Lyn Alden did a keynote address at the recent bitcoin conference in Las Vegas. But, it does not actually concern bitcoin, but the dynamics of what is happening in “dollar land.” (Chris has reviewed this many times. Lyn presents it in a slightly different language.)
She is an economist focused on why The Big Print must continue.
“Nothing Stops This (fiscal deficit) Train”
A few brief points.
Price of gold is in yellow.
Real interest rates are in black (Real rates = 10Y yield minus the CPI inflation)
Gold and treasuries are the 2 primary reserve assets.
They have decoupled. Something changed in 2022. Something new is happening. Treasuries are no longer attractive as they do not return enough real yield to make people want to buy them. Why should I own treasuries when they don’t return enough yield to outpace inflation?
So what happened about 2022?
6:55 What is the Feds tool to control credit growth? They can raise interest rates. This slows the economy and slows credit growth slows inflation. This makes borrowing less attractive. Raising interest rates slows inflation.
In previous years, when they would raise interest rates it would slow private sector economic expansion (less lending and borrowing) and THIS EFFECT WAS MORE PRONOUNCED THAN THE INCREASE IN FEDERAL DEBT SERVICING COSTS. Not so now!
7:30 Now, the debt level is high. Higher interest rates INCREASE the deficit faster than they decrease the private sector credit growth.
The result is that this breaking mechanism of our fiscal train is no longer effective. The usual tool doesn’t work.
The train has no brakes.
Nothing can stop this train.
They do not have any tools to slow down total credit growth in the system.
Now, interest payments are a very meaningful part of federal expenses.
Another big component is social security. Boomer generation (born 1944-1960) contributed to the fund, but are now retiring and drawing it down. SS funds were put into Treasury Bonds.
SS predicts that they will spend down the 3 Trillion dollars in the SS fund into the economy depleting it by 2035.
The generation that was contributing to the system for 4 decades began to draw down on the SS fund in the late 20teens (2017, 2018). This is when gold and real interest rates decoupled.
Old people vote. (young people protest but forget to vote). So NOT touching SS benefits is a bipartisan issue–neither Red nor Blue will touch this topic.
This last slide it to emphasize the Ponzi nature of the debt accumulation.
12:35 The central banking system relies on constant growth (where have we heard this before?) Like a shark that must keep swimming to remain alive.
Top line is total debt (public and private combined) in the system.
Bottom line is the monetary base.
Total debt fell during the great depression, and again, briefly in 2008 (about 1%). They responded by increasing the monetary base to keep the system afloat.
At 15:10 Lyn goes into her last slides, and I must admit that I don’t understand this well. And it is time for me to go to bed as I work in the morning.
Can someone finish off the last 3 minutes of her talk?
Nothing Stops This Train. The monetary base will continue to grow.