Michael Shermer: The Importance Of Skepticism

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Great information from people who seem to know something of the subject!
It seems to me that if I were setting up my own home for solar that was still tied into the grid that I would be balancing two objectives. 1. generating as much of my own power during the day and 2. having sufficient storage capacity for short intervals (nights) or critical times (grid outages).

I personally don't see the need for the ability to run a household as if there were no problems during a 'grid-down' power outage. If you are living off grid you need to be able to cover all your needs and wants all of the time but if you are still tied into the grid you need to be able survive those times (needs) when the grid is not available. That doesn't mean, for me, that I just live fat, dumb and happy. In those conditions I simply want my battery back up to help me cover the essentials, much as my generator used to do (when I owned a home), over nights or cloudy periods until the power is restored. Things like sump pumps, freezers/refrigerators, and the furnace, a few critical lights etc. Hot water should be from or assisted by passive solar. Washer and dryer are not going to be used. If it summer we'll have to live without the AC etc.

Like many preps it seems to be a question of what scenario(s) you are planning for and can afford? Having some power, even if it is only during the day (i.e. no storage capacity) should be better than nothing at all. Reducing load is as good or better than increasing generation capacity in reaching your energy independence/security goals for an existing home but only if you have some capacity to work with in the first place.

Does anyone have insights or resources for balancing these various factors? Investing in insulation may be a lot more effective than adding more batteries or solar panels for example. If building you home, some intelligent design could go a long way to reducing the needed solar/battery capacity for your dwelling.

Thanks for all of the insights. I'm hoping to be back in a house I own within another year or so and being able to invest in my own property.

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Mark Wrote: "Having some power, even if it is only during the day (i.e. no storage capacity) should be better than nothing at all."
You need an energy storage system if you want to operate in a no-grid or down-grid home. Applicances will have a high current demand during the first second of startup and will your PV array may not be able to supply enough power for startup. You also need to have power storage to handle PV ouput drops, when cloud coverage drops the PV output. It would be bad if you have frequent brownouts that will either damage yoir inverter or damage your applicances. Its also possible that a running device such as a washing machine with stop mid-cycle causing problems. Small battery banks are prone to shorter lifetimes. A bigger bank will last considerable longer since it the batteries will degrade much slower. Higher voltage banks are better than low voltage banks. Ideally a 48V battery bank or higher voltage would be best since the inverter & chargers will operate more efficiency and reduce system operating stress.

Mark Wrote: " Investing in insulation may be a lot more effective than adding more batteries or solar panels for example. If building you home, some intelligent design could go a long way to reducing the needed solar/battery capacity for your dwelling."

Yup,Insulatation is key to both heating and cooling.I am working on designing a home with about an R-30 envelope Walls can be 2x8 (two 2x4s) or constructed with SIP (Structured Insulated panels). Roof and siding should set up with an air gap to permit convectional air flow to avoid summer heat from transmititng into the home. a Metal Roof should have a thermal reflective paint. For insulation, either spray foam, rigid panels or Roxul panels. Personally I am avoiding spray foam, even though its the most efficient because of toxic problems if its not applied correctly, and would make repairs more difficult. Currently, I am leaning towards Roxul semi-rigid panels with 2x8 construction. I would recommend avoid using the tradional fiberglass batts do to poor efficiency. 

For heating system the best option (from my research) is to go with hydronic radiant heating. which PEX tubes are placed the floor. This is generally more efficient than baseboard convection radiators, and the hydronic system can be coupled with solar thermal panels. In most cases, solar thermal panels do not get the water hot enough to permit convection radiators to function. Base board radiators need about 160F to operate. While is possible solar thermal panels can provide 160F water, its unlikely to provide that during the morning and late afternoon, or in poor weather conditions (spotty clouds)  Hydronic Radiant systems can operate with 80F water, which will make better use of solar thermal panels. A hydronic radiant heating system can be coupled with multiple heating sources: Solar Thermal panels, Wood stove or Outdoor wood stove, and traditional furances (Oil, natGas, Propane). The heat sources can be coupled in-line using a set of heat exchangers to get the water temperature to appropriate level. Also a hydronic radiant heating system can make use of thermal mass, if the tubes are placed in the concrete slab, or in a gypsum floor pour, can permit the home to remain warm for many hours after the heat source is removed. 

