Post-Coronavirus: Getting 'Back To Work' Won't Be Easy

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I submit it is reckless to continue the lockdown, when it has already achieved its stated purpose of flattening the curve.
We were told we should all stay home. Businesses were ordered to close. Millions lost their jobs. All to avoid overwhelming the emergency services. Well, that has been achieved. Except in a few hot spots such as NYC, hospitals are not even at capacity. Flattening the curve does not alter the area under the curve. i.e. the number of deaths does not change - only the timing.
The projected death rate is now proven to have been grossly overestimated. Even counting every death in hospital as a Covid death, the numbers have been nothing like the scary numbers we were told at the beginning.
Since the Covid-19 coronavirus is a novel virus and nobody has any antibodies or resistance, eventually we are all going to be infected. So, given that there is no guaranteed cure and no vaccine in the foreseeable future, what exactly are we achieving by cowering at home? We are delaying the date at which we become infected. That is all.
For the very old and those with pre-existing health problems, that might translate into a prolongation of life and is therefore worthwhile. However, for the young and healthy with a small risk of death, self quarantine is pointless. They should get back to work ASAP.
The damage to the economy is already incalculable. the results of the lockdown will resonate for years. Many, many businesses will never re-open. Major industries such as tourism, restaurants, airlines and cruise ships will probably take a decade or more to recover, if they survive at all.
It is becoming more and more obvious that there is a political motive behind the lockdown. Politicians are using fear to increase government control. But I suspect that they have overplayed the fear card. All talk about ’saving lives’ by continuing the lockdown is just talk. As previously discussed lives won’t be saved. At best the onset of illness might be delayed. At the same time, people are delaying treatment on other serious illness because they are afraid to go to the hospital.
Most politicians have never had a proper job. Almost none have even the slightest idea what it takes to run a business. They don’t even vaguely understand how a month without sales and the resultant negative cash flow can mortally wound a small business. I imagine they believe that after they declare the lockdown over, everything will just go straight back to normal; whereas millions of small businesses will have gone for good, taking the dreams and life savings of their owners with them. More and more people, deprived of their income, their job or both are becoming very angry and dissatisfied.
The sooner the government gets out of the way and allows us to make up our own minds about how to handle the situation, the better.
22

My comments:
Mandeep’s Hospital has a very close relationship with Gilead (being first to try Remdesivir). I doubt they just “thought” Remdesivir was bias the result (pretty sure they tested it). In my opinion, the results for Remdesivir were negative (given the comment that the “drug was given selectively and compassionately”). HCQ was also given selectively… Also, how do T. Fauci’s comments relate to a medical research paper variable selections?
Besides the massive flaws, the stats in the analysis are quite insightful in terms of:

  1. BMI / Age
  2. COPD / Heart conditions
  3. Race (Asian = -30% / Black&Hispanic = +40%)
  4. Statins / ACE-Inhibitors (author's theory) - although these would be highly correlated with other variables in the study (eg. BMI).
Interview http://www.francesoir.fr/opinions-entretiens-societe-sante/interview-exclusive-mandeep-mehra-lhydroxychloroquine-pas-efficace [TRANSLATED w/ GOOGLE] FS = New Paper FranceSoir | MM = MD Mandeep Mehra
FS: You came to this study from a cardiovascular point of view when there are other drugs which are being examined in the treatment of Covid 19. Why did you not include them in your study? For example, why was Remdesivir not included? MM: We excluded Remdesivir after observing that we only had 276 patients with this drug and we thought it would bias the analysis because this drug was only given selectively and compassionately at the time- the. In addition, the study initiated by NIAID on Remdesivir was in progress. The results of this study published today show a low impact on mortality and a shorter recovery time , which had been announced by Tony Fauci for several weeks. As a result, we removed Remdesivir. FS: Do you have the data for Remdesivir? MM: Yes, we have the data, but the number of patients is too small for us to be able to conclude in one way or another. ... MM: With 276 patients on Remdesivir, this is too low to allow us to test all the factors and criteria. But that said, yes, we could look at r.  
 
