I think that yes, the coral reefs are dying; the water is too warm. But there are areas where the water had been too cold, and now is just right. So all is not lost. But yes, we’re losing it.
Michael_Rudmin wrote:
I think that yes, the coral reefs are dying; the water is too warm. But there are areas where the water had been too cold, and now is just right. So all is not lost. But yes, we're losing it.Gail will be making a new post that kind of sums up why the entire discussion above is not all that to the point. I encourage you to read her post when it comes out this week.
“It’s socialism or bust.” - Salon, insert in this article.
We may as well bust, then, because government-imposed socialism is demoralizing theft and only leads to failing productivity. If the whole word turns to socialism, we will revert to the dark ages.
I see humanity dividing.
If we are to remain a modern, innovating people, then those who only leech from the productive and expect a free ride will have to be in a separate financial system from those who produce, advance, and innovate. Otherwise, the burden of supporting the growing dependent population will outstrip the ability of those who are productive.
The more innovative, productive people are having children at below replacement rate, while less productive people are having many more children than replacement rate. Because of inevitable demographics, this will lead to collapse of a socialist global system. Then, the masses of unproductive people will be in dire straits and the productive people will be gone or cloistered in a small enclave somewhere, away from punishing socialist taxation.
For reference, see South Africa, Zimbabwe, Venezuela, etc.
I would have thought this would be clear to most people here at Peak Prosperity. Odd that this bit from Salon, of all places, was included in a piece here. Am I missing something? I must be.
Could you please explain to me what “productive” means and what “productive” people are “producing” and tie this back into primary natural resources, to support your argument?
Sure, Mark_BC, I can explain…
By productive, I mean people who produce some benefit to society or the financial system, whether that’s the grandma who watches her grandchildren so their mother can go to work and the kids don’t have to go to daycare, the stay at home mom who does a good job educating her kids and instilling values in them that benefit society and produce good citizens, or the working man, or the teacher or the taxpayer, or the innovator or researcher who invents new things, or the artist or author who enriches our lives, the clergy, the LEO or service people who protect society, the students working to prepare themselves for vocations, any sort of people who benefit society and/or contribute to the tax base. The poor and homeless could also be counted in this if they are of good intentions, raise their children with good intent, or otherwise bring joy and value to others in the ways that they can. Legal immigrants who come here to start a business, work in the professions they are trained for, or to get an education to later contribute to our nation and economy are also productive.
What is not productive are people whose goal in life is to game the system and get as much out of it as they can without making any social or financial contributions in turn (like my sister), or illegal immigrants who come here to take advantage of entitlements they’ve not paid into and are unemployable or criminal in nature or intent.
As far as primary natural resources, I assume you mean miners, farmers, water quality specialists, forestry or fishery people, as well as energy and transportation infrastructure? Yes, all the people who work in those fields would also be counted as productive. Productive people are producing a value or service to society, as opposed to those who through opportunism and selfishness, only seek to take from society or worse, to harm the innocent in doing so. Bernie Madoff comes to mind.
Of course, there are those who through disability or health or age are no longer productive in a strict numbers sense (like my mother), but they are not malicious and there should be charity or family to support those who are non-productive through no fault of their own. I hope this answers your question.
In terms of our future declines in Economy, Environment and Energy Flint, Michigan today is one potential future some or most of us will experience. I’ve started a documentary on Netflix that I highly recommend to you to help get your mind around what lies ahead for some of us. The title is “Flint Town” and it’s available on Netflix. It’s told from the perspective of police officers serving the decaying city while their manpower shrinks dramatically. The number of sworn officers in their department has plummeted from 300 to 98 today. Various officers state that they’re sure that no one in US law enforcement has it as bad as they do and I can understand why they feel that way. But I can also tell you from experience that there are other cities where it’s just as bad and even more cities in which certain neighborhoods are just as bad. The only question in my mind is how fast the rest of us get to Flint-like conditions and worse: gradually over decades like Flint, or relatively suddenly like Caracas.
“Welcome to the Hunger Games. And may the odds be ever in your favor.”
OK, that’s a good explanation of what “productive” people do, on a higher level. Since most of those things you mention receive no monetary reward, then why is it that they cannot be part of a socialist system. If anything, you’d think they would flourish as people try to avoid a “punishing taxation system”.
A number of years back, I went through four GE dictaphones in a pretty short period of time. I purchased them because they were inexpensive and locally readily available. Big mistake. After researching a whole line-up of GE products and finding out they were almost all disasters, I vowed I’d never buy GE again. Comparable Sony products lasted 3-4x as long and also had at least double the battery life.
BTW, when researching washers and driers to replace old Sears machines that were over 25 years old, I decided to buy Speed Queen with manual rather than electronic touchscreen controls. So far, so good.
