I’m in somewhat the same position as Jager and Spectrabil. I’m in the process of negotiating with contractor to get a system installed. My reasoning is that my “liquid assets” are about 40% PMs and 60% cash. No securities. I’m watching the USD drop like a rock and don’t particularly want to acquire anymore PMs at the moment. Sinking that depreciating cash into a system that will provide a little income through grid tie-in, having the alt energy available in a shtf situation and putting depreciating dollars into something that isn’t going to lose value and will make my life more resilient seems the right thing to do. Plus, it’ll change my cash/PM balance more toward 50/50 which is where I want it for now.
Doug
[quote=Jager06]Bruce, thanks for the reply.
I have no intention of defaulting, $30k is not enough to break me. I simply do not have the cash right now. I am 95% PM and 5% business cash/ operating expenses. I can have it in 6 months on the outside time frame. My concern is that if we are within weeks, or a couple months…do I violate my rules about debt to gain the final bit of security?
I have backed my business debt with PMs already. So I may go for it by spending some cash to be my own Central Banker and purchasing an ounce of silver for every $1000 in debt for use in an inflationary crash.
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Jager,
If you can pay it off in 6 months AND you’re pretty sure your income is safe for that time period even in a financial crash, then it MAY be an acceptable risk. I’m not sure I’d take out any larger loans that’d take more than a year to pay off though.
I’m of a like mind with Arthur on the possibilities of the rules being changed for debt against our favor. Or perhaps more likely, if the system crashes a lot of this debt may hang in Limbo, until a decade later you get called by some government or corporate entity you’ve never heard of that says they own your debt now. Even if you actually paid it off! (You say you paid off the loan X years ago to Y company… they say they have no record of that, and you are going to have to try to prove it to their debt collection specialists and lawyers… ). Stuff like that happens now, and I see it more likely to happen (and harder to prove one’s case) with a fractured or collapsed financial system.
- Nickbert
All I can say is, never in a million years will I spend that kind of money on a solar system for our house, even if I didn’t have to borrow for it. (I might, however consider investing in a masonry heater.)
We are in much the same position that a couple of you are: lots of preparation already: no debt, garden, animals, PMs, tools, skills, community, etc., but however still tied to grid electricity. I would encourage you to look at this whole thing differently. First, a solar electric system will be nice and spanky new for awhile, but will, far far sooner than you would like, begin to break down and lose efficiency - it is a common complaint right now, while it is still easy to order new parts, panels, and labor. It will not be so easy to order, install, and repair those things later on in a chaotic society. And then there is the sustainability argument: if it needs manufacturing, thousands of miles of transport, the mining of rare earths, the technical expertise of many, and has also the predisposition to break-downs… then is it really the panacea you think it is? I say it isn’t.
Some other considerations: It is not all about taking care of yourself and yours only. You likely view it as your responsibility to do everything you can, but be careful, because others may come to view your preparations as selfish, however unfair that may be.
If the kind of breakdown in society occurs that we think will, the grid itself could easily become unreliable, which is likely one of your main reasons for wanting solar in the first place, no? You may say, “well I don’t care if it becomes unreliable because I have solar power for my laptop and lights.” I worked for years as a computer network engineer - it takes legions of skilled techs and an unbelievable, staggering amount of always-always-ON power to keep the Internet from doing Very Bad Things from a network standpoint. I ask you to think about that for a moment. What good is a powered up laptop if the Internet - the same Internet that depends completely upon that grid, itself fails?
If electricity becomes unreliable and expensive as it is likely to, most of the people in your community will NOT have solar electricity. Do you see the problems that will arise from your plan? Most of them will have to get used to going to sleep when it gets dark and reading a book or telling stories by the fire, while you… create Word documents on your laptop at home?
The retail sales numbers are a lie. They will be revised soon. Every sector but manufacturing is doing badly. I have been in a few cities around the US lately for enough time to see that main street is just hanging on. Can a sector that is 10%-15% of GDP pull us through? Or will the 85% that will crash again overwhelm the little engine? Think of Japan and the Wave.
That is it! The FED can sink Gold if it has the guts to raise Fed Fund Rate by .25%. It is a Casino!
[quote=V2]Thanks for your analysis, Chris.
To anyone: Is it worth buying one ounce of gold? Just one American Eagle. That’s all my budget can afford. Or, in that case, is it better to turn that cash into useful, durable things, i.e. canning equipment? I have some silver on the side, so not totally without PMs. Also already acquired some “things”, but could always use more. This is a difficult debate that has been raging in my head. Maybe the answer is obvious to others.