23

Rather than publish twice I refer to a rough translation from an interview on BFM tv - a French information channel.
My only goal on this blog is to help with what I can do - partly out of a selfish desire to find a solution to this mess before a vaccine is imposed upon us.
I live in France, but my opinion, which may surprise you - I feel that the solution can only come from the USofA - at least for France - or alternatively to further distance ourselves from the American Way - from what we used to call Capitalism.
 
https://peakprosperity.com/forum-topic/hydroxychloroquine-vs-the-globalist-deep-state/page/24/#post-566630

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So now in France they halted the administration of HCQ, justifiable? Result of big pharma lobby?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexledsom/2020/05/26/france-says-no-to-prescribing-hydroxychloroquine-after-lancet-study/#2ca2cc9a24b5
 

25

Well you are getting your wish. Lockdowns are ending.
Yes the projected death rate was probably overestimated, yet it was a great bit worse than the flu, so far. I don’t think we will know the true numbers for quite some time. There is likely to be at least one more wave and there is no telling if and when it will ever be gone or an effective vaccine becomes available. I think you and many others focus entirely on death rates and ignore the damage SC2 can cause to major organs which may be permanent. Flu “season” generally runs 8 months.We are 4 months into this pandemic. We have a long way to go.
You use a great deal of emotionally charged language which is fine if backed up by facts. Some of the statements you make are not verifiable. Such as “there is a political motive behind the lockdown”. One might say as Rahm Emannuel said “never let a good crisis go to waste” but to state that the governors are using this for political motives is a stretch and I would need to hear what those motives are. The statement “most politicians never had a proper job” is pure hyperbole. I have no idea what a “proper job” is. I also have not idea if that statement has any validity at all. You also say politicians have no idea about how this is affecting people and how there is a huge loss of revenue. Again hyperbole and in my view not true. They are quite well aware of loss of revenue which is why they are opening up. State and local governments are losing vast amounts of tax revenue. https://www.marketplace.org/2020/04/14/local-governments-lose-tax-revenue-covid19/
If you google tax revenue lost to Covid 19 you will come up with 164,000,000 entries.
I don’t think you can blame all of this on the governments. We are dealing with something we have not dealt with in over 100 years. Was/is it being mismanaged? Yes in some ways and in some places. People like to point to Sweden but the numbers in Sweden are not very good. Sweden is sacrificing its elderly and immigrant populations and still the economy is not doing great. My leading indicator for the global economy is the BDI. It is near its lowest point in 5 years and shows little sign of going up.
Some businesses and jobs are going away and that is a tragedy. My wife shut her business down 2 months ago. She had to because of the lockdown but though she is able to now she isn’t. We take this very seriously which brings me to the last thing you said. “The sooner the government gets out of the way and allows us to make up our own minds about how to handle the situation, the better.”
I have posted far too many times here on this and maybe some have missed it and some are tired of hearing it. Disclaimer; I am no fan of any government. That said the average IQ of Amerikaans is 98. That is not very high and is even more worrisome when you consider half of those are less than that. US high schools GRADUATE in any given year up to 25% of its students who are functionally illiterate. Critical thinking has been largely replaced by mythological, magical thinking. People are out on the streets ranting about a constitution they probably never read. Shopkeepers are being threatened and assaulted for requiring customers to wear a mask. (The Czech Republic lowered its R0 to .8 by requiring everyone to wear a mask in public). I posted a video of a Costco shopper who refused to wear a mask and had his cart taken away and asked to leave the store.
You offer no quidelines for how to reopen. This is a pretty glaring omission. Chris posted a video of a company in China which has been open since Feb. In the video the supervisor outlines the procedures they are required to go through to be in operation. They are rational and effective. I truly wish, you have no idea how I wish. that average Amerikaans would be able to enact and adhere to similar protocols. I am betting the farm that is not possible. The following article touches on some of the problems. https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-united-states-vulnerable-pandemic/608686/.
There are no easy solutions. But as a member here since 2008 I am sure you are well prepared and resilient. I am sure you knew a Black Swan event was coming. Yes we will all rub elbows with SC2. I for one would like to see everyone do the thoughtful, rational compassionate, charitable things to keep others safe. Being a realist I understand that is unlikely to happen.
 

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Well, that doesn’t work if each of us has a different idea of how to handle the situation. The lockdown may have flattened the curve but completely opening up will simply get the trajectory back to one which overwhelms heath systems. That the vast majority of us will eventually contract the virus is not the same as letting it run rampant, since an overwhelmed health system will result in far more deaths than a slow burn progression, where health systems do not get overwhelmed. Deaths, in an overwhelmed system would include deaths from other causes, which couldn’t be treated in time or optimally, not just deaths directly from Covid-19 (and there would be more of these, also).