Here’s another one. Had two different Subarus in our family where the head gaskets went south way before 100K miles. Checked around and found that this was an engineering problem with poorly designed head gaskets. The Subaru rep tried to tell me this was a weakness of the flat four engine design. I told her, wrong, VW and Porsche made flat four engine designs for years and never had this problem to this extent. I pushed the issue (having had 5 Subarus in our household) and eventually got Subaru to pony up $500 for the head gasket repairs.
In purchasing various goods and services in recent years, I’ve come to formulate the First Time Failure Law: “In the modern age, NOTHING is done right the first time”. Assume whatever you purchase or have serviced or fixed, there will be a problem. If not, consider yourself very fortunate and having beaten the odds.
There are, in fact, a whole host of truisms I’ve come to embrace in recent years including:
- People are emotion, not rational. Expect them to act accordingly.
- When dealing with governments or corporations, assume they are lying to you unless it can be proven otherwise.
- Whatever level of government you are examining, whether municipal, county, state, federal, or international, assume there is corruption unless it can be proven otherwise.
- Any time your government tells you something is temporary, it’ll become permanent unless it can be proven otherwise.
- Any time governments or corporations tell you something is for your own good, for your safety, for the children, etc., watch out. It’s usually the opposite.
- When registering a complaint to governments or corporations and you’re told, “No one else is having this problem”, assume they are lying and many others are unless it can be proven otherwise.
- When you are in a phone queue and you hear, “Your call is important to us …” realize that is isn’t. Otherwise, they wouldn’t be keeping you on hold forever and playing that infernal music designed to maximally irritate you and hopefully get you to hand up while you wait.
There are others but these come to the top of my head.
Mark_BC, Most of the things I mentioned are jobs with income. Of about a dozen things I mentioned, only about 4 were services to society which were uncompensated. And even then, some of those enable others to have a job which contributes to the tax base.
What kind of society are we envisioning, where people have to try to avoid a punishing taxation system? Not a good one I’d want to live in. You describe a system where everyone is trying to avoid working and contributing to the tax base. Where, then, will all the free stuff for everyone come from?
None of that even matters. Productivity crashes in socialism because why would Bob want to bust his @$$ sweating and working every day when he sees Carl sitting back, fat n happy, doing no work at all, yet benefitting from Bob’s labor? Bob will quit working, just like so many others have throughout history, if the work does not benefit him to any substantial degree more than Carl, who doesn’t work at all.
Socialism is a financial plan that does not fit human nature. Humans have a great sensitivity for unfairness, as do chimps and other high order primates. When one of us gets a bum deal, while others are getting “free” stuff, the situation is untenable and protest happens. In socialism, that protest is to go home, quit working and take up a passtime of perhaps drunkeness or criminal behavior, as demoralized people tend to do. (see Russia)
Socialism has never worked, but people who want free stuff off the backs of everyone else keep trying to implement it. You could point to Europe and say socialism is working there, but look what it’s brought in… Invaders to consume all the benefits without contributing. Look into how many middle-eastern invaders into Germany are employable or employed. Almost none of them. And the people of Europe are starting to protest. Rather than arguing, lets you and I sit back and simply watch what happens in Europe over the next few years. Europe has often been a failed socialism experiment. I don’t see why this time will be any different.
Rodney7777 Wrote:
" McMansions will have to end, replaced by much smaller zero net two story homes whose roofs are a solar collector. "
Net Zero Homes are very expense to build, unless you want to live in a tiny home. FWIW: I am building a near Net Zero of modest size and the cost will be over $500K in a Semi-Rural region (where labor costs are low). I doubt people will be able to afford them. Just to get the foundation, Septic, Well, Power (grid) installed cost about $100K. The SIP roof will cost about $50K for materials & install.
Older folks will have issues in Tiny homes, especially if they are disabled or partial disabled. No way is a disabled person going to be able to use 18"x18" shower stall, or climb a ladder to get into bed.
Solar collector systems aren’t as easy as you think. You need to frequenly fiddle and it needs frequent maintanence. Americans can’t be bother to do basic maintenance like flush their condensing boiler, change the air filter on their heat pump, or clean their gutters (or even call someone to do it for them!). Its getting to point where Americans need to hire someone to change a light bulb.
Rodney7777 Wrote:
" Planned obsolesce will have to end. incorporate that with a combination tractor (for your lawn say) and car or pick up truck that can tow a small RV (your first home in the future) all of which will last for a lifetime."
