Ted Butler: The Silver Nightmare Will Be Over Soon

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Just to clarify my comments above, I think these silver prices represent an excellent buying opportunity for physical silver for those who financial situation is such that they can afford the very long term investment.  Put another way, one can "mine" silver with a few key strokes for less than what it would cost to invest a huge amount of capital into a physical mine that may or may not pay off in the future without the inherent financial risks.
How's the saying go?..Buy low and sell high.

…not buy high and sell higher.

 

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[quote=dryam2000][quote]
There's a huge difference between PM miners and PM themselves.  I would suggest that there's a good probability that several miners will go out of business because they will not be able to weather the storm of low paper prices for the metals in the short run.  Trying to pick which miners can weather the storm and which ones can't is a guessing game for most people.  In my mind, owning miners is close to gambling, and anything but "investing".  One of the main reasons people like physical PM's is that they can be under their direct control and there are no counterparty risks.
[/quote]
You're preaching to the choir here.  However, you must admit that if we are to take the fiat-collapse/Peak Everything investing thesis seriously (and I'm assuming that most people on this message board have taken something like this to heart) then one is logically going to be invested in resource stocks, although, yes, I am fully aware of the risks of PM miners.  Still, the recent carnage goes to show that no one really had a good idea how bad things could get.
My gut feeling is that when even a "macro-thesis" guy like myself is at the risk of getting shaken out we are probably near a bottom.
As far as investing based on the advice of one web site – well, I spend pretty much all of my free time following the financial markets (especially the resource space) so I'm pretty much an OCD-addled information junkie with no life.  The thing is, I've only in recent months reall gotten out of the "mom's basement" that is the PM echo chamber since it became painfully obvious that some of these "gurus" (who shall remain unnamed) have just been wrong, wrong, wrong over the past several years.  You can talk about fiat collapse all you want, and yeah, that day will probably come, but it might not be for another decade or even more and in the meantime people have to eat.  Most people aren't as diligent and obsessive as I am about information gathering and I think a lot of people really got hurt by putting too much money into PM's and then listening to the King World News crowd all the way down.

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your comments give much more to me than the podcast managed. And you have followed through with your convictions to invest in silver. To you, and all the other prudent pm investors, onwards and upwards!

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Interesting note from a German coin dealer;

http://www.goldreporter.de/german-precious-metal-dealers-report-huge-run-on-silver-coins/gold/46086/

Precious metal dealers in Germany have literally been run down after the latest slump in gold and silver. Wholesalers already expect deferred deliveries.

The latest plunge in gold and silver late last week has led to a sharp increase in demand by German precious metals investors, which also continued on Saturday. There was a particularly strong demand for silver coins. “On Thursday and Friday people had to draw numbers in order for us to control the run”, reports Andreas Heubach, CEO of Heubach Edelmetalle in Nuremberg. “On both days we sold each around 40,000 silver ounces – incredible”, he said. “Demand is back – and hysteria as well”, he evaluated.

Tremendous Run
“The run is tremendous, even today on a Saturday”, Christian Brenner, CEO of Philoro Edelmetalle GmbH in Leipzig and Berlin reports. Despite the high counter trade level in September, demand has increased by 100 percent, online-trade even soared by 300 percent.

“Run is not the right expression“, says René Lehmann of Münzland in Dresden. “We’ve seen up to 80 percent of our regular customers taking advantage of the slide to build up more positions. On those two days, on Thursday and Friday, we made approximately 50 percent of our monthly revenue”, he reports to Goldreporter. Maple Leaf (1 oz.), 1 kg Lunar and ½ oz. Great White Shark were particularly in demand, since Münzland had a special offer on them. In gold especially 1 oz. Maple Leaf and 1 oz. bars have been purchased. The ratio of buyers to sellers has generally been at 50 to 1.

The sentence I highlighted is an important point.. one I have brought up before.  Realize please that there is not broad participation in the US for PM buying.. yet I will tell you that Texas Precious Metals, which only sells what they have in stock, and had, prior to the latest smash down, everything in stock for a matter of months, is now out of stock for Maples, Phils, and some 90%.  The stress on the system now is almost completely a result of repeat buyers.. i.e. the AWAKE.  Chris stated he is in for 1000 ounces recently...  I have added as well.   

What happens when more people wake up and want some metal?  If just the small contingent of the monetarily awake can drive retail markets like this… what is to come?    

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Cognitive Dissonance wrote recently about the problem of being a "kept" person within the system.  
The simple act of holding physical silver removes one from a lot of the whipsaw effects of the big players.  It is a simple way to get outside the matrix.

Fruit trees, chickens, compost in the garden, firewood.  Neighbors who are farmers.

Life in the real world.

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Time for me to review my assumptions.