Thanks…as Chris says, it’s like the ground is constantly shifting under our feet. Very difficult to get a grasp on things.
[/quote]
V2,
No one else has answered your question so I’ll give it a shot. A single ounce of gold won’t do much one way or the other. If you have other areas that could use fortifying, put the money there. I’ve found really nice canning equipment at garage sales for pennies on the original dollar. I’ve picked up canning jars for free because the folks just wanted them out of the garage. I always like the “How To” books, regardless of what they are about. You can find all kinds of useful items that others think they’ve outgrown. I look at it as a form of mining.
Jager06,
Remember that an electric light can be seen for up to 50 miles. If the SHTF, do you really want to advertise that you aren’t in the same boat as everyone else? I can see a solar panel keeping the fridge/freezer working. That would always be a positive result. Running the well would be really nice. Water heater? Furnace? What other items do you think you’ll want to have running? How many watts will it take to power these appliances? What reasonable alternatives exist?
You’re considering taking on debt for an item that you may choose not to use fully. Take a realistic look at how much you need under various circumstances and then adjust accordingly. As noted earlier, deflation makes debts more expensive.
Good luck with the decision,
Grover
Here’s another possibility for a solar system (in order or priority). It would be less expensive, use power only where it really counts and perhaps include neighbors to solve the community relations problem.
well pump - my shallow well can pump about 1200 gallons on 1 KWhr - 1-2 kw hr per month would be all I needed to save a lot of hauling. Spare parts (or a spare pump) and some spare water line to fix or replace the line (the well is 400 feet from the house) are relatively cheap and could keep the pump going for years. The only challenge would be making repairs without a backhoe - lots of hand digging.
circulating fan and ceiling fan to distribute wood stove heat - mid winter would use would be about 50W x 200 hrs/month = 10 KWhr/month or 0.33 KWhr per day.
Very limited lighting with a few LED lights - perhaps 30 Whr per day.
Limited use of a few power tools. For example, a high quality electric chain saw (assuming gasoline is not available for a gas powered saw) uses about 1 KWhr per hour of use. It would be easy to generate enough power in the summer to use for an hour or two a day. It would be nothing like a good gas powered saw, but a lot better than cutting by hand. Of course this would attract attention and might be available only for AC power.
Refrigeration - widely available models use just over 1 KW hr per day. Expensive brands like Sunfrost use less and can run on DC.
The well could be replaced by a hand pump, but I would need to drill a new well near the house since our shallow well is 400 feet away and down the hill at the edge of the swamp. A hand pump would not pressurize the plumbing system, so some sort of storage tank up in the attic to get at least minimal pressure would be helpful.
These seem to be the applications where a little electricity would go a long way. Most of them could run on DC to remove the cost and limited lifespan issues of an inverter. All but refrigeration would use very little power (the saw might need to be limited to 1 hour per day on sunny summer days) and could get by with a very small low-cost system that is oversized enough so that the reduction in efficiency with time would not be an issue for many years.
Going in with neighbors to create a joint system that can provide power for their well pumps and a few other basics could solve some of the problems associated with being the only one in the neighborhood with power.
Steve
Hello Steve, I am with you in pondering how much Solar I need… but I don’t plan on giving up my Stihl (gas/oil mix) chain saw… .it’s just too critical to my house heating plans. I bought a serious (14 gallon) gasoline storage carboy tank, and have a few extra 5-gallon tanks as well… and this is all about the chain saw.http://www.northerntool.com/shop/tools/product_200325161_200325161
I bought a bunch of extra chains, and am thinking of getting myself a sharpening kit too. I may even buy a second, duplicate Stihl chain saw as a backup. I suppose the electric chainsaw could come in handy as a last resort… but I should be able to get through two winters with the gas I have stored.
Jager06-
As an immediate temporizing solar option I’ve been toying with a smaller complete solar kit like this:
http://www.northerntool.com/shop/tools/product_200441246_200441246
from Norther Tool for $2,000 USD. Seems like better than nothing and better than a 30K debt. Could do the basic smaller tasks listed by others above. When you get your 30K system later you could have this one as a back up or install it at the barn/shop.
