Yes, now it’s time to discuss the origin of the shot that hit the hydraulic pipe from the telehander.
At first glance, if we draw a line from the impact point on the hydraulic pipe back toward Trump, the trajectory suggests, just like @sonjax6 mentions, a strange origin. However, we’re no longer at the beginning of this investigation. Much like a Sudoku puzzle, we’ve already filled in many key details through previous analyses, and we can now use that information to evaluate this shot more accurately.
So let’s attempt to solve the “Sudoku” of the bullet that struck the hydraulic pipe.
Thanks to the video provided by @daniel59, we can clearly see that Shot 3 is the one that impacts the hydraulic pipe.
According to @Sonja’s analysis, the bullet appears significantly larger (0.3") than the caliber used in Crooks’ AR-15, ruling out that weapon.
Additionally, Shot 3 doesn’t produce any echo, which could suggest a closer or more enclosed origin. Based on this, one possible explanation is that Shot 3 originated from a vent in ARG Building 6?.
That covers what we know from the impact side.
Now, turning to the origin side, we’ve recently identified that a shot captured on the official Butler police body cam corresponds to the same Shot 3, coming from Vent 1.
Theoretically, if we connect Vent 1 to the hydraulic pipe impact point, we should have the bullet’s trajectory. But as @sonjax6 points out, this trajectory doesn’t align with the evidence — it seems inconsistent. Does this mean something is already wrong with our evaluation? Maybe not.
Let’s take another more detailed look.
If we forward-trace the trajectory from Vent 1 in the direction of Trump, it actually aligns precisely with the position of Corey Comperatore at the time when Shot 3 was fired.
Reviewing the footage, we can confirm that unfortunatly Corey remained in that same position during shots 1 - 3, placing his head directly along the trajectory from Vent 1 to Trump. This implies the bullet was slightly deflected to the left — just enough to miss Trump — and instead passed through a newly discovered hole in the banner before striking the hydraulic pipe.
This theory remains open for discussion, but it fits all the available evidence and effectively “solves the Sudoku”: all the known data points support this proposed trajectory.