ideally it would be better to purchase land without a home and build a new home designed around efficiency. I think it would likely be more costly to retrofit an older home than it would be to build from scatch. The problem with older homes is that the walls are usually not sealed very well and a there is significant air flow between the outside. It would be difficult to retrofit a 2x4 or perhaps even a 2x6 home to R-30 equivent (in my opinion). You would need to completely gut a home for a retrofit which will cost a lot of money. In a retrofit, you will also likely need to replace the windows, roof ( with durable metal roof), low maintaince siding (hardie board). Basically the only thing reusable in a home is probably going to be the foundation, plumbing, and the framing. 

"Things like sump pumps, freezers/refrigerators, and the furnace"

I would think you want to operate more than just those basics, including as a vacuum clear (shopvac), well pump, fans (Window/ceiling, in hot weather conditions), washing machine for clothes, Kitchen appliances (blender, mixer, microwave, toaster, vacuum bag sealer, etc), air compressor and other shop tools for maintaince & repair. There is a big difference from living with out power for a few days, to living without it for weeks or months. 

if you want to learn more about energy efficient design, I would recommend you take a look at "Matt Risinger" Tube channel. Matt is a contractor that specializing in energy efficent and low maintaince homes. 

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…were for casino use, for data center use… these are long term usage situations, not just 30-90 seconds.
The total energy storage is going to have a lot to do with how long they can source power; the power draw rate will also affect that.
I can’t imagine a casino wanting to shut down neatly: the casino wants to stay up and running. Same goes for a data center. It may be hours, or even a day, before power gets restored.

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"Some of those flywheel systems I linked to were for casino use, for data center use… these are long term usage situations, not just 30-90 seconds."
Sorry, but.thats not how they work, Having worked with data centers, I can tell you that flywheels are just short term storage devices that just provide enough storage for generators to to pick up the load.

 from the link you provided: [note on the 15 second run time estimate]

4.4" high; 25.5" in diameter; 600 lbs rotating mass
Stores ~ 4 MJ of energy (240 kW for 15 seconds)

All of the commerical flywheel products operate for less than a couple of minutes. For casinos, they have large backup generators that power up before the Flywheel spins down. Data centers and other business that need UPS, want to ditch batteries because of the costs and maintaince. Data centers use backup generators, they just use the batteries long enough to start up the generator and transfer the load. 

There was a company working on carbon fiber flywheel designs that could power devices for hours, but they went bust about 10 years ago. Their flywheel designs would have been pretty expensive as they used carbon fiber rotors, frictionless magnetic bearing and the rotors spun at +60k rpm, in a high vacuum chamber. I don't think they ever released a working product.

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The problem is that the grid isn't precisely locked. Frequency and phase drifts over time. Averaging doesn't solve the problem and actually causes the problem. You would need something like the World Wide Atomic clock (10Mhz AM broadcast Signal) but would broadcast the exact frequency and phase of the grid power, and then use a Phase locked loop on that signal with the inverter.However that is not really a perfect solution since the grid isn't always connected to everything. Sometimes there are regional blackouts or  times when transmission lines are shutdown for maintaince creating grid islands and they get out of phase. When the maintence or repair work is done, the grid operations work to slowly bring the islands back in phase and reconnect to the natiional grid. As I stated early, the Grid is complicated. There is no simple solution.

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…if you took a 4 MW flywheel system, and drained it at a rate of 11 kw? What part would burn out? Where would the energy go? What part would blow up?

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These flywheels have large losses when they spin down. I don't know exactly how long it would work with an 11 kw, but probably not more than a few minutes.  Its not 4MW, its 4M joules. if it was 100% efficient with no losses a 4MJ system would provide about 6 Minutes of power at 11KW. 

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Hmmm… I have to agree with you on that, techguy. Seems I had a brain fart. Let’s see, I was trying to store 1.5 days = 36 hrs = 2160 minutes. Divide by 6 minutes, and I was off by a factor of 360?
Sorry, that’s some brain fart.
So to store a day and a half would imply 2000 MJ… a lot more. And probably prohibitively expensive.
Yeah, I have to agree with you.

