see it actually being implemented properly? No, not as long as bankers are in control. But that doesn't mean we can't discuss it. We have a choice: we can either continue struggling with taxation systems that are guaranteed to fail by their very nature regardless of what happens (income tax and communism) or embrace ones that might actually succeed (Freedom Tax) if implemented properly along with political and anti-corruption reforms. Ultimately it boils down to the same issue at the root of so many of our social problems: are the masses going to grow some balls and stand up to their oppressors, or will they meekly beg for more domination like they have for 95% of history and pray that they too will one day win the lottery and become a billionaire like Jeff Bezos?

…but that's because I own my own company.
Is the company safe?  Heheh.  Good question.

Suffice it to say that I am working like three men to build up my social capital (I have only been a resident of my current community for 13 months) since that is where I can put my efforts currently.

Live in a condo, so it's not like I can build my garden/food resilience.  But that will hopefully change by Summer with a move to a actual home-type domicile and in the meantime I have a reasonable amount of preps in place (food, cash, hand-crank flashlights, genny, etc.) considering I just moved halfway across the hemisphere to live in a 700 sq ft home.

I have built my biz up from zero as of a year ago to the makin-it-with-nothing-left-over phase.  If I have another 3-6 months I'll get to the putting-money-away (or spending it on gardening supplies – just another kind of savings account, yah? <smile>) phase.  One of my clients owns a hardware/gardening store.  Can't wait…

But if the economy craters immediately and my biz follows suit, I think – in a community where (assuming you're not so wealthy you can Simply Ignore Everybody)  social linkage is the key to more or less everything (it's an entire money-free economy of relationship and obligation unto itself) – I'd like our chances to catch on with some group that was organized to plow through the next downward lurch.  Between my Sweet Sweet Lady and I, we have a lot of useful skills.  Not to mention great attitudes, strong bodies, and – as alluded to above – a swiftly growing network of friendlies.  

It's an interesting time.  Along with everything else, I'm learning ukelele.  Doesn't cost a dime to sit on the porch and make music with friends.  Or make music and make friends thereby.  And an uke doesn't even need electricity…

Between my mindset, preparations, and so forth, I'm one of the wealthiest people I know.  And my net worth is a scandalously small number when defined in fiat bux terms…

To those out there who feel stuck in bad employment situations or threatened with the loss of employment, I'd urge you to consider:  what's the worst that could happen?  If the job went away suddenly (tomorrow next week before Memorial Day?) what's the worst that could happen?  And what are a few easy (or if not easy, just do-able) things you could do to mitigate and cope with the fallout?  Skills – once learned – cost nothing and are portable and you'll probably build social capital while you learn them.

Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good.  Don't let the big picture drown out the power of the small things that matter – and can be accomplished.  If you set aside 6 months of freeze-dried food in the 3-car garage of the house that you later lose, you can take that food with you.  And feed your family for half a year.  If you give up a $5/day coffee habit (or smoking?  or whatever) you can pay for 6 months of storage food damn quick without pinching anybody else's budget.

It's never really hopeless.  Okay, it can actually get hopeless, or seem so.  But for the most part, for most of us, we just have to let go of HOPE as a strategy.  

You'll be astounded at what is possible once you give up the narcotic of hope, and focus on what is.  

Yeah, the world right now is a scary place.  But we humans organize into tribes and we are astoundingly good at surviving hard times.  There's a virtual tribe here at PP.  There are actual tribes of 3E people everywhere at this point.  Go find your tribe.  

Don't fret the doomsayers.  There is and will be beauty and satisfactions various everywhere.  Develop an eye, and an appetite for the new strains of it.  (ProTip:  it pretty much always involves real live people in face-to-face situations.)  Wean yourself off complicated and system-dependent sources of pleasure.  Go watch a sunset.  Or sunrise.  Or go comfort – in person – a friend who just got laid off.

Mmkay.  Work starts in 8 hours.  Up in 6-1/2.  

 

VIVA – Sager

 

And it's not just the assets they lack, but the key skills and understandings that our ancestors had but which we lack. Most people don't know how to grow food, how to create cloth or leather, how to build anything, etc. 

Hi All
First time commenting.