Wayne
The excess energy (beyond the two freezers and fridge) is to power tools. To build things with, like welding bicycle frames, or building simple cabinetry. Fixing stuff for other people mostly.I am very aware of the tactical issues surrounding light discipline and saw some highlights of all the American expeditions from Somalia to Iraq. I have a child for each combat tour…haha! (Beats a T-Shirt) Security is paramount, but it cannot happen alone. If I have the fixes for things people find themselves using and breaking and still needing, then I have my place.With a productive and necessary place in society, security becomes more of a social benefit. With my bit of excess electricity, I plan on building more gasifiers, which will generate more electricity, run cars and trucks, which will make more people better off and increase their productivity, security, and well being.
I did buy a single and a two man cross cut hand saw, to back up the four chain saws that I am sure will run out of fuel before I run out of need for firewood.
I like the 1800 watt system shown above. If it really is 1800 watts worth of panels it will meet my minmum calculated emergency needs. I plan on reading over that in the next few minutes to see what it can do!
Best Wishes,
Jager06
EDIT- The 1800 Watt system is a 220 watt system, with an 1800 watt inverter/ charge controller. I don’t think this is a good deal. I need to do more research on smaller systems, but $2k for 220 watts? The total system I am looking at costs $5 a watt, complete including labor and batteries. 220W * $5= $1100. This Northern Tool system is a little rich for the performance.
[quote=Jager06]I like the 1800 watt system shown above. If it really is 1800 watts worth of panels it will meet my minmum calculated emergency needs. I plan on reading over that in the next few minutes to see what it can do!
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It is not 1800W of panels, it is 200W of panels (2x100). It’s an 1800W inverter and total battery capacity of about 2.6kWh (12v110Ah2). So assume you live in a bright sunny place, you might be able to count on 6-7x the rated output of the panels with stationary mounts (that’s about what we are getting right now).
With this system, that means it would take a little more than 2 days of bright shinny weather to charge the batteries from empty (2600Whr/(200*6)). It means that with fully charge batteries and draining them (you never want to do this) you could keep a 12-15cuft energy star freezer running for about 3 days.
This system is pretty small and it’s about $10/W w/battery backup. It seems a bit expensive considering it’s just the equipment and no installation, fancy mounting, etc. Our system ran about $8.25/W w/battery backup (24kWh) and installation.
Something else too keep in mind, I’m not sure this would qualify for any of the incentives - such as the 30% federal tax credit, state incentives, or utility incentives. Those help to lower costs considerably. In our case just the federal and state incentives brought the cost down to just under $5/W, or about 1/2 the price. Without the expensive mounting, it would have been closer to $4/W.
If I were in your shoes I would spend a bit more and get a larger system even if it meant taking out a short term loan. You might also check with some of the vendors, I know last year some of them around us were offering 1 year same as cash.
Jim, I’m with you. I have two 20" bar chainsaws, a smaller electric chainsaw, a 50 gal gas tank and a couple 5 gal cans (actually plastic). Also, I got one of these sharperners:
http://www.northerntool.com/shop/tools/product_351245_351245
They run on 12 V DC and can just plug into a (what used to be called) cigarette lighter in your car or you can use the clips to hook up directly to a battery. Stock up on stones relatively cheaply. Although your first impression, like mine, may be that they are cheaply made, they work great. I also have a fancy hand sharperner, but this is much faster and easier. For $30, its totally worthwhile.
I also have a 1000W generator that I can carry around in the trailer behind my tractor to use the electric saw for tree pruning in places where there’s no electricity. True, this is all rather dependent on gas, but I have enough stored that I can keep cutting for quite a while.
Doug
Don’t mean for this to sound like an advertizement, but the above link is a manual/DCmotor pump that will pressurize you home system. 400 feet is not too far. One of mine is rigged for livestock yet to prove its ability i connceted the outlet to a garden hose which went to a standalone hydrant and back pressurized our house. Outside of the d/c motor i see no place where service would be needed in my lifetime. (i have about 15yrs left)
robie
I think todays $ action is going to seal the deal. That, the price of gold and silver, and now China stopping all oil exports:http://www.zerohedge.com/article/oil-crisis-just-got-real-sinpoec-cuts-oil-exports
And for those of you who, like me, have to cut wood to stay warm, and maybe produce electricity via gasification:
http://www.traditionalwoodworker.com/Log-and-Timber-Saws/products/308/
They also have a booklet that teaches how to set and sharpen hand and chain saws. I grew up cutting firewood and have been running my own chain saw since about 12, but I have never set or sharpened a hand saw.
I will be having the solar company over to finish the site survey this week and hopefully have it all in before interest rates get forced up.