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To buy cheap land on a steep slope.
Put a tank at the bottom and one at the top.

Use whatever energy you harvest by whatever means to pump water uphill. 

Install a mini hydro station to provide  your mains power. 

Or just wait for someone else to solve the problem. 

 

http://www.integrityresearchinstitute.org/

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Hello Mark,

Sorry for the delay in my reply. Because of the "importance of skepticism," I actually decided that I'd skim the IPCC reports to see what was written. I decided to read all the Executive Summaries and then skim through the remainder to get a gist of what was included. I searched for key words to see how that was addressed by the collective. I didn't bother looking at any of the references. Those are bore holes that have never ending branching.

I found it excruciatingly difficult to read. I kept looking for excuses not to read it. My wife wanted me to watch the Olympics with her … so I did. (There were lots of car commercials.) I found other distractions. When the calendar turned to September, I told myself that I need to read this and respond. Frankly, I gave up on the third link after reading a few paragraphs and realizing that I was thinking about the last root canal I had. That was when I decided to admit failure and move on.

Here's what I got from my readings.

  1. Climate is going to get hotter due to GHG. It will be more pronounced in high latitudes. Growing seasons will get generally longer, but occasionally, there will be later spring killing frosts and earlier fall killing frosts. Wet areas will get generally wetter. Dry areas will get generally drier. Weather events will generally become more extreme with bigger storms, longer droughts, bigger floods, stronger winds … generally more destruction.

  2. Maps showing climate model forecasts were so pixilated or course as to be worthless for identifying expected impacts to any given location.

  3. Peak oil isn't a hard and fast concept. New methodologies are continually developed that push the date for peak oil further out; therefore, there isn't any expected peak.

  4. GHGs persist in the atmosphere for a long time. It doesn't matter where those gasses are sourced, it impacts all of us; therefore, there needs to be a global concerted effort to limit these gasses.

  5. Population was expected to grow as well as world economies. The only mitigation that I read about was reducing emissions. I didn't see anything about sequestering Carbon dioxide. (It doesn't mean it wasn't there - I just didn't read anything about it and I was actually looking for something about sequestering.) There wasn't anything (that I read) that said what level of emissions was acceptable. I couldn't help but think about Krugman's defense of QE when it didn't work - it just wasn't big enough.

  6. When I read about "MRV" (I remember that "M" was for measurement, but I don't remember exactly what the "RV" stood for - ___ and validate ???,) I got the feeling that the climate change folks were setting themselves up to be the enforcement arm of a one world government. Sigh!

  7. There were several calls for more research to get a better handle on the problem. Essentially, all these folks doing all this research and flying all over to attend all these conferences want the research and conferences to continue. Since the emission of GHGs need to be controlled, others will need to double down to limit overall emissions.

I'm really not trying to develop a straw man argument, but I didn't read anything that changed my opinion of the whole shebang. I was under the impression that it was an intractable problem/predicament and I still have that opinion. I haven't seen any proposed cure that isn't worse than the disease.

I was shocked to read that peak oil really didn't exist. You've stated something to the effect that it will be around for centuries. Are you talking the IPCC book, or do you really believe that?

To me, it all boils down to "how long will business as usual (BAU) continue?" If BAU continues for centuries, climate change will be an increasingly bigger issue for succeeding generations. If the limits of our finite planet actually exert themselves on the human population, population is going to diminish. As population drops, the anthropogenic drivers of climate change will also drop.

Grover

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I've been trying to see if there are any alternative energy generator systems that actually have a chance of providing enough energy to the system to actually make a difference. They all have significant problems. As Mark_BC noted, biofuels aren't scalable. Wind and solar are intermittent. As noted, nuclear has its own set of problems and the fuel ores are being depleted. Hydroelectric is limited to where dams can be constructed and water is available to impound. Unless Arthur Robey's LENR works remarkably well and can be scaled up incredibly fast, we're screwed.
Gail Tverberg wrote an article about the problems of tying intermittent alternative power sources to the grid. At low levels of implementation, the added input can be handled. As the percentage grows to low double digits, problems associated with costs arise. The intermittent sources crowd out the continual sources while the intermittent sources are producing. This lowers the paycheck of the continual sources. At some point, there isn't any financial incentive to produce more generational capacity.

