Chris,
Excellent interview. Mr. Howe has clearly identified an interesting pattern based on a lot of work that bears consideration. I also respect the fact that he really has done some homework on the economy and understands a lot of the issues, economically, that are creating the current tremors and quakes in the global markets.
However, Mr. Howe said several things that seemed kind of tossed off, or he assumed to be fact, when they actually are concerning and worthy of a deeper analysis.
1) Millenials are living at home more. Isn't that great? They really must like their parents. At least that's what they're saying in surveys.
No, it's not great. A) they can't afford to move out because they either have no job or a crappy job at Starbucks, and can't afford rent or afford a house downpayment and monthly payments, B) thanks to the wonders of Obamacare, able-bodied adults up to age 26 now get free healthcare simply by living at home with their parents (who might actually, maybe surprisingly to Mr. Howe, want to have a life post child-rearing), C) If I were getting room, board, healthcare, parking, and who knows what else I'm getting from my parents, I would hopefully be favorably disposed to my sugar-daddy.
So no, Mr. Howe, I think this is a bad development, not a good development that so many kids are living at home into their adulthood rather than move out and have a truly independent life. One doesn't grow until one has to face, and overcome, obstacles. That's true across generations whether you're a Prophet, Nomad, whatever. That said, I think there are important benefits of being close emotionally and perhaps geographically to your extended family.
2) We're going to have to learn how to cozy up to important government officials in the future to get more of what we want. If this is true, we are going down a worse rathole than we already are in. It sounds more like Mr. Howe thinks we're moving to be more like corrupt, and failing, China than what we were in the best days of the U.S. The size and scope of government is crux of the current problem. The solution is not to have more government influence and more need to rely on government officials. The solution is to shrink the government back to a Constitutional size and scope, meaning minimal need for "cozy up to the government".
I think in contrast to what Mr. Howe appears to think, I that the failure of the collusive (or fascist as some define it) system between the government and markets, operating to the detriment of average citizens and Main Street, is upon us and will lead to pain and suffering of an unknown but probably large magnitude. And this is likely to lead to a collapse of these wonderful government and financial systems, in a process that may leave a skeleton of the government behind, but a weak and crippled government at best. And one that will not be able, even it wants to, to provide the glorious benefits that Mr. Howe thinks we need to able to cozy up to.
3) Mr. Howe, again through some utopian and unrealistic lens he seems to be peering through, appears to diminish the power and prosperity that follows when individualism is allowed to flourish and instead focuses on how especially the Millenials are going to come together and rebuild a great collectivist society with giant "Sims" databases that will take care of all of our needs.
After the reset, I truly hope that Millenials learn the failures of collectivism and centralized planning and power, and rediscover the principles laid out by the Founding Fathers, and understand both the impossibility (and arrogance) of the idea that a few people or a computer program can predict and provide all the wants and needs of 300 million people simultaneously, and the dangers of abuse that concentrating power in a small number of people intrinsically creates. Small, powerful, effective government providing things like infrastructure and standards, and information gathering and publishing- Yes! Massive taxing to redistribute money based on some semi-arbitrary possibly corrupt formula, telling citizens how to think and live, promoting one special interest group over another special interest group- No!
That being said, I agree with idea of having more well-connected communities, which is one of the best natures of people. But Mr. Howe, and perhaps Chris are missing a key ingredient of successful communities. The community contract is that individuals in the community start from a position that they will work hard as individuals to take care of their own needs, and these needs and the needs of their family are their primary responsibility. Accessing the community is only a secondary support for this fundamental responsibility, and any knowledge-sharing, surplus sharing, temporary safety-net activities go with the expectation that the individual will do all in their power to take of themselves.
Strong communities start with strong individuals, not the other way around. Mr. Howe may disagree with or may not realize, but one of the most pressing problems in America right now is the "gaming of the system" by everyone from disability recipients to billionaires. The suckers are the ones that play by the rules and are honest, and are becoming the minority.
The law of balances in nature says this cannot continue forever, or as Margaret Thatcher once said, "the problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of someone else's money". Mr. Howe surely sees the need for a society built on a foundation of individuals who make their own money from their own work and creative ideas.
Finally, I worry about two little flies in the ointment of these cycle theories. 1) We seem to be having an amplification effect of how bad successive crises are during the Fourth Turning, in no small part to technology gains. The last 4th turning crisis was WWII if I understand things, which was unlike any event in human history in terms of its destruction and death. It does not give me comfort that our technology, and I don't just mean weaponry but also cyber and biological warfare, is much more powerful than during WWII, so a true WWII-like event will not be just a little speedbump that we skip over and resume the First Turning merrily along, Sims database building and all. Second, I'm not sure how Mr. Howe views event like the Dark Ages which were centuries long over much more than one "seculum" (sp?). I realize that was over a thousand years ago, but in the sweep of history, it was very recent. Just some honest questions that are from one person's views.