Sounds like the Homer mobile from the Simpsons! /joking. With the exception of a lawn mower, such a vehicle that can operate as car, a pickup truck, and can tow a RV already exists! Its called the Pick up truck and millions are sold every year. Older trucks have been known to last for decades. A diesel Pickup truck can last 300K or more miles. But sadly purchaing a new Diesel Pickup will cost at least $50K, and they stopped making Pickups with manual trasmissions a few years ago. If your lucky an Automatic will last about 150K miles before it needs to be rebuiltreplaced.
can be done. And, while it may not be net zero, it will be ALOT better than standard. I have been doing retrofit here, on a very low income. I agree that the tiny homes of a couple hundred square feet are not practical. There is a huge range of houses sizes between that and a McMansion. Besides the impracticalities for elderly, if you need to provide for your own needs, you just need more room. It doesnt all need to be heated room, but room to store your canner, sewing machine, cases of home canned foods, etc… is not done in 100sq ft tiny home.
My solar has never needed constant fiddling, actually none at all. That said, it is often not the best or first use of funds, in my mind. Just like insulating the rim joist area of a house, and making or buying warm windows type window coverings is less expensive and makes a house more comfortable and uses less added heat than replacing windows., etc…
The Americans who raised me, my grandparents, lived in a near net zero soddy in northwestern Iowa. I am sure your your techno marvel home is FAR from net zero.
robie robinson wrote:
The Americans who raised me, my grandparents, lived in a near net zero soddy in northwestern Iowa. I am sure your your techno marvel home is FAR from net zero.I have stayed in a few places built with earth, and I have done some retrofit work with earthen walls here, our semi-detached cabin ( Cob ) we did here is very comfortable, heats with a few sticks of wood. If it had more than 1 person in it, just body heat would keep you alright, but a few sticks of wood are nice if you can get it, and it is all over the ground around here. We built those walls by hand using the soil here, onsite. But, given this time and place we did put in windows and a door, salvaged. It has been here doing well for 15 years, never even got around to plastering it. Foundation is stacked rocks, a bit of cement between, since it is cheap and easy at this time and place, but could have just used more cob, it is the fitting of the stones.
But, we also have alot of existing housing stock, so making it more comfortable with some energy retrofit is a good thing. I will blend things, like a pre-existing screen porch with no insulation ( but framed and roofed) we insulated the outer wall with light straw clay, then plastered with mud. back part of garage that we wanted insulated, leave the plywood sheathing, inside infill between the studs with the light strawclay, and plaster the inside with earth plaster.
mntnhousepermi Wrote: “My solar has never needed constant fiddling, actually none at all.”
Solar electric or Hydronic Solar heatingDHW? Do you have a Solar with Batteries, or just using a grid-tied system?
Retrofitting is better than nothing, but has severe limitations. To properly seal the home, it would basically have to be fully gutted, which is more expensive because you pay for the labor to gut it, and the labor to rebuild it back again. A high efficiency home will have very low air leakage.
That said I suspect the majority of home owners don’t have the funds to do a retrofit. A lot of people are underwater with their homes when they bought or upsized during the 2003-2008 housing bubble. Now Home prices are once again “astronomical”, while wages have stagnated or declined.I don’t think most people will spend $30K to $100K to retrofit a home today when the payback is could take as long as 20 years (at current energy prices). Of course you and other PP readers know that sooner or later energy prices will march back up. But the Majority do not.
TechGuy wrote:
mntnhousepermi Wrote: "My solar has never needed constant fiddling, actually none at all."
Solar electric or Hydronic Solar heatingDHW? Do you have a Solar with Batteries, or just using a grid-tied system?
Retrofitting is better than nothing, but has severe limitations. To properly seal the home, it would basically have to be fully gutted, which is more expensive because you pay for the labor to gut it, and the labor to rebuild it back again. A high efficiency home will have very low air leakage.
That said I suspect the majority of home owners don't have the funds to do a retrofit. A lot of people are underwater with their homes when they bought or upsized during the 2003-2008 housing bubble. Now Home prices are once again "astronomical", while wages have stagnated or declined.I don't think most people will spend $30K to $100K to retrofit a home today when the payback is could take as long as 20 years (at current energy prices). Of course you and other PP readers know that sooner or later energy prices will march back up. But the Majority do not.
I have solar electric with batteries, and grid tied, I have had this for 18 or 19 years. The original batteries did need the water checked monthly, bu the newer batteries do not and the new batteries can be run down to nothing without degradation. This system has been very robust, no fiddling.