https://ourfiniteworld.com/2016/08/31/intermittent-renewables-cant-favorably-transform-grid-electricity/

I remember seeing a TedTalk a few years back about batteries using cheap molten metals as the anode and cathode and an appropriate salt as the electrolyte. In order to work, all working components would need to be molten. The batteries are about as efficient as NiFe batteries, so the charging/discharging would add enough energy to the system to keep it molten. They have high charge capacity and can switch quickly between charging/discharging. Apparently, the fade rate is very low which means it can go through tens (or hundreds) of thousands of cycles. Here's a link to a technical review of the technology. At the bottom of the review, the same TedTalk with Don Sadoway is included.

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/is-this-ambris-new-liquid-metal-battery-materials-formula

Also, here is a link to the company Don spoke about: http://www.ambri.com/. They were originally planning to be manufacturing by this time, but had problems with the battery seal. They are now looking for money to build a factory and hope to begin manufacturing in 2017.

This system holds promise (if it works as they claim.) Without cheap battery storage, intermittent energy sources won't meet our societal needs. (It won't meet individual needs too well either.)

Full disclosure: I don't have any ties to the company whatsoever. I just find this work intriguing.

Grover

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I’m pretty sure MRV is a critical part of government control of all aspects of a person’s life. of coures, it will be open to fraud, at which point governments will either give up or dcide that they need to reduce the number of uncontrolled units…
But that’s part of the nature of trying to do the impossible, believing that the impossible is not only somehow possible, but necessary.
http://www.africacarbonforum.com/2013/docs/Presentations/D2/RT6/RT6_PerumalArumugam_UNFCCC.pdf
It’s kindof like the NSA trying to spy on everyone.
Idiocy.

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Michael,
Thanks for the clarification. You'd think I would have remembered what the acronym, MRV meant. I agree that it is a critical part of governmental control. Measurement provides a basis for sanctions - both positive and negative. Reporting is a call to a higher authority (after all, why report to a lower entity?) I'm not sure what function the "Verify" serves. Is it to verify that goals were/were not met?

(The rest is for everyone,)

The report function should send chills down thinking peoples' spines. It tells me that I'm subservient to a higher order. Once we acquiesce, our freedom will be forever lost. Will the higher order actually fix the problem? Why would they kill the cash cow? It's better to blame the servants for not growing enough grass to feed the cash cow. It's even better to let the servants blame themselves for not growing enough grass as the higher order carves steaks from the carcass.

There is no politically expedient solution to the predicament of climate change. Until there is one that has firm documented costs and benefits, why bother trying to make the impossible happen? (As an example, would you contract with a house builder who didn't give a firm quote?)

If, collectively, we cut emissions to 1990 (arbitrarily chosen date) levels, will that be sufficient to stave off climate change? Remember that world population was a lot lower in 1990. Cut emissions to that level and lots of people are suddenly unemployed. Who is going to feed them? Why feed them if they can't afford it? How long are you willing to do so? Think about it! Remember, your emissions are going to be constrained as well. You can't just flip as switch and make it so.

Once you agree to the statists' unstated climate change terms, you are trapped in a carnival huckster's game. You will always be just a little bit away from winning and you will be asked to contribute more and more. If you think this is hyperbole, ask any climate change worry wart what exactly needs to be done to keep climate change in check. If they're honest, they can't answer you.

Grover

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is to try to check the checkers.  Take, for example, the Canadian plan to limit fishery overuse and depletion. 
One of the main problems is that if you had a license for dolphin, you'd take your dolphin, and throw back the shark; but the shark still dies.  Thing is, every fisherman DOES get some of what he doesn't want. 

So the Canadians developed a system whereby you have the option to let some of your licenses go unused, and sell them to the highest bidder; at the same time, before your boat can go out again, you MUST buy licenses for the fish you catch.  And all catches are 100% retained. 

For that, then, the Canadians are using a market to handle the violations (which is good), but they have no way of verifying cheaters without MRV.  Therefore, they offer the fishermen two options:  Pay for a government agent on your boat who records everything, and video-record everything from multiple angles, and pay for a government audit later.