After reading and thinking over various theories let’s go back to square one, using inductive analysis, rather than deductive. The only fact we can all agree on … bullets go in a reasonably straight line. And the earlobe is an Infinitesimally small node on the line of fire. Frame by frame, Trump had cocked his head directly at the screen to his right when the bullet shock wave click hit his mic. This line of fire (solid line in photo below) lines up directly with the water tower, above and behind the screen above the bleachers. The Crooks line of fire (if accurate) would have transected the skull, surely fatal (dashed line in pic). There is something we don’t know yet. Perhaps some form of remotely controlled UAV weapon? Is this out of the range of possibility if state actors were involved.
yes, it took a little longer to come back to you due to a couple of denial of service attacks by the two people that Aaron referred to…
the bullet from that roof to Trump’s ear, the bleachers and the JCB hydraulic lift travels above (!) this unobstructed green line of sight.
I do not know how you backtrace trajectories in your application, but these pictures should speak for themselves.
if your backtracing reports something else, there is something wrong with the backtracing…
for convenience, I had selected the middle of the JCB hydraulic lift as the terminator of the bullet trajectory, but the front or the rear do not change the elevation at which the railing would be crossed/penetrated/touched.
selecting the rear of the JCB lift results in a bullet trajectory that goes through the corner of the bleachers…
in your model, that rear building is 32 feet high. in my model, the roof shooter is at 9m, so the roof is even higher in your model…
I gave you the elevations I use with respect to the sea floor…
I would not be surprised your AGR buildings are vertically off the rally area…
I really think that your backtracing uses erroneous vertical offsets and that you blindly trust the outcome of this erroneous model…
no matter which model one makes, it will never represent reality and the pictures I have pasted over the past days should speak for themselves, he…
even those of the drone footage of the Spa Guy and those that Rough country Gypsy shared yesterday confirm my observations:
Who has custody over the water tower to the right of Trump’s podium? Pennsylvania American Water is a subsidiary of American Water Works, a consolidator of water resources in the US. Their website advertises conspicuous ‘ESG’ affinity. Quoting from a their Wikipedia entry - "In 2003, American Water established the American Water Military Services Group, which partners with the Department of Defense through the Utilities Privatization (UP) Program. Through this program, the company has a 50-year contract to provides water and wastewater utility services at 18 military installations in the U.S.[[10]] "
(American Water Works - Wikipedia)
so, now that you confirm you have the information you asked me, what is the speed of sound that you have been using in your sound analysis?
thanks!
Pretty good angle, but It looks like further proof of this line of fire could be confirmed or denied. Photo shows Trump’s head position at the precise moment of shock wave impact. Look at position of torso and head. He was looking slightly behind his back, straining to read from the screen. Most importantly DJT’s head was aligned BEHIND the parallel line formed by the podium/stage. All the very impressive, complicated analysis on this thread has ignored this simple fact. ** This head orientation could make any shot too far from from the left side fatal. This obviously would rule out Crooks, and many other positions postulated on this thread. Trump’s head position and line of sight at impact needs to be subjected to analysis, frame by frame. There was a slight waggle going on just before impact. Trump is still commenting on the importance of the video monitor in saving his life.
When I first saw the Mills photograph I had the very same idea as “howdoiknowthisinfo” (Howdy for short), that a real shooter could have been placed behind the supposed patsy and his victim as long he remains on or near the line of sight.
From a perpetrators point of view, this brings an obvious advantage with respect to the relatively large uncertainities when later on small impact angles have to be determined.
Well, much has already been written about Mills and his 20+ years of association with the White House, the Emma E. Booker photograph of Bush in 2001 and so on. But it is difficult to ascribe motives and name them evidence.
Mill’s photograph has the obvious problem that even if you assume a projectile speed of 1000 m/s, the (assumed) vapor trace in the photograph is about 2.4 times as long as it should be, translating to a projectile speed of 2,4 km/s.
Apart from a complete falsification two possibilities remain: Mills had embellished his work by extrapolating the vapor trace a bit, or truly hypersonic ammunition had been used. I’ve no idea if this is possible with small arms, but it is at least not unthinkable if a sub-caliber projectile was driven by a sabot.
Because I still assumed that the inclination could be real, I downloaded the highest available resolution from the NYT (link below). Several attempts to manually correct for the perspective using the campain board as a reference left me with an horizontal inclination between 1.3° and 2.3°. The rather large error range stems from an insufficient image resolution, a pincussion distortion and a suboptimal contrast, which all induce subtile ambiguities.
But one can also determine the angle between the horizontal campain billbord and the vapor trace by simply measuring both inclinations against rectangular grid lines. In sum that results in an true horizontal inclination of 1.8°. Superposing the images and measuring the angle at once naturally led to a very similar result. I used gimp, but someone with access to photogrammetric software may please check that value.
When applying the sine theorem and the inverse sine function to calculate the inclination angles from Trump’s ear to the roof of building 6 and the more distant building “x”, I get the following figures:
a.) according to roger-knight’s hypothesis, elevation and distance estimates (AGR building 6, in feet, result in degrees):
asin((17.4-15.4)/((518-78)))*180/pi
0.2604363
b.) according to Howdy’s hypothesis, elevation and distance estimates (AGR building “x”, in meters, result in degrees):
asin((9-2.99)/237)*180/pi
1.453099
Hence, if that estimate of an inclination of 1.8° has some truth to it, then Howdy’s hypothesis might be more to the point than an implant under the roof of AGR building 6.