Just some quick thoughts from one of the "front lines" in the current economic meltdown…

I live in Calgary, Alberta (the Houston of Canada). We've seen pretty dramatic changes in our city in a relatively short period of time. Traffic on the roads is noticeably down, there is a palpable sense of dread  everywhere, housing sales are in a serious slump, home prices are falling - and something about $8 cauliflower too. :slight_smile:

Mass layoffs in the oil patch has hit our city hard and fast, with more predicted with the continued low price forecast. This has sent a "chill" through the whole city and across industries. Restaurants are closing, downtown offices are at 60-70% occupancy, and people who are not at all connected to the energy business are all sitting on their wallets, waiting for the other shoe to drop.

I own a small bike shop here and we're girding ourselves for a more volatile year. We're planning on hiring less (seasonal) people and are proactively shortening our business hours to save expenses.

It's going to be a very interesting 2016.

Sager, I'm so happy to hear how well you are doing.  For me, you are a real example of someone who took the advice "collapse now and avoid the rush" to heart.   And despite all the challenges such a collapse can entail, you have followed it through, and successfully transformed your life.  It is kind of inspirational.  :) 
Also, I love this:

Yeah, the world right now is a scary place.  But we humans organize into tribes and we are astoundingly good at surviving hard times.  There's a virtual tribe here at PP.  There are actual tribes of 3E people everywhere at this point.  Go find your tribe.
Again, nice to hear how you are doing, and about the good life you are building for you and yours!  Complete with the ukulele!

Hi Curious,

Are people selling and moving, or are they going to try to hang on until oil prices improve?  I figure the reason Notley was voted in was firstly, the hatred of Harper, but also an acknowledgment that in tough times, you really want a socialist government to deficit spend, initiate infrastructure projects and do everything they can in the interest of those who suffer the most. 

I hope the socialist paradigm catches on in a big way – close tax loopholes and sock it to the super wealthy and anybody making over $250,000, per year. If doctors and other essential service people don't like it and want to move away, they should have to forfeit citizenship. 

This is where it's all eventually headed. Oil has preserved dollar hegemony and allowed the U.S to behave in a rogue way for quite some time. So much of the crap going on in Syria involves the U.S wanting to maintain control over China through oil pipelines that would easily service them. To be able to control countries who will provide easy access to this oil is a way of controlling China and disabling it, should the need arise. This is one of the reasons the U.S is buddy buddy with Iran now and why Saudi Arabia has become such a pain in the ass. 

Alright, I'll bite. Why the taboo with plotting out the LTG curves? If someone makes a model that has a time abscissa…how is "zooming in" on that model misrepresenting the book? Particularly with trend data roughly following the standard run model over the past 30 years?

Apologies for snapping Climber99…just minutes before I read your post I was on the receiving end of a rather acute case of road rage. This is just my impression, but my take is that the general stress level out there is quite high.

Advice to all right now - proceed with vigilance and caution.

PS. - The Baltic Dry Index at 298…might that be related to "Industrial Output per Capita"?

 

… and in the reason for the alert, asked the moderator to add the caveat “dates added by me”, the moderator could and would do so.

Consider the reason for Daylight Savings Time: by fiddling with the clocks, masters could get an extra hour of labor out of their slaves and servants.
In other words, it was all about taking everything the owners could get.
Or look at the Children of Israel in Egypt when Moses started acting up: what did the slavedrivers do? They increased the workload and decreased the tools, beyond the level of what was supportable, and lost everything, including their lives, their gold, their slaves, and all.
The forty hour workweek is most likely not the optimum level of labor; it is the maximum level of labor that is available to be seized by the owners.
More than that, and the maintenance on the chattel is not being handled.
I know, I work in construction (with an engineering degree) and work from between 4:30 am - 6:30 am, until between 4:30 pm and 600 pm… six days a week. I refuse the seventh on religious grounds, but therefore the seventh is also not available to me to maintain my family. Almost ALL of my labor is seized or destroyed one way or another. I am not free to move, but I am NOT planning on directing my sons into the same path.
Rather, the path I am guiding them towards is going to respond to that.
It’s worse for the low-value labor, but what with government benefits to the poor, the difference is marginal. There’s a reason for that: it is so that the owners can seize all of everything they can get.
Of course, with God’s help, the effect of that marginal difference hopefully will be huge. Hopefully. We’ll see.
We are living in very interesting times.

