Sofistek,
I am not saying that fossil fuels will last forever. Also, I do understand the exponential functions quite well It is quite obvious that perpetual growth on a finite planet is not possible. The only question that I am asking is if 2008 is the year when peak energy was reached. I do understand that implications of this are quite catastrophic on the civilization in its current form. It seems to me that Natural Gas will sustain energy demands at least for some time. Will this be sufficient enough to carry out changes to the structure of economy and the structure of civilization itself so as to be less energy intensive? If natural gas does not reach peak production for a couple of decades then there may still be some time to avoid a complete collapse. Experts such a Vaclav Smil suggest that there is some time still available:
http://books.google.com/books?id=2UM6KSEMoLUC&printsec=frontcover&dq=energy+at+crossroads
I think it is relevant to ask these questions and to be a skeptic considering the dire forecast of an imminent collapse of civilization. The book that I mention above does provide a lot of obective information and arguments. It will be interesting if someone in this list has read Smil’s book and has arguments that refute the claims in the book regarding timing for peak energy/ peak natural gas. Again, Smil is not arguing that energy available will grow forever. He suggests that before a collapse happens due to peak energy, there is a greater danger due to environmental damage, specifically CO2 concentration. However such a collapse may still be many years away.
All I am looking for is a stronger argument for the collapse due to peak oil that is assumed to have been in 2008. Chris may well be right but for any immediate and drastic action to be taken by majority of individuals, more convincing arguments and information in public domain will help. It is certainly difficult for a large number of individuals here (in India) to pay in USD to access the information.
BTW, I agree that it will help to purchase one report at a time, especially for overseas customers.
Regards,
-Aniruddha