27

SARS Cov2 uses same mechanism as HIV to evade the immune system, down regulates MHC antigens … Makes a vaccine less likely, the research also mentions chloroquine increasing MHC expression making it easier for the immune system to find infected cells: article link: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.24.111823v1

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Chris, all I know is Hydroxychloroquine, w/z-pack and zinc works. I remember coming across this drug from way back when I heard of this virus back in January. I was talking to my wife about this before the hospital even opened their first unit with my wife running this unit. I was surprised and happy that this drug was used exactly as you have taught here. I would take it right now if I knew it had a lasting effect just like Trump has done. Why these knuckleheads don’t get it or don’t want to get it is because of greed, the almighty dollar.
An aside: I believe a major cash give away is near, we must keep the delusion alive and make sure the consumer spends and keeps everything afloat. We will get a monthly check and hero’s pay are my thoughts and whatever else is necessary to make the consumer whole again. We shall see but it will happen soon.
Seeing the video you showed and the “Honey Badger” reference gave me a nice chuckle, I enjoyed it and felt good for you guys.
All I care about is food, clothing, shelter and heat. The land will provide all that I need, I just know it. All I need is a stipends, and cash set aside for taxes. Back in the great depression it was the good farmers who lost it all because they couldn’t pay the land taxes. That will not happen to me…Folks, I apologize that I haven’t download the information or stats from the hospital. I respect my wife work place, we don’t know if we can exchange these managerial memo’s so I won’t. I can only express what I’ve observed and read. In our hospital we have only 8 patients with covid19. That is a far cry from when we started and for which we are very happy. I have worried every day for my Lady’s health and being supportive is all I can do plus to take care of our home so when she comes back at the end of the day she is safe to just talk of her day or kick back and say nothing. Be safe, all of you. I’m with Chris, I am never catching this Virus and will wait to relax when a vaccine comes along so I will not change our pattern. Thank God we go up to our property every weekend. There we get to roll around and get things set up. This weekend I add the minerals to a huge plot that will be our garden of the future. I put in manure and compost last week. It will take me two years to get the soil dancing with worms and bugs in the soil. I love turning the garden soil that nice rich look. it lust looks so great when wet. I am blessed with sandy loam, so easy to spade and turn over. I plan a cement block that shouldn’t leach its chemicals in the soil. I’ll use these blocks because the wood rots to quickly and could have chemicals in them. I will go raised beds except for strawberry’s. I made large cages for them out of cedar (100x4) with a swing up door to keep all birds and critters out and we lift these to get at the strawberry’s. I use a cedar stick to hold open the doors. Be well Folks…Peace

29
I would take it right now if I knew it had a lasting effect just like Trump has done.
Ok, I'm confused. When taking HC, is there a certain time period of taking it or is it used prophylactically, or do you take it when you first think you have the virus, then stop when you start getting symptoms? I don't understand Trump's comments about being almost done with the treatment.
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https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32344449/

31

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30296-6/fulltext

32

Expanding on the link that Mohmmed Mast just put up and citing one basic science source article where the effective dose of hydroxychloroquine was found:

PREP: 800 mg loading dose followed by 400 mg twice or three times weekly. (This is for long-term steady state prevention.) PEP: 800 mg loading dose followed in 6 hours by 600 mg, then 600 mg daily for 4 more days. (This is for a short-term course, after contact with a known sick person. This was probably what Trump was doing as he had staff members who were diagnosed positive.) --------------------

Hydroxychloroquine, a less toxic derivative of chloroquine, is effective in inhibiting SARS-CoV-2 infection in vitro

.... In animals, both drugs (CQ and HCQ) share similar tissue distribution patterns, with high concentrations in the liver, spleen, kidney, and lung reaching levels of 200–700 times higher than those in the plasma10. It was reported that [the customary human dose] ("safe dosage ") of 6–6.5 mg/kg per day of HCQ sulfate could generate serum levels of 1.4–1.5 μM in humans11. Therefore, with a [customary] safe dosage, HCQ concentration in the above tissues is likely to be achieved to inhibit SARS-CoV-2 infection.
The usual Lupus and Rheumatoid arthritis dose is about 200-300 mg twice daily. This dose should give the needed tissue levels that Liu et al found inhibited SARS-CoV2 growth in cell culture experiments.
33
I believe a major cash give away is near, we must keep the delusion alive and make sure the consumer spends and keeps everything afloat. We will get a monthly check and hero's pay are my thoughts and whatever else is necessary to make the consumer whole again. We shall see but it will happen soon.
While at the start I agreed with you, I think that is no longer the case. The Fed's actions have been entirely about protecting the stockholders and the Market. Mitch McConnell in the Senate doesn't seem to care one bit whether the "People" survive this or not. In fact the more we go into debt the better. Massive unemployment has reversed and wiped out any small gains that working class people had for job benefits and pay raises. You see that in the emails that Chris has posted of companies telling their workers "We cut your pay and you should be happy you have a job". Also much of Wall Street is discovering this crisis is a once in a generational opportunity to profit. Now that corporations and the 1% have gotten over their panic, through massive infusions of government cash, that by the way, they won't have to pay back, the working class tax payer will, many on the Right have now turned to carrying about the deficit and talking about spending cuts. I also think that many Republicans, especially those at the top level are starting to worry that Trump isn't going to get reelected. They are going to start playing the "Let's make this crisis worse, so that the incoming Democrat Administration inherits something so bad, nothing they can do will prevent us from using it for the 2024 midterms". I also think Pelosi and the Democrats are scared of actually fighting dirty against the Republican effort to tank the recovery. They keep asking for meaningful measure to help the working class, then sabotaging it with things that have nothing to do with this crisis. Followed by folding when the Republicans say no. All that together makes me doubt we will see any really useful amount of additional money from the government until after January of 2021 and the Democrats win both the Senate and the White House. Neither of which are certain. Bottom line, we are on our own here, while a sizable minority is all set to almost guarantee a second wave in the next few months. ADDED: To further the argument I think top Republicans like McConnell believe that Trump won't get reelected and their best strategy is to wreck the economy before the Democrats get in, read this article. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/05/27/mconnell-strangles-states-so-much-quick-recovery-trumps-re-election/ Not saying that all Republicans are this cynical but some of these people make me think I'm living in a "Buffy the Vampire Slayer" episode and the hellspawn have taken over.
34