I offer this article of a near miss disaster for Virginia slavedrivers everywhere.
http://www.nbcnews.com/id/5353196/ns/business-us_business/t/judge-blocks-sundays-off-law-virginia/

Hi CuriousCDN!
As a former Calgarian (lived there 23 years) who still has family in that city, I am watching with interest how family and friends alike are reacting to what is happening. Most are still wearing their rose coloured glasses, insistent that this too will pass and before long it will be back to let the good times roll. There have been so many booms and busts that most think this is just one more downturn that will hurt for a bit and then things will turn around again. The endless optimism and can do attitude that defines Calgary means many believe that solutions will be found via technology or other means that are not yet invented. The biggest mistake I see is the collective failure to acknowledge the limits to growth. People just cannot go there. They refuse to go there… 

Someone close to me, who is perfectly representative of the Calgarian personna and all the braggadocio that goes with that, is trying to convince me that there other visions that I can buy into (read: I do not need to prep or buy into all the crap blogs I read). He gave me a book called The Rational Optimist by Matt Ridley, which was a NY Times bestseller. Curious, I flipped through it but when I came across a passage where the author suggests that herbicides and pesticides as well as GMO foods are great because they enable us large scale agriculture with which feed the masses, I knew that it was not a vision that would align with my views. Quite the contrary. Did not read the book, don't need to. I then Googled the author to find out who he was and learned that amongst other things, he is the former head of the UK bank Northern Rock which had to be bailed out after a bank run. Another check against his credibility. Yet people are willing to overlook that because his vision feeds their need for optimism, enabling them to continue denying what is happening before their eyes. They are still seeing problems that have solutions, refusing to see predicaments that can only be managed. Most Calgarians are seriously married to the idea of endless growth and prosperity and nothing short of a collapse is going to move them off of that point of view.

The fact that you have posted here tells me that perhaps some people are starting to wake up. If I were you, as a small bike shop owner, I would be doing some strategic thinking around how you can benefit from the inevitable decline in the city's love affair with big trucks & SUV's, and a profound driving culture. Bring in electric bikes; push for the city to allow electric bikes on the multitude of bike paths; find ways to be the early leader helping the city transition to new transportation models. Find a way to change people's view of cycling from being a recreational pursuit to a viable form of transportation that has many side benefits. Find ways to make cycling more viable in winter conditions.

At least you are in control of your destiny, and your product is something that has a future. This cannot be said for the thousands who are losing jobs and now having to face the realities that most Calgarians have been denying for so long. The party punch bowl is empty and this is going to be a doozy of a hangover. As much as I wish it were not so, there will be many years past 2016 that will be painful. Few people are prepared for what is coming and it is not going to be pretty, especially for those who have been living large and well beyond their means.

Good luck to you!

Jan

The Limits to Growth World3 Simulator (Facebook Page)
world3simulator.org

Nice to see you, Pinecarr!

Glad if I can help anybody get excited about their own personal collapse!  <smile>  But I must say I have had plenty of help getting my collapse on, whether from the world, TPTB, or my ex-wife.  They all deserve some credit too!  <wry grin>

I play a little game with myself:  I think in terms of my true needs.  Can I provide for X without needing to earn fiat bux?  Or can I do without?  Every bit of fiat bux I don't have to earn is Precious Time I can spend doing something more dear.  I've become quite ruthless (happily so!) at cutting away the unnecessary, or figuring alternate ways of providing for X.  Learning to play a (portable, non-electric) musical instrument serves so many needs and costs so little it's a no-brainer.  It's a social activity, it's a creative activity, it's a way to make friends and pass time.  It's therapeutic – a way to express emotion, shift your state of mind.  

It's deeply human in an old-fashioned way.  Try and you'll see.  People will respond in ways that will surprise even them…

To quote something I saw recently:  "You're a spirit inside a meat-covered skeleton standing on a rock hurtling through space at 60,000 mph.  FEAR NOTHING!"

Just learned Blind Boys of Alabama's version of "Amazing Grace."  Really simple, really awesome!  

VIVA – Sager