I also have DHW, a closed loop system with heat transfer at the tank. It is a thermosyphon system, no pump, the hot water panels are lower than the tank ( we raised the tank 2 ft on a wooden platform, the panels are on the ground, leaning against the deck ( deck is 3ft or so from the ground)
While I like the heat given off of floor hydronic heat, that type of system is too expensive for me, too much tech and ripping apart of the house would have been needed. I have beefed up the passive solar gain, and if I wanted more, I would put in a homemade thermal air panel on the south wall, and this is very inexpensive. On the east side of the house there was a screen porch, and I retrofitted the south end of this to be a greenhouse/heat collector by taking off the shingles and putting clear corrugated, and then a wall and door from the larger part of that “room”, this small green house is then at the south-east corner of the house, and by opening a door I can let the heat into the house. This was very inexpensive and more than gives back what was put in. People here pay more just to build a small greenhouse, many houses have a porch or deck area that can be retrofitted this way to a dual use greenhouse/heat, and it is very inexpensive DIY project. Another thing I did, when I replaced the old sliding doors ( These face due magnetic south and open into the main living area) is that I made sure to get sliding doors without low E coating, it did not cost more, I just had to wait for the special order, they are dual pane, etc… People already are replacing old and broken windows and sliders on the south side of their house, the house I live in was built in 1972, houses this old are having money put into them by the owners, might as well, with just a bit of thought, make the house work better while at it ! When flooring is replaced, which it is all the time as old flooring wears out, it can be replaced with flooring with mass in the rooms with the south facing windows. When window coverings get updated, they might as well spend just a bit more and get shades that keep in the heat, and keep out the heat in summer. When the roof wears out and needs replacing, might as well get a roof that helps keep out the summer heat. So, I put on a metal roof with “cool roof” coating under the color coat.
Other retrofit items depend on the location, because of where I live, I found a used, modern, very low emmission wood stove ( it has a catalytic converter) to replace the old one here. The main house is down to 1 cord of wood a winter, my first winter here we bought 4 cords of wood. If I lived back in my previous house, I would consider having it go back to the old way of 2 locations of stand alone heaters, and ditch the central air duct driven central heater that is very wasteful. The cabin here either burns a few sticks of wood or electric heat, and the earthern constructions means that even if the electric is used, it is just a couple Kw hours a day, we have been monitoring and ran it that way for a few weeks in very cold weather.
I dont know why you think people have to spend so much money to energy retrofit, there are many very, very effective measures that are very cheap. That is why I put in the link to the half project and build it solar, to give DIY ideas, and because the charts show the cheapest things done for huge paybacks. One thing I find in the general public, people think insulation and windows, probably because of the companies that look for work doing these things. Air infiltration causes a huge amount of comfort loss and energy loss. This is a DIY project that is very inexpensive. I actual have not finished this as I have had health problems and cannot get on a ladder and caulk the spots need right now. But, I did get the rim joist area done in the crawl space. I actually made the crawl space a conditioned space very cheaply, I hired out the Clean Crawlspace crew to do the vapor barrier part, and I said “no” to every add on, then a local handyman helped me close of the vents and insulate the rim joist area with cut out blocks of ThermaMax insulation and spray foam. Others could do the whole thing themselves, it is not hard and made a huge difference in comfort. Other people with an attic just need to air seal all penetrations under the insulation, and add another layer of insulation, both DIY jobs. In hot areas, getting a roll of radient barrier, and a staple gun and scissors, is only a couple hundred on a larger house to put that across the underside of the roof rafters, no need to wait for when the roof wears out to keep that heat out of the attic !
Swampmama3 wrote:
Socialism has never worked, but people who want free stuff off the backs of everyone else keep trying to implement it.
Hello, i has been visiting this site for some time now, a couple of years, and i have learn a lot, thanks for this great job.
I live in Venezuela, when i read the sentence “It’s socialism or bust” in the post, coming from some who is identified as a political consultant, 32, who probably live in a rich country (thanks to capitalism) i feel like someone walked over my grave, a person who must now about politics, who probably has some knowledge about whats happening in my country right now, and is about my age, and is capable of believe this! obviously has never live in a truly socialist country.
It is not “socialism or bust is” It’s socialism and bust, because a bust is the only final possible to socialism, claim that you can solve de problems of inequality, pollution or anything else with socialism is like cure the flu drinking a lot of cyanide.
My message to anyone who want lo listen, socialism is never a solution, leave nothing good behind, Churchill was absolutely right about it, if you want evidence, spend a week on Bogota, Lima, Quito, even Santiago de Chile, and then visit Caracas, before socialism (and i am not saying that we were a truly free market capitalist country, we had our own portion of leftish and populist politics), million of Colombian, Peruvians, Ecuadorians even thousands of Chileans came to Venezuela looking for a better life, and most found it, now look the situation, thanks to socialism.
I usually does not comments in blogs, i have my own to write my opinions, but i feel so much concern, so bad and worried reading those words that i feel the need to register in this site to post a comment, so please, at least let us to be a warning about the sirens song of socialism, the first of the XXI century, i hope the last one to, but considering how much damage socialism did in the XX century, and today a lot of people think that this is a good idea, i am pessimist about. Thanks