End the lockdown?
Sure.
When everyone can have access to HCQ!

35

dtrammel,
In simple terms, I think Trump was taking a two week course because he had potentially been exposed to the virus and wanted to avoid contracting it, or to hit it early during the average two week incubation period.

36

I live at Bondi Beach in Sydney Australia, cafes and restaurants are opening (with fewer tables further apart), people are walking around in greater numbers reminiscent of January 2020. Maybe 1 in 200 wearing a mask. Despite the messages at shops and supermarkets, the social distancing mojo is present, but looking quite relaxed. It’s winter, but was a lovely sunny day today, so many people were keen to leave their kennels.
Schools started back last week and already my local high school has closed after a suspected case was identified yesterday. This is going to be very interesting. The complacency I’m seeing suggests a big disconnect, the next 3 weeks are going to be very interesting to watch. Will we be able to return to a life more recognisable or not?

37

The complacency in Australia is probably due to the run of low numbers of new cases. Here in New Zealand, I see the same, though numbers are even better here (14 of the last 17 days have seen no new cases, with only 1 on those other 3 days and one of those was likely a recovered cases diagnosed late). It’s easy to believe that, right now, there is no virus circulating in New Zealand. We’re still going to stay in Alert Level 2 for another couple of weeks, though, to make sure but I doubt people are taking the restrictions too seriously, apart from those that would be obvious.
The complacency worries me because, at some point, we’ll start opening the borders again and the virus will start creeping in. I haven’t heard of any plan to slow the spread of the virus when that happens and any renewed lockdown will be hard to impose, nor would that be economically sound. We’d need to mandate the use of masks (along with a strong education campaign, as I’ve seen so many people with attrocious mask wearing habits in other countries, even health workers) allied to some social distancing and limited gatherings but haven’t heard of any government plans along those lines. Thankfully, though masks have never been recommended here, they haven’t been discouraged either, so there is a possibility of a policy change by claiming that the science now balances towards the benefits side. Let’s hope so.
If immunity through infection or vaccine turns out to be problematic, though, I haven’t a clue what societies will eventually look like. Perhaps there will be regular waves of infection which kill less and less until only the least susceptible people or naturally immune people are left.

38

Tram, I have a new doctor because my last one wouldn’t assure me she would ok this treatment. My new doctor supports my decision 100%. Tram, all I know is that if positive you are sent home, isolate and watch your symptoms. You do not necessarily get the shot at this time as most recover by isolating (confusing to me). This is the point my new doctor will prescribe these drugs for me at my request. For most they will go home and wait. I think as Chris does that the earlier the better and this is my red line to treatment. I have no clue why Trump said what he said. I think maybe he got tested positive and is a secret. It made no sense to me either. no sense. All I know is you take HDQ by mouth, it’s a pill and treatment is 5 days? This I will find out when I talk to my doctor for the first time in person. I do not want to comment further until I find out for sure how all of this is going to work out after I talk this over with my doctor.