-------------------------
Hi-res link to NYT/Mills:
ttps://static01.nyt.com/images/2024/08/13/us/politics/13election-live-photo-assess/13election-live-photo-assess-superJumbo-v2.jpg
Doug Mills’ lens position can be calculated from the live stream published by NTD.com at the 08:51 mark. He is the photographer with the white hat and black hatband, standing a bit left from the middle of the lectern. The jpeg linked above is still a cropped version since there are also some low res reproductions elsewhere on the net, showing a vertical pole near the right rim of the image. According to Mills, upon recognizing its implications he immediately sent the raw image data to the FBI. Maybe his collegues and especially some congressmen could ask him (and the FBI) for a copy.
That is probably the time he was pronounced dead by that medic Michelle (sniper Greg’s wife), on one of the first bodycam videos. I wouldn’t read much into that time of death. It’s either the formal time of death that has to be pronounced by someone qualified or even an approximation of it.
I’m surprised he was able to achieve that cadence
I’m not
it was definitely something he would have to train, firing those 3.
1 to the head 2 to the chest is very common imo. Except from what we can tell so far, Crooks tried to send every shot to the head.
Crooks fired 3 shots in 1.5 second. From my perspective, that’s very fast.
Yeah it was really fast, which accounts for his accuracy being terrible.
Reports now say he did went to the range 43 times since August, practically once a week.
That’s more practice than average people.
People on the range would definitely notice someone training 3 quick shots at that distance. Not something worthy of a red alarm, since people train all sorts of things, but noticeable. Then again, adrenaline does make one shoot faster.
Really? Those things are that noticeable to you at the range? Only thing I notice is the hoodrats that mag dump their guns and barely hit shit.
Oh, I would notice 3-shot sequences in 1.5s at 150yards if I saw someone training this frequently, but wouldn’t think much of it either. Maybe a “this guy’s not interested in precision competition that’s for sure”
Tell me about it… oh for God’s sake… I’ve seen some bring 12 gauge shotguns to magdump on metal on the rifle range… 
hello Roger,
I gave it some additional thought, and it is very likely that your model assumes that the ground level of the green where they put the 3 bleachers, the podium and the JCB hydraulic lift are at the same level, but that is not the case at all…
that is why I showed you yesterday the ground levels of the different points I showed.
based on the height I reported for Trump’s ear and the railing you immediately deduced that it was an impossible thing to simulate, and that is exactly the wrong assumption…
the ground level of the podium is HIGHER than the ground level of the bleacher’s railing, and the ground level of the JCB lift is even LOWER than the ground level of the bleacher…
this is why the trajectories I have shown you many times already make perfect sense…
just mentioning.
Well, in post 492 roger-knights linked an advertisement video for Kay Park “Speedy Bleachers”. Therein at 1:12 “hot dipped galvanized guard rails” are mentioned, and thus the rails are presumably made of steel. This weakens your non-deflection argument to some extend. I’d tink that the magnitude of deflection mainly depends on the yet unknown impact angle, but also on projectile speed and hardness.
well, in the video I showed where they shot through 10 sheets of solid steel (total width of 1.6 inches) there was no deflection whatsoever, and the video where the grey puffy cloud is developed by the first bullet only shows a puffy cloud, no sparks, no bullet hole, etc., so the deflection must still be very minor…
but even if the deflection were major, you can see in the most recent picture I uploaded that it does not really make much difference whether the JCB lift is hit in the front, center or rear…
This trajectory misses where David and James where standing on the top row of the southern bleacher.
this is only the trajectory for the first bullet, he…
One problem in determining this as a true horizontal inclination is the angle of the photographer looking up at Trump, at an estimated 40°. What this 1.8° could be, at least in part is an inclination in depth from the photographer.
This is an important photo in verifying any modeling that is done. As for being able to determine a trajectory from this image alone has limitations.
But if that inclination in depth was substantial, wouldn’t that shift the real projectile towards cosmic velocities?
what is a cosmic velocity?
note that the rifle I am referring to as the one that was used by the real shooter on the high roof behind the roof where that man died was a sniper rifle. this means that the bullet is not a simple lightweight ar-15 bullet but something serious.
Sounds like some misinterpretation by what I mean by depth.
In this picture, the blue line is not perpendicular with the stage, There is a 2-3° inclination in the top view. This is the depth I am referring too when working with a 3D space.
Well, I’m also worried about the camera’s orientation. So what is the true horizontal on the picture?
is this the nephew of the senator that is referred to in this picture?
until now, I never heard/saw anybody mention/show/refer to this nephew!
I still do not understand what you mean by depth.
I use 4 different parameters in my model:
- latitude
- longitude
- height above the ground level
- distance between sea level and ground level
and for each of the points in my model, I have these 4 parameters.
I am in the finishing process of updating my graphs and will be able to show you the angles calculated between the horizontal plane and the two roofs we have been discussing: the roof where the man died and the roof I believe the real shooter was located