I redid my calculations after reading your message and to make a long story short, the WTAE video I have linked at the bottom starts according to my calcs at 17:06:46,449, thus supporting your timeline.
Updated my timeline document per these calculations. As per this timeline, Crooks shows up at 17:06:51, almost 17:06:52. He turns around at 17:06:25 and walks towards the west.
That’s what we have to find out. Was he the lone gunman as presented?
If he wasn’t, who helped him to do it? If it wasn’t him at all, who did it instead?
Yeah, lots of info got released about Crooks within 24hrs.
Purchase of 50 rounds? And also the ladder?
The authorities were sure fast to release that to the general public…
But in all reality, how many rounds were on his body & backpack? How many mags? Have we heard? I certainly cant recall hearing that info.
I’m afraid all the backstory will be forever lost - just like his corpse - turned into ashes.
The only chance is if Trump can actually gain the White House - but even then it will be a slow journey.
I’m just thankful they immediately released the information that he was a Republican. This investigation would’ve been completely stalled had it not been for that critical part of the puzzle being solved.
I would go with AAR building numbers, but Chris uses actual building numbers in his videos. For sake of simplicity I can change it to AAR names if that is what people want.
The differences in times was already in the timeline document. I was considering creating a whole list of timelines as discussed earlier, but I am running out of time and am kept busy updating the document. Perhaps someone else can create a reference I can copy over into my Word document.
Previously I only scanned the article and did not see the 09:30 time. Updated timeline with additional information from this article.
Either NYT or the FBI is wrong about this time. It seems some of the times was according to geolocated information, but interesting enough, the NYT mentions that it came from ‘one of his cellphones’. Did Crooks have multiple Cellphones? And why?
For Elvis in Crooks’ video I have no sound, so I chose the time where Elvis’ mic hand disappears in bottom right corner, matched with the same in music video (1:30). Crooks can be seen 7s before that.
To get the real time, I checked RSBN video when 1st shot is heard, it was 18:11:33. But as said, I deducted 1s bc in my knowledge I have no more valid info to base it on and I compromise to 32, but 33 is a stretch. Feel free to use 33 as long as we acknowledge 1s difference in real time is bc of that.
Then, based on that time for 1st shot I checked the time in RSBN
video when Elvis ends his song, his mic hand is fully down. The time in RSBN is 5:08:40 minus 1s for that 1s late 1st shot = 5:08:39.
In music video his mic hand is down at 3:11 mark at the end and in at 1:30 his mic hand disappears in bottom right corner: 3m11s minus 1m30s=1m41s.
5:08:39pm minus 1m41s=5:06:58 << That’s the time when Elvis’ mic hand disappears in Crooks video. Crooks appears 7s earlier=5:06:51pm. He can be seen for 33s (36s in total) before he turns towards the west: 5:06:51 plus 33s=5:07:24. It’s that 1s difference in 1st shot timing, otherwise we’d have exact same timing.
Conclusion:
5:06:5pm - 5:07:24 (+ 3s when he walks to the west= 5:07:27pm)
In my detailed analysis of the timeline while Crooks is on AGR property before he gets on the roof (still in progress) I noted issues with these AAR timeline entries.
For the sake of my analysis, I include those as support to the more accurate text message or radio communication evidence. Obviously, that’s different than a pure timeline, but I thought I would share my findings in case you haven’t caught some of these issues already. Here are my detail pages with those timestamps in red.
CORRECTION: I figured out why these AAR Timeline entries are so confusing. Attached are my corrected timeline entries. The resolution is provided in a slater post below.
17:41 - In your slide you mention Beaver County code, but the ARR states Butler. On page 15 it was stated that local counter snipers were issued a Butler Co. Radio.
17:49 - Most likely refers to the Sen. Ron Johnson entry for 17:45 where a BuC-ESU counter sniper, probably Murcko, contacted USSS. Times differ a bit, but that seems to make sense.
18:00 - Agree with your analysis
Good work on the slides! Updated timeline with information from your slides.
I found something interesting in the ABC interview. I don’t know if you saw this:
Nicole noticed rallygoers looking away from the podium, up toward the roof of the AGR building. Some were shouting that there was someone up there.
Nicol said he was almost relieved, thinking to himself, “Oh, they must have found this guy we were looking for out there, and everybody’s watching the police deal with him.”
This indicates that he was watching the rally-goers freaking out by his window. This was at 18:09:35. Sounds like Nicol was on the second floor. According to the article, after this he heard shots fired. So Nicol did nothing for the next 2 minutes.
Why did Nicol not try to get visual on Crooks? In this article he admitted that he knew Crooks was on the roof and should have known they lost sight of him via radios. Did he really just go: “Not my problem.”?!
Edit: Unless Nicol was at a different window. AGR BLDG 6?
One thing that hasn’t been addressed about the speedy bleachers, is that they have stabilization points in all 4 corners. This is not only to stabilize but also to level out the bleachers in case the floor is not perfectly flat.
You can see it very well in the following demo video:
We have been extremely conservative with adding 1 inch, because it is the strict minimum assuming you start to stabilize in the upper right corner and level it out with the other 3 corners, but since we are really taking it precisely now, we should add 2 inches instead of one.
