snydeman-
Anyway, I knew all about the rates, but didn't realize how much was at play in the background, and what's at play seems to be some big players moving towards the exits....I didn't come up with the bit about Bunds being a bet on a EZ implosion - that was Martin Armstrong. I read it, and said, "wow, that's a really clever move." Money moves in advance of the trouble. He has said many times that his computer can see wars coming, because the connected insiders always move their money prior to the start of the affair, and the computer watches the money flows.
What "big money" will do when the EU has its real crisis is absolutely key. It won't just sit there and let itself get "extinguished", it will try to move somewhere it sees as relatively safer, and the price of that thing will explode higher. This is Martin Armstrong again saying this, but I totally agree with it.
If you lived in Spain, and you knew for certain (from your friend, the FinMin) that Spain was going to leave the EZ, you'd move every penny you have "somewhere else" - where it wouldn't get turned into Pesetas. You'd park it there for a time, and then move it back once all the fuss was done. This would allow you to buy up real things back in Spain at half price, maybe better. And Martin Armstrong's computer can see this happening - from what he says anyway.
This flee-then-return recipe was used when Argentina had its currency trouble; the rich people sucked money out of the country, it snapped the peg, and then when it calmed down they came back and bought up all their favorite things for pennies on the dollar. This is also why all the gold fled the US immediately before FDR took office in 1933 - rich people who were at least somewhat awake got the message that he'd devalue so they took their gold out of the country, waited for the reprice, and then returned to collect the 40% gain.
This affects us here because the US is seen as safer than the EU, so the prices of our "financial stuff" should pop hard when this event occurs, but once things calm down back in the home country…all that money will flow right back out again…ouch…