Robert Rapier: The Scientific Challenges to Replacing Oil with Renewables

Heffe, I don’t know what makes you think collapse needs promoting…  it will occur with 100% certainty, the only thing no one can be certain of is when, though I suspect now it will take several decades to pan out.
I don’t think anyone here promotes collapse, rather we promote the end of profligate waste (as you point out much food is wasted) and the start of voluntary austerity.

Austerity is NOT collapse.  Some people might think that having to do without their cars and plasma TVs will be the end of the world, but I happen to think it will be the start of a better life.

In the end, thermodynamics will get us with all the other energy tips you mention in your post.  Low ERoEI is THE killer.

Remember this from the CC?  It shows how much energy has to go into making ANY low ERoEI energy producer, be it solar or anything else… remember that red curtain coming down…?

You see, we might well realise a substantial amount of renewable energy supply (I run our entire house on solar http://damnthematrix.wordpress.com/2011/09/04/the-power-of-energy-efficiency/ but we do so because we use sweet bugger all energy…

AND we got in early before the oil cliff has us by the short and curlies, because let’s not forget, EVERYTHING labelled "alternative energy" is 100% made with fossil fuels!

I also urge you to read and DIGEST http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2011/10/the-energy-trap/

Mike

 

[quote=Damnthematrix]Where on Earth do you live Joe…  here in Australia you would have people falling over themselves to sell you a solar system!
Mike
[/quote]
Well send them my way!!! I’m in New England, where we’ve had 2 major power outages from storms in less than 3 months. I went without power for a week the 2nd time around. We had a run on generators and I’m guessing that a lot of people, especially those with deeper pockets have been calling solar installers after the 2nd outage. But I’ve got a quote in hand from one installer and will just have to work with them.

The notion that we are only scratching the surface of what’s possible, as heffe, seems to think, is simplistic. There are all sorts of factors involved. Like how we feed our soils, rather than just extracting from them (with fossil fuel based fertilisers needed to replace just a fraction of what we mine). Like how much wind energy we can safely extract. Like how much energy, in general we can safely divert from natural energy systems (it’s worth noting that all of the solar energy that hits the earth and is retained, is used in supporting life and natural energy flows, currently). Renewable energy systems aren’t free, nor do they use zero resources or only resources that one might regard as extremely far away fom peak.Energy is just one element of our combined predicament and even an impossible miracle of continuing to grow our energy use would leave a huge number of other issues that will need to be addressed. Predicaments only have responses, not solutions. Those responses will get harder to make, the longer we leave it. Collapse is bound to happen. If we want it to happen in a controlled way, that has the least negative impact for us humans, then we need to start acting now. That looks unlikely, at best. So get prepared.

There is a commonly held belief that the world’s supply of
oil will last until about 2040. A growing number of senior
oil industry geologists and analysts are starting to challenge
this belief publicly. They believe that it is grossly optimistic,
and dangerously misleading. Their views are being published in
reputable industry periodicals like World Oil, and the Oil &Gas
Journal. The new oil find, called Havis, could hold between 200
million and 300 million barrels of oil equivalent.

Oil Future

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