In my humble opinion it is never too early to move to the country. It’s the right thing to do whether the world crashes or whether it stumbles on for another 20 years.
When we come back to our property after a city run for supplies it is like entering a magical world. I always breath deeply and feel like a burden has been lifted. Sometimes I just stare at the trees. Then the animals come into focus…no greater joy than being approached by a horse who actually likes my company, or watching deer who have figured out that our property is relatively safe.
Then I drive on in and see projects done and not done…things to be proud of and other things to find a solution for. It never ends. Seasonal cycles…there is always more work than we can do, but it’s okay. It’s ours to care for and make better and eventually pass on.
What an honor to be stewards of a tiny speck of God’s creation.
Ray Dalio’s explanation of the market cycles - this is complicated but comprehensive and good. He doesn’t bring all three “E’s” into the explanation but does a good job of discussing one of them, Economy, absent of considerations from Energy and Environment. They only complicate the situation further. This video is worth the watch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pQyMvy797hc
Steve, I thought that video was excellent, and one of the best simplifications I’ve seen. Thanks for posting.
Back in 2008-2009 I had the same thinking, and it hasn’t changed any. We either take the deflationary hit what I was prepared/hoping for) or continue the FED engineered everything bubble. I was especially impressed with how clearly he explains the trap the FED is in, that they can’t stop QE or raise interest rates due to debt levels (corporate, government, personal). The Pareto principle applies: 80% of what’s happening here is due to just a few factors, and all the deep dive into data just confuses things.
One of the problems with “data-driven” analysis regarding the 3-Es you mentioned is even if one gets the science totally right (which is itself total hubris in a world of 3-body problems & Black swans) many irrational things humans create can go on for a very, very long time. Look at the USSR as a good example - an irrational and failed system can hang on for well beyond a single lifetime.