  • There will be a market in the future that will resemble the present smoke-and-mirrors show.
  • That milk comes from the corner shop.
  • That airplanes will fly in the sky.
  • That money will be cowerie shells. It's not? Since when? Memo to self: Keep up with the times.
  • That gold is money, like cowerie shells.
  • That all change is bad. (Change for the rich is usually bad, change for the poor is usually possibly good.)
What other axioms am I keeping hidden from view? To what am I blind? (Not willfully blind, but blind never-the-less.) What black ducks are waiting in the wings?

Anyhow, I have got my stash and it is collapsing, as one might expect from my brand of the Midas touch. I turn gold into lead, which is also useful in its own funny way. So now I spend up big on a nice warm dry bed. A bed that attracts no lead.

I cannot seem to keep away from the stuff. Where is my tinfoil hat? Why is it so heavy?

Edit: I have just thought of a Biggie. (Assumption).

  • That I am a victim of my reality. The physicists tell me that one is up for grabs, due to Quantum Erasure.
If that is the case then it all being MY reality- I shall mold it into something very pleasant. I dunno about the rest of you. You are all on your own journeys.

 

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as one might expect from my brand of the Midas touch.
Somewhere in the multiverse, there is an Arthur that is making a brilliant investment right now!       Note:  I do not subscribe to the multiverse, i.e. infinite universes, theory other than to use it for comedic fodder.     
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Silly Noah!  It hasn't rained for years.  Are you going to finish building that boat so far from the sea?

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http://www.silverdoctors.com/silver-analyst-who-predicted-silvers-crash-to-15-three-years-ago-says-massive-rally-coming/

Nearly 3 years ago, with silver trading near $40/oz and gold near all-time nominal highs, SD gold & silver analyst Marshall Swing shocked the PM community by warning that silver would crash to $15/oz, then rocket past $1,000/oz as fiat collapses! 
Fast forward to Oct 31st, 2014, and silver has indeed crashed to a $15 handle.  
Does the ONLY precious metals analyst who forecast silver’s crash from $50 to $15 still believe a silver moon-shot past $1,000/oz is coming along with a full-fledged fiat currency collapse?
Take heart silver investors.  The one analyst who saw this coming remains as bullish as ever:
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If my current trend in buying Silver continues you should have a chance at lower prices. I just picked up some today and it usually drops in price within a week lol. I still believe it will protect my family in the long run. Good luck everyone.

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[quote=thc0655]http://www.silverdoctors.com/silver-analyst-who-predicted-silvers-crash-to-15-three-years-ago-says-massive-rally-coming/
[/quote]
So, if silver goes to $1,000, aren't we looking at some sort of Mad Max scenario with the general populous?

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… the old adage:
"A market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

Be careful out there!

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T2h wrote:


So, if silver goes to $1,000, aren't we looking at some sort of Mad Max scenario with the general populous?

YES!  And no one wants to live in a world where silver is $1,000/oz.  And that includes people who loaded up on cheap silver in advance (including me).  But it doesn't matter what I want. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NqXNDFtWkuo Tom "Welcome to the Hunger Games.  And may the odds be ever in your favor."
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I wondered that too but when you look at Koos Jansen's numbers, and others, you see that around 3000 tons per year is imported for private individual sales in India and China alone. That is independent of all the other demand from the rest of the world. There seems to be a 2000 ton per year annual gold deficit. So the PBOC would have to cough up a lot of physical gold to keep that going, which I doubt they are willing to do as it wouldn't last long.
So, for this scam to continue on years in the future, then either the numbers we are seeing for India and China are wrong, the official mine supply totals for the world are wrong, or there is some unknown vast supply of gold flooding the market. I don't think any of those are the case. So I just sit and wait. Years ago when people were debating where the pog was going I secretly thought to myself, "wherever the planners want it to go, until the system collapses". I didn't verbalize that (I should have, then I'd be able to point to it today!) but because of this I'm not surprised by the action. The printing press still rules, so anything is possible. I envision that before the end, PM prices will totally crash. This may be indicative that we are near the end, but then, "how many times have we heard that before". I just have faith in the numbers and the fact that you can't print oil, gold, and silver, and based on this it's just a matter of time.

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I wonder how many of those repeat buyers are elites themselves. I'm sure they'd rather have small coins than big bars.

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Tom,I had almost forgotten about that movie. Thanks for jogging my memory banks.
        "Custer was a pussy!" -----Sgt. Plumley

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From Zerohedge tonight.  This is a relentless attack.  I wonder if this is the elites chance to load up before the crash?  (Good idea Mark_BC)  I believe that it is very safe to assume elites are NOT stupid, or at least that they employ some very bright thinkers to give them advice.  (And some may subscribe here to PP.)  When it comes to taking care of themselves, I am sure they are doing their best.
For me though, a second purchase tomorrow.

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gotta milk first

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[Moderator's note:  Link to YouTube video "Debt Bomb" by Dominic Frisby.  A well-made video, but also slightly lewd and adds nothing to the discussion.  Could perhaps be posted in the definitive humor thread.]

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top tip. Please let us all know when you are making your next purchase. Its all good when you buy!