Giving you the 4 Inches against Schroedrized but adding 2 inches instead of one for leveling out we get the following new data:
If you agree, I will integrate it into the next version 6 simulation and you can use this data for your YouTube presentation?
How about absolute floor heights, something that is always heavily discussed in this forum. What floor heights are you using?
For the bleachers you should keep in mind that the point to measure is the position of the wheels, because if you take the position of the right corner, it is approximately one foot lower. This is the big mistake many people have been making. We were fortunate to have been provided high accuracy topographical data from Land ID of which we have the following ground heights.
I would give you the nickname “Eagle Eye,” but Scottish pool professional Jason Shaw already took that.
Beaver County code number is 4, per the Detail Plan, which was a Butler County document. They assigned the county code numbers, which the AAR points out, but code 4 was assigned to Beaver.
I had that (following) FBI 5:45 pm comms included with the 17:49 AAR entry as a possible reference, but removed it because it states: “Butler County counter-sniper” and the AAR 17:49 entry clearly relates to the text message they provided to Sen, Grassley. Beaver did likely not have access to Butler comms or texts, as implied by the assumed entry: – “17:34 (approx.) – Butler Co. Sniper texts Butler Team(assumed).”
As for this, I am aware of it, but thanks for bringing it up. My timeline analysis for the activities of Crooks and Nicol while Crooks was on the AGR property, before he climbs on the roof, is being done in 3 parts. Part 2 addressed my sighting number 4 only, because it had all of those radio comms, text messages, and witness statements associated with it. There were also no body or dashcam video evidence for that period, since they all start later. Part 3 will analyze the period between the 6:02 pm sighting and the 6:05 roof access. So the information you point out applies to part 3, which I’m still in the process of analyzing.
Edit: I forgot to update the slide with my revised Sightings Map 2, which more accurately reflects when Crooks was deemed a suspicious person, or at least should have been.
I think there is a difference between Channel and Code. I disagree with no access to Butler comms, but agree with no access to Butler texts. If the ESU did not even share radio channels to command, then the whole Security detail was doomed to fail, very difficult to accept personally.
On this topic, I think we must pin down what channels Nicol had access to. Did he know Crooks was on the roof by radio or not. We can see him with a radio when he stepped out of the building, so he did not leave the radio in his overwatch room.
This is a list I currently have:
Possibly Butler 4 Command frequency (ARR). This should be the Butler issued radios that all local counter sniper teams had access to.
Local Tactical Officers Channel. Nicol spoke into this channel accidentally when he heard the Sheriffs Deputy according to WP.
(Probably the same channel as the Butler Command channel)
Channel for Local Officers, because the WP stated a transmission from Nicol set off a flurry of messages.
Sheriff’s Deputy Channel. Nicol could hear them, but they could not hear nicol according to WP
(Probably the same channel as the Local Officers channel)
In the Beaver ARR there are two channels mentioned.
Channel 4 – Butler Police ESU Command. – This is probably the same channel as stated earlier in command.
Channel 3 – Butler Police Patrol. – Unsure if this is the channel for Local Officers
In the Butler Detail Plan
Butler Police OPS 4 (Encrypted)
Edit: So we must determine how many channels Nicol likely had access to. At least 2 by my estimate. Secondly we must determine how many channels existed and that is the difficult part. Minimum 2, but can go as high as 7.
Hi Roger,
I understand that English is not your primary language, but from here forward, would you please stop using the term “floor” and use the term “ground” when referring to the elevation of any certain location on the ground. This can be very confusing when you are actually referring to the ground elevation but call it the floor elevation. As an example, you call out 1335.15 as the floor elevation at Building 6 when the floor is probably 6" higher than the ground. At the stage, we have ground level and floor level. The floor elevation is the top surface of the stage, and the ground elevation is the earth’s surface that the stage is sitting on. I don’t mean to be a nitpicker, just trying to avoid confusion.
I don’t know which numbering the majority supports but because there’s often confusion between AAR and AGR, I suggest a note on that on page one. Some AGR building numbers I couldn’t make out. Maybe somebody has more info on that?
AAR
AGR
1
6
2
?
3
3
4
2
5
?
6
?
?
?
?
?
?
9-1
?
9-2
The ones mentioned I have already verified. I’ll let you know when I’m through with the relevant body-/dashcam footage. It’s pretty time consuming, so it may take a while.
It seems he had two phones, one on site as seen in the pictures from the roof, together with the remote control. The other one they found at his home. The big question here, did he use the 2nd phone prior to the shooting (communicating with his handler?) or was it just and old phone that he had laying around at home.
WaPo article form July 16:
“Investigators are also exploring the possibility the gunman may have used two phones, after agents recovered a cellphone in Crooks’s house with a dead battery”
CBS article form July 18:
“Federal investigators seized 14 weapons, an explosive device, another cell phone, a laptop, a hard drive and three USBs from his house”
Channel versus code does not apply to that AAR timeline entry, but you are correct in needing to know what radios and channels each player had access to. In another introductory slide I try to address that. (Remember, still a work in progress.) I will have to review your detailed current list more closely. Thanks for sharing it, that would be a big help in better understanding the evidence related to radio comms…
Ain’t that the truth!