39

Tram, we are not thinking the same at this point. NO WAY does either party wish to stop the consumers spending on anything. The good Folks are waiting for help and the consumer is the economy so they better not screw them twice, the crisis of 2008 and now. For many reason’s neither party will want to put the economy in a nose dive. It would be better to have to much than not enough. Trump gets elected on the rise in the stock market. The consumers confidence will remain high so long as they have money coming in and their retirement accounts are gaining in value giving them the perception they will get to even and more. They have not been disappointed as I can see.
I see $2400 again and hero’s pay, no if’s, and, or buts. Soon too. Once the checks that have been given out have been spent, then the next one better be in the mail.
Summers make for the perfect climate for riots historically and I don’t think in the Hot, Humid months that anyone who has been stripped bare of their income because of this Virus will handle the pressure of this to well as we go through the summer. There’s a lot of unemployed people (usually the less than affluent) sitting on their porches doing nothing but drinking and bitching! Plus these Folks are hearing they will soon be evicted from their homes as has been reported lately especially when they were told that if we isolate and camp out at home all winter that things will turn around. This is a pressure cooker environment and it will get really steamy are my thoughts before it all explodes. Not a good thing so throw cash at it. It will cost way more if you don’t so isn’t worth the risk.
Now, send a cop car to their homes to tell them to hush up! Man, that is the atmosphere for extreme violence. I don’t like the police in environments like this, I have seldom seen a good outcomes when the cops intrude on a Man’s right to have a few drinks at his homes porch. I’m NOT dissing police but they do go to places like this with an attitude and while everything is loud it’s under control because everyone is bitching, all this Man’s friends and neighbors. The cops are there to tell the Folks to shut up…please!.. so that won’t go well. Hopefully This won’t be allowed to happen. Throw cash at it, it will cost much more if the cops intrude on that situation for sure.
Mnuchin, Powell, Pelosi and Trump need the economy to stay the course, get Folks back to work and GET THE VACCINE that makes this exponentially better. We’ll see Brother but it’s coming in my opinion. They will pacify whomever they have too.
I know many here believe we are going into Inflation but their aren’t enough Folks spending yet to chase the to few goods. Deflation will be around through 2021 for certain are my thoughts. I don’t see very high Inflation for a good while. I heard Hyperinflation back in 2008 and it never really happened, we had subdued inflation except for food and things we eat and consume the most but it was in the packaging. A big box of Kellogg’s cornflakes was 20% less content, that sort of inflation that the consumers felt. Gas or oil will never allow inflation to really cook until the reserves are back to norms and then we have all that production taken off line. So no, no inflation for a while. This is all a guess, of course. I never get everything right.
Tram, I look in very short time horizons so I don’t mute what is happening just in front of me. My goals are to survive one year and from that point on I have completed my 7 years goals. No debt, everything will be 7 years in the making, I understand how most things work. the experimenting has refined, my gardening skills, maintenance of trees, future trees from propagation so if one dies I have another orchard planted and ready for picking. I replant where the trees got injured and dies. I have not spent a dime on trees since my first batch were grown and producing successfully. From these tree’s scrubs, bushes, etc… I have propagated exact clones so I get exactly what I want. I have planted many Willow trees as borders and shade and their so easy to propagate and grow so fast. That is good news for me. All it was was work and that’s fun.
Tram, I respect everyone, I have learned something if just a bit from every comment the good Folks have made here. For me, it’s the cheapest best little site out there for the money. I like the diversity. I am not feeling like a tribe member for that is reserved for close family and friends. I tribed all my life and I know what it means so for those who never lived having a tribe then you good folks gravitate towards one. I have a great source of help from unselfish and hard working Folks. I maintain this relationship by sending everyone a giant food basket, great fruits and berries, and sometimes jars of things as a reminder at Christmas time that they are always welcome to join us, party and even enjoy our yearly fireworks show we have during the 4th of July week when my Lady and I spends 12 days at “THE ROOST”, this is the name my Lady named our place when we first bought our property and when we built our chicken coup and 8 hens (layers). We want visitors who enjoy going back to their roots, do a little work while their there, carve their names in the trees or play whiffle ball in our little field of dreams where fences were put up so the kids could hit a 200 foot homer and we all get excited. Run the bases and are happy when grandpa can hit the fences too after pointimg like the Babe to centerfield! This was our long range plan and because of the gift of time was able to build it all up planning for our Cabin being built this year and next. Be good Tram, I don’t have all the answers but I know what direction I’m going and I wish everyone their peaceful place. Peace…PS: I don’t want to debate this but Trump isn’t afraid at all of Biden because that knucklehead is going to bury himself. He’s an idiot of that I have no doubts. So Trump will win’s, keeps the Senate and I hope upon all hope takes the House. Pelosi has to go bye, bye. So, checks in the mail and the economy will be so much better by November that Trump might get a mandate victory if it does.