Those of you with access to forest or who use firewood can use some of the trimmings, wood chips and even construction site leftovers to run a generator. Great Britain ran the whole country that way during WW 2. It is relatively simple, you can build it yourself with a small welder and some basic tools. Attaching it to a 5 HP lawnmower, a 12 volt car generators and a charge controller, battery bank and inverter and you have got yourself a home made generator that is completely green.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F258s13UxfY
And to drive down to the farmers market to buy and sell your garden delights?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Ag6LoqcVsM
Best Wishes,
Jager06
Jager06 I get what you are saying. I understand about keeping things going through an emergency, keeping gasoline stored, etc. I suppose I am thinking far more long term than that. I guess I just don’t like putting money into things like solar panels that need so much outside support, repair, and manufacturing to keep it going. I might consider a solar water pump, but even that I think of in terms of “for awhile.” I wouldn’t feel like I had truly solved the problem until a manual pump was also put in. Having worked in technology for a long time, I see that any of its currently popular solutions have one big incredibly glaring disadvantage - they require a functioning society to support them, period. Low-tech now, that shows a lot more promise to my mind (such as the masonry heater mentioned previously, which can be also retrofitted for cooking, baking, and water heating as well.)In my opinion, much of this discussion smacks of “keeping the cars running at all costs” and prioritizing gas-powered devices instead of using our human ingenuity to figure out how to live without it. We will all have to do it at some point. The coming changes will require us to not just adjust to less convenience. It will require us to change our way of thinking about how we live.
I grew up in a remote area, our nearest neighbor was 2 miles away cutting cross country. They had no electricity until they finally put in their solar system and batteries. I took a great interest in this and walked over to check it all out and help where I could. I was a junior in high school at the time.So that was over thirty years ago. The ranch is still running fine. I have been back to speak with the new owners and they have replaced the original batteries about 9 years ago.
The solar system still works, although the trackers have had to be fixed and one of them eventually replaced. The key was never to let the battery bank run down to below 10 Volts. No matter what. That and regular battery maintenance.
Will this too eventually fail? Yep, it sure will. Will another form of energy be replacing the simplistic systems we are developing now? Probably. Look at what Robie has been keeping us all up to date on. Cold Fusion that looks viable and is now being sold into the market place.
But if it doesn’t work, no problem. I have returned home after a few wars and some world travel and adventures. Folks here live remotely. We speak to each other over the gas pumps and at the grocery store. We aren’t afraid of each other and we don’t ignore each other. We help ourselves and we are a community. We don’t need a government solution, we don’t need a manager. We have been miners and loggers since the 1840’s, through boom and bust and bad political ideology and fractional reserve banking. I do not see those independant attributes changing because things got a little tougher for the softies down in the cities, or becasue someone decided to turn the lights out. I don’t see it as keeping the cars going at all costs. Hell, we still have a couple blacksmiths and folks who make their own gunpowder. I see it more as common sense.
Gasifier? Check.
Solar? Coming right up.
Hydropower? Check.
Ability to haul hay, fix tools and run the freezer? Check.
Local ranching and farming? Check.
Community of 20K that “get it” and have a 150 year history of working together through thick and thin? Check.
What part of that doen’t make sense?
Best Wishes,
Jager06
[quote=shudock]The coming changes will require us to not just adjust to less convenience. It will require us to change our way of thinking about how we live.
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While I don’t disagree, it’s the timeline that is the problem. If you believe that sometime in the near future we will come to a dead stop - their will be no gas, no electricity, no manufacturing, in other words the Mad Max scenario then I think you have to prepare to live in an agrarian pre industrial manner.
However, I don’t think the SHTF is the Mad Max scenario. Rather I believe things will get expensive, we will have electricity and gas, just much more expensive and maybe intermittent supplies. So I’m preparting for that reality and watching to see how things play out. Maybe the cold fusion will be a solution, maybe we will get much more innovative/efficient in our use of power… I have no illusion that stuff I buy now will last forever, but I figure it only has to last 10-20 years, which buys time to adjust to the new reality much more gradually.
China exports oil? I thought they were importers.
Exactly!!
I notice an incongruity of thought sometimes in these discussions. For example, folks will prepare for a caveman existance in a post meltdown world, while at the same time worry about having credit card debt. If there is no one to repair our PV systems or maintain the grid or make parts for various devices, then how is B of A going to collect on your VISA card. If there’s no grid, no trucks to deliver for UPS etc., then how is the banking system going to maintain offices and deliver collection notices?
While I think our economy will suffer a major body blow, it will still function though at a much lower, less complex level. We still produce things and grow food. A paradigm shift doesn’t mean the end of civilization.